Denver Nuggets
By RPM the Nuggets have a 22 year old future MVP caliber talent. Jokic is 1st for Cs and 6th in the NBA in RPM in 2017. Astonishingly he was 1st for Cs as a rookie in 2016. These are supposed to be the worst years for a player's +/- and Jokic is already thriving, one wonders what his ceiling is.
Gary Harris is eligible for an extension. At 23 he finished 19th for SGs last year after 45th in 2016 and 70th in 2015. Harris has disappointing defensive numbers (-2.37 DRAPM, +6.2 defensive on/off) for a player once considered a 3 and D prospect but his offense makes up for it. Like Noel his track record of starting caliber play seems limited to justify a max contract if he's asking for it although he played more minutes than Noel last year. Unlike Noel the Nuggets also have the option to wait until his RFA to get a better gauge on him. Nevertheless if he signs a big extension, he could end up living up to it and becoming top 10 at his position based on his play last year and youth.
The Nuggets big free agent signing was Millsap for 31.3 mil, 29.7, 30.5 (team option) the next three seasons. Millsap rated 3rd for PFs last year and 14th in the NBA, after being 3rd for PFs in 2016 and 2015 as well. While Millsap will turn 33 this season considering the short length of his deal this looks like a good signing for Denver and could give them star level value.
Mason Plumlee just signed for 3 years, 41 million. At 24th for Cs in RPM in 2017, 11th in 2016, 31st in 2015 he should be a strong backup C although it's unclear whether the price is worth it for a player who plays the same position as Jokic. Faried dropped to 60th for PFs last year after 35th in 2016 and and 13th in 2015. At 12.9, 13.7 mil the next two years and after the Plumlee contract it may be a good idea to look for takers for him. Chandler finished 42nd for SFs last year, 39th in 2015 and 22nd in 2014. At 12, 12.8 (PO) the next two years his price isn't terrible but overpaid enough for an average player that it could be worth shopping. Barton finished 39th in 2017, 46th in 2016 and 36th in 2015 for SGs. He is on a highly cheap 3.5 mil. Arthur rated 41st for PFs in 2017, 25th in 2016 and 17th in 2015 and makes 7.5, 7.5 (PO) the next two years, an acceptable price but perhaps not the best fit on a team with plenty of other players at his position.
The Nuggets are pinning some hopes on Murray who would have finished a decent 37th for PGs last year for a rookie. Juan Hernangomez rated 58th for PFs. A recent high pick Mudiay rated 73rd for PGs in 2017 and 435th in the NBA, after 62nd for PGs in 2016. Their draft day pickup Trey Lyles had a poor sophmore season finishing 71st for PFs after 63rd last year. While both are only 21 they are showing a lot of signs of bust potential right now and if they plays poorly out of the gate they may think about cutting their minutes or moving on. Other young players include Malik Beasley who had a decent rookie year in the G League and Tyler Lydon who struggled in Summer League.
For the Nuggets going forward it all revolves around Jokic if he's as big a star as it looks and by RPM when they get the chance they should offer as much money for as many years as they can to him. Harris is a more difficult decision and it may be wise to until his RFA to see if he's worth a deal upwards of 20 million. Going forward by RPM they should consider trading Faried, Chandler, Arthur as they simply fill up the Nuggets cap for average play. The Nuggets have a unique opportunity the next few years while Jokic makes 1.5, 1.6 mil to have cap flexibility to fill the team. Stripping their roster down salary cap wise to Jokic, Millsap, Harris and players on rookie contracts could give them the flexibility to sign more RPM friendly players while they can.
"If your team went all in on RPM"
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Dr Positivity
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Re: "If your team went all in on RPM"
The Pistons situation is not as dire as I expected
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are built around Drummond who makes 23.8 mil, 25.4, 27.1, 28.7 (PO) the the next four years. Drummond finished 37th for Cs in RPM last year, 7th in 2016, 20th in 2015. At 23 and considering his 2016 and 2015 performance they can have some hope he lives up to his contract but if they found an offer for him it would be defendable to take it too.
25 year old Harris makes 16 mil, 14.8 the next two years. He finished 19th for SFs last year, 18th in 2016, 42nd in 2015. Considering his age and short contract length keeping him at that price is reasonable.
Their other highest paid player is 27 year old Reggie Jackson at 16 mil, 17, 18.1 the next three seasons. Jackson finished 72nd for PGs last year but 14th in 2016 and 20th in 2015. It's unclear whether for health reasons Jackson can bounce back and the Pistons would likely move him if they could, but he could find some form again this year and be ok value for his salary.
Leuer finished 45th in 2017, 33rd in 2016, 55th in 2015. At 10.5, 10, 9.5 million he is paid like a bench player the Pistons may be better off moving his salary and trying to spend it more efficiently. Ish Smith rated 22nd for PGs in 2017, 35th in 2016 and 54th in 2015. At 6 million the next two years his price is reasonable. Marjonovic makes 7 million the next two years, he has never played enough minutes to get a good read on him, but he did finish 18th for Cs last year and 11th in 2016 and his per minute boxscore stats have always been productive. With the loss of Baynes the Pistons can consider giving him a bigger role this year. Galloway makes 6.7, 7, 7.3 mil the next three years and finished 49th in 2017 for SGs, 28th in 2016, 33rd in 2015. With his track record for that price it is not a bad deal.
Their big acquisition is Bradley who would have rated 61st for SGs if listed there in 2017, 20th in 2016, 29th in 2015. He is on a one year 8.8 million deal so not a burden, but if he puts up boxscore stats this season the Pistons should be wary of giving him the big contract he desires next summer if his RPM doesn't improve. They traded Morris for him who would have rated 23rd for SFs in 2017, 15th in 2016 and 32nd in 2015 and was on a longer bargain deal so this trade does not look great right now.
They lost Caldwell-Pope who was asking for a 4 year, 106 million max after finishing 30th in 2017 for SGs, 10th in 2016 and 20th in 2015. A max would have been risky after his 2017 play even with his previous track record. Their offer along the lines of 5 years, 80 million would have been reasonable.
For young players Stanley Johnson has finished 55ths for SFs in 2017 and 2016. Ellenson was a G League stash last year and did not play great there, although showed promise at summer league. The Kennard pick was not loved by analytics, but also showed some potential at summer league. Bullock finished 33rd in 2017 for SFs, 50th in 2016 and 41st in 2015, although in under 500 minutes each season.
Detroit has some hope for next season to be a playoff team if players such as Drummond, Jackson, Bradley can bounce back to their 2016 form or close to it. Their play will also be important for the Pistons to decide whether to trade Drummond or Jackson at their salaries and what to offer Bradley in FA. If all went to best case scenario the Drummond, Jackson, Harris, Bradley core could be good and young enough to be worth not blowing up yet. Salaries like Leuer, Marjonovic, Galloway are not killers especially for how a low level FA destination like Detroit would hope to replace them, but if they wanted to open up capspace by trading deals like this to find bigger steals for their value, it could be something to consider. What the Pistons could use is a great young talent but the Johnson, Kennard, Ellenson combo does not look tremendously promising.
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are built around Drummond who makes 23.8 mil, 25.4, 27.1, 28.7 (PO) the the next four years. Drummond finished 37th for Cs in RPM last year, 7th in 2016, 20th in 2015. At 23 and considering his 2016 and 2015 performance they can have some hope he lives up to his contract but if they found an offer for him it would be defendable to take it too.
25 year old Harris makes 16 mil, 14.8 the next two years. He finished 19th for SFs last year, 18th in 2016, 42nd in 2015. Considering his age and short contract length keeping him at that price is reasonable.
Their other highest paid player is 27 year old Reggie Jackson at 16 mil, 17, 18.1 the next three seasons. Jackson finished 72nd for PGs last year but 14th in 2016 and 20th in 2015. It's unclear whether for health reasons Jackson can bounce back and the Pistons would likely move him if they could, but he could find some form again this year and be ok value for his salary.
Leuer finished 45th in 2017, 33rd in 2016, 55th in 2015. At 10.5, 10, 9.5 million he is paid like a bench player the Pistons may be better off moving his salary and trying to spend it more efficiently. Ish Smith rated 22nd for PGs in 2017, 35th in 2016 and 54th in 2015. At 6 million the next two years his price is reasonable. Marjonovic makes 7 million the next two years, he has never played enough minutes to get a good read on him, but he did finish 18th for Cs last year and 11th in 2016 and his per minute boxscore stats have always been productive. With the loss of Baynes the Pistons can consider giving him a bigger role this year. Galloway makes 6.7, 7, 7.3 mil the next three years and finished 49th in 2017 for SGs, 28th in 2016, 33rd in 2015. With his track record for that price it is not a bad deal.
Their big acquisition is Bradley who would have rated 61st for SGs if listed there in 2017, 20th in 2016, 29th in 2015. He is on a one year 8.8 million deal so not a burden, but if he puts up boxscore stats this season the Pistons should be wary of giving him the big contract he desires next summer if his RPM doesn't improve. They traded Morris for him who would have rated 23rd for SFs in 2017, 15th in 2016 and 32nd in 2015 and was on a longer bargain deal so this trade does not look great right now.
They lost Caldwell-Pope who was asking for a 4 year, 106 million max after finishing 30th in 2017 for SGs, 10th in 2016 and 20th in 2015. A max would have been risky after his 2017 play even with his previous track record. Their offer along the lines of 5 years, 80 million would have been reasonable.
For young players Stanley Johnson has finished 55ths for SFs in 2017 and 2016. Ellenson was a G League stash last year and did not play great there, although showed promise at summer league. The Kennard pick was not loved by analytics, but also showed some potential at summer league. Bullock finished 33rd in 2017 for SFs, 50th in 2016 and 41st in 2015, although in under 500 minutes each season.
Detroit has some hope for next season to be a playoff team if players such as Drummond, Jackson, Bradley can bounce back to their 2016 form or close to it. Their play will also be important for the Pistons to decide whether to trade Drummond or Jackson at their salaries and what to offer Bradley in FA. If all went to best case scenario the Drummond, Jackson, Harris, Bradley core could be good and young enough to be worth not blowing up yet. Salaries like Leuer, Marjonovic, Galloway are not killers especially for how a low level FA destination like Detroit would hope to replace them, but if they wanted to open up capspace by trading deals like this to find bigger steals for their value, it could be something to consider. What the Pistons could use is a great young talent but the Johnson, Kennard, Ellenson combo does not look tremendously promising.
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Dr Positivity
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Re: "If your team went all in on RPM"
Golden State Warriors
By RPM it’s a joke how stacked these guys are. Curry is 2nd for PGs in RPM in 2017 and 3rd in the league, after being 2nd for PGs in 2016 and 1st in 2015. Green is 1st for PFs and 4th in the league in 2017, after being 1st for PFs in 2016 and 2nd in 2015. Durant is 3rd for SFs and 11th in the league in 2017, after 3rd for SFs in 2016 and 2014. Klay is 4th for SGs in 2017 after 8th in 2016 and 2015. Iguodala is 8th for SFs in 2017 after 12th in 2016 and 17th in 2015. At 14.8 mil, 16, 17.2 the next three years even at 33 Iguodala’s new deal represents solid value.
Making it more ridiculous is that so called weak spot in the starting lineup Zaza has a great RPM track record. He was 5th for Cs in 2017 after 19th in 2016 and 2nd in 2015. West was 12th for PFs in 2017 after 11th in 2016 and 28th in 2015. The Warriors have a top 5 rated RPM player at every starting position, and two more top 12 rated players at their position coming off the bench.
McGee rated 22nd for Cs in 2017 after 46th in 2016 and 47th in 2017. Livingston rated 58th for PGs in 2017 after 20th in 2016 and 28th in 2015. There are no bad contracts on the Warriors, at 7.7 mil, 8.3, 7.7 (non-guaranteed) Livingston represents the one potential sore spot if he performed at last year’s RPM but by his 2016 and 2015 rating he’s more than worth it. If Iguodala fell off the map rapidly he could become a bad contract but he hasn't shown signs of it yet.
New acquisitions include Nick Young who rated 17th for SGs in 2017 after 75th in 2016 and 42nd in 2015. Since Young did so well under Luke Walton’s coaching the Warriors may be betting on their system getting the best of out of him. Casspi rated 51st for SFs in 2017 and after 16th in 2016 and 34th in 2015.
For their young pipeline McCaw would have finished 94th for SGs and 458th in the league. While young players can be excused for poor +/- and he is a 3 and D prospect which is favorable in analytics, finishing that horrendously is a concerning sign. Looney played under 500 minutes but would have finished 68th for PFs. Their 2nd round pick Jordan Bell rates as a potential draft steal according to some analytics.
Among rotation players the team lost Ian Clark who finished 77th for SGs in 2017.
Going forward Klay Thompson’s free agency in 2019 will be a key decision for the Warriors. To keep all of Curry, Durant, Klay and Green they will have to one day pay an obscene luxury tax bill. By RPM paying Klay a star contract is worth it for a proven top 8 player at his position and RPM suggests right now McCaw's chance to replace him may be overrated. Other than that since Zaza and Iguodala are 33 and West is 37, the production they get out of those three will eventually have to be replaced by RPM friendly signings or prospects like Bell.
By RPM it’s a joke how stacked these guys are. Curry is 2nd for PGs in RPM in 2017 and 3rd in the league, after being 2nd for PGs in 2016 and 1st in 2015. Green is 1st for PFs and 4th in the league in 2017, after being 1st for PFs in 2016 and 2nd in 2015. Durant is 3rd for SFs and 11th in the league in 2017, after 3rd for SFs in 2016 and 2014. Klay is 4th for SGs in 2017 after 8th in 2016 and 2015. Iguodala is 8th for SFs in 2017 after 12th in 2016 and 17th in 2015. At 14.8 mil, 16, 17.2 the next three years even at 33 Iguodala’s new deal represents solid value.
Making it more ridiculous is that so called weak spot in the starting lineup Zaza has a great RPM track record. He was 5th for Cs in 2017 after 19th in 2016 and 2nd in 2015. West was 12th for PFs in 2017 after 11th in 2016 and 28th in 2015. The Warriors have a top 5 rated RPM player at every starting position, and two more top 12 rated players at their position coming off the bench.
McGee rated 22nd for Cs in 2017 after 46th in 2016 and 47th in 2017. Livingston rated 58th for PGs in 2017 after 20th in 2016 and 28th in 2015. There are no bad contracts on the Warriors, at 7.7 mil, 8.3, 7.7 (non-guaranteed) Livingston represents the one potential sore spot if he performed at last year’s RPM but by his 2016 and 2015 rating he’s more than worth it. If Iguodala fell off the map rapidly he could become a bad contract but he hasn't shown signs of it yet.
New acquisitions include Nick Young who rated 17th for SGs in 2017 after 75th in 2016 and 42nd in 2015. Since Young did so well under Luke Walton’s coaching the Warriors may be betting on their system getting the best of out of him. Casspi rated 51st for SFs in 2017 and after 16th in 2016 and 34th in 2015.
For their young pipeline McCaw would have finished 94th for SGs and 458th in the league. While young players can be excused for poor +/- and he is a 3 and D prospect which is favorable in analytics, finishing that horrendously is a concerning sign. Looney played under 500 minutes but would have finished 68th for PFs. Their 2nd round pick Jordan Bell rates as a potential draft steal according to some analytics.
Among rotation players the team lost Ian Clark who finished 77th for SGs in 2017.
Going forward Klay Thompson’s free agency in 2019 will be a key decision for the Warriors. To keep all of Curry, Durant, Klay and Green they will have to one day pay an obscene luxury tax bill. By RPM paying Klay a star contract is worth it for a proven top 8 player at his position and RPM suggests right now McCaw's chance to replace him may be overrated. Other than that since Zaza and Iguodala are 33 and West is 37, the production they get out of those three will eventually have to be replaced by RPM friendly signings or prospects like Bell.
Re: "If your team went all in on RPM"
Pistons imo have very little chance of improvement from current position / design. Offload Stan and give it 5 years or more of rebuilding anew.
The offense is atrociously designed. Probably the least Morey ball team and the lowest ts% to show for it. Stan went to Sloan but completely missed about the only useful idea from the panel talk. They don't turn it over but they don't create assists at all. The defense isn't good beyond rebounding. They should trade almost everyone but the values are probably quite low. Re-signing Bradley to a huge deal would add another major mistake. Johnson has been horrible. The East sucks but I don't see playoffs for them.
The offense is atrociously designed. Probably the least Morey ball team and the lowest ts% to show for it. Stan went to Sloan but completely missed about the only useful idea from the panel talk. They don't turn it over but they don't create assists at all. The defense isn't good beyond rebounding. They should trade almost everyone but the values are probably quite low. Re-signing Bradley to a huge deal would add another major mistake. Johnson has been horrible. The East sucks but I don't see playoffs for them.
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Dr Positivity
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Re: "If your team went all in on RPM"
Houston Rockets
The Rockets backcourt by RPM is as dominant as you can get. Paul finished 2nd in the NBA and 1st for PGs in 2017, 3rd in the NBA and 1st for PGs in 2016 and 7th in the NBA and 3rd for PGs in 2015. Harden finished 13th in the NBA and 2nd for SGs in 2017, 16th in the NBA and 1st for SGs in 2016 and 3rd in the NBA and 1st for SGs in 2015.
In the Paul trade they lost Beverley who rated 10th for PGs last year, 9th in 2016 and 35th in 2015. Lou Williams rated 6th for SGs in 2017, 47th in 2016 and 12th in 2015. Dekker rated 44th for SFs and Harrell 48th for PFs which was a solid start for players getting their first real rotation minutes in the NBA. While they gave up some quality pieces and assets which could burn them if he leaves in UFA, getting one year of a superstar in CP3 should be worth it.
Nene finished 10th for Cs in 2017, 13th in 2017 and 20th in 2015. Even at 35 and a decline candidate, at 3.5 mil, 3.7, 3.8 (PO) if he comes anywhere near that value he will be one of the league's biggest bargains. In contrast the extension eligible 23 year old Capela has a spottier record in RPM at 39th for Cs in 2017, 16th in 2016, and 41st as a rookie in 2015. Capela proving he is starting caliber will be key for the Rockets going forward and after Paul's success with similar players in Chandler and Deandre he is in the perfect place, nevertheless the Rockets waiting to extend him until they see he's a proven starter could be justified based on his 2017 RPM. They also signed another energy big in Tarik Black who rated 41st in 2017 for Cs, 31st in 2016 and 45th in 2015. As a 25 year old making 3.3 mil coming from the Lakers and to a more talented team in the Rockets he is a solid low risk option with some reward.
A key established contributer is Ariza who finished 13th for SFs in 2017, 20th in 2016 and 15th in 2015. The Rockets also signed Tucker who finished 18th for SFs in 2017, 25th in 2016 and 30th at 2015. With Ariza at 7.4 mil expiring and Tucker at 7.6 mil, 8.0, 8.4, 8 (non-guaranteed) the next four years both are undervalued deals for players with a track record of being starting caliber. Mbah a Moute rated 25th for PFs in 2017, 43rd in 2016 and 41st in 2015. At 1.5 mil if he plays at 2016 level he can be a bargain, while having little risk.
The Rockets biggest contracts after Harden and Paul are Anderson and Gordon. Anderson is at 19.6 mil, 20.4, 21.2 the next three years and finished 16th for PFs in 2017, 30th in 2016 and 47th in 2015. While Anderson increased his value in the Rockets system even then he was slightly overpaid and regressing to his 2016 and 2015 values bring the risk he won't live up to his value. Gordon makes 12.9 mil, 13.5, 14 the next 3 years and finished 13th for SGs, 25th in 2016 and 39th in 2015. Like Anderson his improvement last year may be legitimate and as a result of fitting the Rockets system more, but even at his 2016 RPM of a lower level starter his contract would be would be reasonable. A concern for Gordon is his durability.
For prospects Troy Williams finished 63rd for SFs in RPM as a rookie last year. Chinanu Onuaku had impressive D League production and Zhou Qi was a highly efficient shotblocker in China. Cameron Oliver was an analytically friendly undrafted FA signing.
With Paul and Harden the Rockets are halfway to having the Warriors top end firepower and they have potential to be a deep team with players like Nene, Ariza, Tucker, Anderson, Gordon having potential to play at a top 20 level at their position this year. The hope would be this quantity of starting caliber depth makes up for having 2 stars instead of 4 for the Warriors. Going forward if following RPM they would hold off on paying Capela as a starting C until they see this numbers this season, and would look to resign the solid Ariza next year. They should look for offers for Anderson's contract, and possibly listen to ones for Gordon based on his play and injury history. Other than that they live up to their analytics friendly reputation by having two mega stars in RPM and several salary bargains like Nene, Ariza and Tucker
The Rockets backcourt by RPM is as dominant as you can get. Paul finished 2nd in the NBA and 1st for PGs in 2017, 3rd in the NBA and 1st for PGs in 2016 and 7th in the NBA and 3rd for PGs in 2015. Harden finished 13th in the NBA and 2nd for SGs in 2017, 16th in the NBA and 1st for SGs in 2016 and 3rd in the NBA and 1st for SGs in 2015.
In the Paul trade they lost Beverley who rated 10th for PGs last year, 9th in 2016 and 35th in 2015. Lou Williams rated 6th for SGs in 2017, 47th in 2016 and 12th in 2015. Dekker rated 44th for SFs and Harrell 48th for PFs which was a solid start for players getting their first real rotation minutes in the NBA. While they gave up some quality pieces and assets which could burn them if he leaves in UFA, getting one year of a superstar in CP3 should be worth it.
Nene finished 10th for Cs in 2017, 13th in 2017 and 20th in 2015. Even at 35 and a decline candidate, at 3.5 mil, 3.7, 3.8 (PO) if he comes anywhere near that value he will be one of the league's biggest bargains. In contrast the extension eligible 23 year old Capela has a spottier record in RPM at 39th for Cs in 2017, 16th in 2016, and 41st as a rookie in 2015. Capela proving he is starting caliber will be key for the Rockets going forward and after Paul's success with similar players in Chandler and Deandre he is in the perfect place, nevertheless the Rockets waiting to extend him until they see he's a proven starter could be justified based on his 2017 RPM. They also signed another energy big in Tarik Black who rated 41st in 2017 for Cs, 31st in 2016 and 45th in 2015. As a 25 year old making 3.3 mil coming from the Lakers and to a more talented team in the Rockets he is a solid low risk option with some reward.
A key established contributer is Ariza who finished 13th for SFs in 2017, 20th in 2016 and 15th in 2015. The Rockets also signed Tucker who finished 18th for SFs in 2017, 25th in 2016 and 30th at 2015. With Ariza at 7.4 mil expiring and Tucker at 7.6 mil, 8.0, 8.4, 8 (non-guaranteed) the next four years both are undervalued deals for players with a track record of being starting caliber. Mbah a Moute rated 25th for PFs in 2017, 43rd in 2016 and 41st in 2015. At 1.5 mil if he plays at 2016 level he can be a bargain, while having little risk.
The Rockets biggest contracts after Harden and Paul are Anderson and Gordon. Anderson is at 19.6 mil, 20.4, 21.2 the next three years and finished 16th for PFs in 2017, 30th in 2016 and 47th in 2015. While Anderson increased his value in the Rockets system even then he was slightly overpaid and regressing to his 2016 and 2015 values bring the risk he won't live up to his value. Gordon makes 12.9 mil, 13.5, 14 the next 3 years and finished 13th for SGs, 25th in 2016 and 39th in 2015. Like Anderson his improvement last year may be legitimate and as a result of fitting the Rockets system more, but even at his 2016 RPM of a lower level starter his contract would be would be reasonable. A concern for Gordon is his durability.
For prospects Troy Williams finished 63rd for SFs in RPM as a rookie last year. Chinanu Onuaku had impressive D League production and Zhou Qi was a highly efficient shotblocker in China. Cameron Oliver was an analytically friendly undrafted FA signing.
With Paul and Harden the Rockets are halfway to having the Warriors top end firepower and they have potential to be a deep team with players like Nene, Ariza, Tucker, Anderson, Gordon having potential to play at a top 20 level at their position this year. The hope would be this quantity of starting caliber depth makes up for having 2 stars instead of 4 for the Warriors. Going forward if following RPM they would hold off on paying Capela as a starting C until they see this numbers this season, and would look to resign the solid Ariza next year. They should look for offers for Anderson's contract, and possibly listen to ones for Gordon based on his play and injury history. Other than that they live up to their analytics friendly reputation by having two mega stars in RPM and several salary bargains like Nene, Ariza and Tucker
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Dr Positivity
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Re: "If your team went all in on RPM"
This is an outlook that's a lot different than the national media's would be:
Indiana Pacers
The George trade looks like a solid move by RPM if not a win for the Pacers considering their low leverage position. George rated 11th for SFs in 2017 in RPM, 4th in 2016 and 9th in 2014. Oladipo rated 7th for SGs in 2017, 6th in 2016 and 27th in 2015. Oladipo's 21 mil per year the next four seasons looks like a fair price with his 2017 and 2016 track record in RPM and with the upside to improve at 25. Sabonis rated 67th for PFs as a rookie but has lottery pedigree.
Myles Turner finished 7th for Cs in 2017 after 55th in 2016 as a rookie. His 2017 RPM for a 21 year old sophomore player indicates he has the potential to be a star at his position. Turner is eligible for an extension next summer, if he continues to show the promise of his 2017 ranking, giving him a star level extension as soon as they can could be justified.
Thad Young finished 24th for PFs in RPM in 2017, 25th in 2016 and 21st in 2015. At 14.8 mil, 13.7 (PO) his contract is reasonable but considering their difficulty resigning FAs and that he would be a 30 year old next summer, it may be a good idea to trade him for value while they can. Al Jefferson who makes 9.8 mil, 10 (unguaranteed) rated 52nd for Cs in 2017, 37th in 2016 and 35th in 2015. At 33 and his style of game quickly becoming out of place, the Pacers should have no reason to keep him beyond this year unless he bounces back to top 40 C level and comes at a bargain.
The Pacers signed Bojan Bogdanovic at 10.5 mil, 10.5 (partially guaranteed). He finished 87th in RPM in 2017, 75th in 2016 and 61st as a rookie in 2015 so this contract rates like a whiff for his value by RPM. If he puts up good boxscore stats this year by RPM the Pacers should look to cash in rather than guarantee his 18-19 deal. They also signed Collison for 10 mil, 10 (non-guaranteed) the next two years, who rated 30th in 2017 for PGs, 31st in 2016 and 17th in 2015. His contract is ok for a borderline starter but they could be better off not keeping him next year and looking for better RPM steals in free agency. They also traded for Cory Joseph at 7.6 mil, 8.0 (PO) the next two years. Joseph rated 55th for PGs in RPM last year, 32nd in 2016 and 23rd in 2015. Despite the downward trend at 26 and for his price his contract is a reasonable gamble he'll get to top 30 play. Nevertheless if away from Lowry he had a breakout year in boxscore stats, they should be wary to pay him a big deal unless his +/- backs it up. In the Joseph S&T they lost Miles who rated 25th for SGs in 2017, 40th in 2016 and 16th in 2015.
They brought back Lance Stephenson who rated 62nd for SGs in 2016, 65th in 2015 and 13th in his career year 2014. While Stephenson's season with the Pacers could prove to be a fluke at 4.1 mil, 4.4 (team option) it was a risk worth taking bringing him back to Indiana would reignite his career. Glenn Robinson III played 1400 minutes for the Pacers last year and finished 58th for SGs, although was a 23 year old in his first real minutes of play and his style of game has some 3 and D potential.
Alongside the pre-mentioned Sabonis the Pacers spent their highest pick on T.J. Leaf and they grabbed a player in the 2nd round who some thought could be picked in the top 20 in Ike Anibogu, who fell due to medical concerns. Neither were rated that highly on analytics boards.
By RPM the Pacers did well faced with a difficult situation in the George trade and set themselves up with an Oladipo/Turner core of the future both of whom have the upside to be top 5 players at their position. The contracts of Young, Collison, Jefferson, Joseph, Bogdanovic and Stephenson are mediocre for their track record in RPM, but all could be off the books after this season. This could serve the purpose of getting them to the playoffs for a year and then by next summer allow the team to surround Oladipo and Turner with RPM friendly free agent signings to establish their long term future.
Indiana Pacers
The George trade looks like a solid move by RPM if not a win for the Pacers considering their low leverage position. George rated 11th for SFs in 2017 in RPM, 4th in 2016 and 9th in 2014. Oladipo rated 7th for SGs in 2017, 6th in 2016 and 27th in 2015. Oladipo's 21 mil per year the next four seasons looks like a fair price with his 2017 and 2016 track record in RPM and with the upside to improve at 25. Sabonis rated 67th for PFs as a rookie but has lottery pedigree.
Myles Turner finished 7th for Cs in 2017 after 55th in 2016 as a rookie. His 2017 RPM for a 21 year old sophomore player indicates he has the potential to be a star at his position. Turner is eligible for an extension next summer, if he continues to show the promise of his 2017 ranking, giving him a star level extension as soon as they can could be justified.
Thad Young finished 24th for PFs in RPM in 2017, 25th in 2016 and 21st in 2015. At 14.8 mil, 13.7 (PO) his contract is reasonable but considering their difficulty resigning FAs and that he would be a 30 year old next summer, it may be a good idea to trade him for value while they can. Al Jefferson who makes 9.8 mil, 10 (unguaranteed) rated 52nd for Cs in 2017, 37th in 2016 and 35th in 2015. At 33 and his style of game quickly becoming out of place, the Pacers should have no reason to keep him beyond this year unless he bounces back to top 40 C level and comes at a bargain.
The Pacers signed Bojan Bogdanovic at 10.5 mil, 10.5 (partially guaranteed). He finished 87th in RPM in 2017, 75th in 2016 and 61st as a rookie in 2015 so this contract rates like a whiff for his value by RPM. If he puts up good boxscore stats this year by RPM the Pacers should look to cash in rather than guarantee his 18-19 deal. They also signed Collison for 10 mil, 10 (non-guaranteed) the next two years, who rated 30th in 2017 for PGs, 31st in 2016 and 17th in 2015. His contract is ok for a borderline starter but they could be better off not keeping him next year and looking for better RPM steals in free agency. They also traded for Cory Joseph at 7.6 mil, 8.0 (PO) the next two years. Joseph rated 55th for PGs in RPM last year, 32nd in 2016 and 23rd in 2015. Despite the downward trend at 26 and for his price his contract is a reasonable gamble he'll get to top 30 play. Nevertheless if away from Lowry he had a breakout year in boxscore stats, they should be wary to pay him a big deal unless his +/- backs it up. In the Joseph S&T they lost Miles who rated 25th for SGs in 2017, 40th in 2016 and 16th in 2015.
They brought back Lance Stephenson who rated 62nd for SGs in 2016, 65th in 2015 and 13th in his career year 2014. While Stephenson's season with the Pacers could prove to be a fluke at 4.1 mil, 4.4 (team option) it was a risk worth taking bringing him back to Indiana would reignite his career. Glenn Robinson III played 1400 minutes for the Pacers last year and finished 58th for SGs, although was a 23 year old in his first real minutes of play and his style of game has some 3 and D potential.
Alongside the pre-mentioned Sabonis the Pacers spent their highest pick on T.J. Leaf and they grabbed a player in the 2nd round who some thought could be picked in the top 20 in Ike Anibogu, who fell due to medical concerns. Neither were rated that highly on analytics boards.
By RPM the Pacers did well faced with a difficult situation in the George trade and set themselves up with an Oladipo/Turner core of the future both of whom have the upside to be top 5 players at their position. The contracts of Young, Collison, Jefferson, Joseph, Bogdanovic and Stephenson are mediocre for their track record in RPM, but all could be off the books after this season. This could serve the purpose of getting them to the playoffs for a year and then by next summer allow the team to surround Oladipo and Turner with RPM friendly free agent signings to establish their long term future.
Last edited by Dr Positivity on Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:38 am, edited 2 times in total.
Re: "If your team went all in on RPM"
I am under impression that 4-6 current teams have analysts who have calculated some form of adjusted plus minus. If there are others, they aren't on radar. Have never seen an NBA job description actively solicit candidates with APM skill, though it appears it was important element of case for those analysts mentions at start.
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Dr Positivity
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Re: "If your team went all in on RPM"
Los Angeles Clippers
The new Clippers top rated player for his position is Deandre who rated 3rd for Cs in 2017, 2nd in 2016 and 3rd in 2015. It will be a test to see if his productivity sticks without Paul passing him lobs. At 22.6 mil, 24.1 (PO) the next two years the Clippers will have a tough decision to make next summer as he will be 30 next summer and relies on his athleticism. Nevertheless by RPM he currently rates as worth a star contract when he comes up.
Their top paid player is Griffin who's new deal pays him 29.5 mil, 31.8, 34.2, 36.6, 38.9 (PO) after finishing 7th for PFs last year in RPM, 15th in 2016 and 12th in PF. By RPM making him one of the league's highest paid is pricey for his track record, especially with durability issues. Although if he can stick in top 7 and stay healthy it could be not too big a burden.
There is quality elsewhere on the roster. Beverley finished 10th for PGs in 2017, 9th in 2016 and 35th in 2015. He is no Paul who has been 1st, 3rd and 7th in the NBA and 1st, 1st, 3rd for PGs the last three years but is a quality point and cheap at 5.5 mil, 5.0 (non-guaranteed) the next two years. Like Deandre, it's risky removing him from the Harden fit will hurt his RPM and he is also turning 30 next year. They also got Lou Williams on 7.0 million expiring who has been inconsistent in RPM rating 6th for SGs in 2017, 46th in 2016 and 12th in 2015 and 40th in 2014. Dekker finished an acceptable 43rd for SFs in his first year of real minutes, likewise Harrell in his first year of a real sample size was 50th for PFs. At 23 both have upside. Considering Paul was a free agent the Clippers getting Beverley, Williams, Dekker, Harrell and a draft pick was very solid value.
New signing Gallinari finished 10th for SFs in 2017, 11th in 2016 and 14th in 2015. At 20.5 mil, 21.6, 22.6 the next three years his contract would be fair if not for durability concerns as he hasn't played over 63 games since his ACL tear. Like Deandre and Beverley he turns 30 next year although his shooting should give him longevity. The Clippers also signed Teodisic who was a European star at 6.0 mil, 6.3 (PO).
They are paying 11.8 mil, 12.6 (PO) to Rivers who finished 47th for PGs in 2017, 57th in 2016, 62nd in 2015. If Rivers puts up stats in Paul's absence this year he could be looking for a contract, so the Clippers should be wary of paying him if his RPM doesn't improve. Wes Johnson finished 39th for SFs in 2017 after 16th in 2016 and 31st in 2015. At 5.8 mil, 6.1 (PO) he is on an undervalued deal.
Young prospects include Brice Johnson who was average in the D League last year, along with Sindarious Thornwell and Jawun Evans who had some analytic backers.
The Clippers seem like a high variance team this year. If all goes right they could have a top 3 center in Deandre and a top 10 player at every other position in Beverley, Williams, Gallinari, Blake and be a great team. On the other hand if Beverley and Deandre struggle without their superstar guard teammate, Williams regresses to 2014 and 2016 levels and the injury bug hits oft injured players like Beverley, Gallinari and Blake it could combine for a significantly worse year.
If going strictly by RPM if Deandre has a great year he would be worth paying a star contract and Beverley if he continues to play as an above average starter is likely to sign an undervalued contract again going by his history. Wes Johnson could be worth resigning if comes undervalued again. If he plays well Lou Williams could be worth considering another contract to despite his over 30 age and inconsistency. Not getting fooled into overpaying Rivers will be important, and if they are offered a strong return for Griffin it could be worth considering with his mammoth contract and injury history, and likewise Gallinari is worth listening to offers for although not a priority to trade. At the same time, considering this is a core of players either nearing 30 or over it, if the Clippers decided midway through this season their team isn't close enough to contention it could be worth blowing up the team for assets and rebuilding.
The new Clippers top rated player for his position is Deandre who rated 3rd for Cs in 2017, 2nd in 2016 and 3rd in 2015. It will be a test to see if his productivity sticks without Paul passing him lobs. At 22.6 mil, 24.1 (PO) the next two years the Clippers will have a tough decision to make next summer as he will be 30 next summer and relies on his athleticism. Nevertheless by RPM he currently rates as worth a star contract when he comes up.
Their top paid player is Griffin who's new deal pays him 29.5 mil, 31.8, 34.2, 36.6, 38.9 (PO) after finishing 7th for PFs last year in RPM, 15th in 2016 and 12th in PF. By RPM making him one of the league's highest paid is pricey for his track record, especially with durability issues. Although if he can stick in top 7 and stay healthy it could be not too big a burden.
There is quality elsewhere on the roster. Beverley finished 10th for PGs in 2017, 9th in 2016 and 35th in 2015. He is no Paul who has been 1st, 3rd and 7th in the NBA and 1st, 1st, 3rd for PGs the last three years but is a quality point and cheap at 5.5 mil, 5.0 (non-guaranteed) the next two years. Like Deandre, it's risky removing him from the Harden fit will hurt his RPM and he is also turning 30 next year. They also got Lou Williams on 7.0 million expiring who has been inconsistent in RPM rating 6th for SGs in 2017, 46th in 2016 and 12th in 2015 and 40th in 2014. Dekker finished an acceptable 43rd for SFs in his first year of real minutes, likewise Harrell in his first year of a real sample size was 50th for PFs. At 23 both have upside. Considering Paul was a free agent the Clippers getting Beverley, Williams, Dekker, Harrell and a draft pick was very solid value.
New signing Gallinari finished 10th for SFs in 2017, 11th in 2016 and 14th in 2015. At 20.5 mil, 21.6, 22.6 the next three years his contract would be fair if not for durability concerns as he hasn't played over 63 games since his ACL tear. Like Deandre and Beverley he turns 30 next year although his shooting should give him longevity. The Clippers also signed Teodisic who was a European star at 6.0 mil, 6.3 (PO).
They are paying 11.8 mil, 12.6 (PO) to Rivers who finished 47th for PGs in 2017, 57th in 2016, 62nd in 2015. If Rivers puts up stats in Paul's absence this year he could be looking for a contract, so the Clippers should be wary of paying him if his RPM doesn't improve. Wes Johnson finished 39th for SFs in 2017 after 16th in 2016 and 31st in 2015. At 5.8 mil, 6.1 (PO) he is on an undervalued deal.
Young prospects include Brice Johnson who was average in the D League last year, along with Sindarious Thornwell and Jawun Evans who had some analytic backers.
The Clippers seem like a high variance team this year. If all goes right they could have a top 3 center in Deandre and a top 10 player at every other position in Beverley, Williams, Gallinari, Blake and be a great team. On the other hand if Beverley and Deandre struggle without their superstar guard teammate, Williams regresses to 2014 and 2016 levels and the injury bug hits oft injured players like Beverley, Gallinari and Blake it could combine for a significantly worse year.
If going strictly by RPM if Deandre has a great year he would be worth paying a star contract and Beverley if he continues to play as an above average starter is likely to sign an undervalued contract again going by his history. Wes Johnson could be worth resigning if comes undervalued again. If he plays well Lou Williams could be worth considering another contract to despite his over 30 age and inconsistency. Not getting fooled into overpaying Rivers will be important, and if they are offered a strong return for Griffin it could be worth considering with his mammoth contract and injury history, and likewise Gallinari is worth listening to offers for although not a priority to trade. At the same time, considering this is a core of players either nearing 30 or over it, if the Clippers decided midway through this season their team isn't close enough to contention it could be worth blowing up the team for assets and rebuilding.
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Dr Positivity
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Re: "If your team went all in on RPM"
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers enter the season looking to hand the keys to Ball and Ingram. Ball was rated 1st in the draft class on most analytics boards and was summer league MVP, while Ingram struggled as a rookie and would have finished 69th for SFs in RPM and 459th in the NBA. Rookies can struggle in +/- but he has an uphill climb to be worth the 2nd pick.
Nance has upside at 25th for PFs in 2017 after 38th as a rookie in 2016. Other recent picks include Randle who finished 67th for PFs in 2017 after 74th in 2016, unlike Ingram struggling for a 2nd year makes his prognosis more dire. Randle is extension eligible so the Lakers should be very wary of paying him the price he'll be asking for. Zubac rated 69th for Cs as a rookie. Some late 1st or 2nd round picks like summer league star Kyle Kuzma, 3 and D prospect Josh Hart, and shooting/blocking big man Thomas Bryant are sleepers to watch this year.
Their best player in the meantime may be Brook Lopez on 22.6 mil expiring who rated 12th for Cs in 2017, 8th in 2016 and 28th in 2015. At 29 and with a skill driven game it could be worth considering resigning Lopez if he doesn't come too expensively. They also have Caldwell-Pope on a 17.7 mil expiring. KCP is still trying to have his RPM match his 3 and D promise, finishing 30th for SGs in 2017, 10th in 2016, 20th in 2015. The Lakers can get a good look at him and at 24 if he blows up as an analytics friendly wing could be worth resigning.
Other contracts include 32 year old Deng at 17.2 mil, 18, 18.8 mil the next three years. Deng rated 31st for SFs in 2017, 8th in 2016 and 5th in 2015. Considering his track record the two years previous RPM suggests his deal is not as bad as its trade value right now, but his best position may be PF right now which the Lakers have prospects they want to play over him. If Deng plays better this year and Lebron signs it could be worth trying Deng as stretch PF beside him. Clarkson makes 11.5 mil, 12.5, 13.4 the next three years and finished 73rd for PGs in 2017, 50th in 2016 and 43rd in 2015. While 25, like Rivers it may be not be worth the contract for the hope he turns it around. Corey Brewer is on a 7.6 mil expiring and finished 31st for SGs last year, 40th in 2016 and 2015, reasonable for his salary. They also signed Bogut who has health question marks but finished 28th for Cs last year after 4th in 2016 and 7th in 2015. At his price he rates as a strong no risk high upside move.
By RPM the Lakers should look for a taker for Clarkson's contract, especially with their plans in free agency next year. At his age looking to move on from Deng would be fair as well. For young players RPM suggests not extending Randle and giving Nance the PF of the future priority over him. They should also listen to trade offers for Ingram if another team is in love with him. If Ingram starts the season putting up points per game but continues to struggle in RPM it could be a good idea to cash in on his value instead of being seduced into thinking he's the next Durant. If Lopez and Caldwell-Pope play well and don't get in the way of free agency plans they could be options to resign. But the majority of the Lakers future rests on Ball's development combined with Lebron and George's plans.
The Lakers enter the season looking to hand the keys to Ball and Ingram. Ball was rated 1st in the draft class on most analytics boards and was summer league MVP, while Ingram struggled as a rookie and would have finished 69th for SFs in RPM and 459th in the NBA. Rookies can struggle in +/- but he has an uphill climb to be worth the 2nd pick.
Nance has upside at 25th for PFs in 2017 after 38th as a rookie in 2016. Other recent picks include Randle who finished 67th for PFs in 2017 after 74th in 2016, unlike Ingram struggling for a 2nd year makes his prognosis more dire. Randle is extension eligible so the Lakers should be very wary of paying him the price he'll be asking for. Zubac rated 69th for Cs as a rookie. Some late 1st or 2nd round picks like summer league star Kyle Kuzma, 3 and D prospect Josh Hart, and shooting/blocking big man Thomas Bryant are sleepers to watch this year.
Their best player in the meantime may be Brook Lopez on 22.6 mil expiring who rated 12th for Cs in 2017, 8th in 2016 and 28th in 2015. At 29 and with a skill driven game it could be worth considering resigning Lopez if he doesn't come too expensively. They also have Caldwell-Pope on a 17.7 mil expiring. KCP is still trying to have his RPM match his 3 and D promise, finishing 30th for SGs in 2017, 10th in 2016, 20th in 2015. The Lakers can get a good look at him and at 24 if he blows up as an analytics friendly wing could be worth resigning.
Other contracts include 32 year old Deng at 17.2 mil, 18, 18.8 mil the next three years. Deng rated 31st for SFs in 2017, 8th in 2016 and 5th in 2015. Considering his track record the two years previous RPM suggests his deal is not as bad as its trade value right now, but his best position may be PF right now which the Lakers have prospects they want to play over him. If Deng plays better this year and Lebron signs it could be worth trying Deng as stretch PF beside him. Clarkson makes 11.5 mil, 12.5, 13.4 the next three years and finished 73rd for PGs in 2017, 50th in 2016 and 43rd in 2015. While 25, like Rivers it may be not be worth the contract for the hope he turns it around. Corey Brewer is on a 7.6 mil expiring and finished 31st for SGs last year, 40th in 2016 and 2015, reasonable for his salary. They also signed Bogut who has health question marks but finished 28th for Cs last year after 4th in 2016 and 7th in 2015. At his price he rates as a strong no risk high upside move.
By RPM the Lakers should look for a taker for Clarkson's contract, especially with their plans in free agency next year. At his age looking to move on from Deng would be fair as well. For young players RPM suggests not extending Randle and giving Nance the PF of the future priority over him. They should also listen to trade offers for Ingram if another team is in love with him. If Ingram starts the season putting up points per game but continues to struggle in RPM it could be a good idea to cash in on his value instead of being seduced into thinking he's the next Durant. If Lopez and Caldwell-Pope play well and don't get in the way of free agency plans they could be options to resign. But the majority of the Lakers future rests on Ball's development combined with Lebron and George's plans.
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Dr Positivity
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Re: "If your team went all in on RPM"
Recent moves for teams posted already
Mirotic - Based on RPM track record (13th PFs 2017, 20th 2016, 8th 2015) and is 26, was highly undervalued at 2 years 27 million and second year team option. Bulls get good price but could end up making the mistake of not jumping on him for 4 years at that price.
Wade - Solid value (33rd SGs 2017, 36th 2016, 28th 2015) for a cheap signing
Mirotic - Based on RPM track record (13th PFs 2017, 20th 2016, 8th 2015) and is 26, was highly undervalued at 2 years 27 million and second year team option. Bulls get good price but could end up making the mistake of not jumping on him for 4 years at that price.
Wade - Solid value (33rd SGs 2017, 36th 2016, 28th 2015) for a cheap signing
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Dr Positivity
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Re: "If your team went all in on RPM"
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizz are built on the foundation of Conley and Gasol. Conley rated 5th for PGs last year, 6th in 2016, 13th in 2015. Gasol rated 6th for Cs in 2017, 21st in 2016, 4th in 2015. Conley is turning 30 in a few weeks and makes 28.5 mil, 30.5, 32.5, 34.5 (PO). Gasol will be 33 in January and makes 22.6 mil, 24.1, 25.6 (PO). Both are worth their deals next season, but keeping them is a risk their trade value drops as they age.
They owe Parsons 23.1 mil, 24.1, 25.1 mil the next three years who has struggled with health. Parsons finished 63rd for SFs last year after 23rd in 2016 and 11th in 2015. For him to be worth it he would have to bounce back to his his 2015 and 2014 (10th SFs) level. If he continues to struggle it may be the worst contract in the league. Brandan Wright and Tyreke Evans haven't been able to stay healthy for many years but the last time they broke 1000 minutes Wright finished 31st for PFs in 2015 and 18th in 2014, Evans finished 9th for SGs in 2015 and 48th in 2014. Wright makes 5.2, 5.5 mil the next two years and Evans 3.3 mil. They also signed Chalmers at 1.5 mil non-guaranteed, I can't find his 2016 rating on ESPN's RPM chart but in 2015 he finished 31st for PGs and 19th in 2014. For a no-risk signing it appears a solid move.
JaMychal Green just signed a 2 year, 17 mil contract. Green finished 35th for PFs last year after 62nd in 2016 in his first real year for minutes. For his play last year and the chance to improve with more experience, 8.5 million per year on a short deal seems like a reasonable price. Another improving Grizzly is James Ennis who finished 27th for SFs last year in real minutes. Ennis and Green are 27 so they aren't prospects, but are shooters who could establish themselves as starters.
The Grizz signed McLemore who finished 92nd for SGs last year and 455th in the NBA, after 49th for SGs in 2016 and 19th in 2015. McLemore is 24 and a shooter so he has a chance to bounce back but 5.2, 5.5 mil the next two years could end up a burden if he can't play.
They are lost Carter who had a resurgent 8th in RPM for SGs last year and Tony Allen who finished 24th. Randolph had fallen to 60th for PFs.
For prospects 2016 1st Baldwin struggled in the G League and was 81st/dead last for PGs in his few hundred minutes. Andrew Harrison beat him for a rotation spot with a respectable 38th for PGs in RPM in his first real year. At 22 he may be their most promising prospect. Deyonta Davis a had solid defensive performance in the G League. 2017 picks include 2nd round faller Ivan Rabb along with Dillon Brooks, neither rated exceptionally in analytics.
The Grizzlies have two great players in their 30s in Gasol or Conley (soon to be) but minimal cap flexibility behind them thanks to Parsons deal and not enough high pedigree young talent. If they get good play out of Harrison, Green, Ennis, Davis and get something out of Parsons, Wright, Evans or Chalmers they could have another good season, but putting their hope on lower level prospects and players with career damaging injuries is a hail mary at best. By RPM their supporting cast is limited enough that it may be the right time to consider trading Conley and Gasol and starting over.
The Grizz are built on the foundation of Conley and Gasol. Conley rated 5th for PGs last year, 6th in 2016, 13th in 2015. Gasol rated 6th for Cs in 2017, 21st in 2016, 4th in 2015. Conley is turning 30 in a few weeks and makes 28.5 mil, 30.5, 32.5, 34.5 (PO). Gasol will be 33 in January and makes 22.6 mil, 24.1, 25.6 (PO). Both are worth their deals next season, but keeping them is a risk their trade value drops as they age.
They owe Parsons 23.1 mil, 24.1, 25.1 mil the next three years who has struggled with health. Parsons finished 63rd for SFs last year after 23rd in 2016 and 11th in 2015. For him to be worth it he would have to bounce back to his his 2015 and 2014 (10th SFs) level. If he continues to struggle it may be the worst contract in the league. Brandan Wright and Tyreke Evans haven't been able to stay healthy for many years but the last time they broke 1000 minutes Wright finished 31st for PFs in 2015 and 18th in 2014, Evans finished 9th for SGs in 2015 and 48th in 2014. Wright makes 5.2, 5.5 mil the next two years and Evans 3.3 mil. They also signed Chalmers at 1.5 mil non-guaranteed, I can't find his 2016 rating on ESPN's RPM chart but in 2015 he finished 31st for PGs and 19th in 2014. For a no-risk signing it appears a solid move.
JaMychal Green just signed a 2 year, 17 mil contract. Green finished 35th for PFs last year after 62nd in 2016 in his first real year for minutes. For his play last year and the chance to improve with more experience, 8.5 million per year on a short deal seems like a reasonable price. Another improving Grizzly is James Ennis who finished 27th for SFs last year in real minutes. Ennis and Green are 27 so they aren't prospects, but are shooters who could establish themselves as starters.
The Grizz signed McLemore who finished 92nd for SGs last year and 455th in the NBA, after 49th for SGs in 2016 and 19th in 2015. McLemore is 24 and a shooter so he has a chance to bounce back but 5.2, 5.5 mil the next two years could end up a burden if he can't play.
They are lost Carter who had a resurgent 8th in RPM for SGs last year and Tony Allen who finished 24th. Randolph had fallen to 60th for PFs.
For prospects 2016 1st Baldwin struggled in the G League and was 81st/dead last for PGs in his few hundred minutes. Andrew Harrison beat him for a rotation spot with a respectable 38th for PGs in RPM in his first real year. At 22 he may be their most promising prospect. Deyonta Davis a had solid defensive performance in the G League. 2017 picks include 2nd round faller Ivan Rabb along with Dillon Brooks, neither rated exceptionally in analytics.
The Grizzlies have two great players in their 30s in Gasol or Conley (soon to be) but minimal cap flexibility behind them thanks to Parsons deal and not enough high pedigree young talent. If they get good play out of Harrison, Green, Ennis, Davis and get something out of Parsons, Wright, Evans or Chalmers they could have another good season, but putting their hope on lower level prospects and players with career damaging injuries is a hail mary at best. By RPM their supporting cast is limited enough that it may be the right time to consider trading Conley and Gasol and starting over.
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Dr Positivity
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Re: "If your team went all in on RPM"
Through half of teams, moves that go against national media consensus the most:
- Lakers: Trade Ingram if teams are offering a king's ransom
- Celtics: Trade Brown if offers high like Ingram. Trade Horford
- Bulls: Trade LaVine to avoid either paying him or losing him for nothing (similar to Sixers/Noel)
- Hornets: Build around Zeller as other franchise player with Kemba, trade Dwight
- Mavericks: Trade Barnes
- Clippers: Listen to Griffin offers
- Warriors: Bench McCaw or have him on short leash
- Pacers: Oladipo/Sabonis was great return for 1 year of George
- Lakers: Trade Ingram if teams are offering a king's ransom
- Celtics: Trade Brown if offers high like Ingram. Trade Horford
- Bulls: Trade LaVine to avoid either paying him or losing him for nothing (similar to Sixers/Noel)
- Hornets: Build around Zeller as other franchise player with Kemba, trade Dwight
- Mavericks: Trade Barnes
- Clippers: Listen to Griffin offers
- Warriors: Bench McCaw or have him on short leash
- Pacers: Oladipo/Sabonis was great return for 1 year of George
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Dr Positivity
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Re: "If your team went all in on RPM"
Miami Heat
The Heat’s highest paid player is the 28 year old Whiteside who makes 23.7 mil, 25.4, 27.1 (PO) the next three years. Whiteside finished 11th in RPM for Cs in 2017, 19th in 2016 and 18th in 2015. For his track record he is slightly overpaid but can still improve having only played two and a half real seasons.
Dragic makes 17 mil, 18.1, 19.2 (PO) the next three years. He rated 20th for PGs in 2017, 10th in 2016 and 24th in 2015. He makes starter to slightly above average starter salary so his contract is reasonable, but for a 31 year old barely enough so that it could be a good idea for the Heat to move his deal when they can.
James Johnson’s new deal makes 13.9 mil, 14.7, 15.4, 16.0 (PO) the next four years. He rated 10th for PFs last year, 56th in 2016 and 17th in 2015. At his 2017 and 2015 play and being paid less than average starter’s salary his contract would be worth it, but being 30 and an athleticism driven player could be a problem going forward for him continuing to live up to it.
Waiters makes 11 mil, 11.6, 12.1, 12.7 the next four years. He finished 25th for SGs last year, 48th in 2016 and 59th in For his play last year his contract would be reasonable for a 25 year old, but he is a regression candidate.
Olynyk makes 10.6 mil, 11.1, 11.7, 12.2 (PO) the next four years. He finished 26th for Cs in 2017, 7th in 2016 and 5th in 2015. Considering his 2016 and 2015 play his contract presents solid upside for a 26 year old.
Josh Richardson extended for 9.4 mil, 10.1, 10.9, 11.6 (PO) starting next season. Richardson finished 50th for SGs last year and 20th in 2016. As a 24 year old 3 and D player with his 2016 track record he has a chance to meet that contract but is a minor risk.
Tyler Johnson makes 5.9, 19.2, 19.2 (PO) the next three years on his backloaded offer sheet deal. Johnson finished 19th for SGs last year, 30th in 2016, 29th in 2015. At 25 he would have to improve to above average starter level to be worth the raise in his contract.
Ellington makes 6.3 million expiring and finished 15th for SGs last year, 69th in 2016 and 23rd in 2015. He has potential to be a bargain. McGruder on 1.3 mil, 1.5 team options the next two years finished a solid 46th for SGs in 2017 for a 26 year old rookie.
For prospects Winslow only played 18 games last year, but in his rookie season in 2016 finished 30th for SFs. Adebayo was not loved by analytics but had an impressive summer league.
The Heat owe a lot of salary going forward to Whiteside, Dragic, James Johnson, Tyler Johnson, Waiters, Olynyk, Richardson. By RPM the most favourable of those deals is Olynyk and they should consider trade Dragic considering he is barely worth his contract as is and is 31. James Johnson could also be traded considering he is over 30. Whiteside could be traded if he does not make a great leap in his game to start the season. Waiters, Richardson and Tyler Johnson have a chance to improve to meet their salaries but could be traded if the opportunity is there. As a team badly needing top 10 players at their position, built around 28-31 year olds in Whiteside, James Johnson, Dragic, there is a good argument for the Heat to break up this nucleus and use draft picks and capspace in search of elite talents.
The Heat’s highest paid player is the 28 year old Whiteside who makes 23.7 mil, 25.4, 27.1 (PO) the next three years. Whiteside finished 11th in RPM for Cs in 2017, 19th in 2016 and 18th in 2015. For his track record he is slightly overpaid but can still improve having only played two and a half real seasons.
Dragic makes 17 mil, 18.1, 19.2 (PO) the next three years. He rated 20th for PGs in 2017, 10th in 2016 and 24th in 2015. He makes starter to slightly above average starter salary so his contract is reasonable, but for a 31 year old barely enough so that it could be a good idea for the Heat to move his deal when they can.
James Johnson’s new deal makes 13.9 mil, 14.7, 15.4, 16.0 (PO) the next four years. He rated 10th for PFs last year, 56th in 2016 and 17th in 2015. At his 2017 and 2015 play and being paid less than average starter’s salary his contract would be worth it, but being 30 and an athleticism driven player could be a problem going forward for him continuing to live up to it.
Waiters makes 11 mil, 11.6, 12.1, 12.7 the next four years. He finished 25th for SGs last year, 48th in 2016 and 59th in For his play last year his contract would be reasonable for a 25 year old, but he is a regression candidate.
Olynyk makes 10.6 mil, 11.1, 11.7, 12.2 (PO) the next four years. He finished 26th for Cs in 2017, 7th in 2016 and 5th in 2015. Considering his 2016 and 2015 play his contract presents solid upside for a 26 year old.
Josh Richardson extended for 9.4 mil, 10.1, 10.9, 11.6 (PO) starting next season. Richardson finished 50th for SGs last year and 20th in 2016. As a 24 year old 3 and D player with his 2016 track record he has a chance to meet that contract but is a minor risk.
Tyler Johnson makes 5.9, 19.2, 19.2 (PO) the next three years on his backloaded offer sheet deal. Johnson finished 19th for SGs last year, 30th in 2016, 29th in 2015. At 25 he would have to improve to above average starter level to be worth the raise in his contract.
Ellington makes 6.3 million expiring and finished 15th for SGs last year, 69th in 2016 and 23rd in 2015. He has potential to be a bargain. McGruder on 1.3 mil, 1.5 team options the next two years finished a solid 46th for SGs in 2017 for a 26 year old rookie.
For prospects Winslow only played 18 games last year, but in his rookie season in 2016 finished 30th for SFs. Adebayo was not loved by analytics but had an impressive summer league.
The Heat owe a lot of salary going forward to Whiteside, Dragic, James Johnson, Tyler Johnson, Waiters, Olynyk, Richardson. By RPM the most favourable of those deals is Olynyk and they should consider trade Dragic considering he is barely worth his contract as is and is 31. James Johnson could also be traded considering he is over 30. Whiteside could be traded if he does not make a great leap in his game to start the season. Waiters, Richardson and Tyler Johnson have a chance to improve to meet their salaries but could be traded if the opportunity is there. As a team badly needing top 10 players at their position, built around 28-31 year olds in Whiteside, James Johnson, Dragic, there is a good argument for the Heat to break up this nucleus and use draft picks and capspace in search of elite talents.
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Dr Positivity
- Posts: 331
- Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 6:44 pm
Re: "If your team went all in on RPM"
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks franchise player is Giannis who finished 5th for SFs in RPM after 17th in 2016 and 20th in 2015. Turning 23 a few months into the season he is on track to be one of the best players in the league. He makes 22.5 mil, 24.2, 25.8, 27.5 the next four years which is solid value for the Bucks.
Middleton only played 29 games last year but finished 6th for SFs in 2016 and 3rd in 2015. At 26 he is just entering his prime and highly undervalued at 14.1 mil, 13, 13 (PO) the next three years.
Brogdan finished an excellent 18th for PGs for a rookie. While he is turning 25 in a few months, he should have room to improve from experience alone and become a top 10 player at his position. He will be one of the biggest bargains in the league making 1.3 mil, 1.5 (TO) the next two years. Maker finished a reasonable 54th for PFs for a rookie in limited minutes. Their 2017 pick D.J. Wilson had below average analytics. A potential sleeper is Gary Payton II who rated very highly in some analytics boards in his draft.
A major decision for the Bucks will be Jabari Parker who is extension eligible and is reportedly asking for a max deal. Parker finished 45th for PFs last year, after 70th in 2016 and 57th in 2015, and has two ACL tears in his first three years. While Parker is only 22, considering he rates as a non starting caliber player, when added to his medical status it’s a NO BRAINER by RPM to not touch that max contract, or above 20 million a year. The health alone is a mammoth risk he can barely play and becomes a franchise crippling deal, before considering even if healthy he would have to make major strides to come near star value. Considering he’s likely to have bidders next summer for a high pedigree draft pick who averaged 20 points a game at 21, it would likely be the best move to trade him for value now.
Monroe at 17.9 mil expiring finished 15th for Cs last year, 25th in 2016 and 8th in 2015. His value is solid. Henson makes 11.4 mil, 10.6, 9.7 the next three seasons and finished 64th for PFs in 2017, 59th in 2016 and 54th in 2015, making him a negative contract. Dellavedova makes 9.6 mil, 9.6, 9.6 the next three years and finished 46th for PGs in 2017, 18th in 2016 and 28th in 2015. Considering his 2016 and 2015 play his contract is reasonable, he struggled last year without Lebron but Giannis is one of the best replacements for that role. Teletovic at 10.5 mil, 10.5 the next two years finished 60th for PFs in 2017, 41st in 2016 and 46th in 2015, making his deal pricey for an average bench player.
Snell resigned for 9.8 mil, 10.6, 11.4, 12.2 (PO) the next four and finished 33rd for SGs in 2017, 28th in 2016, 28th in 2015. For his bench player’s salary his value as a fringe starter is reasonable and can improve at 25.
The Bucks have an impressive core with two players who’ve already been stars for their position in Giannis and Middleton and another with star potential in Brogdon. By RPM Parker's deal is a potential franchise crippling bullet they should dodge, and look to get value for while they can. They should try to move Henson and Teletovic and possibly Dellavedova. Considering Brogdon and Middleton's combined salary is as big a bargain as it is, if they can clear capspace they would have the room to make a move to solidify their core. Resigning Monroe could be an option if he comes undervalued with how the NBA sees bigs of his type nowadays.
The Bucks franchise player is Giannis who finished 5th for SFs in RPM after 17th in 2016 and 20th in 2015. Turning 23 a few months into the season he is on track to be one of the best players in the league. He makes 22.5 mil, 24.2, 25.8, 27.5 the next four years which is solid value for the Bucks.
Middleton only played 29 games last year but finished 6th for SFs in 2016 and 3rd in 2015. At 26 he is just entering his prime and highly undervalued at 14.1 mil, 13, 13 (PO) the next three years.
Brogdan finished an excellent 18th for PGs for a rookie. While he is turning 25 in a few months, he should have room to improve from experience alone and become a top 10 player at his position. He will be one of the biggest bargains in the league making 1.3 mil, 1.5 (TO) the next two years. Maker finished a reasonable 54th for PFs for a rookie in limited minutes. Their 2017 pick D.J. Wilson had below average analytics. A potential sleeper is Gary Payton II who rated very highly in some analytics boards in his draft.
A major decision for the Bucks will be Jabari Parker who is extension eligible and is reportedly asking for a max deal. Parker finished 45th for PFs last year, after 70th in 2016 and 57th in 2015, and has two ACL tears in his first three years. While Parker is only 22, considering he rates as a non starting caliber player, when added to his medical status it’s a NO BRAINER by RPM to not touch that max contract, or above 20 million a year. The health alone is a mammoth risk he can barely play and becomes a franchise crippling deal, before considering even if healthy he would have to make major strides to come near star value. Considering he’s likely to have bidders next summer for a high pedigree draft pick who averaged 20 points a game at 21, it would likely be the best move to trade him for value now.
Monroe at 17.9 mil expiring finished 15th for Cs last year, 25th in 2016 and 8th in 2015. His value is solid. Henson makes 11.4 mil, 10.6, 9.7 the next three seasons and finished 64th for PFs in 2017, 59th in 2016 and 54th in 2015, making him a negative contract. Dellavedova makes 9.6 mil, 9.6, 9.6 the next three years and finished 46th for PGs in 2017, 18th in 2016 and 28th in 2015. Considering his 2016 and 2015 play his contract is reasonable, he struggled last year without Lebron but Giannis is one of the best replacements for that role. Teletovic at 10.5 mil, 10.5 the next two years finished 60th for PFs in 2017, 41st in 2016 and 46th in 2015, making his deal pricey for an average bench player.
Snell resigned for 9.8 mil, 10.6, 11.4, 12.2 (PO) the next four and finished 33rd for SGs in 2017, 28th in 2016, 28th in 2015. For his bench player’s salary his value as a fringe starter is reasonable and can improve at 25.
The Bucks have an impressive core with two players who’ve already been stars for their position in Giannis and Middleton and another with star potential in Brogdon. By RPM Parker's deal is a potential franchise crippling bullet they should dodge, and look to get value for while they can. They should try to move Henson and Teletovic and possibly Dellavedova. Considering Brogdon and Middleton's combined salary is as big a bargain as it is, if they can clear capspace they would have the room to make a move to solidify their core. Resigning Monroe could be an option if he comes undervalued with how the NBA sees bigs of his type nowadays.
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Dr Positivity
- Posts: 331
- Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 6:44 pm
Re: "If your team went all in on RPM"
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are now built around the star combination of Butler and Towns. Butler finished 3rd in RPM in 2017 for SFs and 5th in 2016 and 2015. At 19.3 mil, 20.4, 19.8 (PO) the next 3 years he is still underpaid for a star. With LaVine finishing 63rd for SGs in RPM last year, 58th in 2016, 62nd in 2015, this is a massive upgrade. Towns finished 10th for Cs last year after 23rd as a rookie, and turning 22 shortly is on track for stardom. As a comparison in Anthony Davis' 2nd season he was 17th for PFs before jumping to 1st in his 3rd.
Dieng finished 6th for Cs in 2017, 10th in 2016 and 28th in 2015 and makes an undervalued 14.1 mil, 15.2, 16.2, 17.3 the next four years for his play the last two years. Teague finished 16th for PGs in 2017, 27th in 2016 and 15th in 2015. At 19 mil the next two years his salary is slightly overpaid for his track record, although not terrible for an average starter. He is also a downgrade from Rubio who finished 9th in 2017, 5th in 2016 and 11th in 2015 for PGs.
Wiggins finished 52nd for SGs in 2017, 36th in 2016 and 43rd as a rookie in 2015. He has seemingly been close to signing a 5 year, 148 million extension for months. Wiggins is 22 so he has a chance to improve but by RPM this could be a disastrous overpayment for a player who hasn't proven he's starting caliber yet, and they have should have every reason to let him play out this season before committing salary like that to him.
Bjelica finished 29th for PFs in 2017 and 21st in 2016 and is on a cheap 3.9 mil expiring. Gibson who finished 33rd in 2017 for PFs, 24th in 2016, 40th in 2015 and signed for 14 mil the next two years. Especially considering how his role overlaps with Dieng's this is an overpayment by RPM. Crawford finished 81st for SGs in 2017, 56th in 2016 and 47th in 2015 and makes 4.3 mil, 4.5 (PO) the next two years. While taking the risk for one year could be acceptable, the 2nd year player option seems like a risk for a player at this stage of his career. Aldrich has never finished over 1000 minutes in a season, but finished 30th for Cs in 2017 after a promising 3rd in 2016 and 42nd in 2015. At 7.3 mil, 7.0 mil non-guaranteed his price is reasonable considering some signs he's showing.
Muhammad finished 1.6 mil, 1.8 (PO) and finished 62nd in 2017, 59th in 2016 and 34th in 2015. At 24 and at that cheap a price he's hardly a risk, but the Timberwolves could use his rotation spot on more productive players. Tyus Jones finished 27th in 2017 for PGs after 53rd in 2016. At 21 he has breakout potential. Their 1st round pick Justin Patton had average analytics with youth as one of his best assets.
With Towns and Butler the Wolves have a great star combo to build around, other starter caliber players like Dieng and Teague and a fringe starter in Bjelica are in place to help them win this year. However for a team that was close to greatness by RPM if they had kept Rubio, Butler, Towns, Dieng and surrounded them with RPM friendly signings, they may have hurt themselves by trading Rubio for a downgrade in Teague and being on the verge of wildly overpaying Wiggins according to RPM. If following RPM they would cash in on Wiggins trade value, look to clear salaries like Gibson and Crawford and use the capspace to complete their core before Towns max post rookie contract kicks in.
The Timberwolves are now built around the star combination of Butler and Towns. Butler finished 3rd in RPM in 2017 for SFs and 5th in 2016 and 2015. At 19.3 mil, 20.4, 19.8 (PO) the next 3 years he is still underpaid for a star. With LaVine finishing 63rd for SGs in RPM last year, 58th in 2016, 62nd in 2015, this is a massive upgrade. Towns finished 10th for Cs last year after 23rd as a rookie, and turning 22 shortly is on track for stardom. As a comparison in Anthony Davis' 2nd season he was 17th for PFs before jumping to 1st in his 3rd.
Dieng finished 6th for Cs in 2017, 10th in 2016 and 28th in 2015 and makes an undervalued 14.1 mil, 15.2, 16.2, 17.3 the next four years for his play the last two years. Teague finished 16th for PGs in 2017, 27th in 2016 and 15th in 2015. At 19 mil the next two years his salary is slightly overpaid for his track record, although not terrible for an average starter. He is also a downgrade from Rubio who finished 9th in 2017, 5th in 2016 and 11th in 2015 for PGs.
Wiggins finished 52nd for SGs in 2017, 36th in 2016 and 43rd as a rookie in 2015. He has seemingly been close to signing a 5 year, 148 million extension for months. Wiggins is 22 so he has a chance to improve but by RPM this could be a disastrous overpayment for a player who hasn't proven he's starting caliber yet, and they have should have every reason to let him play out this season before committing salary like that to him.
Bjelica finished 29th for PFs in 2017 and 21st in 2016 and is on a cheap 3.9 mil expiring. Gibson who finished 33rd in 2017 for PFs, 24th in 2016, 40th in 2015 and signed for 14 mil the next two years. Especially considering how his role overlaps with Dieng's this is an overpayment by RPM. Crawford finished 81st for SGs in 2017, 56th in 2016 and 47th in 2015 and makes 4.3 mil, 4.5 (PO) the next two years. While taking the risk for one year could be acceptable, the 2nd year player option seems like a risk for a player at this stage of his career. Aldrich has never finished over 1000 minutes in a season, but finished 30th for Cs in 2017 after a promising 3rd in 2016 and 42nd in 2015. At 7.3 mil, 7.0 mil non-guaranteed his price is reasonable considering some signs he's showing.
Muhammad finished 1.6 mil, 1.8 (PO) and finished 62nd in 2017, 59th in 2016 and 34th in 2015. At 24 and at that cheap a price he's hardly a risk, but the Timberwolves could use his rotation spot on more productive players. Tyus Jones finished 27th in 2017 for PGs after 53rd in 2016. At 21 he has breakout potential. Their 1st round pick Justin Patton had average analytics with youth as one of his best assets.
With Towns and Butler the Wolves have a great star combo to build around, other starter caliber players like Dieng and Teague and a fringe starter in Bjelica are in place to help them win this year. However for a team that was close to greatness by RPM if they had kept Rubio, Butler, Towns, Dieng and surrounded them with RPM friendly signings, they may have hurt themselves by trading Rubio for a downgrade in Teague and being on the verge of wildly overpaying Wiggins according to RPM. If following RPM they would cash in on Wiggins trade value, look to clear salaries like Gibson and Crawford and use the capspace to complete their core before Towns max post rookie contract kicks in.