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Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil
Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 4:50 pm
by rlee
Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis:
http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... is-9-6-20/
Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:06 am
by Mike G
Heat 3 ,
Bucks 1
avg score 115.3 - 109.0
Pyth wins 2.71 - 1.29 , eWins 2.35 - 1.65
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e493
.70 Antetokounmpo Mil 30 .534 26.2 14.1 5.2 .9 3.4 1.5 2.92
.70 Bam Adebayo Mia 38 .695 19.7 13.7 4.5 1.0 1.8 .5 2.27
.63 Jimmy Butler Mia 37 .633 27.6 5.0 3.7 2.0 2.6 .3 2.14
.58 Khris Middleton Mil 39 .556 23.7 5.7 5.3 1.4 2.6 .2 1.86
.47 Goran Dragić Mia 36 .554 20.7 5.4 4.8 1.6 1.9 .3 1.65
.29 Brook Lopez Mil 35 .717 17.8 5.2 .4 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.03
.24 Jae Crowder Mia 34 .638 15.1 6.7 2.5 .5 1.7 .3 .87
.13 Tyler Herro Mia 31 .510 12.7 5.7 3.0 .0 2.0 .0 .53
.12 Kelly Olynyk Mia 8 .783 18.9 10.0 4.0 .9 1.8 .9 1.79
.11 Eric Bledsoe Mil 25 .463 11.9 8.0 3.2 .7 3.3 .4 .56
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e493
.08 Duncan Robinson Mia 31 .597 11.4 4.0 2.2 .9 1.6 .3 .31
.05 Marvin Williams Mil 21 .410 4.2 8.1 1.9 1.6 .0 .4 .31
.03 Donte DiVincenzo Mil 18 .538 8.1 5.5 2.1 1.3 1.3 .4 .21
.03 George Hill Mil 32 .627 12.1 3.1 2.2 .5 2.4 .0 .11
.01 Kyle Korver Mil 9 .606 11.2 2.4 .0 1.5 .8 .8 .18
-.02 Andre Iguodala Mia 16 .522 5.4 5.0 3.1 1.5 2.0 .5 -.13
-.04 Kendrick Nunn Mia 11 .310 6.0 2.0 1.8 1.3 2.7 .6 -.43
-.04 Pat Connaughton Mil 13 .273 1.9 7.8 .9 .6 1.2 .0 -.41
-.12 Wesley Matthews Mil 25 .500 4.8 3.0 .0 1.1 1.4 .7 -.58
shooting: Mia .592 - .553 Mil
rebounds: 43.5 - 43.5
turnovers: Mia 13.5 - 13.8 Mil
Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:28 pm
by rlee
Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis:
http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... is-9-7-20/
Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil
Posted: Tue Sep 08, 2020 10:04 am
by Mike G
Celtics 3 , Raptors 2
avg score 104.2 - 97.2
Pyth wins 3.58 - 1.42 , eWins 3.04 - 1.96
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.81 Jayson Tatum Bos 39 .544 23.4 8.9 3.5 .7 3.1 .2 1.96
.74 Kemba Walker Bos 37 .617 23.4 3.7 5.7 1.0 2.1 .2 1.91
.60 Kyle Lowry Tor 40 .525 18.5 5.7 5.1 2.0 3.4 .6 1.44
.53 Jaylen Brown Bos 36 .517 19.2 7.8 1.4 1.4 2.6 1.2 1.39
.44 Daniel Theis Bos 29 .593 13.4 12.3 1.6 .8 1.6 2.3 1.48
.43 Fred VanVleet Tor 40 .457 15.2 3.8 4.7 2.0 2.2 .2 1.03
.35 Serge Ibaka Tor 23 .656 17.1 9.7 1.1 .3 1.7 2.0 1.46
.32 Pascal Siakam Tor 38 .459 13.5 6.7 2.2 1.2 1.4 .4 .81
.31 Marcus Smart Bos 36 .582 16.8 6.1 3.6 .8 4.5 .8 .81
.28 Robert Williams Bos 15 .811 17.3 11.0 2.3 .9 1.8 2.1 1.82
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.28 OG Anunoby Tor 36 .614 12.1 7.3 .7 1.2 1.5 1.4 .74
.08 Brad Wanamaker Bos 18 .667 14.1 4.8 1.6 .7 2.2 .4 .42
.06 Marc Gasol Tor 23 .422 7.5 7.7 2.8 1.0 1.6 .6 .27
.01 Matt Thomas Tor 6 .625 8.4 8.1 1.6 .0 1.0 .0 .21
.01 Chris Boucher Tor 5 .333 3.6 8.6 .0 .0 .0 2.4 .12
-.05 Terence Davis Tor 6 .375 7.4 3.0 1.6 .0 3.0 .0 -.82
-.06 Semi Ojeleye Bos 11 .406 5.0 2.2 .0 1.6 .0 .0 -.49
-.07 Norman Powell Tor 21 .467 11.1 1.0 1.2 .3 1.3 .0 -.32
-.08 Grant Williams Bos 13 .583 5.8 2.9 1.2 .0 .5 .5 -.59
shooting: Bos .573 - .505 Tor
rebounds: Bos 45.6 - 39.4 Tor
turnovers: Tor 13.0 - 16.4 Bos
Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil
Posted: Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:15 pm
by rlee
Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis:
http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... is-9-8-20/
Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil
Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:42 am
by Mike G
Heat 4 , Bucks 1
avg score 112.8 - 106.0
pyth wins 3.48 - 1.52 , eWins 2.99 - 2.01
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e490
.82 Jimmy Butler Mia 37 .657 27.1 6.0 4.1 1.8 3.1 .2 2.20
.75 Bam Adebayo Mia 36 .667 19.6 12.6 4.2 .8 2.5 .4 2.04
.73 Antetokounmpo Mil 24 .534 26.6 14.0 5.3 .9 3.4 1.5 3.04
.68 Khris Middleton Mil 39 .522 22.6 5.8 5.2 1.3 3.2 .2 1.69
.54 Goran Dragić Mia 35 .550 20.6 5.2 4.3 1.3 2.2 .2 1.52
.37 Brook Lopez Mil 35 .645 15.7 7.1 .3 .8 1.0 1.5 1.02
.35 Jae Crowder Mia 34 .655 15.6 6.7 2.2 .7 1.4 .4 1.02
.25 Tyler Herro Mia 32 .537 13.3 6.1 3.6 .2 2.2 .2 .75
.21 Kelly Olynyk Mia 10 .750 21.6 10.3 3.3 1.2 3.1 1.8 2.02
.18 Eric Bledsoe Mil 27 .420 10.5 6.4 4.4 1.1 2.7 .8 .66
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e490
.10 Marvin Williams Mil 21 .458 6.1 8.9 1.8 1.2 .3 .3 .47
.09 Donte DiVincenzo Mil 20 .613 11.9 5.4 1.9 1.3 1.7 .3 .46
.04 Duncan Robinson Mia 27 .577 10.7 3.8 2.0 .8 1.7 .3 .15
.03 Andre Iguodala Mia 16 .486 6.3 5.8 3.2 1.5 2.0 1.1 .18
.01 Kyle Korver Mil 9 .622 11.9 2.0 .0 1.3 1.3 .6 .08
-.02 George Hill Mil 31 .538 9.5 3.2 2.2 .4 2.0 .0 -.08
-.04 Kendrick Nunn Mia 13 .339 6.1 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.8 .9 -.28
-.05 Pat Connaughton Mil 13 .321 2.4 7.0 .7 .9 .9 .0 -.36
-.07 Wesley Matthews Mil 26 .534 6.4 2.6 .2 1.4 1.1 1.1 -.27
shooting: Mia .594 - .532 Mil
rebounds: Mia 44.4 - 43.0 Mil
turnovers: Mil 13.2 - 15.2 Mia
Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil
Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:42 pm
by rlee
Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis:
http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... is-9-9-20/
Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil
Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:17 pm
by Mike G
Celtics 3 ,
Raptors 3
avg score 107.2 - 101.8
pyth wins 3.98 - 2.02 , eWins 3.49 - 2.51
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e497
.99 Jayson Tatum Bos 42 .547 22.9 9.2 4.1 .9 3.4 .4 1.98
.83 Kyle Lowry Tor 42 .568 19.8 5.7 5.1 1.9 2.8 .6 1.63
.67 Jaylen Brown Bos 39 .506 19.1 8.7 1.5 1.4 2.5 .9 1.42
.59 Kemba Walker Bos 40 .571 17.6 3.5 5.6 .8 2.1 .2 1.23
.56 Fred VanVleet Tor 42 .453 14.7 4.4 4.9 1.9 2.1 .4 1.11
.50 Marcus Smart Bos 39 .606 17.1 6.6 4.4 .8 3.8 .6 1.07
.49 Daniel Theis Bos 32 .641 13.4 10.7 1.6 .6 1.2 1.9 1.28
.38 Serge Ibaka Tor 23 .667 16.8 9.0 1.0 .2 1.5 2.4 1.39
.32 Pascal Siakam Tor 40 .425 11.7 6.4 2.6 1.2 1.6 .3 .65
.28 Robert Williams Bos 14 .829 16.7 11.1 2.1 .8 1.6 1.9 1.70
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e497
.27 OG Anunoby Tor 38 .591 11.4 7.9 .7 1.1 1.8 1.1 .60
.11 Marc Gasol Tor 21 .449 8.9 7.4 3.0 1.2 1.8 .9 .45
.08 Brad Wanamaker Bos 18 .615 12.8 4.6 1.9 .6 2.2 .6 .34
.03 Norman Powell Tor 24 .537 13.6 1.2 1.2 .7 1.2 .2 .11
.01 Matt Thomas Tor 6 .600 7.8 7.5 1.4 .0 .8 .0 .12
.00 Chris Boucher Tor 4 .333 3.6 8.5 .0 .0 .0 2.4 .10
-.04 Terence Davis Tor 5 .375 7.5 3.0 1.7 .0 3.0 .0 -.72
-.05 Grant Williams Bos 12 .714 7.6 3.0 1.2 .0 .4 .4 -.33
-.07 Semi Ojeleye Bos 10 .382 4.4 2.1 .0 1.5 .0 .0 -.54
shooting: Bos .571 - .514 Tor
rebounds: Bos 47.7 - 40.5 Tor
turnovers: Tor 13.0 - 16.3 Bos
Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil
Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:35 pm
by rlee
Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis:
http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-9-10-20/
Re: 2020 East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil
Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:46 pm
by Mike G
What is up with Pascal Siakam? An all-star this year based on his early season play, he has had declining numbers through the course of the year.
He was out from mid-Dec to mid-Jan, effectively breaking his season up even before the big interruption.
Per 36 minute numbers for his various stints:
Code: Select all
PS20 G mpg tsa 3fg% ts% pts reb blk G36Sc
fall 27 36.6 22.2 .392 .555 24.7 7.9 1.0 17.1
wint 26 34.3 20.7 .322 .563 23.3 7.3 .9 16.8
bubb 7 32.5 18.5 .356 .507 18.7 6.3 .7 11.3
PO 10 37.6 18.0 .192 .462 16.7 6.9 .3 11.1
In the 7 'bubble' games before playoffs, he had reduced minutes. Shots per 36 minutes (TSA) keep dropping, along with TS%. His 3FG% is half what it was in early season.
Game Scores for each interval are multiplied by 36/mpg (final column).
In last night's 2-OT win he had pretty terrible numbers -- ORtg = 70, bpm = -8 -- but led all players with 54 minutes. And the Raps were +12 in those minutes.
In the 4 minutes he sat, they were -9.
Re: 2020 Playoffs, East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil
Posted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:06 pm
by rlee
Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis:
http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-9-11-20/
Re: 2020 Playoffs, East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil
Posted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:26 pm
by Crow
Dunno the full story but Siakam's shot distribution is not as good as desired. If they lose, he will be a leading reason.
Grant Williams 2nd worst impact in the series by this analysis? BPM is very different.
Under 10% usage. Different metrics will react differently to that. PER / Game Score perhaps the most negatively.
Re: 2020 Playoffs, East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil
Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:55 am
by Mike G
Celtics 4, Raptors 3
avg score 105.0 - 99.7
pyth wins 4.66 - 2.34 , eWins 4.08 - 2.92
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e494
1.23 Jayson Tatum Bos 42 .541 23.6 9.3 4.3 .9 3.3 .5 2.07
.88 Kyle Lowry Tor 42 .551 19.0 5.6 4.9 1.6 2.8 .5 1.48
.83 Jaylen Brown Bos 39 .518 19.4 8.4 1.5 1.7 2.4 .8 1.48
.66 Fred VanVleet Tor 42 .460 15.0 4.1 4.9 1.6 2.1 .6 1.10
.66 Kemba Walker Bos 40 .538 16.5 3.8 5.2 .9 2.0 .3 1.15
.61 Marcus Smart Bos 39 .585 16.6 5.8 4.5 1.1 3.4 .7 1.09
.50 Daniel Theis Bos 31 .587 12.5 10.3 1.4 .7 1.3 2.1 1.15
.47 Serge Ibaka Tor 22 .667 18.6 9.5 .9 .2 1.9 2.1 1.47
.38 Pascal Siakam Tor 41 .430 11.8 6.9 2.6 1.0 2.0 .4 .66
.29 Robert Williams Bos 14 .844 15.5 11.1 1.8 .6 1.7 1.6 1.45
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e494
.27 OG Anunoby Tor 38 .585 10.4 7.7 .7 1.0 1.7 1.0 .51
.20 Marc Gasol Tor 21 .436 9.1 7.6 3.3 1.2 1.8 1.2 .65
.05 Brad Wanamaker Bos 17 .580 11.4 4.2 1.8 .5 2.0 .5 .20
.05 Norman Powell Tor 25 .546 13.5 1.6 1.0 .6 1.4 .4 .13
.03 Matt Thomas Tor 6 .682 10.0 7.4 1.3 .0 .7 .0 .36
.01 Chris Boucher Tor 4 .333 3.7 8.4 .0 .0 .0 2.3 .14
-.04 Grant Williams Bos 12 .667 7.6 3.5 1.1 .4 .8 .4 -.22
-.04 Terence Davis Tor 4 .375 7.6 3.0 1.7 .0 3.0 .0 -.60
-.05 Semi Ojeleye Bos 10 .400 5.1 3.1 .0 1.3 .0 .0 -.35
shooting: Bos .556 - .514 Tor
rebounds: Bos 47.1 - 41.0 Tor
turnovers: Tor 13.7 - 15.7 Bos
Re: 2020 Playoffs, East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil
Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:15 pm
by rlee
Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis:
http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-9-12-20/
Re: 2020 Playoffs, East round 2: Bos-Tor & Mia-Mil
Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:29 pm
by Mike G
1st and 2nd round summary stats gleaned from b-r.com
Code: Select all
Raptors 1: Min PER WS/48 BPM 2: Min PER WS/48 BPM
Kyle Lowry 119 16.0 .199 2.5 294 16.3 .126 4.0
Fred VanVleet 133 24.9 .327 10.3 297 12.7 .049 2.2
Pascal Siakam 134 16.5 .140 -0.9 284 8.4 -.007 -2.5
OG Anunoby 130 10.7 .139 -0.9 263 12.0 .103 1.6
Norman Powell 96 23.1 .261 5.1 177 10.0 .068 -0.5
Serge Ibaka 94 32.9 .393 9.4 157 20.9 .164 6.7
Marc Gasol 80 7.8 .072 -3.9 148 7.8 .027 -0.8
Matt Thomas 43 17.4 .252 3.7 41 13.9 .135 2.1
Terence Davis 53 21.7 .267 4.7 31 1.1 -.077 -11.3
Chris Boucher 18 -0.8 -.003 -10.8 25 8.0 .023 -4.6
Ro. H-Jefferson 30 14.4 .184 -3.3 9 27.0 .262 8.0
Stanley Johnson 16 23.9 .315 4.0 4 19.9 -.005 0.0
Celtics 1: Min PER WS/48 BPM 2: Min PER WS/48 BPM
Jayson Tatum 145 28.2 .283 11.0 293 18.2 .147 5.0
Kemba Walker 131 27.1 .281 9.2 282 14.2 .146 2.0
Jaylen Brown 150 17.3 .156 3.0 276 14.7 .097 1.9
Marcus Smart 143 8.1 .075 -3.0 275 12.7 .116 2.6
Daniel Theis 90 10.8 .083 -1.5 214 15.1 .185 2.3
Brad Wanamaker 69 11.9 .123 1.6 118 8.4 .090 -0.9
Robert Williams 22 -0.3 -.045 -13.0 100 23.7 .299 6.9
Grant Williams 39 23.7 .376 11.1 81 9.0 .155 1.0
Semi Ojeleye 29 -3.8 -.052 -9.6 70 4.4 .043 -1.4
Enes Kanter 61 13.8 .131 -3.4 7 8.9 .082 -12.1
Romeo Langford 37 3.5 .025 -4.1 7 -4.7 -.164 -11.0
Heat 1: Min PER WS/48 BPM 2: Min PER WS/48 BPM
Jimmy Butler 135 20.5 .178 2.6 183 25.5 .265 6.8
Bam Adebayo 137 18.4 .160 2.0 181 22.6 .253 5.5
Goran Dragić 137 18.9 .143 1.9 175 17.1 .131 1.4
Jae Crowder 102 14.6 .176 1.6 168 15.1 .152 4.7
Tyler Herro 129 15.9 .175 0.9 162 10.9 .055 0.2
Dunc. Robinson 101 14.0 .163 0.7 136 8.1 .055 -1.4
Andre Iguodala 107 11.8 .170 2.6 81 8.3 .056 -0.2
Kendrick Nunn 14 19.3 .245 6.0 67 1.4 -.123 -7.9
Kelly Olynyk 55 17.3 .146 2.7 50 26.3 .270 10.9
Derrick Jones 43 13.5 .180 3.8 13 41.5 .477 27.5
Meyers Leonard 9 -4.2 -.108 -6.3
Bucks 1: Min PER WS/48 BPM 2: Min PER WS/48 BPM
Khr. Middleton 159 9.0 .016 -4.0 196 17.2 .067 3.2
Brook Lopez 151 14.1 .140 1.3 177 19.8 .157 4.8
George Hill 111 15.5 .212 1.6 157 8.5 .005 -3.9
Eric Bledsoe 131 16.4 .147 3.1 136 8.9 -.041 -3.4
Wes Matthews 117 9.9 .135 1.5 129 8.6 .034 -1.0
Antetokounmpo 159 32.9 .302 12.4 118 29.4 .159 9.6
Mar. Williams 76 13.5 .175 3.7 103 13.8 .111 2.3
Do. DiVincenzo 67 10.5 .055 -2.6 98 13.9 .111 1.6
P Connaughton 106 12.0 .174 3.2 65 3.8 -.073 -6.0
Kyle Korver 75 10.5 .100 -1.6 44 15.1 .051 2.7