APBRmetrics

Celtics now have tiebreaker with Bucks but need to reach a tie to use it.

A thread on tonight's starting lineup choice for Celtics:

https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 64613?s=20

R Williams only played one game against Heat in this regular season. Negative results with D White and zero minutes with Smart or Brogdon. In 2021-22 he had 2 great games with Smart. So little known for this series.

First game against Heat:

Smart - R Williams, -34 pts / 100p. With Brogdon and D White still negative but better and way better.

Game lost in Smart - R Williams time, as rest of time was won.

That is weird, since R Williams is the guy most reliant on passers, and Smart is the one real passer.
It may partly be that Horford is the more well-rounded player.

Pritchard had great (offensive) numbers in garbage time, nothing here in real time. When they needed D, they went for more O -- instead of with, say, Grant Williams.

Game 2 vs. Heat:

Smart - R Williams, -18 pts / 100. With Brogdon +50 and with D
White +32.

Game mostly lost in Smart - R Williams time, compared to rest of time combined.


Smart and Horford with 2nd and 3rd worst team raw game level +/-s on court for Celtics. White and Brogdon with 2 best.

I'd be looking hard at options to trade Jaylen Brown in near-term.

His tendency is to play as well or better in playoffs. Better 3fg%, 2fg%, FT%. BPM up 0.9
If everyone improves their BPM by 0.9, the team is about 4 ppg better than expected.

He just had 4 of his 15 worst games (BPM) of the year -- 2 of his 4 worst. We don't know why.
Announcers speculated it was Bam falling on his arm?
In the previous series, he shot .978, .666, .546, .681, .615, .559, .602

It seems a stretch to have him all-NBA 2nd team. But that could be a selling point.

Smart - R Williams time was time game 1 was lost and most of reason for game 2 loss. Damage could not be overcome.

D White / RWill time won game 6.

Celtics went against regular season data heavily favoring Smart pair with more time (and my advice to do the opposite) and it did not work for them.

https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 52896?s=20

2 more posts wrapping up the lineup management case.

So... now Coach Mazzulla can't play Smart with starters over White or Brogdon.

Issue addressed. Late and not directly recognizing the lineup issue I pointed out ahead of the Finals, but addressed.

The Trade looks very good for both Boston and Memphis. Smart is an excellent player but Boston became an increasingly poor fit for him.

Porzingis will be very useful if healthy and covers a few issues Boston face. White should finally see his minutes average over thirty.

How did Porzingis do recently against Embid and Jokic? Will want to check. Hopefully accurate matchup data will be found or presented.

Celtics give Jaylen Brown a $300 plus million extension.

Regular season: +1.3 BPM.-3.8 raw on / off.
Playoffs: -0.9 BPM -6.5 raw on / off.

112th on RAPM and 202 on LA-RAPM last season. 396th on 3 year LA-RAPM.

34th on Darko but 485th on DPM improvement (However that is measured. Request for clarification on Twitter weeks ago not answered.)


Not worth the money imo. Very good chance they trade him in a year or two, unless Tatum walks away. Title before that? Possible but far more likely no.

Would I trade for that contract? In most or all cases, heck no.

Teams create monster and fairly monster contracts (warranted and not) by the way they manage and don't manage play, especially usage. Sometimes unwisely.

Of last 11 Celtics draft picks, 2 are still on current roster. One has played regularly off the bench and 1 has played a little.

Smart's Darko PM projection is still good but lost 40% this season, putting him in bottom 20% for season change.

The rate of change has been getting lesser for 5 straight years but this was the first negative season.



Brogdon at just +0.1 on Darko projection. But that was no change from a year ago.

D White improved enough this season to slightly pass Smart on Darko and take his job.

Horford lost 70% of his projection. Still better than G Williams though.,

Biggest contract extension in NBA history Jaylen Brown lost almost half of his Darko projection, putting him in bottom 5% in league for rate of change.


Porzingis, 70% improvement

(See anyone else check and cite these Darko projections? I haven't.)

(Exact parameters of DPM "improvement"? Not stated in app and no response to inquiry about it.)