2025-26 team win projection contest

[Mike G]

These are career to date impact estimates or to a certain year or peak?

Rookie season averages in these stats, by draft pick, 2013-2025

[DSMok1]

Yes.^^
I messed around with age adjustment and decided (again) not to bother.
Also "yes" for WShr, perW, and eWin.

Today's top-to-bottom spread is smallest yet! Down from 2.47 on Jan 9, to 1.91 now.
The whole field has improved since then, by an avg of .60 in MAE:
1.04 KPel
.89 DQin
.88 Crow
.80 Mgoo
.80 avgA
.73 WShr
.68 bpmW
.67 medi
.65 25pr
.63 dtka
.58 eWin
.47 Walr
.47 knar
.40 EExp
.40 bmgm
.37 Ebet
.24 perW
.16 DRKO

I do have detailed aging curves developed for BPM; next year we can include those.

[nbacouchside]

Yes.^^
I messed around with age adjustment and decided (again) not to bother.
Also "yes" for WShr, perW, and eWin.

Today's top-to-bottom spread is smallest yet! Down from 2.47 on Jan 9, to 1.91 now.
The whole field has improved since then, by an avg of .60 in MAE:
1.04 KPel
.89 DQin
.88 Crow
.80 Mgoo
.80 avgA
.73 WShr
.68 bpmW
.67 medi
.65 25pr
.63 dtka
.58 eWin
.47 Walr
.47 knar
.40 EExp
.40 bmgm
.37 Ebet
.24 perW
.16 DRKO

I do have detailed aging curves developed for BPM; next year we can include those.

[DSMok1]

I laid out a true BPM 2.0 projection system in this post:
viewtopic.php?p=37451#p37451

I just haven't gotten around to actually doing them ahead of the season.

I also have better priors now than those mentioned in that post

[Mike G]

Everyone takes a beating from yesterday's season-best averages, by an avg of .17 -- none more than bpmW, by .27

Code: Select all

.   avg err   rmse   r^2          avg err   rmse   r^2
knar   6.38   7.72   .51      EExp   6.73   8.11   .47
DRKO   6.43   7.67   .52      dtka   6.82   8.22   .46
Walr   6.44   8.00   .48      eWin   6.99   8.66   .41
bmgm   6.47   7.81   .55      25pr   7.06   9.20   .35
bpmW   6.49   7.90   .50      Crow   7.15   8.86   .43
avgA   6.51   8.14   .47      perW   7.37   9.31   .34
WShr   6.54   8.68   .41      medi   7.52   9.15   .43
Mgoo   6.60   8.37   .45      KPel   7.91   9.53   .36
Ebet   6.70   7.98   .54      DQin   8.39  10.46   .32

https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html

UPDATE Jan. 31 -- all of the top 8 change positions; no one below that.

Code: Select all

.   avg err   rmse   r^2          avg err   rmse   r^2
bmgm   6.40   7.85   .55      EExp   6.69   8.15   .47
bpmW   6.43   7.95   .50      dtka   6.87   8.31   .45
DRKO   6.43   7.75   .52      eWin   7.00   8.69   .41
knar   6.49   7.78   .51      25pr   7.20   9.30   .34
avgA   6.51   8.20   .47      Crow   7.22   8.89   .43
Walr   6.51   8.07   .48      perW   7.27   9.30   .35
Mgoo   6.61   8.41   .45      medi   7.60   9.24   .42
WShr   6.63   8.73   .41      KPel   7.88   9.58   .36
Ebet   6.63   7.99   .54      DQin   8.43  10.53   .31

New leader is BetMGM, a 2nd gambling entity I added on Jan. 5 [What I had called Vegas is now Ebet].
Last year at this time, they were a distant last place, almost 3 off the lead.
This is the 7th entry to be on top since mid-Nov and 4th in the last 8 days.