APBRmetrics

Here is another one:

http://hardwoodparoxysm.com/2016/08/31/ ... w-podcast/

Listening to pods (meh and less than meh) and thinking from and pretty independent of them:


Is Giannis just neutral on D at PG or worse? Can cross matching be done well?

Ever get to average from 3 pt land? Generally dislike PGs who can't hit a 3.

Can you double off any big if Giannis or Middleton get started to the rim? Probably.

Jabari "good on baseline"... in general or dependent on lineup, clock part, situation, assigned position, play calls? Give him the max? Ha ha, that is funny. Big expectations... why? He played a lot more in 2016 than the first 2 months but at about the same overall level, including awful rebounding.

"Put Middleton in corner"? I dunno but instinctively feel No!

Monroe with second unit? Try it.

Dellavedova without LeBron? Was he really that much "with"?

Improve defensive rebounding? And try to run more? Sounds difficult.

Cap management? Barely survivable or past saving?

What gets Kidd fired? One more bad season or 2-3? Or trade / move on from MCW, Monroe, Parker, Henson and maybe more before you get to Kidd? Eventually many players will move but good chance not quick enough to make playoffs this season.

Giannis' contract is a huge leap of faith. His stats to date do not justify it. The change from yr 2 to 3 is not that impressive.

The only team strength on 4 factors is forced turnovers and the rest of defense is bad enough that I'd have to assume this "strength" is actually causing harm elsewhere and really isn't that much of a legit strength, just a focus and habit.

My sense is that this team needed far more player changes and the changes made are not that promising.

Their cap situation has gone from bad to worse and re-signing Parker will be another nail. They should try to trade almost everyone eventually to have much chance of not being stuck below good enough to win a round or two.

You probably haven't read kevin pelton's article on this issue.You're way off the mark.
http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_ ... -bucks-nba

To date, pretty much all the metrics say he is only slightly above average overall and not great at anything. I'll try to read the article but it won't change those facts. Potential? Yeah use that, because you have to. Lots of overdone deals so this one isn't unusual. But it is a leap of faith.

He does look better if you leave out shot defense or super-reward assist / rebound combinations.

Giannis on court last season, team wins 39.7% of stint minutes. Off court? 42.4%.

Read the article. Weird that Schoene is so wildly different than stats / metrics to date. but I guess it is projecting 2-3 years into future, not next season and has its beliefs about aging and similars. We'll see.

Schoene wins estimate measures production not per minute productivity. Super high minutes and high responsibilities / opportunities and yeah you will get a higher number.

"After the All-Star break, the Bucks put the ball in Antetokounmpo's hands as a point forward, and..."
went 11-17. A small detail to leave out. A team win % slightly worse than what preceded it, despite going to a heavier eastern team schedule and facing more teams that had sorta given up.

What did Schoene project for Giannis in year 3 based on year 1 and 2 and did he meet the projection, exceed or did he underachieve? I am guessing he might have underachieved per minute and might again. But what is the answer, Kevin or anybody else?

By winshares / 48 minutes and RPM Giannis made miniscule gains from yr 2 to 3. But he is going to burst ahead massively now?

Giannis is young and intriguing; but he is not a sure thing for greatness. If the aging curve was instead an experience curve would he be calculated as being as likely to improve massively after nearly 7,500 minutes?

To date, his greatness strength is getting to line. But the ft rate is treading down and the ft% is well below league average.

Last fall ESPN projected a big jump in Giannis' RPM estimate to 2.5 for 2015-16. Instead he went from 0.9 to 1.1. I can't see Schoene yet. (I think Doolittle's WARP projection for 2014-15 exceeded actual too. I think it expected more from him in year 2 than the 2016-17 projections and beyond do.) Cite a projection? Try to check its track record. Help out wth the data, please Kevin.

All pretty much moot, now

Yeah. RPM estimates suggest Middleton was by far the best player. Monroe possibly 2nd from a multi -yr perspective and in close contention based on last season only. Now Giannis will get even more of the press and pressure. He might achieve more without Middleton. With Middleton, as I said before, was nothing special yet. Now they will go even further with building around Giannis. That might make Middleton's return and return to past impact more difficult. Might.

Crow wrote:Read the article. Weird that Schoene is so wildly different than stats / metrics to date. but I guess it is projecting 2-3 years into future, not next season and has its beliefs about aging and similars. We'll see.

Schoene wins estimate measures production not per minute productivity. Super high minutes and high responsibilities / opportunities and yeah you will get a higher number.

"After the All-Star break, the Bucks put the ball in Antetokounmpo's hands as a point forward, and..."
went 11-17. A small detail to leave out. A team win % slightly worse than what preceded it, despite going to a heavier eastern team schedule and facing more teams that had sorta given up.

I thought win% is an unreliable metric and ptdiff is the most reliable to judge team performance.
But we're not talking about team performance here but for a specific player.
Check his On/Off numbers after the All star break,also his PER and BPM and you will see why giannis was among the top 20 NBA players after the All Star break.Whole year RPM can't pick up that.

I don't use PER hardly at all and am not very comfortable with BPM (especially when assists or rebounds are high or low or both extreme, which is a lot of the time and even apart from that it fails to provide accurate individual shot defense). On /off after all-star break? Small sample raw plus-minus? I'll check it when I find it or you provide it but it is not reliable at face value raw plus minus and for far less games. I'll rely on RPM much more. Might be able to back into RPM for post all-star if I saved copy from earlier or can find it on way back machine.

Win% of stints on floor isn't enough by itself but it another way to view and can add new perspective. Winning your times on court is not some esoteric thing. Team performance with a player (and without) is a piece I am going to include whether others were talking about it or not. Team performance is my main focus. If a player is not much on influencing that positively, I am not that impressed with him or his signing.

By RPM estimate Giannis ranked 98th last season and that is his best mark yet. Anyone including the Bucks staff can ignore or look past that based on other data & metrics or disposition toward RPM estimates if they want to go that way. But I am generally going to use RPM pretty heavily unless there is signal it is out of line with everything else. In this case it mostly lines up with what I use most and makes views that are higher based on other things look too high to me or at least not solid / indisputable. That is the nature of analysis with overall metrics or eye tests. It is the rare popular "star" or "superstar" who doesn't do well on RPM. When they don't, I find there is usually a pretty good case to support the RPM estimate, but that is opinion.