APBRmetrics

Sports books appear to all have Wizards as lowest win team next season.

NBAStuffer data suggests Wizards had / has the largest analytical staff in league.


Clearly below average on offensive & defensive efficiency. In top 40% on only 2 of 8 factors. Below average on all 3 parts of Moreyball. -3 wins on actual wins - expected. That's a lot of shortfalls.


Shortfalls due to players on the court, in Coaching, in management, in analytics? It was some combination.

Most used lineups had mixed / pretty good results... but none used even 2 minutes per game for season. So basically no meaningful practice / testing or learning at 5 man lineup level.

Changed out front office leadership, stars and some other. More to go.

From April:

Crow wrote: ↑Sun Apr 23, 2023 10:08 pm I'd trade Beal. I might trade Porzingis (if able)...

In agreement with those moves. A start...



(Prior management / ownership way off & late on moving Beal of course. And anyone who agreed with or didn't argue hard against those decisions.)

Wizards, 1-3, tied for 13th in east by record, worst SRS in league.

Only one lineup over 2 minutes per game. Starters are -7pts / 100p.

All of 10 most used pairs are negative, most horrendous. Poole / Kuzma starts out -21pts / 100p.

Best bigger minute pairs are Kispert with Poole and Kuzma. But neither pair has gotten more than about 1/4 of the minutes. The trio is much lighter at only 10% of minutes. No awareness of or interest in the early +19pts / 100p for that bright light?

A couple of players with tiny minutes look good. A couple meh. A majority bad.

Horrible rebounding, horrible shot defense.

Strong fga at the rim rate, average on other 2 components of Moreyball.

24th on attendance.

Coulibaly off to a weak start.

Next steps for Wizards from here imo include:

Trading Poole ASAP. Probably Kuzma at some point. Galinari. Lots of others, if possible.

Get a new starting lineup and someone pushing for more lineup concentration.

Do some thing(s) to fix the worst defense in the league.

Right now, WAS should be focusing on development and putting smart winning players around the core of Coulibaly, Avdija and Gafford, rather than any specific team outcomes,

Kispert is also a solid young complimentary player.

Jones is a good interim solution at PG, but given his age and talent level, definitely not the long-term primary ball-handler for the team.

Kuzma is an NBA veteran with championship experience. I’m fine keeping him unless a better opportunity at the 4 position comes in the future (whether in the draft or a trade), with Gallinari as his backup.

Kuzma and Jones should stay on this team unless they ask to be traded to a contender and the deal makes sense for the Wizards. Personally, if I was those teams, I would trade for Wright as a Caruso-type playmaker.

Coulibaly has Antetokounmpo-style raw potential, which could be undermined by placing him in suboptimal lineups and/or around below-average players.

Honestly, the biggest issue with Poole is his burdensome contract. Otherwise, I would fine simply bringing him off the bench. He shouldn’t be starting and needs to be traded by the deadline for assets (promising players and draft picks) and to clear cap.

Finally, the starting lineup should be: Jones-Coulibaly-Avdija-Kuzma-Gafford.

Then, Wright, Poole, Gallinari and Kispert come.off the bench in that order.

"...the starting lineup should be: Jones-Coulibaly-Kuzma-Gafford."

Who is the 5th?

Crow wrote: ↑Sun Nov 05, 2023 5:40 pm "...the starting lineup should be: Jones-Coulibaly-Kuzma-Gafford."

Who is the 5th?

Fixed.

Coulibaly Avdia Gafford...

Used 1 minute (+82 /100p)

No time yet for that future core with Jones and Kuzma.

Coach with whatever input from analytics and rest of front office has picked 19 negative trios in 20 most used, 60% worse than -10. Hard to do worse than that, with opponents likely easing in lead (we are told).



I guess they could be tanking... and / or just really bad.

Yeah, pretty sure when you jettison much of your top tier talent and replace it with mediocre players, you are just bad.

https://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=40625#p40625

When I said bad, I meant players and beyond players.

Wizards certainly the by far worst on that net impact of transactions table and realized in results to date.

Some teams had later transactions; but on the early table, very few (5) improved by more than 3 estimated wins.

The draft hasn't had much impact, almost all negative for now.

Still early in the Rockets case but seeing payoff so far.

Poole and Kuzma with clear team worst raw +/-s today. Both in -20s.

Coulibaly goes for 20 points and a small +/- positive in by far biggest stats game yet.

Wizards with one of two worst records and bottom 25% on SRS.

Pistons same.

Continue to look past it? I'd think some reaction / evaluation should come.

What fraction of plan are working? Only small ones, if any.

Wizards fall to 15% win.

4 of the most used lineups (recommended?), 3 terrible to unspeakable. 95% of 20 most used pairs negative.

Where is the understanding, vision, fit?

Smashed by 30 tonight.