Curry and the Warriors' historic season.

[Mike G]

Do we know which teams dictate the pace? If GS is comfortable at 99 possessions per game, and SA likes to operate at 92, what is the norm for Pace in a game or series between them?

A "slow" team may have outbursts of attack when the odds are better. Does a run-n-gun team have a slowdown option? Have the Warriors proven that it's best to stay on the attack, rather than milk the clock, to preserve a lead?

These 2 are right up there with the '96 Bulls. After adjusting for pace.

[cemitten]

Do we know which teams dictate the pace?

I asked myself this exact question a few weeks ago. Without the technical knowledge to walk through play by play data to track team's pace entering games and finding the resulting pace I logged around 2 weeks worth of games from December this season and tried to look for any proof of teams attempting to dictate the pace of the game. I compared difference of a teams pace entering the game to their pace in that game to the average pace from the year. There was a very slight negative trend (slow teams playing fast teams, played faster than normal). Obviously 2 weeks of games ins't enough to make any definitive declarations, but I couldn't find any proof of teams definitely trying to affect the pace of games.

[fpliii]

Do we know which teams dictate the pace? If GS is comfortable at 99 possessions per game, and SA likes to operate at 92, what is the norm for Pace in a game or series between them?

A "slow" team may have outbursts of attack when the odds are better. Does a run-n-gun team have a slowdown option? Have the Warriors proven that it's best to stay on the attack, rather than milk the clock, to preserve a lead?

These 2 are right up there with the '96 Bulls. After adjusting for pace.

Assuming there are no deliberate slowdown/speed-up attempts for the matchup (the former being a risky strategy befitting underdogs according to Oliver), how does something like pace_team1 + pace_team2 - pace_lg sound for an estimate?

[Nate]

...
Assuming there are no deliberate slowdown/speed-up attempts for the matchup (the former being a risky strategy befitting underdogs according to Oliver), how does something like pace_team1 + pace_team2 - pace_lg sound for an estimate?

I don't like that assumption. For example, I'm pretty sure that the Cavaliers deliberately (and rightly) slowed things down the finals last year.

That said, pace only varies by 10%, so if pace is an intrinsic team property, I'd expect a linear approximation to work reasonably well. (You might want to use something fancier if one team had twice the pace of another.)

[Mike G]

Since the first 10 games of the season, it's not been just about the Warriors.
Chart is of cumulative (ORtg-DRtg), SOS adjusted, just for games 11-37 (x axis 1-27)
The Clippers aren't "there", but they're closing fast.

[Mike G]

I heard the Clippers are "the hottest team in the NBA", didn't catch the "since when".
After 28 games and a 10 point loss to the Rockets, they've since lost (by 1) to the Spurs (best team in history?) and won 8 straight.
Blake Griffin has missed the last 7 games, and Josh Smith is also MIA. Who has stepped up? From the first 28 games to the last 9, these differences are observed:

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. LAC        MPG    TS%  TRb%   Ast%  Stl%  Blk%   TO%   Usg%  ORt  DRt  GmSc
Mbah aMoute 13.8   .109   -.5   -1.1    .1   1.6   10.1  -1.5    2   -1   2.2
Paul         5.8  -.018   2.7    8.2   -.4    .6   -3.2   5.8    5   -2   3.8
W Johnson    5.2  -.106    .8    3.2    .3    .1     .3   2.3  -10   -5    .5
Redick       4.6   .089   1.1   -2.2    .5   -.2    -.2   1.3   13   -2   3.5
Jordan       1.1   .127   2.3    1.7   -.4    .0    1.0   -.3   21   -2   3.2

Pierce        .0   .119   3.5    2.3    .7   1.7   -4.5   7.6   22   -6   5.0
Crawford    -1.9   .039    .0   -5.1   -.4    .0    -.3   3.8    4   -3    .6
Rivers      -7.3   .201   -.6    1.0   -.1   -.6   -4.9   5.8   32   -3   6.3
Stephenson  -8.6  -.001    .2   -2.8    .5   -.4    4.0   3.4   -8   -4  -1.1
Griffin    -26.7  -.203   1.2   -2.4   -.3   -.1    5.6  -1.6  -34   -7 -11.6

MPG is per team game. Griffin played 2 bad games before sitting down.
Rivers and Pierce have the biggest GmSc jumps, but they've missed 3 and 2 games, respectively.
For TO% and DRtg, minus values are improvements.
DeAndre is on a 9-game streak of making at least half his FT !

EDIT: Those minutes do not add up: Prigioni and Aldrich both have upped their mpg by about 12 in the last 9 games. Both have fabulous ORtg-DRtg.
Before, they hardly played.

[Mike G]

Snapshot from the b-r.com forecast page, simulated chance of going to/winning the Finals:

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West    Go   Win     East    Go   Win
SAS   .553  .493     Cle   .315  .063
GSW   .351  .294     Ind   .157  .027
OKC   .072  .048     Tor   .149  .021
LAC   .020  .009     Bos   .108  .015

Pretty sure that yesterday, the Spurs' chance of winning the title was >50% -- and all they did since was beat the Cavs.
There's a 27% chance the East will send someone other than these 4 to the Finals. The Hornets have a 3% chance, and they're not even in the playoffs right now.

[Mike G]

b-r.com now likes Spurs' chance to win it all, by more than twice the chance they give GSW.

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West    #1   WConf  WFin
SAS   .478   .584   .520
GSW   .521   .305   .244

Dubs' lock on the top seed is a distant memory.

Spurs are now better than any historic team by .50 SRS PPG.
Dubs have fallen to 9th all-time -- just below last year's version.
http://bkref.com/tiny/t8crP

EDIT: one day later

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West    #1   WConf  WFin
SAS   .527   .598   .538
GSW   .473   .292   .237

Spurs now twice as likely to win the West, 2.3 times as likely to win the title.
They're now .9 points SRS better than the '71 Bucks, a full PPG better than the '96 Bulls.

[Mike G]

After 43 games each:

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tm     W      #1    Conf   Ring
GSW   67.6   .603   .351   .303
SAS   66.6   .397   .563   .512

GSW are 21% more likely to take the top seed.
SAS are 21% more likely to win the WC/title.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fri ... f_prob.cgi

Spurs now 1.18 ppg better than anyone before.
Dubs back up to #5, but well back of the top 4.
http://bkref.com/tiny/nydsr

I'm seeing clues that both teams are significantly better than they are portrayed by SRS. They could be running up scores, but they're resting their main guys.

[Mike G]

Yesterday the Spurs were about 50/30 more likely to win it all.

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tm      #1    WCF    Fin
GSW   .823   .475   .420
SAS   .177   .450   .405

Spurs still have the best SRS ever, but only by .24 ppg
GS now at #4, .08 behind the '96 Bulls.

[Mike G]

Dead heat*.

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tm    #1   Conf   All
GSW  .882  .468  .407
SAS  .118  .459  .407
OKC  .000  .056  .038
LAC  .000  .014  .007

Cle  .803  .367  .069
Tor  .195  .218  .032
Bos  .001  .163  .019
Ind  .000  .090  .009
Atl  .000  .067  .004

This is every team given more than 1/1000 odds of winning the title.
*[The Heat aren't actually dead, as they got .001 chance this morning.]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fri ... f_prob.cgi

Warriors are currently 47-4, projected to go 23-8 the rest of the way. Their worst finish in 7500 simulations is 62-20 -- implying 15-16 down the stretch. Could they possibly turn into a .500 team?
They are 9-1 in games decided by 5 or less (or overtime).
Should their fortunes be reversed, they might go 1-9 in their next 10 close ones; then, 14-7 in the rest would do the trick.
But that's a perfect confluence of (a) bad luck and (b) a serious slump.

[Mike G]

Steph was pretty good last night, but according to Game Score, it was only his 4th best game this year.
The count of players' games with GmSc of 30 or greater:

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GmSc > 30
19  Curry
9   Harden
8   Westbrook
5  Cousins, Paul
4  Butler, Durant, Lillard, K Walker, Wall
3  A Davis, R Jackson, Lowry
2  Antetokounmpo, Drummond, George, Dr Green, Griffin, Horford, B Knight, I Thomas
1  Afflalo, Aldridge, Carmelo, Bledsoe, Kobe, Covington, M Gasol, P Gasol, Gay, Dwight, LeBron, B Lopez, McCollum, Oladipo, Redick, Teague, Thornton, Towns, Vucevic, L Williams

Not only does Curry have more such outbursts than any 2 other players, he has as many as the total list of players with just 1.
http://bkref.com/tiny/ti6B9
LeBron's 19th best is 22.9

[Mike G]

As good/unbeatable as the Warriors seem to be lately, their chance of winning it all is now barely 1/3, according to b-r.com

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West  #1   Conf   All     East  #1   Conf   All
SAS  .059  .468  .394     Cle  .922  .395  .106
GSW  .941  .431  .354     Tor  .078  .182  .034
OKC        .068  .040     Bos        .138  .024
LAC        .028  .012     Atl        .112  .016

Do these numbers superficially resemble some Presidential primaries?

[permaximum]

After a long time, I watched an NBA game live. (Here, NBA games are generally played at 2:00 - 5:30am local time) It was GSW-SAS obviously.

We witnessed how Stephen Curry - 23rd best player of all time according to ESPN - was shut down when you begin defending him tightly "a few feets outside of the 3-point line". He had to shoot absurd threes with at least one hand on his face. At first, I thought his decent ball-handling would allow him to penetrate inside and score layups or provide open looks for other players. However that wasn't how things played out.

If I didn't watch the game I would think it was just an off night for Steph. In reality, it wasn't about him being off or on. It was about his lack of offensive creativity and diverse skillset compared to other great scorers in the NBA history. A prime Jordan, Kobe, T-mac, Iverson, Carter, Pierce, Dominique, even Arenas and some wouldn't be shut down by covering one aspect of their game.

Obivously this game will be analysed by other team staffs to teach their players how to deal with the likes of Curry but only a few teams will do enough to stop him like this. Curry will continue to be the big brother of the regular-season playground and score with insane efficiency but come deep playoffs he's going to struggle agains to teams like Spurs again. Hopefully Iguadala and Klay Thompson will be there to save him.

[permaximum]

In February, Oscar Robertson:

If I've got a guy who's great shooting the ball outside, don't you want to extend your defense out a little bit?" the 77-year-old Big O said Thursday during a phone interview on ESPN's Mike & Mike show. "I just don't think coaches today in basketball understand the game of basketball. They don't know anything about defenses. They don't know what people are doing on the court. They talk about analytical basketball and stuff like that

Spurs did exactly what Robertson described in a few words. But you know the media bashed him because they have to polish and offer Curry as the biggest star we haven't seen in years. To help with the declining popularity of NBA, instead of offering pseudo-league carriers, NBA and it's media should analyse what's wrong with the todays game by watching the old tapes of 80s and 90s, at first.