2017 NBA Draft Models

[Crow]

Ben Simmons A/TO against low-major teams (according to Draftexpress): About 3.2 to 1. Against power conferences, less than 1.4.

From DX writeup: "Opponents were able to neutralize him very effectively in the half-court as the season moved on, simply backing five feet off him. Simmons would respond by getting very passive in turn - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Ben-Simmons-61928/ ©DraftExpress

Is he strong enough / skilled enough to post effectively in NBA against non-short defenders? I have doubts about that early.

[bondom343]

Not much in the way of statistics but Jonah Bolden interests me. Solid numbers in the Adriatic league projected currently 2nd round, some saying he could and should be higher. Won the rising star award, also won by Saric, Jokic, and Zizic. Hoping OKC can get into the 2nd round and get him possibly as a shooting forward.

[jgoldstein34]

I think Bolden should go early 2nd, but given that he's a bit older than Saric and Jokic were as draft prospects, I'm not sure I see him getting drafted higher than the late 20's.

[mrichards]

Ben Simmons A/TO against low-major teams (according to Draftexpress): About 3.2 to 1. Against power conferences, less than 1.4.

From DX writeup: "Opponents were able to neutralize him very effectively in the half-court as the season moved on, simply backing five feet off him. Simmons would respond by getting very passive in turn - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Ben-Simmons-61928/ ©DraftExpress

Is he strong enough / skilled enough to post effectively in NBA against non-short defenders? I have doubts about that early.

Obviously, he will need to show some semblance of a jump shot.

Anyway, I am curious to get thoughts / opinions on who the Sixers should take at 3? (Assuming Fultz and Ball go 1 and 2)

[jgoldstein34]

I think they should try and trade down to 5 with the Kings or 6 with the Magic and take Malik Monk plus pick up a late 1st or early 2nd round pick. If they really believe in Simmons as a primary creator, than they should try and get a good shooter and potentially secondary creator. Monk can be played at PG if Simmons is the primary ball handler. Whatever they do, I think they need to come out of the draft this season with the PG of their future, even if it's someone like Monk who could just play the position and not actually be a traditional PG. It seems that the 2018 and 2019 draft's don't really have any high level PG prospects.

[Dr Positivity]

Still some players to get to but current top 14

1 - Josh Jackson
2 - Lonzo Ball
3 - Anzejs Pasecniks
4 - Jawun Evans
5 - Dennis Smith
6 - Mathias Lessort
7 - T.J. Leaf
8 - Jordan Bell
9 - Thomas Bryant
10 - Markelle Fultz
11 - Sindarious Thornwell
12 - Jayson Tatum
13 - Jonathan Isaac
14 - OG Anunoby

[Crow]

Wow. You sure aren't directed by groupthink, right or wrong or some of both.

[Crow]

DX can do and not do what it wants but is it looking to do some version of a draft analytic model article like the past couple of years? Anybody offer them stuff or still plan to? Not much time left.

[Statman]

DX can do and not do what it wants but is it looking to do some version of a draft analytic model article like the past couple of years? Anybody offer them stuff or still plan to? Not much time left.

I don't think so. The pendulum publicly on twitter seems to have swung back to almost solely talking about scouted attributes - which is weird because many of the models outperformed draft position based on the ones that showed retrodictions (assuming they didn't cheat of course). Some will post some synergy stuff, but those are isolated data groupings often involving small sample sizes & no accounting for comp.

I believe most of the modelers a couple years ago got jobs with teams or just stopped. It does not look like I'll be paid to be quiet this year - I expect to hit twitter a TON & post my model 3 days before the draft. Updated/revised/improved 19 year retrodiction should be later this week - probably Friday because there's always stuff I decided to add last minute when I work a big project that adds a day or two.

[mrichards]

Still some players to get to but current top 14

1 - Josh Jackson
2 - Lonzo Ball
3 - Anzejs Pasecniks
4 - Jawun Evans
5 - Dennis Smith
6 - Mathias Lessort
7 - T.J. Leaf
8 - Jordan Bell
9 - Thomas Bryant
10 - Markelle Fultz
11 - Sindarious Thornwell
12 - Jayson Tatum
13 - Jonathan Isaac
14 - OG Anunoby

Interesting to see Bell and Thornwell among top 14 as well. I am curious how / where Swanigan rates.

Also, how has your Model performed on International players historically?

[Dr Positivity]

Still some players to get to but current top 14

1 - Josh Jackson
2 - Lonzo Ball
3 - Anzejs Pasecniks
4 - Jawun Evans
5 - Dennis Smith
6 - Mathias Lessort
7 - T.J. Leaf
8 - Jordan Bell
9 - Thomas Bryant
10 - Markelle Fultz
11 - Sindarious Thornwell
12 - Jayson Tatum
13 - Jonathan Isaac
14 - OG Anunoby

Interesting to see Bell and Thornwell among top 14 as well. I am curious how / where Swanigan rates.

Also, how has your Model performed on International players historically?

My model the last 2 years is unrecognizable from attempts before so I don't know how it will perform yet, but international players is the biggest market inefficiency I'm confident in along with "Don't take players who are bad at both defense and passing"

Here is the PER of some successful international prospects lately:

Valanciunas (2012 LKL) - 29.8
Gobert (2013 French Pro A) - 21.7
Jokic (2014 Adriatic) - 22.8
Saric (2014 Adriatic) - 22.4
Nurkic (2014 Adriatic) - 35.6
Capela (2014 French Pro A) - 23.9
Porzingis (2015 ACB) - 19.2

Now here is the top 5 international picks recently:

Exum - N/A
Hezonja (2015 ACB) - 12.1
Bender (2016 Israel) - 16.5, 6.0 in Euroleague

Picking players who are proven to be good players already at higher levels than NCAA, has worked out. The closest things to Darko type tools over numbers players, picked in the top 5 haven't. Giannis of course, is an example of an Exum like toolsy guy that worked giving hope to teams who draft the tools first guys, but RealGM doesn't even track his international stats so I have no way of knowing how productive he was in 2nd tier Greek league...

International players in this year's class:

Frank Ntilikina, 10th on DX: 12.1 PER in French Pro A
Isaiah Hartenstein, 19th on DX: 17.5 PER in LKL, 3.5 in Euroleague
Anzejs Pasecniks, 21st on DX: 20.6 PER in ACB
Terrance Ferguson, 24th on DX: 5.4 PER in Australian NBL
Mathias Lessort, 32nd on DX: 21.8 PER in French Pro A

It seems to me like Pasecniks and Lessort are two of the best bets in this draft based on the list of productive international bigs. Lessort tracks pretty well with Gobert and Capela, even if lacking their shotblocking potential. Considering my stance on international players and his physical tools and lack of competition, if this was around for the 2013 draft I'm pretty confident in saying I'd have called Gobert the best prospect that year. As for Pasecniks being a strong ACB player already seems impressive to me. The ACB is much higher level than the NCAA.

[bigcymbal]

Worth noting though that all the successes you listed are bigs. PER can hide the impact of low-usage guards/wings. Look at Malcolm Brogdon who ended the season with 14.9 and a usage rate of 18.5% - yet RPM would rate him as a high impact player (7th highest RPM among those listed as SGs).

Could simply be that the skillset for international guards doesn't translate to the NBA as well as the skillset for international bigs, certainly not as consistently.

[bchaikin]

i see alot of similarities between josh hart (villanova) and malcolm brogdon (virginia) - both 6-5, both went to school for 4 years, over that time scored the same per game and neither passed for many assists, per 40 hart was a bit better scorer and brogdon a bit better passer, brogdon the much better FT% but hart the much better 2pt FG%, similar rates for getting to the FT line, hart with better rates for rebounding, steals, blocks...

what does RPM say for josh hart?...

[jgoldstein34]

DBPM as Hart as virtually tied with Brogdon on defense in college (3.7 vs 3.6) and quite a bit better in OBPM (6.9 vs 5.3). Hart's wingspan is 2" shorter though, so his defense may not translate like Brogdon's did. My model has him as late 1st rounder, while he's currently 42 on DraftExpress. Seems to be a guy who's likely to come in and help, but just doesn't have a ton of apparent upside because of his age (though he's ~a year younger than Brogdon was at this time last year). If Hart were 2-3 years younger he'd be a lottery pick.

[Crow]

Unless a player is a lottery pick or going to a young, bad team, I am not too concerned with age right now. As long as your performance is good.