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Re: 2020 Playoffs, West round 2: Den-LAC & Hou-LAL
Posted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:43 pm
by Mike G
Lakers 3 , Rockets 1
avg score 109.0 - 105.8
pyth wins 2.40 - 1.60 , eWins 2.20 - 1.80
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... _2020.html
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.88 Anthony Davis LAL 38 .663 30.2 13.7 3.1 1.0 3.8 1.5 2.78
.79 LeBron James LAL 37 .581 25.9 11.3 5.9 1.8 4.8 2.0 2.59
.74 James Harden Hou 38 .636 30.2 5.0 6.8 1.5 4.5 1.0 2.38
.51 Russell Westbrook Hou 35 .500 21.3 10.2 4.4 2.1 5.0 .5 1.72
.35 Rajon Rondo LAL 28 .641 16.2 5.9 7.0 3.0 3.7 .3 1.49
.24 Eric Gordon Hou 36 .613 18.5 2.2 2.5 .3 1.1 .3 .83
.16 Robert Covington Hou 34 .766 9.9 5.7 1.2 3.0 1.2 .5 .57
.08 Alex Caruso LAL 24 .685 13.6 3.0 2.7 1.0 2.7 1.0 .41
.07 Danny Green LAL 27 .484 8.2 5.3 1.9 .7 .0 .3 .31
.07 Kyle Kuzma LAL 24 .591 12.2 4.1 1.1 .7 1.1 .7 .34
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.05 P.J. Tucker Hou 35 .563 5.4 8.4 .9 .8 .6 .5 .17
.04 Jeff Green Hou 27 .582 9.1 4.7 1.9 1.2 1.6 .3 .17
.04 Austin Rivers Hou 15 .649 12.2 4.7 2.6 .5 2.7 .0 .28
.03 Danuel House Hou 12 .500 6.9 7.4 .6 1.4 .0 .0 .29
.02 Markieff Morris LAL 20 .540 9.3 6.0 .7 .4 .9 .0 .14
-.00 Ben McLemore Hou 8 .643 7.7 .0 3.1 1.7 .9 .0 -.03
-.01 JaVale McGee LAL 7 .667 5.2 6.9 1.0 .0 2.8 2.5 -.11
-.06 K Caldwell-Pope LAL 28 .481 6.5 3.6 .8 .6 .7 .0 -.24
shooting: Hou .593 - .589 LA
rebounds: LA 44.3 - 33.0 Hou
turnovers: Hou 15.0 - 16.5 LA
Re: 2020 Playoffs, West round 2: Den-LAC & Hou-LAL
Posted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:05 pm
by rlee
Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis:
http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-9-11-20/
Re: 2020 Playoffs, West round 2: Den-LAC & Hou-LAL
Posted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:36 pm
by Crow
Small ball, rebounding... rebounding mattering a lot this time. Have to be winning somewhere else by more to offset. Advantage on ft/fga does not appear enough so far.
Re: 2020 Playoffs, West round 2: Den-LAC & Hou-LAL
Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:37 pm
by Mike G
Clippers 3 ,
Nuggets 2
avg score 107 - 102
pyth wins 3.27 - 1.73 , eWins 2.88 - 2.12
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.30 Kawhi Leonard LAC 38 .575 27.3 9.6 5.0 2.3 2.9 1.2 3.27
.97 Nikola Jokić Den 37 .587 25.6 11.7 4.2 .4 4.8 1.2 2.51
.75 Paul George LAC 37 .616 24.0 6.0 3.5 1.6 3.5 .8 1.95
.54 Jamal Murray Den 39 .485 16.6 4.2 5.4 1.1 2.4 .2 1.33
.30 Paul Millsap Den 25 .600 15.6 7.5 1.2 1.4 1.8 .9 1.12
.25 Michael Porter Den 24 .554 12.4 9.3 .7 1.6 1.1 .5 1.02
.23 Montrezl Harrell LAC 18 .548 18.6 5.0 .6 1.7 1.1 .7 1.17
.21 Marcus Morris LAC 32 .703 14.1 5.0 1.6 .5 1.0 .0 .64
.19 Ivica Zubac LAC 25 .573 12.3 11.3 .7 .3 2.8 .9 .71
.19 Lou Williams LAC 26 .395 10.7 4.1 4.8 1.0 1.9 .5 .69
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.14 Monte Morris Den 17 .552 15.7 2.1 2.3 1.4 1.1 .0 .75
.12 Patrick Beverley LAC 20 .604 10.1 8.1 2.5 1.1 1.6 .7 .60
.07 Gary Harris Den 28 .682 12.1 1.9 2.8 2.1 1.7 .3 .25
.07 JaMychal Green LAC 19 .737 8.8 9.1 1.1 .0 1.1 .3 .36
.05 Mason Plumlee Den 11 .583 7.5 7.4 3.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 .49
-.07 Reggie Jackson LAC 6 .500 2.1 1.0 .8 .9 1.0 .0 -1.20
-.10 Landry Shamet LAC 16 .381 4.7 4.0 2.3 .0 2.0 .4 -.59
-.11 Jerami Grant Den 36 .450 5.7 3.3 .8 .6 .4 1.2 -.30
-.12 Torrey Craig Den 18 .389 3.4 5.2 1.1 .7 1.1 .0 -.66
shooting: LAC .565 - .543 Den
rebounds: LAC 44.0 - 40.6 Den
turnovers: Den 13.4 - 14.2 LAC
Re: 2020 Playoffs, West round 2: Den-LAC & Hou-LAL
Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:16 pm
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:36 pm
Small ball, rebounding... rebounding mattering a lot this time. Have to be winning somewhere else by more to offset. Advantage on ft/fga does not appear enough so far.
Yeah, the Rockets are outscoring the Lakers by 5.8 per game from the FT line; also by 15, shooting .400, from the arc!
Lakers winning by 24 pts/G inside the arc.
Sometimes a big total-rebound advantage is just due to much better FG%. Teams' OReb% and DReb% can be the same, and the worse shooting% gets killed on the boards. In this case, the Rockets cannot keep the Lakers off the offensive boards: .275 ORb% vs one-and-done .126 for Hou.
If either LeBron or Davis should have a bad game -- or if the other Lakers go back to sucking -- or if Harden should not be dismal -- it's anybody's game to win.
And it was close to a no-brainer to ditch their centers; Javale and Dwight have been phased out daily. Their combined minutes, on court plus-minus, and game results:
Code: Select all
G CMin C+/- mov
1 24 -3 -15
2 8 -8 8
3 7 +1 10
4 0 0 10
LeBron has always thrived with the open lane and has no trouble getting rebounds vs Covington/ J Green et al.
Heck, in game 4 he out-rebounded the entire Hou starting 5; LA doubled Houston, 52-26.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/bo ... 00HOU.html
Re: 2020 Playoffs, West round 2: Den-LAC & Hou-LAL
Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:14 pm
by rlee
Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis:
http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-9-12-20/
Re: 2020 Playoffs, West round 2: Den-LAC & Hou-LAL
Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:48 am
by Mike G
Lakers 4 , Rockets 1
avg score 111.0 - 103.8
Pyth wins 3.55 - 1.45 , eWins 3.02 - 1.98
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.13 LeBron James LAL 36 .592 28.6 12.0 6.3 2.1 4.8 1.9 3.04
1.00 Anthony Davis LAL 37 .648 27.9 13.7 3.3 .8 4.4 1.4 2.58
.90 James Harden Hou 39 .645 29.3 5.0 6.0 1.3 4.7 1.0 2.23
.52 Russell Westbrook Hou 35 .471 18.0 8.8 4.5 2.1 4.6 .4 1.41
.39 Rajon Rondo LAL 27 .616 14.4 6.4 7.2 2.5 3.6 .5 1.39
.20 Eric Gordon Hou 34 .587 15.7 2.2 2.2 .2 1.1 .2 .55
.16 Kyle Kuzma LAL 25 .636 14.8 4.4 1.3 .5 1.2 .8 .64
.15 Robert Covington Hou 32 .672 8.9 5.3 1.2 3.0 1.0 .5 .47
.14 Danny Green LAL 26 .570 10.9 5.5 1.8 .6 .3 .3 .51
.12 Markieff Morris LAL 20 .672 14.3 5.9 1.4 .3 1.5 .0 .57
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.10 Alex Caruso LAL 24 .636 12.0 3.0 2.7 1.1 2.4 1.4 .39
.07 Jeff Green Hou 26 .570 10.1 4.3 1.5 1.0 1.3 .8 .26
.05 Austin Rivers Hou 17 .579 11.2 4.6 2.5 .7 1.9 .0 .28
.05 P.J. Tucker Hou 34 .515 5.8 8.0 1.1 .7 .7 .4 .14
.03 Danuel House Hou 9 .500 6.8 7.1 .6 1.4 .0 .0 .28
.01 JaVale McGee LAL 6 .500 3.8 9.5 .9 .0 2.4 3.2 .14
-.01 Ben McLemore Hou 10 .563 8.7 1.3 1.9 1.1 1.2 .0 -.10
-.04 K Caldwell-Pope LAL 28 .563 8.0 3.2 .9 .8 .9 .0 -.13
shooting: LA .605 - .567 Hou
rebounds: LA 45.4 - 32.6 Hou
turnovers: Hou 14.4 - 17.2 LA
Re: 2020 Playoffs, West round 2: Den-LAC & Hou-LAL
Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 5:01 pm
by rlee
Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis:
http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-9-13-20/
Re: 2020 Playoffs, West round 2: Den-LAC & Hou-LAL
Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:04 pm
by Mike G
Clippers 3 ,
Nuggets 3
avg score 105.5 - 103.5
pyth wins 3.38 - 2.62 , eWins 3.19 - 2.81
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.49 Kawhi Leonard LAC 39 .576 25.7 9.3 4.8 2.2 2.8 1.1 3.08
1.33 Nikola Jokić Den 38 .608 27.3 12.3 4.5 .5 4.9 1.2 2.84
1.00 Paul George LAC 37 .617 25.1 6.1 3.3 2.2 3.5 .8 2.14
.72 Jamal Murray Den 40 .515 17.2 4.4 5.2 1.3 2.1 .2 1.45
.33 Paul Millsap Den 25 .578 14.7 7.8 1.4 1.5 1.8 .7 1.05
.32 Michael Porter Den 24 .580 13.5 9.3 .5 1.3 1.4 .7 1.04
.24 Lou Williams LAC 26 .423 11.2 3.8 4.2 1.5 1.6 .4 .74
.20 Monte Morris Den 17 .569 16.4 2.1 2.9 1.2 .9 .0 .93
.19 Montrezl Harrell LAC 18 .544 16.9 4.6 .7 1.4 1.6 .6 .84
.18 Ivica Zubac LAC 26 .517 9.5 12.2 .8 .2 2.6 1.2 .56
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.16 Marcus Morris LAC 32 .670 12.8 4.8 1.5 .4 1.1 .0 .41
.12 Gary Harris Den 30 .649 12.9 1.9 2.9 2.4 2.1 .2 .32
.11 JaMychal Green LAC 19 .722 10.4 8.1 1.4 .0 .9 .3 .45
.09 Patrick Beverley LAC 19 .596 9.4 7.6 3.2 .9 2.0 .6 .35
.02 Mason Plumlee Den 11 .538 6.0 7.2 3.3 .9 1.4 1.3 .15
-.08 Reggie Jackson LAC 5 .500 2.0 .9 .7 .9 1.0 .0 -1.27
-.11 Torrey Craig Den 19 .477 4.5 5.7 1.1 .5 .9 .0 -.48
-.12 Jerami Grant Den 33 .445 6.2 3.1 1.1 .6 .4 1.3 -.30
-.18 Landry Shamet LAC 17 .340 3.7 3.2 2.3 .0 2.3 .3 -.89
shooting: LAC .560 - .557 Den
rebounds: LAC 42.8 - 40.7 Den
turnovers: Den 13.7 - 14.5 LAC
Re: 2020 Playoffs, West round 2: Den-LAC & Hou-LAL
Posted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:37 pm
by rlee
Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis:
http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-9-15-20/
Re: 2020 Playoffs, West round 2: Den-LAC & Hou-LAL
Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:10 pm
by Mike G
Nuggets 4 , Clippers 3
avg score 103.6 - 103.1
Pyth wins 3.60 - 3.40 , eWins 3.55 - 3.45
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.52 Nikola Jokić Den 38 .596 26.1 13.5 5.5 .7 4.8 1.4 2.77
1.39 Kawhi Leonard LAC 39 .540 22.9 8.5 4.7 2.1 2.6 1.1 2.42
.95 Jamal Murray Den 40 .554 21.0 4.2 5.0 1.2 2.5 .1 1.61
.86 Paul George LAC 37 .578 22.4 5.7 3.0 2.0 3.7 .8 1.57
.34 Michael Porter Den 23 .568 13.6 9.9 .5 1.2 1.5 .6 1.02
.32 Paul Millsap Den 26 .570 14.0 7.1 1.4 1.2 1.7 .8 .86
.29 Montrezl Harrell LAC 19 .573 19.8 4.5 .6 1.2 1.6 .5 1.04
.28 Lou Williams LAC 25 .409 11.2 4.1 4.6 1.3 1.6 .4 .75
.26 Patrick Beverley LAC 21 .618 11.0 7.4 3.8 1.5 1.6 .7 .85
.24 Gary Harris Den 31 .647 13.6 2.6 2.6 2.2 1.9 .3 .54
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.22 Monte Morris Den 17 .583 17.2 1.9 2.9 1.1 1.1 .0 .90
.21 Ivica Zubac LAC 24 .526 10.3 11.5 .7 .2 2.3 1.1 .59
.19 Marcus Morris LAC 31 .618 12.5 5.3 1.3 .5 1.1 .0 .43
.19 JaMychal Green LAC 20 .714 11.8 8.3 1.2 .2 .8 .2 .66
.01 Mason Plumlee Den 10 .536 6.4 6.8 3.2 .8 2.2 1.2 .08
-.02 Jerami Grant Den 33 .477 8.3 3.5 1.1 .5 .8 1.1 -.05
-.05 Torrey Craig Den 19 .482 5.6 6.5 1.0 .5 1.0 .0 -.20
-.08 Reggie Jackson LAC 5 .300 1.6 .9 .7 .8 .9 .0 -1.13
-.15 Landry Shamet LAC 15 .385 4.7 3.0 2.2 .0 2.2 .3 -.66
shooting: Den .565 - .544 LAC
rebounds: Den 42.4 - 42.0 LAC
turnovers: LAC 13.9 - 14.6 Den
Re: 2020 Playoffs, West round 2: Den-LAC & Hou-LAL
Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:55 pm
by Mike G
Here are game-by-game eWins by players in this last series. Den went 9 deep and Clipps went 10, and all 19 played in every game.
The winners and the losers:
Code: Select all
. Nuggets Gm: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 eWin
Nikola Jokić .03 .27 .25 .23 .19 .36 .19 1.52
Jamal Murray .03 .17 .05 .09 .20 .18 .23 .95
Michael Porter -.01 .06 .12 .07 .01 .07 .02 .34
Paul Millsap .11 .05 .01 .04 .09 .03 -.01 .32
Gary Harris -.03 .01 .06 .05 -.02 .05 .12 .24
Monte Morris .03 .02 .04 -.01 .06 .06 .02 .22
Mason Plumlee .06 -.02 -.01 -.01 .03 -.03 -.01 .01
Jerami Grant .03 .02 -.08 -.08 .00 -.01 .10 -.02
Torrey Craig -.01 -.05 -.03 -.04 .01 .01 .06 -.05
Code: Select all
. Clippers Gm: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 eWin
Kawhi Leonard .23 .13 .20 .44 .30 .19 -.10 1.39
Paul George .11 .16 .25 .02 .21 .25 -.14 .86
Montrezl Harrell .09 .06 .03 .08 -.03 -.04 .10 .29
Lou Williams .04 .07 .05 .05 -.02 .05 .04 .28
Patrick Beverley .08 -.03 .05 .02 .00 -.03 .17 .26
Ivica Zubac .02 .14 -.03 .08 -.02 -.01 .03 .21
JaMychal Green .03 .05 .04 -.05 .00 .04 .08 .19
Marcus Morris .16 -.02 .04 .02 .01 -.05 .03 .19
Reggie Jackson -.04 -.01 -.02 .00 .00 -.01 .00 -.08
Landry Shamet -.03 -.06 .00 .01 -.02 -.08 .03 -.15
An average player(relative to the competition) has to go the whole game to get .10 eWins, so anything above that is pretty good.
Before last night, Kawhi had had no bad games, and Paul George had one -- game 4, in which Kawhi had more than all of the Nuggets.
Both teams featured a Big 2; summarizing their combined eWins and their 'rest of team' support:
Code: Select all
Den 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 T
Big2 .06 .44 .30 .32 .39 .54 .42 2.47
ROT .18 .09 .11 .02 .18 .18 .30 1.06
LAC
Big2 .34 .29 .45 .46 .51 .44 -.24 2.25
ROT .35 .20 .16 .21 -.08 -.13 .48 1.19
After fading from games 1 thru 6, Clippers ROT finally woke up in game 7. If KL and PG could only have replicated their previous worst games, they'd have won handily.
Re: 2020 Playoffs, West round 2: Den-LAC & Hou-LAL
Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:04 pm
by rlee
Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis:
http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-9-16-20/