2020 Playoffs, West round 2: Den-LAC & Hou-LAL

[Mike G]

Lakers 3 , Rockets 1
avg score 109.0 - 105.8
pyth wins 2.40 - 1.60 , eWins 2.20 - 1.80
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... _2020.html

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eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.88   Anthony Davis   LAL   38  .663   30.2  13.7   3.1   1.0   3.8  1.5   2.78
.79   LeBron James    LAL   37  .581   25.9  11.3   5.9   1.8   4.8  2.0   2.59
.74   James Harden    Hou   38  .636   30.2   5.0   6.8   1.5   4.5  1.0   2.38
.51 Russell Westbrook Hou   35  .500   21.3  10.2   4.4   2.1   5.0   .5   1.72
.35   Rajon Rondo     LAL   28  .641   16.2   5.9   7.0   3.0   3.7   .3   1.49

.24   Eric Gordon     Hou   36  .613   18.5   2.2   2.5    .3   1.1   .3    .83
.16  Robert Covington Hou   34  .766    9.9   5.7   1.2   3.0   1.2   .5    .57
.08   Alex Caruso     LAL   24  .685   13.6   3.0   2.7   1.0   2.7  1.0    .41
.07   Danny Green     LAL   27  .484    8.2   5.3   1.9    .7    .0   .3    .31
.07   Kyle Kuzma      LAL   24  .591   12.2   4.1   1.1    .7   1.1   .7    .34

eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.05   P.J. Tucker     Hou   35  .563    5.4   8.4    .9    .8    .6   .5    .17
.04   Jeff Green      Hou   27  .582    9.1   4.7   1.9   1.2   1.6   .3    .17
.04   Austin Rivers   Hou   15  .649   12.2   4.7   2.6    .5   2.7   .0    .28
.03   Danuel House    Hou   12  .500    6.9   7.4    .6   1.4    .0   .0    .29
.02  Markieff Morris  LAL   20  .540    9.3   6.0    .7    .4    .9   .0    .14

-.00  Ben McLemore    Hou    8  .643    7.7    .0   3.1   1.7    .9   .0   -.03
-.01  JaVale McGee    LAL    7  .667    5.2   6.9   1.0    .0   2.8  2.5   -.11
-.06  K Caldwell-Pope LAL   28  .481    6.5   3.6    .8    .6    .7   .0   -.24

shooting: Hou .593 - .589 LA
rebounds: LA 44.3 - 33.0 Hou
turnovers: Hou 15.0 - 16.5 LA

[rlee]

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-9-11-20/

[Crow]

Small ball, rebounding... rebounding mattering a lot this time. Have to be winning somewhere else by more to offset. Advantage on ft/fga does not appear enough so far.

[Mike G]

Clippers 3 , Nuggets 2
avg score 107 - 102
pyth wins 3.27 - 1.73 , eWins 2.88 - 2.12

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eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.30  Kawhi Leonard   LAC   38  .575   27.3   9.6   5.0   2.3   2.9  1.2   3.27
.97   Nikola Jokić    Den   37  .587   25.6  11.7   4.2    .4   4.8  1.2   2.51
.75   Paul George     LAC   37  .616   24.0   6.0   3.5   1.6   3.5   .8   1.95
.54   Jamal Murray    Den   39  .485   16.6   4.2   5.4   1.1   2.4   .2   1.33
.30   Paul Millsap    Den   25  .600   15.6   7.5   1.2   1.4   1.8   .9   1.12

.25   Michael Porter  Den   24  .554   12.4   9.3    .7   1.6   1.1   .5   1.02
.23  Montrezl Harrell LAC   18  .548   18.6   5.0    .6   1.7   1.1   .7   1.17
.21   Marcus Morris   LAC   32  .703   14.1   5.0   1.6    .5   1.0   .0    .64
.19   Ivica Zubac     LAC   25  .573   12.3  11.3    .7    .3   2.8   .9    .71
.19   Lou Williams    LAC   26  .395   10.7   4.1   4.8   1.0   1.9   .5    .69

eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.14   Monte Morris    Den   17  .552   15.7   2.1   2.3   1.4   1.1   .0    .75
.12  Patrick Beverley LAC   20  .604   10.1   8.1   2.5   1.1   1.6   .7    .60
.07   Gary Harris     Den   28  .682   12.1   1.9   2.8   2.1   1.7   .3    .25
.07   JaMychal Green  LAC   19  .737    8.8   9.1   1.1    .0   1.1   .3    .36
.05   Mason Plumlee   Den   11  .583    7.5   7.4   3.4   1.0   1.1  1.6    .49

-.07  Reggie Jackson  LAC    6  .500    2.1   1.0    .8    .9   1.0   .0  -1.20
-.10  Landry Shamet   LAC   16  .381    4.7   4.0   2.3    .0   2.0   .4   -.59
-.11  Jerami Grant    Den   36  .450    5.7   3.3    .8    .6    .4  1.2   -.30
-.12  Torrey Craig    Den   18  .389    3.4   5.2   1.1    .7   1.1   .0   -.66

shooting: LAC .565 - .543 Den
rebounds: LAC 44.0 - 40.6 Den
turnovers: Den 13.4 - 14.2 LAC

[Mike G]

Small ball, rebounding... rebounding mattering a lot this time. Have to be winning somewhere else by more to offset. Advantage on ft/fga does not appear enough so far.

Yeah, the Rockets are outscoring the Lakers by 5.8 per game from the FT line; also by 15, shooting .400, from the arc!
Lakers winning by 24 pts/G inside the arc.

Sometimes a big total-rebound advantage is just due to much better FG%. Teams' OReb% and DReb% can be the same, and the worse shooting% gets killed on the boards. In this case, the Rockets cannot keep the Lakers off the offensive boards: .275 ORb% vs one-and-done .126 for Hou.

If either LeBron or Davis should have a bad game -- or if the other Lakers go back to sucking -- or if Harden should not be dismal -- it's anybody's game to win.

And it was close to a no-brainer to ditch their centers; Javale and Dwight have been phased out daily. Their combined minutes, on court plus-minus, and game results:

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G   CMin  C+/-  mov
1    24    -3   -15
2     8    -8     8
3     7    +1    10
4     0     0    10

LeBron has always thrived with the open lane and has no trouble getting rebounds vs Covington/ J Green et al.
Heck, in game 4 he out-rebounded the entire Hou starting 5; LA doubled Houston, 52-26.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/bo ... 00HOU.html

[rlee]

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-9-12-20/

[Mike G]

Lakers 4 , Rockets 1
avg score 111.0 - 103.8
Pyth wins 3.55 - 1.45 , eWins 3.02 - 1.98

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eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.13  LeBron James    LAL   36  .592   28.6  12.0   6.3   2.1   4.8  1.9   3.04
1.00  Anthony Davis   LAL   37  .648   27.9  13.7   3.3    .8   4.4  1.4   2.58
.90   James Harden    Hou   39  .645   29.3   5.0   6.0   1.3   4.7  1.0   2.23
.52 Russell Westbrook Hou   35  .471   18.0   8.8   4.5   2.1   4.6   .4   1.41
.39   Rajon Rondo     LAL   27  .616   14.4   6.4   7.2   2.5   3.6   .5   1.39

.20   Eric Gordon     Hou   34  .587   15.7   2.2   2.2    .2   1.1   .2    .55
.16   Kyle Kuzma      LAL   25  .636   14.8   4.4   1.3    .5   1.2   .8    .64
.15  Robert Covington Hou   32  .672    8.9   5.3   1.2   3.0   1.0   .5    .47
.14   Danny Green     LAL   26  .570   10.9   5.5   1.8    .6    .3   .3    .51
.12   Markieff Morris LAL   20  .672   14.3   5.9   1.4    .3   1.5   .0    .57

eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.10   Alex Caruso     LAL   24  .636   12.0   3.0   2.7   1.1   2.4  1.4    .39
.07   Jeff Green      Hou   26  .570   10.1   4.3   1.5   1.0   1.3   .8    .26
.05   Austin Rivers   Hou   17  .579   11.2   4.6   2.5    .7   1.9   .0    .28
.05   P.J. Tucker     Hou   34  .515    5.8   8.0   1.1    .7    .7   .4    .14
.03   Danuel House    Hou    9  .500    6.8   7.1    .6   1.4    .0   .0    .28

.01   JaVale McGee    LAL    6  .500    3.8   9.5    .9    .0   2.4  3.2    .14
-.01  Ben McLemore    Hou   10  .563    8.7   1.3   1.9   1.1   1.2   .0   -.10
-.04  K Caldwell-Pope LAL   28  .563    8.0   3.2    .9    .8    .9   .0   -.13

shooting: LA .605 - .567 Hou
rebounds: LA 45.4 - 32.6 Hou
turnovers: Hou 14.4 - 17.2 LA

[rlee]

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-9-13-20/

[Mike G]

Clippers 3 , Nuggets 3
avg score 105.5 - 103.5
pyth wins 3.38 - 2.62 , eWins 3.19 - 2.81

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.49  Kawhi Leonard  LAC   39  .576   25.7   9.3   4.8   2.2   2.8  1.1   3.08
1.33  Nikola Jokić   Den   38  .608   27.3  12.3   4.5    .5   4.9  1.2   2.84
1.00  Paul George    LAC   37  .617   25.1   6.1   3.3   2.2   3.5   .8   2.14
.72   Jamal Murray   Den   40  .515   17.2   4.4   5.2   1.3   2.1   .2   1.45
.33   Paul Millsap   Den   25  .578   14.7   7.8   1.4   1.5   1.8   .7   1.05

.32  Michael Porter  Den   24  .580   13.5   9.3    .5   1.3   1.4   .7   1.04
.24   Lou Williams   LAC   26  .423   11.2   3.8   4.2   1.5   1.6   .4    .74
.20   Monte Morris   Den   17  .569   16.4   2.1   2.9   1.2    .9   .0    .93
.19 Montrezl Harrell LAC   18  .544   16.9   4.6    .7   1.4   1.6   .6    .84
.18   Ivica Zubac    LAC   26  .517    9.5  12.2    .8    .2   2.6  1.2    .56

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.16   Marcus Morris  LAC   32  .670   12.8   4.8   1.5    .4   1.1   .0    .41
.12   Gary Harris    Den   30  .649   12.9   1.9   2.9   2.4   2.1   .2    .32
.11  JaMychal Green  LAC   19  .722   10.4   8.1   1.4    .0    .9   .3    .45
.09 Patrick Beverley LAC   19  .596    9.4   7.6   3.2    .9   2.0   .6    .35
.02   Mason Plumlee  Den   11  .538    6.0   7.2   3.3    .9   1.4  1.3    .15

-.08  Reggie Jackson LAC    5  .500    2.0    .9    .7    .9   1.0   .0  -1.27
-.11  Torrey Craig   Den   19  .477    4.5   5.7   1.1    .5    .9   .0   -.48
-.12  Jerami Grant   Den   33  .445    6.2   3.1   1.1    .6    .4  1.3   -.30
-.18  Landry Shamet  LAC   17  .340    3.7   3.2   2.3    .0   2.3   .3   -.89

shooting: LAC .560 - .557 Den
rebounds: LAC 42.8 - 40.7 Den
turnovers: Den 13.7 - 14.5 LAC

[rlee]

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-9-15-20/

[Mike G]

Nuggets 4 , Clippers 3
avg score 103.6 - 103.1
Pyth wins 3.60 - 3.40 , eWins 3.55 - 3.45

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eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.52  Nikola Jokić    Den   38  .596   26.1  13.5   5.5    .7   4.8  1.4   2.77
1.39  Kawhi Leonard   LAC   39  .540   22.9   8.5   4.7   2.1   2.6  1.1   2.42
.95   Jamal Murray    Den   40  .554   21.0   4.2   5.0   1.2   2.5   .1   1.61
.86   Paul George     LAC   37  .578   22.4   5.7   3.0   2.0   3.7   .8   1.57
.34   Michael Porter  Den   23  .568   13.6   9.9    .5   1.2   1.5   .6   1.02

.32   Paul Millsap    Den   26  .570   14.0   7.1   1.4   1.2   1.7   .8    .86
.29  Montrezl Harrell LAC   19  .573   19.8   4.5    .6   1.2   1.6   .5   1.04
.28   Lou Williams    LAC   25  .409   11.2   4.1   4.6   1.3   1.6   .4    .75
.26  Patrick Beverley LAC   21  .618   11.0   7.4   3.8   1.5   1.6   .7    .85
.24   Gary Harris     Den   31  .647   13.6   2.6   2.6   2.2   1.9   .3    .54

eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.22   Monte Morris    Den   17  .583   17.2   1.9   2.9   1.1   1.1   .0    .90
.21   Ivica Zubac     LAC   24  .526   10.3  11.5    .7    .2   2.3  1.1    .59
.19   Marcus Morris   LAC   31  .618   12.5   5.3   1.3    .5   1.1   .0    .43
.19   JaMychal Green  LAC   20  .714   11.8   8.3   1.2    .2    .8   .2    .66
.01   Mason Plumlee   Den   10  .536    6.4   6.8   3.2    .8   2.2  1.2    .08

-.02  Jerami Grant    Den   33  .477    8.3   3.5   1.1    .5    .8  1.1   -.05
-.05  Torrey Craig    Den   19  .482    5.6   6.5   1.0    .5   1.0   .0   -.20
-.08  Reggie Jackson  LAC    5  .300    1.6    .9    .7    .8    .9   .0  -1.13
-.15  Landry Shamet   LAC   15  .385    4.7   3.0   2.2    .0   2.2   .3   -.66

shooting: Den .565 - .544 LAC
rebounds: Den 42.4 - 42.0 LAC
turnovers: LAC 13.9 - 14.6 Den

[Mike G]

Here are game-by-game eWins by players in this last series. Den went 9 deep and Clipps went 10, and all 19 played in every game.
The winners and the losers:

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. Nuggets    Gm:  1     2     3     4     5     6     7    eWin
Nikola Jokić     .03   .27   .25   .23   .19   .36   .19   1.52
Jamal Murray     .03   .17   .05   .09   .20   .18   .23    .95
Michael Porter  -.01   .06   .12   .07   .01   .07   .02    .34
Paul Millsap     .11   .05   .01   .04   .09   .03  -.01    .32
Gary Harris     -.03   .01   .06   .05  -.02   .05   .12    .24

Monte Morris     .03   .02   .04  -.01   .06   .06   .02    .22
Mason Plumlee    .06  -.02  -.01  -.01   .03  -.03  -.01    .01
Jerami Grant     .03   .02  -.08  -.08   .00  -.01   .10   -.02
Torrey Craig    -.01  -.05  -.03  -.04   .01   .01   .06   -.05

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. Clippers   Gm:  1     2     3     4     5     6     7    eWin
Kawhi Leonard    .23   .13   .20   .44   .30   .19  -.10   1.39
Paul George      .11   .16   .25   .02   .21   .25  -.14    .86
Montrezl Harrell .09   .06   .03   .08  -.03  -.04   .10    .29
Lou Williams     .04   .07   .05   .05  -.02   .05   .04    .28
Patrick Beverley .08  -.03   .05   .02   .00  -.03   .17    .26

Ivica Zubac      .02   .14  -.03   .08  -.02  -.01   .03    .21
JaMychal Green   .03   .05   .04  -.05   .00   .04   .08    .19
Marcus Morris    .16  -.02   .04   .02   .01  -.05   .03    .19
Reggie Jackson  -.04  -.01  -.02   .00   .00  -.01   .00   -.08
Landry Shamet   -.03  -.06   .00   .01  -.02  -.08   .03   -.15

An average player(relative to the competition) has to go the whole game to get .10 eWins, so anything above that is pretty good.
Before last night, Kawhi had had no bad games, and Paul George had one -- game 4, in which Kawhi had more than all of the Nuggets.

Both teams featured a Big 2; summarizing their combined eWins and their 'rest of team' support:

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Den    1     2     3     4     5     6     7     T
Big2  .06   .44   .30   .32   .39   .54   .42   2.47
ROT   .18   .09   .11   .02   .18   .18   .30   1.06
LAC
Big2  .34   .29   .45   .46   .51   .44  -.24   2.25
ROT   .35   .20   .16   .21  -.08  -.13   .48   1.19

After fading from games 1 thru 6, Clippers ROT finally woke up in game 7. If KL and PG could only have replicated their previous worst games, they'd have won handily.

[rlee]

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-9-16-20/