Near future for the Lakers?

[Crow]

Looking at winshares per 48 minutes in rookie season for last 11 years Ingram grabbed 622nd place out of 811. The only "big names" who did worse were Schroder, LaVine, Mudiay, Nogueira and Randle. Looking at the 200 just above Ingram (the 3rd quartile down from best) I found a couple dozen prominent names but the vast majority were mostly meh to awful in their later careers. Russell only modestly better than Ingram. So they had Clarkson, he regressed badly in year 2 but they paid him pretty big anyways and he stalled there in year 3. They now can gamble Randle, Russell and Ingram are worth their pick / sunk value or move one or more. I would probably move one or more. It is too much gambling on youth, youth that all stumbled badly out of the blocks. In year 2 Russell is still performing at sub-replacement level by Winshares / 48, Randle the leader but not yet to league average. I certainly don't feel good right now about sinking most of the cap into those four in a few years. I wouldn't give any of them big money without drastic improvement. Unless they get a lot better that core isn't even a .500 team in a few years and realistically is probably 5-7 years from doing anything notable, if ever. At this point they are a far worse version of the TWolves.

[jgoldstein34]

This has to have been a rough season for Lakers fans after such a promising first 20 games. If they lose their pick this year, it's going to be a long season next year.

I was never very high on Ingram so maybe this is just confirmation bias, but I really think they should trade him now or next season before his value drops too far. Even if he gets stronger, I think he's probably like Trevor Ariza or Rudy Gay, which is a fine player, but not the star that LA keeps searching for. It's really hard to be good as a 19 year old in the NBA, but Ingram was historically bad. He has a very very long way to go to being a starter.

Randle has actually improved quite a bit, he's certainly not a star, but he's a solid NBA starter. 16.3 PER and 0.0 BPM are pretty good. His -1.8 RPM is concerning, but it's certainly an improvement. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but I seem to remember seeing that the team did pretty well with him at center, at least of offense. If he can keep his turnovers down and figure out a respectable 3pt shot (like 33-34%) he can be a real piece going forward.

Russell is so hard to figure out. He was pretty good once they moved him more off ball at the end of the year, but he's just atrocious on defense. I'd say his overall impact is probably around that of Randle at this point (15.3 PER, -0.5 BPM, -1.7 RPM) so there is a player in there somewhere, but he just has a lot of work to do, mostly on defense, to get to where he's a real player.

I'd say Russell is the most likely to be an all-star at some point, but not with much confidence. This is just a really poor core 3 to have after being bad for the past few seasons. I wouldn't want to commit any serious money to any of these guys without seeing major improvement. I really do think that Walton is a good coach, but he has been dealt a pretty terrible hand to play with. I'd expect them to be like a 30 win team next year, unless they somehow convince a major free agent to join which would be shocking at this point.

If I put the over under at this current core resulting in 0.5 all-stars, what side would people take? Curious because I know I'm lower on most of their prospects than other people I talk to. I'd go under.

[Crow]

Ingram shot better from 2 pt land after the all-star break but he didn't improve much elsewhere, turned it over more and continued to shoot a lousy FT%.

[Crow]

For guys drafted in top 5, Ingram had the worst rookie ws/48 in 50 years. I'd check other metrics but BR's draft finder doesn't use any others.

[shadow]

Defensive winshares are heavily influenced by team defense as noted here:

http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.bl ... etely.html

Not saying Ingram was an elite defender or anything, but the Lakers being essentially tied for worst in team defensive efficiency didn't do him any favors.

[Crow]

True.

But DRPM tries to isolate individual defensive impact and he rates as 4th weakest among SFs. Weakest on overall RPM.

[jgoldstein34]

On one hand, he was 19 this year and the history of 19 year olds in the league is that they're not good. That being said, he was one of the worst teens in the NBA ever. I don't want to kill him as a prospect just because he is so young and there's so much time for him to improve, but just starting from such a low point... hard to see a future all-star there at this point.

[shadow]

He also played on a team littered with offensive black holes in Williams, Young, Clarkson and Randle. You could possibly make a case for throwing Russell in that group as well. The Lakers ran the 6th most isolation plays in the league and were 4th lowest in assists per 100 possessions as well as potential assists. They were simply not a team that excelled at creating shots for their teammates. Ingram obviously needs to bulk up a bit so he can play through contact and develop his outside shot, but Walton also needs to get them to run some semblance of an offense instead of playing hero ball constantly.

[Mike G]

In the last 5 years, 100 rookies have gone at least 1056 minutes.
http://bkref.com/tiny/Y2d8k
Among these, Ingram ranks 96th in WS/48 (-.007), ahead of only Mudiay, Rivers, Whitehead, and Levine.
In BPM (-3.8) he ranks 84th. So roughly 4 times as many look worse, than with WS.

His PER (8.5) is 87th. Draymond is #97!
Ingram started half his games, so his numbers could be bumped up relative to most other rookies.

[Crow]

Of the name guys who were bad as rookies I'd check how quick they started ascending. I assume most in year 2. At this point I'd give him at least part of next year.

They said no to trading him for Cousins? I would have said yes even if I then possibly traded Cousins later. Jeanie was too hands off, waited too long and their future is really screwed up. Heard Pelinka with Woj and heard absolutely nothing about team play direction. He highlighted "communication" and communication of players with / from front office. Should be with coach unless not working.

[shadow]

Here are the NPI RAPMs for the second year of guys I listed earlier. I also used NPI RAPM for their rookie years.

Kevin Durant: -4.32
Chris Bosh: 1.14
Dwight Howard: 1.81
Mike Conley: -0.64
Kevin Love: 0.39
John Wall: -1.12
DeMarcus Cousins: -0.32
Gordon Hayward: -1.57
Kemba Walker: -2.03

Everyone except Durant improved a fairly significant amount in year 2.

[Crow]

Thanks for that and the other look up on undefeated finals matchups.

[jgoldstein34]

My thought on the RAPM improvement is that for every player who improved in their 2nd year and went on to become an all-star, there's just as many who didn't and fell out of the league. It's certainly not impossible for Ingram to become a good player one day, I just wouldn't want to bet a franchise on it considering how low a point he's starting from.

[shadow]

Rookie deals are dirt cheap though. You're hardly betting the franchise on a guy who is only guaranteed 10 million his first two years. The third and fourth years on his deal are team options. Even if you pick up the first option year to give him a chance to prove he's not a total flop, you've hardly crippled yourself from a salary cap perspective. Also, since rookie deals are relatively cheap compared to the hyper-inflated salaries in this new cap era, it's hard to trade a young player for anything of value unless you bundle multiple assets together.

[jgoldstein34]

From what reporting made it sound like, they could have had DeMarcus Cousins if they had been willing to include Ingram in a deal. Say what you will about Cousins, but he's a legitimate star player. I hope Ingram becomes a good player, but that seems like gross negligence by the front office.

You're right, saying bet the franchise on him was a poor choice of words on my part. That isn't really my point though, it's mostly that reasonable expectations for him after his first year are not as high as where I'd think he's trade value around the league would be. My model projects him to be -3.3 per 100 possessions next year after being -4.2, in my player value metric, this past season. Improvement, but still a long ways to go to become replacement level let alone a rotation player in the NBA.

I worry that it may be punishing him a bit harshly for playing on such a bad team with no floor spacing, but even his FT% is super concerning for a guy who's supposed to be a scorer and shooter.