2023 Conference Finals: Den-LA & Bos-Mia

[Mike G]

Last chance for Butler to reverse his recent games decline enough to challenge for title this year... or ever?

Yet Butler can still (seemingly) go out in the 4th and get 2 points (or 3) in any game.
His last 2 have bottomed out at .12 eWins. Only Tatum and (barely) Martin have had more than one game as good as Jimmy's worst!

Boston can field 5 guys who can hit 3's AND rebound AND play strong D. They just have shooting slumps.

Miami's decimation at guard has left Bam to bring the ball up a lot. This seems to throw off his game some. He's more of a high post passer.

In any case, not the best time for active teams to contemplate breaking up the ship or whom to throw over.

[Crow]

Quite the game 7 for Brown.

Not the time for Celtics to hear my trade suggestion before the game but it was time I decided to say it. It is or will be more common now.

[Mike G]

Heat 4 - 3 Celtics
avg score 109.1 - 105.3
Pyth wins 4.32 - 2.68 , eWins 3.91 - 3.09

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.33  Jimmy Butler   Mia   40  .509   21.1   8.3   5.7   2.4   2.2   .4   2.29
1.13  Jayson Tatum   Bos   41  .577   21.7   9.1   4.8    .9   3.4   .6   1.90
.82   Caleb Martin   Mia   36  .734   20.3   7.6   1.7    .9   1.1   .6   1.59
.66   Bam Adebayo    Mia   37  .528   14.0  10.8   4.4    .9   3.3   .6   1.23
.47   Derrick White  Bos   30  .709   17.0   3.0   2.3   1.4   1.0  1.5   1.06

.40   Marcus Smart   Bos   34  .571   13.1   3.9   5.3   1.5   2.5   .2    .79
.40   Jaylen Brown   Bos   37  .460   15.8   5.9   3.3   1.1   3.6   .3    .73
.35  Duncan Robinson Mia   18  .708   21.3   2.9   4.4    .7   1.9   .2   1.31
.35  Robert Williams Bos   19  .759   17.3   8.8    .7    .3   1.3  2.0   1.26
.30   Gabe Vincent   Mia   30  .642   16.8   2.7   2.3    .7   1.4   .5    .69

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.23   Al Horford     Bos   29  .490    7.1   7.8   3.2    .9    .5  1.1    .55
.16   Kevin Love     Mia    9  .543   12.9  15.1   1.1   1.7   2.4   .0   1.29
.13   Kyle Lowry     Mia   25  .480    8.2   6.4   5.2   1.4   3.2   .6    .37
.09   Max Strus      Mia   29  .555   10.6   4.3   1.1    .2    .0   .0    .22
.05  Grant Williams  Bos   21  .643    9.4   4.1   1.8    .4    .5   .7    .16

.03 Payton Pritchard Bos    5  .500   12.1   2.5   5.8    .0   1.7   .0    .50
.03   Sam Hauser     Bos    3  .417    8.8   9.5   1.2    .0    .0  1.2    .74
.03   Cody Zeller    Mia    8  .485    7.2  11.1    .0    .0   1.7  1.6    .29
.02   Ha. Highsmith  Mia    7  .773   10.4   2.1   1.2   1.8    .0   .0    .21
-.04 Malcolm Brogdon Bos   16  .391    7.3   3.6   2.2    .3   1.4   .8   -.15

shooting : Mia .580 - .560 Bos
rebounds: Bos 41.3 - 40.6 Mia
turnovers: Mia 12.4 - 13.1 Bos

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. Heat     PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Celts    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Butler    22.6   .164    5.2   2.29      Tatum    19.8   .117    3.1   1.90
Adebayo   14.3   .078   -1.1   1.23      Brown     9.8  -.071   -5.4    .73
Martin    20.8   .210    6.7   1.59      Smart    13.5   .075    0.6    .79
Vincent   14.0   .133    0.6    .69      White    18.4   .178    7.0   1.06
Strus      9.2   .084   -2.8    .22      Horford  11.0   .081    0.5    .55
Lowry      8.9   .016   -2.8    .37    G Williams 11.7   .125    0.3    .16
Robinson  20.7   .203    7.2   1.31    R Williams 23.0   .210    3.8   1.26
Love      13.8   .084   -1.8   1.29      Brogdon   4.5  -.084   -8.0   -.15
Zeller    10.4   .049   -6.6    .29     Pritchard 13.0   .067   -1.3    .50
Highsmith 14.8   .179    5.9    .21      Hauser   16.4   .087    0.0    .74
Jović      7.6   .009   -7.5    .21      Kornet   31.3   .363   10.1   1.16
Yurtseven  9.6  -.043  -15.2    .29      Muscala  20.3   .198    2.0    .35
. totals  15.7   .124   1.46   1.12     . totals  14.5   .081   0.59    .88