APBRmetrics

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 5:42 pm**

Warriors won't get it done without a lot more from some combo of Green, Thompson and Poole.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 11:48 pm**

Curry could lead the GSW to a victory more or less by himself if BOS’s starters have another up-down performance. The closest thing to a reliable player in the Finals for the Celtics has been Brown, and yet he still had a mediocre Gm. 2.

Posted: **Sat Jun 11, 2022 11:37 am**

Warriors 2 - 2 Celtics
avg score 105.5 - 105.25
Pyth wins 2.03 - 1.97 , eWins 2.02 - 1.98
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... otals.html

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.85   Stephen Curry   GS   37  .656   41.9   6.4   3.6   2.0   3.0   .0   2.74
.41   Jayson Tatum   Bos   40  .468   17.7   6.8   7.1    .9   3.4   .7   1.23
.40   Jaylen Brown   Bos   36  .539   22.2   7.3   3.7    .8   2.7   .5   1.34
.35   Al Horford     Bos   30  .723   19.6   8.9   4.2    .6   1.6   .9   1.43
.33  Robert Williams Bos   24  .893   15.7  11.5   1.8   1.8    .8  4.4   1.63

.28   Kevon Looney    GS   23  .737   15.2  13.3   4.3   1.5   3.1  1.9   1.46
.27   Marcus Smart   Bos   34  .554   17.4   5.1   5.1   1.9   3.4   .0    .97
.26  Andrew Wiggins   GS   38  .508   14.5   8.7   1.4   1.0   2.0  1.2    .82
.18   Otto Porter     GS   19  .958   18.7   4.1   2.5   2.6    .9   .0   1.15
.16   Klay Thompson   GS   37  .486   14.1   2.6   1.9   1.0    .8   .7    .51

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.11   Jordan Poole    GS   23  .556   18.6   3.0   3.1   1.1   4.0   .4    .58
.10   Derrick White  Bos   30  .549   16.0   2.1   2.2    .9   2.7   .9    .42
.09  Draymond Green   GS   35  .274    2.0   7.9   5.8   1.8   2.1   .5    .30
.07   Gary Payton     GS   12  .636   11.2   5.6   3.2   1.3    .7   .7    .68
.04  Grant Williams  Bos   18  .633    9.6   4.7   1.8    .5    .5   .5    .26

.03  Andre Iguodala   GS    4  .875   24.5    .0   5.7    .0   2.0   .0   1.08
.03  Nemanja Bjelica  GS    6  .563   10.5   8.2   1.1   2.3   2.3   .0    .50
.02 Payton Pritchard Bos   14  .500    8.1   6.4   2.8    .6   1.8   .0    .22
.01   Aaron Nesmith  Bos    4  .400    5.2   5.8   3.7   1.9    .0   .0    .43
.01   Daniel Theis   Bos    5  .750    6.0   7.6   1.4    .0   1.5  2.9    .19

shooting : GS .562 - .558 Bos
rebounds: Bos 42.8 - 41.8 GS
turnovers: GS 14.8 - 15.0 Bos

Code: Select all

wins   Finals        tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.81   Stephen Curry   GS  149   29.3   .245   12.2   2.74
.42  Robert Williams Bos   96   23.8   .275    8.2   1.63
.39   Al Horford     Bos  118   18.0   .188    6.3   1.43
.33   Kevon Looney    GS   92   21.9   .208    6.4   1.46
.31   Jaylen Brown   Bos  145   16.6   .081    1.3   1.34

.30   Jayson Tatum   Bos  159   14.2   .039    2.5   1.23
.27   Otto Porter     GS   74   18.7   .224    9.3   1.15
.23   Marcus Smart   Bos  134   14.0   .071    0.6    .97
.20  Andrew Wiggins   GS  150   12.9   .047   -0.7    .82
.16   Klay Thompson   GS  149   11.4   .045   -0.8    .51

wins   Finals        tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.12   Gary Payton     GS   46   15.9   .187    4.5    .68
.10   Derrick White  Bos  121   10.2   .033   -1.7    .41
.08  Grant Williams  Bos   70   10.5   .102   -0.8    .26
.05   Jordan Poole    GS   92   10.6  -.017   -3.4    .58
.04  Andre Iguodala   GS   14   17.4   .232    3.0   1.08

.04 Payton Pritchard Bos   54   10.2   .035   -1.9    .22
.04  Draymond Green   GS  140    6.8   .017   -4.0    .30
.03  Nemanja Bjelica  GS   24   12.8   .059    0.2    .50
.03   Aaron Nesmith  Bos   14   13.5   .088    3.7    .43
.02   Malik Fitts    Bos    7   18.4   .193    9.3   1.24

wins   Finals        tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.02   Nik Stauskas   Bos    7   16.3   .166    5.8    .78
.02   Moses Moody     GS    9   14.2   .136    4.9   -.01
.02   Daniel Theis   Bos   20    8.7   .045    0.4    .19
.01   Sam Hauser     Bos    8    9.9   .093    1.7   -.09
.00 Jonathan Kuminga  GS    6    7.8   .060   -6.0   -.65

-.02 Juan T-Anderson  GS    7   -2.9  -.274   -7.7   -.31
-.04  Damion Lee      GS    7  -15.4  -.417  -24.8   -.94

wins   Finals        tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
2.02    totals        GS  960   15.3   .101   2.13   1.01
1.99    totals       Bos  960   14.9   .100   2.15    .99

Posted: **Sat Jun 11, 2022 1:28 pm**

Like I stated earlier, they really didn’t need Green, Thompson and Poole to provide much — Curry could single-handedly lead GSW to a win if the BOS starters don’t ALL step-up, and that’s exactly what happened. It is almost 5 against 1 and the Celtics can’t seem to press the advantage. Even if the series ends in 6 games and a Warriors defeat, Curry should still be the NBA FMVP.

Horford has one of the highest total net impact in the series for BOS, but has been so passive in the last 2 gm. as to be close to inconsequential. Williams III as a late dark horse FMVP? At the very least, Williams III was huge for BOS and deserves more minutes in Gm. 5.

Looney didn’t have that great a game, and I’m not sure whether it was an off night or if BOS has figured something out with him. Porter had his 1st bad game that I can remember since the DEN series.

In the end, it doesn’t change the fact that Tatum, Horford and Brown wasted an awesome Williams III performance and a solid one also from Smart.

Posted: **Sat Jun 11, 2022 9:08 pm**

Plenty of recent lineup management analysis of this series on Twitter here

@bballstrategy

Posted: **Sat Jun 11, 2022 9:26 pm**

Game by game "wins" attributed to regular rotation players:

Code: Select all

Celts      1     2     3     4      T
RWilliams .07   .04   .15   .16 -  .42
Horford   .19  -.01   .16   .05 -  .39
Brown     .05   .01   .21   .04 -  .31
Tatum     .00   .11   .14   .05 -  .30
Smart     .17  -.10   .07   .09 -  .23

White     .10   .00   .00   .00 -  .10
GWilliams-.01   .04   .05   .00 -  .08
Pritchard .08   .00   .01  -.05 -  .04

totals    .67   .25   .73   .34 - 1.99
               
               
Dubs       1     2     3     4      T
Curry     .18   .24   .10   .29 -  .81
Looney    .06   .20   .02   .05 -  .33
Porter    .09   .11   .06   .01 -  .27
Wiggins   .07   .02   .03   .08 -  .20
Thompson  .02  -.07   .14   .07 -  .16

Payton    .00   .07   .00   .05 -  .12
Poole    -.07   .08  -.01   .05 -  .05
Green    -.09   .12  -.07   .08 -  .04
Bjelica   .00   .07  -.01  -.03 -  .03

totals    .34   .79   .23   .66 - 2.02

An average performance for the full 48 minutes would result in .10 wins; so .10 in less than 48 is 'good' by any measure.

Note: Celts still favored by 54-46 at b-r.com
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html

Posted: **Sun Jun 12, 2022 2:39 am**

BOS-GSW series probabilities have changed to ~66-34% in the FiveThirtyEight RAPTOR-based Forecast and 71-29% for the ESPN NBA BPI.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/B ... ayoff-odds

The two models have Gm. 5 as a ~51-49% and 52-48% Celtics-Warriors split respectively.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... ons/games/
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401442534

Posted: **Sun Jun 12, 2022 6:13 pm**

Suppose the Celts are just about 1.5 ppg better than the Dubs. This translates to 55-45% on neutral court.
Further suppose that means Celts favored by 65-35 in Boston, Dubs by 55-45 in SF.

Chances the Celts win in 6 = .45*.65 = .29
Winning in 7, they can win G5 and G7, or 6 and 7: .45*.35*.45 + .55*.65*.45 = .07+.16 = .23
Total = .29+.23 = .52

Posted: **Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:40 am**

Warriors 3 - 2 Celtics
avg score 105.2 - 103.0
Pyth wins 2.85 - 2.15 , eWins 2.67 - 2.33

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.94   Stephen Curry   GS   37  .598   32.2   5.9   4.3   1.8   2.6   .0   2.42
.57   Jayson Tatum   Bos   41  .492   18.3   6.9   6.2    .7   3.4   .5   1.33
.48   Andrew Wiggins  GS   38  .514   15.9   9.6   1.4   1.1   1.6  1.1   1.20
.45   Jaylen Brown   Bos   38  .507   18.5   7.2   3.6    .8   3.0   .4   1.14
.42  Robert Williams Bos   25  .875   14.7  10.7   1.9   1.4    .6  3.3   1.60

.39   Al Horford     Bos   30  .709   16.4   8.8   3.5    .5   1.7   .7   1.25
.31   Marcus Smart   Bos   35  .562   17.0   4.4   4.3   1.5   3.5   .0    .86
.30   Kevon Looney    GS   22  .714   12.1  12.7   4.4   1.3   2.9  1.6   1.33
.29   Klay Thompson   GS   38  .523   15.9   2.7   1.8   1.2    .8   .6    .74
.19   Gary Payton     GS   15  .725   16.3   6.1   2.1   2.2    .5   .4   1.28

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.16   Jordan Poole    GS   21  .587   20.7   2.6   2.6    .9   3.8   .3    .73
.16   Otto Porter     GS   18  .833   13.4   4.3   2.1   2.2    .8   .4    .85
.15  Draymond Green   GS   35  .329    3.1   8.2   5.7   1.7   2.1   .4    .41
.07   Derrick White  Bos   29  .509   12.2   1.9   2.6   1.0   2.2   .7    .23
.03  Grant Williams  Bos   17  .629    8.8   4.8   1.8    .4   1.2  1.1    .18

.03  Andre Iguodala   GS    4  .875   16.8    .0   7.1    .0   1.6   .0    .84
.03   Aaron Nesmith  Bos    3  .438    9.2   6.9   3.3   1.7    .0   .0    .87
.02  Nemanja Bjelica  GS    6  .563    8.4   8.0    .9   1.9   1.9   .0    .35
.01   Daniel Theis   Bos    4  .750    5.7   7.4   1.4    .0   1.5  2.9    .13
-.01  Pa. Pritchard  Bos   12  .421    6.0   6.2   2.5    .5   2.1   .0   -.05

shooting : GS .558 - .551 Bos
rebounds: Bos 43.6 - 41.2 GS
turnovers: GS 13.2 - 15.6 Bos

Code: Select all

wins   Finals   tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480    perW   WS   bpmW  eWin
.84   Curry     GS   186   25.2   .193    9.3   2.42     .83   .75   .99   .94
.55  RWilliams Bos   126   23.1   .278    8.3   1.60     .50   .73   .62   .42
.44   Horford  Bos   151   16.1   .162    5.2   1.25     .35   .51   .55   .39
.41   Tatum    Bos   204   14.2   .044    3.0   1.33     .39   .19   .57   .57
.39   Wiggins   GS   192   15.3   .081    1.0   1.20     .42   .32   .38   .48

.36   Looney    GS   108   19.6   .204    5.3   1.33     .34   .46   .40   .30
.32   Brown    Bos   189   14.5   .050    0.2   1.14     .37   .20   .32   .45
.32  Thompson   GS   189   12.9   .081    1.2    .74     .30   .32   .39   .29
.28   Payton    GS    73   20.2   .243    7.9   1.28     .24   .37   .35   .19
.27   Porter    GS    89   16.1   .192    7.0    .85     .21   .36   .39   .16

wins   Finals   tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480    perW   WS   bpmW  eWin
.26   Smart    Bos   174   12.7   .058    0.2    .86     .27   .21   .29   .31
.12   Poole     GS   107   13.3   .027   -1.4    .73     .18   .06   .11   .16
.12   Green     GS   175    7.8   .046   -2.7    .41     .08   .17   .09   .15
.09  GWilliams Bos    86    9.6   .081   -0.8    .18     .07   .15   .11   .03
.09   White    Bos   143    8.7   .024   -1.8    .23     .09   .07   .13   .07

.06  Iguodala   GS    18   17.2   .244    5.6    .84     .05   .09   .07   .03
.05   Nesmith  Bos    15   20.2   .171    5.7    .87     .05   .05   .06   .03
.03   Bjelica   GS    29   10.6   .066   -1.1    .35     .03   .04   .03   .02
.02   Fitts    Bos     7   18.7   .195    9.3   1.07     .02   .03   .04   .02
.02   Theis    Bos    20    9.7   .045    0.4    .13     .02   .02   .04   .01

wins   Finals   tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480    perW   WS   bpmW  eWin
.02  Stauskas  Bos     8   14.3   .144    4.3    .58     .02   .02   .03   .01
.02   Hauser   Bos    10   11.2   .132    5.2   -.05     .01   .03   .04   .00
.02   Moody     GS    11   12.3   .142    3.4   -.31     .02   .03   .03  -.01
-.01  Kuminga   GS     8    1.4  -.038  -10.1   -.85    -.01  -.01  -.02  -.01
-.01 Pritchard Bos    59    6.4  -.037   -4.6   -.05     .01  -.05  -.01  -.01

-.02 T-Anderson GS     8   -6.2  -.220  -12.1   -.58    -.02  -.04  -.03  -.01
-.05  Lee       GS     8  -17.4  -.459  -27.0  -1.11    -.04  -.08  -.07  -.02

wins   Finals   tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480    perW   WS   bpmW  eWin
2.71   totals   GS  1200   15.4   .114   2.49   1.07    2.62  2.85  3.11  2.67
2.32   totals  Bos  1200   13.9   .089   1.94    .93    2.22  2.23  2.84  2.33

Posted: **Tue Jun 14, 2022 1:11 pm**

Curry finally had a mediocre game, but the Celtics were unable to capitalize. Even with the so-so Gm. 5 performance, he is clearly in the driver’s seat for the NBA FMVP.

Williams III seems to be the only BOS starter who has been ready for the moment since Gm. 1. At this point, in the event GSW still lose in 7 gm., I don’t see how you can justify considering any other Celtic for FMVP. Horford’s age appears to have finally caught up to him this playoffs.

Looney and Porter Jr. have been non-factors in the last 2 games, and BOS seem to have made it a point to somewhat neutralize the two. Unfortunately for the Celtics, Wiggins and Payton II decided to then have the playoff game of their lives.

Tatum had his bounce-back game. He simply needed Horford, Brown and Smart to come along with him and Williams III.

As a side note, Theis has fallen completely out of the rotation even though Grant Williams hasn’t provided much throughout the series (like in Gm. 4 and 5). Despite the shooting issues, I would have assumed Udoka would at least utilize Theis in place of Williams, even if only sparingly, for his rebounding and defense — areas where they have struggled against GSW. This would be my candidate for biggest lineup adjustment for Gm. 6, particularly for the third quarter.

Posted: **Tue Jun 14, 2022 1:40 pm**

Jeff Van Gundy keeps talking about how Tatum and Brown need to give up the ball "a step quicker" and says that's exactly what they do right, when they are winning. I tend to agree.
When they are getting trapped and losing the ball, they seem to trend toward not giving up the ball, rather than giving it up earlier. Then it's a tougher than necessary shot or pass, often a turnover or an air ball.

They could just decide to force more of the offense thru Robt. Williams and Al Horford, but I think even more TO come with that. You can only get so many 80% shots, and then they become 70 or 60% shooters.

Last year it was the Suns going do-or-die with Devin Booker. This year I keep waiting for Tatum and Brown to both get hot.
Actually, both are within 2 good/great games of seizing the fmvp.

Posted: **Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:16 pm**

Updated game by game 'wins'.

Code: Select all

Celts      1     2     3     4     5       T
RWilliams .07   .04   .15   .16   .13  -  .55
Horford   .19  -.01   .16   .05   .05  -  .44
Tatum     .00   .11   .14   .05   .11  -  .41
Brown     .05   .01   .21   .04   .01  -  .32
Smart     .17  -.10   .07   .09   .03  -  .26
                     
White     .10   .00   .00   .00  -.01  -  .09
GWilliams-.01   .04   .05   .00   .01  -  .09
Pritchard .08   .00   .01  -.05  -.05  - -.01
                     
totals    .67   .25   .73   .34   .32  - 2.30
                     
                     
Dubs       1     2     3     4     5       T
Curry     .18   .24   .10   .29   .03  -  .84
Wiggins   .07   .02   .03   .08   .19  -  .39
Looney    .06   .20   .02   .05   .03  -  .36
Porter    .09   .11   .06   .01   .00  -  .27
Thompson  .02  -.07   .14   .07   .16  -  .32
                     
Payton    .00   .07   .00   .05   .16  -  .28
Poole    -.07   .08  -.01   .05   .07  -  .12
Green    -.09   .12  -.07   .08   .08  -  .12
Bjelica   .00   .07  -.01  -.03   .00  -  .03
                     
totals    .34   .79   .23   .66   .68  - 2.70

'The Wiggins Game' was also the best showing by Thompson and Payton.

Posted: **Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:46 am**

Warriors 4 - 2 Celtics
avg score 104.8 - 100.8
Pyth wins 3.76 - 2.24 , eWins 3.38 - 2.62

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.20  Stephen Curry   GS   38  .619   33.0   6.0   4.6   1.9   2.5   .2   2.55
.59  Andrew Wiggins   GS   39  .512   15.9   8.5   1.9   1.4   1.8  1.4   1.19
.58   Jaylen Brown   Bos   39  .536   20.8   7.0   3.3    .8   3.2   .3   1.20
.57   Al Horford     Bos   32  .765   18.0  10.0   3.1    .8   2.0   .8   1.43
.56   Jayson Tatum   Bos   41  .474   16.5   6.2   6.0   1.0   3.5   .6   1.10

.49  Robert Williams Bos   27  .776   13.0  10.5   2.0   1.1    .9  3.9   1.47
.32   Marcus Smart   Bos   35  .535   14.8   4.7   4.9   1.5   3.4   .0    .73
.28   Kevon Looney    GS   22  .652    9.6  13.1   4.3   1.1   2.9  1.4   1.04
.27   Jordan Poole    GS   21  .585   23.8   3.3   3.0    .9   3.6   .3   1.04
.27   Klay Thompson   GS   38  .481   14.3   3.0   1.8   1.3   1.2   .5    .56

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.26   Gary Payton     GS   15  .648   15.4   6.5   2.6   3.1    .8   .8   1.34
.22  Draymond Green   GS   36  .385    4.7   8.4   5.9   1.7   2.6   .7    .48
.21   Otto Porter     GS   17  .861   15.6   4.4   2.0   2.1    .7   .4   1.00
.05   Derrick White  Bos   27  .476   11.4   2.1   2.8    .9   2.3   .7    .14
.04  Andre Iguodala   GS    3  .875   19.0    .0   8.9    .0   1.9   .0   1.07

.04  Nemanja Bjelica  GS    5  .563   11.2  10.2   1.2   2.4   2.6   .0    .69
.04  Grant Williams  Bos   17  .625    9.3   5.0   2.0    .3   1.4  1.4    .19
.02   Daniel Theis   Bos    3  .750    6.5   9.1   1.7    .0   1.8  3.5    .44
.00 Payton Pritchard Bos   11  .381    6.1   7.0   3.1    .5   2.8   .0   -.02

shooting : GS .555 - .547 Bos
rebounds: Bos 43.2 - 41.7 GS
turnovers: GS 13.8 - 16.8 Bos

Code: Select all

wins   Finals         tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1.15  Stephen Curry   GS   226   27.0   .246   11.3   2.55
.64   Al Horford     Bos   190   18.2   .184    7.0   1.43
.62  Robert Williams Bos   159   22.1   .248    7.1   1.47
.51  Andrew Wiggins   GS   236   15.8   .092    2.2   1.19
.46   Jaylen Brown   Bos   233   15.7   .062    1.4   1.20

.38   Jayson Tatum   Bos   244   12.5   .016    2.1   1.10
.35   Kevon Looney    GS   130   17.1   .188    2.6   1.04
.33   Gary Payton     GS    92   19.3   .231    6.8   1.34
.32   Otto Porter     GS   102   16.4   .206    7.2   1.00
.27   Marcus Smart   Bos   212   12.1   .047   -0.5    .73

wins   Finals         tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.23  Draymond Green   GS   217    9.6   .067   -1.1    .48
.22   Klay Thompson   GS   230   10.2   .045   -1.5    .56
.22   Jordan Poole    GS   125   14.6   .078    0.1   1.04
.09  Grant Williams  Bos   102    9.0   .066   -0.8    .19
.06  Andre Iguodala   GS    19   16.4   .238    4.9   1.07

.05   Luke Kornet    Bos     6   35.6   .308   23.3   4.18
.05   Aaron Nesmith  Bos    16   17.9   .159    3.9   1.43
.04  Nemanja Bjelica  GS    29   10.6   .082   -1.1    .69
.03   Derrick White  Bos   159    7.4  -.007   -3.0    .14
.03   Malik Fitts    Bos     7   18.7   .188    9.3   1.56

wins   Finals         tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.02   Moses Moody     GS    11   12.3   .170    3.4    .07
.02   Daniel Theis   Bos    20    9.7   .035    0.4    .44
.02   Sam Hauser     Bos    11   10.2   .120    4.0    .29
.01   Nik Stauskas   Bos     9    8.3   .016   -1.2    .99
-.00  Juwan Morgan   Bos     6    2.0   .034   -3.9   -.60

-.01 Jonathan Kuminga GS     8    3.1   .031  -10.1   -.72
-.02 Juan T-Anderson  GS     8   -6.2  -.202  -12.1   -.50
-.04 Payton Pritchard Bos   67    4.5  -.068   -6.1   -.02
-.05  Damion Lee      GS     8  -17.4  -.397  -27.0  -1.10

wins   Finals         tm   Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
3.39    totals        GS  1440   15.5   .127   2.70   1.11
2.61    totals       Bos  1440   13.6   .078   1.74    .92

Posted: **Fri Jun 17, 2022 11:09 pm**

Curry closed out the Finals in arguably his best statistical game of the series, and with it, sealed his clear-cut unanimous NBA FMVP case.

Horford rediscovered the fountain of youth, and likely played his way back to the FMVP race had they forced a Gm. 7. Partly helped by the fact that Williams III had a solid, but not all that remarkable performance in Gm. 6.

Wiggins had his 2 best games of the Finals in the deciding games. Wiggins as the second most valuable player on the Warriors is not something I would have expected coming into this playoff matchup.

Tatum had his worst game with the season on the line, Brown tried to come along with Horford while getting a little bit from Williams III, and Smart was close to a complete non-factor. Horford and Williams III being the best/most valuable/most impactful players in the series is precisely the problem for the Celtics.

Udoka deciding not to make rotation adjustments and to ride-and-die with Grant Williams over Theis for the last 2 games was honestly unexpected.

Posted: **Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:36 pm**

Player 'wins' defined as the avg derived from WS, BPM, PER, and eWins. Game by game.

Code: Select all

Celts      1     2     3     4     5     6       T
Horford   .19  -.01   .16   .05   .05   .20  -  .64
RWilliams .07   .04   .15   .16   .13   .07  -  .62
Brown     .05   .01   .21   .04   .01   .14  -  .46
Tatum     .00   .11   .14   .05   .11  -.03  -  .38
Smart     .17  -.10   .07   .09   .03   .01  -  .27

GWilliams-.01   .04   .05   .00   .01   .00  -  .09
White     .10   .00   .00   .00  -.01  -.06  -  .03
Pritchard .08   .00   .01  -.05  -.05  -.03  - -.04
                        
totals    .67   .25   .73   .34   .32   .30  - 2.61
                        
                        
Warriors   1     2     3     4     5     6       T
Curry     .18   .24   .10   .29   .03   .31  - 1.15
Wiggins   .07   .02   .03   .08   .19   .12  -  .51
Looney    .06   .20   .02   .05   .03  -.01  -  .35
Payton    .00   .07   .00   .05   .16   .05  -  .33
Porter    .09   .11   .06   .01   .00   .05  -  .32

Green    -.09   .12  -.07   .08   .08  -.07  -  .23
Thompson  .02  -.07   .14   .07   .16  -.10  -  .22
Poole    -.07   .08  -.01   .05   .07  -.04  -  .22
Bjelica   .00   .07  -.01  -.03   .00   .00  -  .04
                        
totals    .34   .79   .23   .66   .68   .69  - 3.39

Curry had the 3 best individual games in the series.
White, Pritchard, and Bjelica each had one good game that would be greater than their series total.

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