2017 MVP tracker

[Mike G]

Russell Westbrook leads the league by a wide margin in VORP. With 5.2 showing at b-r.com, he's some 24% ahead of James Harden's 4.2

Last season, 5.2 vorp would have been 10th most -- ahead of Draymond Green and Paul George -- and we aren't even halfway through this season.
He's on a pace, after 37 games, to finish with 11.5 vorp.

Only 3 player-seasons have reached that total: LeBron'09, Jordan'88 and '89.
If Westbrook misses some games or slows down, he could still have the 4th best vorp-season ever; current #4 is another LeBron year at 10.9
http://bkref.com/tiny/yavle

Harden is the Win Shares leader at 7.7 -- extrapolated to 82 games, that is 16.6 WS, just better than his league high 16.4 in 2015.
Just 13 players have reached 16.5 WS in a season since 1980:

# - 16.5 WS
9 - Jordan
4 - Robinson
3 - LeBron
2 - Barkley, Durant, Shaq, Paul
1 - Curry, Duncan, Garnett, Magic, K Malone, Dirk

[Mike G]

xyz = ((PER-5.75)*(WS/48)*(BPM+5.25))^(1/3)

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xyz     mvp?    G   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   mvp%   ring  xMin
4.76 Westbrook 39   1350   30.4   .222  14.4   .068   .001   175
4.52   Harden  40   1464   28.0   .268  10.2   .584   .102   173
4.22   Durant  39   1350   27.2   .272   7.6   .142   .441   155
4.36   Giannis 36   1247   28.2   .247   9.7          .008   154
4.68   Paul    33   1035   27.6   .299  10.4   .028   .022   150

3.87   Lowry   38   1423   25.9   .229   7.3   .017   .151   146
3.90   Butler  38   1392   25.9   .248   6.6          .001   145
4.06   LeBron  34   1263   26.7   .226   8.9   .085   .112   144
4.12   Kawhi   36   1199   27.1   .264   7.2   .027   .137   143
3.58   A Davis 37   1371   28.3   .202   4.8          .000   132

3.52   Curry   39   1315   23.6   .220   5.9   .030   .441   128
3.54   Cousins 37   1275   27.1   .177   6.5          .000   126
3.71   Thomas  34   1148   26.8   .242   4.8   .008   .011   126
3.37   Gobert  40   1333   21.5   .237   5.0          .006   123
3.09   Love    33   1062   23.6   .213   2.5   .010   .112   101

This is everyone in the top 10 in either PER, WS, or VORP.
B-R.com chance for team to win the title is shown as ring.
Final column is sqrt(Min)*xyz, basis of ranking.

[Mike G]

Race is tightening, according to b-r.com

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.mvp?   mvp%   Win%   Pts   Reb   Ast   WS   VORP
Harden  .386  .694   28.6   8.2  11.6   9.5   5.4
Durant  .287  .848   26.2   8.4   4.7   9.4   4.1
Leonard .074  .800   25.5   5.7   3.2   8.1   3.4
Westy   .067  .587   30.7  10.7  10.4   6.9   6.5
LeBron  .059  .682   25.6   7.9   8.4   6.7   3.9

Curry   .047  .848   24.6   4.2   6.2   6.9   3.1
Paul    .033  .638   17.5   5.3   9.7   6.7   3.4
Thomas  .015  .600   29.1   2.8   6.2   6.9   2.5
Lowry   .014  .609   22.4   4.8   6.9   7.6   3.8
Butler  .011  .489   24.9   6.6   4.8   8.7   3.7

Others in the top 10 in Win Shares: Gobert, Jokic, Giannis.
Among the top 10 in VORP: Giannis, Cousins

[Mike G]

Suddenly a 2 man contest.

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prob    per G:   Pts   Reb   Ast  Win%
.358   Harden   28.8   8.2  11.5  .686
.313   Durant   26.3   8.4   4.7  .854
.074   LeBron   25.7   8.0   8.5  .696
.063  Westbrook 30.8  10.6  10.2  .583
.060   Curry    25.0   4.3   6.1  .854

.050   Leonard  25.4   5.7   3.2  .766
.028   Paul     17.5   5.3   9.7  .625
.020   Thomas   29.1   2.8   6.3  .617
.016   Lowry    22.9   4.8   6.9  .604
.009   Butler   24.5   6.6   4.7  .490

[Mike G]

on this day ...

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prob   per G    Pts   Reb   Ast   win%
.331  Durant   26.1   8.4   4.9   .860
.322  Harden   28.7   8.2  11.4   .679
.078  Curry    25.4   4.3   6.3   .860
.077  LeBron   25.7   8.0   8.6   .688
.054  Leonard  25.5   5.8   3.3   .776
.049 Westbrook 30.7  10.4  10.3   .560
.029  Thomas   29.7   2.7   6.4   .633
...

[J.E.]

Somewhat awkward timing given that Curry is averaging 37/8.3/5.6/2 on 22 FGAs over his last 3 games

[Mike G]

A week ago, Curry was 6th on this list, with 4.7% chance, according to the b-r.com algorithm.
He's now distant 3rd at 7.8% -- Westbrook in the 6 slot.

A recent writeup at Yahoo Sports says:

Serious conversation over the NBA’s 2016-17 MVP candidates focuses on a few players — ..., including Isaiah Thomas and LeBron James ... For the most part, though, only Harden and Westbrook have registered as likely winners. They’re putting up stats we’ve never seen before and carrying their teams to better-than-expected records and playoff seeds.

It might be time to add Kawhi Leonard ...

Basically, those listed above, other than Warriors.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/kawhi-leon ... 44462.html

If there's a strong Durant vs Harden struggle, Westbrook might slip in after all?

[Dr Positivity]

Oddsmakers have it as an effective two man race in Harden and Westbrook, hard to ignore threat of Isaiah 30ppg on potential #1 seed though even if he wouldn't deserve it

[Mike G]

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Yesterday's Top Performers
2-11-17          Pts  Rb  As   GmSc
Russell Westbrook 47  11   8   30.9
James Harden      40   6   8   29.9
Stephen Curry     26   8   9   27.4
LeBron James      27   5  12   25.7
Kevin Durant      34   9   3   24.3

Precisely the top 5 MVP candidates?