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Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:25 pm
by knarsu3
Are we allowed to have multiple win projections? I have 5 that I'm developing:
1) that uses my own PM metric that I'm developing
2) an multiyear RPM-PTPM (Player Tracking Plus-Minus) blend
3) multiyear RPM
4) an adjusted multiyear RPM that weights offense more heavily
5) an adjusted multiyear RPM-PTPM blend that weighs offense more heavily
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:28 pm
by mtpowell22
Hey guys!
I spoke with DSMok1 about a web applications that I’ve just finished up the first version of:
http://www.wintotals.com that lets users compete in predicting the records of each team for the 2017-2018 season. If you guys want to store your projections there for this competition it could serve as an automated approach to scoring and you can keep up with your projections versus other entries during the season. As you'll see it's a work in progress but I plan to release in-season projections for each person's entry based on current team records (sometime in November - basically a standings page).
To join the APBRmetrics contest input code:
c4493d41 in the "Leagues" page after you "Join A League".
Scoring:
I plan to calculate scores by summing the win differences for each team, so the contest champion is the entry with a score closest to 0. I've seen you guys talk about other scoring approaches so open to discussing those.
Also, any feedback or ideas on how to make this more fun are more than welcome.
Miles
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:54 pm
by jgoldstein34
knarsu3 wrote:Are we allowed to have multiple win projections? I have 5 that I'm developing:
1) that uses my own PM metric that I'm developing
2) an multiyear RPM-PTPM (Player Tracking Plus-Minus) blend
3) multiyear RPM
4) an adjusted multiyear RPM that weights offense more heavily
5) an adjusted multiyear RPM-PTPM blend that weighs offense more heavily
I see no reason you can't submit multiple as long as you only pick one to count for "winning" the contest.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:09 pm
by jgoldstein34
I think these are my final projections
Code: Select all
ATL 25.6
BOS 48.6
BRK 28.8
CHI 27.4
CHO 45.9
CLE 51.2
DAL 29.1
DEN 47.0
DET 41.4
GSW 65.0
HOU 58.1
IND 28.1
LAC 46.7
LAL 28.9
MEM 37.5
MIA 38.4
MIL 48.0
MIN 47.6
NOP 38.2
NYK 34.1
OKC 56.4
ORL 33.9
PHI 38.3
PHO 31.4
POR 42.1
SAC 20.9
SAS 53.0
TOR 49.2
UTA 41.5
WAS 47.6
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:45 pm
by shadow
Here are 538's projections via
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/
Code: Select all
ATL 26
BOS 47
BRK 29
CHA 46
CHI 27
CLE 56
DAL 30
DEN 49
DET 35
GSW 63
HOU 57
IND 32
LAC 46
LAL 32
MEM 35
MIA 40
MIL 44
MIN 50
NOP 43
NYK 30
OKC 54
ORL 37
PHI 40
PHX 31
POR 41
SAC 24
SAS 50
TOR 45
UTA 46
WAS 46
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:50 pm
by RyanRiot
Here's mine. Went with 60% RPM/BPM blend, 30% implied Vegas totals, and 10% last year Pythagorean wins. Probably too high on those last two, but I thought it might be aluable to get some volatility in there.
Code: Select all
ATL 28.8
BKN 30.3
BOS 46.6
CHA 44.4
CHI 28.2
CLE 53.2
DAL 32.5
DEN 45.9
DET 36.6
GSW 66.2
HOU 56.6
IND 32.8
LAC 48.2
LAL 29
MEM 36.2
MIA 42.2
MIL 45.3
MIN 47.5
NOP 41
NYK 31.2
OKC 50.3
ORL 32.9
PHI 35.8
PHX 28
POR 41.4
SAC 26.5
SAS 54.3
TOR 47.4
UTA 43
WAS 47.8
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 6:33 pm
by AJbaskets
Here are my final Richard Jefferson bombshell included projections. Made with a blend of PT-PM and RAPM:
ATL 34.6
BKN 28.1
BOS 49.2
CHA 46.3
CHI 30.6
CLE 53.4
DAL 32.3
DEN 43.1
DET 34.7
GSW 69.0
HOU 55.4
IND 36.5
LAC 53.5
LAL 27.2
MEM 35.4
MIA 42.8
MIL 42.0
MIN 47.1
NOP 41.1
NYK 32.8
OKC 45.6
ORL 33.6
PHI 35.1
PHX 25.8
POR 40.0
SAC 25.2
SAS 53.0
TOR 46.6
UTA 41.5
WAS 48.7
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:56 pm
by sbs
Here are mine:
GSW 66.3
HOU 56.4
CLE 54.3
SAS 53.7
OKC 51.9
BOS 49.5
MIN 48.5
WAS 47.5
TOR 47.2
MIL 46.6
LAC 45.7
DEN 45.5
CHH 44.9
MIA 43.1
POR 41.5
NOP 41.3
UTA 40.9
DET 37.1
MEM 37.1
PHI 36.0
DAL 33.8
ORL 33.4
IND 31.9
LAL 30.5
NYK 30.1
BKN 28.1
PHX 28.0
ATL 27.5
CHI 25.9
SAC 25.9
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:46 am
by sndesai1
Code: Select all
ATL 25
BOS 47
BRK 33
CHA 42
CHI 21
CLE 54
DAL 31
DEN 46
DET 36
GSW 69
HOU 61
IND 33
LAC 47
LAL 30
MEM 35
MIA 40
MIL 46
MIN 50
NOP 40
NYK 31
OKC 54
ORL 33
PHI 38
PHO 29
POR 42
SAC 29
SAS 47
TOR 47
UTA 46
WAS 48
revised in light of mirotic getting knocked out
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:29 am
by mtpowell22
Reminder that if you want automated scoring and in-season standings, put your projections in at
www.wintotals.com and join us in League ID: c4493d41
Picks will lock before tipoff tomorrow night
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:45 am
by GK5
Good luck everyone!
Team Decimal-W Wins
GSW 62.98 63
SAS 58.10 58
HOU 55.14 55
CLE 51.40 52
DEN 49.94 50
LAC 49.20 49
MIN 49.13 49
TOR 48.00 48
BOS 47.95 48
OKC 46.81 47
WAS 45.20 45
CHA 44.98 45
UTA 44.94 45
NOP 43.30 43
MIA 42.91 43
MIL 42.51 43
POR 40.21 40
DET 36.89 37
MEM 36.81 37
DAL 36.24 36
ORL 33.31 33
IND 32.93 33
PHX 32.31 32
LAL 30.25 30
PHI 29.45 30
ATL 28.60 29
NYK 28.50 29
CHI 28.28 28
BRK 27.38 27
SAC 26.35 26
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:15 am
by tarrazu
mtpowell22 wrote:Reminder that if you want automated scoring and in-season standings, put your projections in at
http://www.wintotals.com and join us in League ID: c4493d41
Picks will lock before tipoff tomorrow night
Got this message:
"You do not have access to this league or it does not exist. Please return to the “Leagues” home page to join or create a league."
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:12 am
by AcrossTheCourt
CLE E 55.6 GSW W 68.0
MIL E 47.9 HOU W 58.5
TOR E 47.9 SAS W 52.9
BOS E 47.5 OKC W 52.0
WAS E 47.2 LAC W 50.9
CHA E 46.7 MIN W 49.8
MIA E 44.8 DEN W 46.5
DET E 35.2 NOP W 44.9
ORL E 33.3 UTA W 43.9
IND E 30.9 POR W 42.1
PHI E 30.3 MEM W 38.2
NYK E 28.4 DAL W 32.3
BKN E 28.0 LAL W 25.7
CHI E 26.2 PHX W 24.8
ATL E 25.1 SAC W 24.4
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:02 pm
by Mike G
So far, we have 12 entries plus 538, and we collectively predict 48 wins for the T-Wolves. Vegas concurs, at 47.
But this team has under-won, relative to their season point-differential, for 10 straight seasons.
Most or all of our 'systems' predict scoring margin, and translate that into wins, yes?
Last year, Minny 'should have won' 38 but took just 31 -- minus 7. Previous years: -3, -4, -8...
Looking up the last 3 seasons' over-unders, weighting them by recency (4-3-2), we get these weighted averages:
Code: Select all
Wins-PythW Wins-PythW
GSW 3.8 Min -5.1
Mem 3.7 Uta -3.2
Was 2.5 Cha -2.4
Atl 2.0 Phx -2.1
Bos 1.5 Phl -2.0
Mil 1.3 Brk -1.8
Hou 1.3 Det -1.5
Chi 1.2 Den -1.5
Cle 1.1 NYK -1.1
Orl 1.0 NOP -0.8
Dal 0.8 Sac -0.8
Tor 0.6 LAL -0.5
SAS 0.5 LAC -0.5
Por 0.5 Ind -0.4
Mia 0.2
Okl 0.2
It may be coaching, or it may be a 'culture' of winning/losing that drives these things.
Three seasons is of course a small sample size; and beyond 3 years, things may have changed.
I'm considering adding 1/2 or 1/3 of these values to all teams' win projections.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:38 pm
by mtpowell22
tarrazu wrote:mtpowell22 wrote:Reminder that if you want automated scoring and in-season standings, put your projections in at
http://www.wintotals.com and join us in League ID: c4493d41
Picks will lock before tipoff tomorrow night
Got this message:
"You do not have access to this league or it does not exist. Please return to the “Leagues” home page to join or create a league."
Had you logged in already? Try again if you can as others have been successfully joining. Let me know if you continue to have this problem