Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

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Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

SGA and Giddey both in top 25 on assist rate among minute qualifiers but 25% or more behind the top group of 8.

Both in 5 lowest in that group of 25 on A/TO at well less than 2 to 1. (VanVleet at 8.25 to 1.)
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

21 more brand new lineups tonight, bringing totals far to 86 in just 4 games.

Only 2 lineups with 10 plus minutes and just 7 lineups used in 2 games and none more than that.


SGA Mann Dort surged to +46pts / 48 minutes in 32 minutes of trial. Add Wiggins and Muscala and it is +82... in 6 minutes. How many minutes will the trio and 5 man get in next few games?

7 trios with more minutes than this one are all negative, mostly bad to worse. 5 man with JRE instead of Muscala was also great in 8 minutes.

For season, for lineups with more than 8 minutes, all the best quads draw exclusively from SGA Mann Dort Wiggins JRE Muscala. Great results in short minutes while Coach D plays with around 260 other quads.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Thunder with 3rd worst efg%, 2nd worst ts%, worst FT rate (bye bye dribble drive reality if not ghost philosophy). 6th worst offensive efficiency. Even aided by 2 games against Clippers.

3rd worst from 3. Below average at the rim. Modestly better than average on long 2s but those are still below average efficiency shots.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Dieng Bazley Pokusevski was one of Coach D's things last night. Didn't work, while most other things did. -52pts / 100p for season. Short minutes in absolute terms but 4th most used Poku trio.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

103 different lineups used in 5 games.

Average of almost 24 total lineups per game. 20 brand new and 4 repeats (but only one more than twice).

2 lineups over 15 minutes for season. Both super horrendous (-30s pts / 100p).

Clear cut best set of bigger minute pairs involve SGA, Mann, Dort and Wiggins. And yet only 23 of 240 total to date minutes went to the full quad. Too busy playing with 293 other quads. Include JRE or Muscala, it mostly work. Inject someone else or 2 others mostly not.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

6 games played and no 5 man lineup over 16 minutes. 118 lineups used.

335 different quads used.

Some good looking combos but in far shorter minutes of test than it could be.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

JRE privileged to play with top guys but negative pairs with all of them but Wiggins (and rest of pairs except for Muscala).

Muscala positive with everyone but Pokusevski and Omoruyi. Usually massively positive.

JRE with more minutes and more prime minutes.


Mann fits with best quad and Muscala and very little of bench. Who goes to bench role when Giddey returns? Wiggins, Mann... Giddey?

Do they now care about this season results?
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

9 most used Giddey quads all negative (none with Muscala). 10th positive, with Muscala. So what will they do and why when Giddey is ready to return? Probably not play him much with Muscala. Cuz...?
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

SGA - no Giddey 30pts / 100p better in early run than with Giddey. Giddey - no SGA 45pts worse than SGA alone.

Will want to see next couple hundred minutes.

Win streak started after Giddey exited.

Giddey, 13th best on team for on court +/- (horrible), 14th best on / off (horrendous).

Plenty of new guys and rarely tried with Giddey guys. Or can persist with pairs and lineups with a record of not working to date.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

The new Poku? Might have looked better a few days ago but not right now. BPM of -5.7, close to rookie season level. Worst ts% of career. Rebound and assist rates below career averages. Dead last on raw +/- on court and on / off.

K Williams? 4 year extension. Veteran leader? Worst BPM of career. 2nd worst on team for on and on / off +/-.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Two player pairs of Giddey, SGA and Dort horrible in the win, one bad. Trio, horrible.

Up to 135 lineups in 7 games. Rate of new lineups slowing only modestly.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Going to be hard for Giddey to reach his potential without better shooters around him. Going to be hard for Giddey to reach his perceived potential without shooting better.

Giddey right now, 44% efg%, 45% ts%, 25% from 3, 67% ft%.

Will he and Shai fit long term?
No sign in stats that they will. But we'll see if anything changes in 2 weeks, months, years.

Giddey as starting PF? Giddey as second unit PG. Little known about first. 2nd probably not a success so far. Giddey as starting PG, clear failure to date, by team results. Giddey on court last season, team loses by 8.5pts / 100p. This season, loses by 15.

On DARKO projection Giddey estimated as 448th best. Estimate failing since late season.

Giddey on another team, the assists could go up but does the offense or winning? Giddey on court this season, Thunder offensive efficiency of 98. Off, 116. Total on / off of -26 right now.

FT rate went from 1/2 league average last season to less than 1/4th now. Not a strong case to pressure his drive or shot.

Defense? A topic for later.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

20 5 man lineups used by Coach D tonight for Thunder. 65% non-positive. 149 for season, 58% non-positive. Only 5 lineups used in 3 games and none more. Only 4 used over 10 minutes for season.

102 TRIOS USED TONIGHT. 60% non-positive. 316 for season, 56% non-positive. Only 9 (3%) used 50 plus minutes for season.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Looking forward from this moment, the Thunder have a star in SGA, promising future starters in Holmgren and Jalen Williams... and 13 guys who currently look like bench players or future departures. Some of those could advance beyond that but aren't fully past that threshold yet imo and there are significant doubts of it.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

The Thunder's 149 lineups to date is 40-50% more than Rockets, Pacers, Kings, Magic, Jazz... 10% more than Spurs. Near to more than double Pistons and Wizards.

Potential for learning with Thunder playing a different lineup on average every 4 minutes and ONLY for an average of 4 minutes for season, but... imo more potential for meaningful learning in a far less chaotic style.
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