player rankings 2019-20

[Mike G]

...DeRozan is 313th on 1 yr PIPM. 157th on RPM. 290th on RAPM. 352th on Luck Adjusted RAPM.

Popovich has a lottery team record right now. Lineup management is a contributing reason for that. The 5 guys with the worst raw on court plus minus / 100 possessions are the 5 starters...

I don't consider ranking by strictly per-minute numbers, since you may have one good minute and stop there. Or 40 or 400, but it's only by being on the court that you actually contribute. The lowest minute guys are largely working in garbage time, in fractional possessions, in special-occasion lineups...

The Spurs are a very nearly average (SRS -0.8) team, so if their starters are losing in the plus-minus tallies, the bench must be mopping up. This seems to be typical of a deep team that doesn't have 3 or 4 super starters. The bench mob of course tends to play against other non-starters, so they just have to be better than the typical 6-thru-10 guys to look good.

For some reason, DeRozan has been 1st or 2nd in minutes for many years, for good teams with good coaches.
This year's .604 TS% is by far a career high. Reb% and Ast% well above career avg. Usg% at 7 year low.

[Crow]

27% usage still driving his PER higher than other metrics.

Never above plus 2 in regular season on BPM and never even 0 / neutral on that in playoffs.

1 and 3 yr RAPM factor show very little impact on team efg%. He doesn't turn it over but he also doesn't offensive rebound. In 3 yr he helps team ft rate but not in 1 yr.

1 trip past second round in 11 years.

It is much less favorable on the metrics that cover defense and on / off better.

Raptors traded him and broke thru. Spurs have stalled and regressed with him. No extension yet. Is it coming? What will be achieved if it does?

[Mike G]

Top 1-2 punches in the league, ala previous table.

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   26.9   LAL
13.6   LeBron James   
13.3   Anthony Davis   
   24.1   Hou
16.3   James Harden   
 7.8   Russell Westbrook   
   23.5   Mil
15.0   Giannis Antetokounmpo
 8.5   Khris Middleton   
   23.3   Por
14.1   Damian Lillard   
 9.2   Hassan Whiteside   
   22.0   Mia
11.1   Jimmy Butler   
10.9   Bam Adebayo   

LeBron + AD are dishing out as much as some (6) teams are projecting to win.

Big Threes:

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   32.2   LAL
13.6   LeBron James   
13.3   Anthony Davis   
 5.3   Dwight Howard   
   29.6   Mil
15.0   Giannis Antetokounmpo
 8.5   Khris Middleton   
 6.0   Eric Bledsoe   
   29.0   Hou
16.3   James Harden   
 7.8   Russell Westbrook   
 4.9   Robert Covington   
   28.3   Por
14.1   Damian Lillard   
 9.2   Hassan Whiteside   
 5.0   CJ McCollum   
   27.4   Mia
11.1   Jimmy Butler   
10.9   Bam Adebayo   
 5.4   Duncan Robinson   

Note that these are the same Top 5, and none of the #3's are stars. Some will be seen to slip from the list.

top Top 4's

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   37.4   LAL
13.6   LeBron James   
13.3   Anthony Davis   
 5.3   Dwight Howard   
 5.1   JaVale McGee   
   35.2   Mil
15.0   Giannis Antetokounmpo
 8.5   Khris Middleton   
 6.0   Eric Bledsoe   
 5.6   Brook Lopez   
   33.5   Hou
16.3   James Harden   
 7.8   Russell Westbrook   
 4.9   Robert Covington   
 4.5   P.J. Tucker   
   31.9   OKC
10.4   Chris Paul   
 7.4   Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
 7.1   Danilo Gallinari   
 7.0   Steven Adams   
   31.6   Phl
11.1   Ben Simmons   
 7.6   Joel Embiid   
 6.8   Tobias Harris   
 6.2   Al Horford   

A couple of deeply balanced teams appear. OKC has the best 4th-best player, whoever it is.

[Crow]

Bucks not tops on any of these. Tops when everyone is included. That might not the typical way to win a title. Though the display did not highlight "best player" by self, which is Giannis by this.

Clippers nowhere to seen here. Might surprise some on the duo list.

[Mike G]

Giannis is better than Harden per minute, but he doesn't play as much. Harden actually has 5 seasons of more minutes than any from Giannis; and he's headed for a 6th.

Bucks overtake Lakers at 1 thru 7, where Ilyasova (3.4) appears to do more than Caruso (2.1)

I'm not sure of a reasonable way to display all this in one view. Here are team wins from 1 thru 5 and 6 thru 10 players (ranked by total)

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tm     1-5   6-10
Mil   40.3   14.8
LAL   41.5   10.7
Dal   32.4   19.7
Tor   31.2   17.7
Mia   35.3   13.6
Phl   35.9   12.7
Bos   33.8   14.7
LAC   32.9   15.6
Uta   36.0   11.8
Den   33.5   13.3
Hou   37.7    8.3
OKC   37.5    8.1
Ind   29.9   12.9
SAS   29.5   10.7
Por   33.0    6.1
NOP   26.0   12.1
Orl   25.9   12.2
Brk   30.2    7.8
Mem   25.9   11.9
Phx   26.6   10.6
Sac   28.1    7.5
Was   22.7   10.4
Cle   27.6    4.3
Chi   24.3    7.4
Atl   23.6    7.2
Det   18.8   10.0
Cha   21.7    6.4
NYK   20.6    6.3
Min   18.9    3.1
GSW   16.0    3.2

Towns has .424 of the Wolves' total (1-10) win projection. Next is Lillard at .356 of the Blazers.
At the other end, Kemba leads Bos with .162 of theirs.

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8.3	Kemba Walker
8.0	Jayson Tatum
6.0	Gordon Hayward
5.8	Daniel Theis
5.7	Jaylen Brown
5.1	Marcus Smart
4.4	Enes Kanter
2.3	Brad Wanamaker
1.5	Robert Williams
1.4	Grant Williams

I didn't go beyond 10 players per team. At that, teams avg 39.9 wins, so on avg about 1 win from beyond #10

Clippers have the best #7 guy, Beverley. Paul George is 4th best #5 guy, in just 38% of team minutes.
Raptors' #10 (Boucher) is better than the Wolves' #3 (Okogie)

[Crow]

That is all useful.

[Crow]

BPM(2), Expected Plus Minus. New things that could compared with other metrics. If interested.