APBRmetrics

It looks fairly promising but could swing. At least half a dozen are still contenders, probably. I have lost and I think led and then not gotten first. Passed on competition the last 2 yrs. This is probably last unless I find reason to make a bigger commitment (actually betting?).

I know a lot of people here aren't interested in gambling, but the people who participate in this contest could easily make money on the win total O/Us if they figure out an appropriate betting strategy. The bets I made based on my near last-place entry are still on pace to win money (using the hollinger, bbref, and wins+pyth% predictions as barometers), and they have won me money in the past as well.

If I was actually any good at this contest like some of you have repeatedly shown you are, I would be betting larger amounts of money. Pro gamblers might not want to bet on those O/Us since it locks up their money for 5 months, but that shouldn't be a concern for most of you.

Updated chart:

Crow wrote:It looks fairly promising but could swing. At least half a dozen are still contenders, probably. I have lost and I think led and then not gotten first. Passed on competition the last 2 yrs. This is probably last unless I find reason to make a bigger commitment (actually betting?).

Edit: Never mind. Testing out-of-sample prediction power on a non-complete season was not the right thing to do.

Welp.

Some predictions down early have stormed back to decent to good performances by the end. Schedules have uneven effects.

Really interested to see how RWB's return impacts future results here.

crow's still holding a strong lead
the pyth + 0.500 entry is dropping/has dropped down to the bottom
as a group, 5 of the biggest misses so far are: OKC, SAC, CHA, TOR, MIN

sndesai1 wrote: as a group, 5 of the biggest misses so far are: OKC, SAC, CHA, TOR, MIN

OKC: Missing Westbrook wasn't expected, and Durant being back now should improve their chances. In my prediction I had Durant back at full strength in mid December.
SAC: Improvement for Cousins on the defensive end was likely not expected. Maybe the Team USA experience helped there? Collison also better than expected (at least for me), but overall I don't see the Kings keeping that up, because the bench is not well suited and we saw in the past, that this will cost a team a lot in the West (e.g. Portland anno 2013). Although, their schedule so far was extremely tough.
CHA: Real disappointment. Not even the playing level of Stephenson, who was likely more overrated in public. I likely underrated the impact by their shooting bigs last season (McRoberts and Tolliver), especially with their effect on the Walker-Jefferson combo. Marvin Williams should have compensated the loss of McRoberts and Tolliver, but he really doesn't. Don't see them being able to dig themselves out of that hole anytime soon and without a trade.
TOR: Quick start to the season, their offense is really working well, some better-than-expected improvements for their young players and Lou Williams looks clearly better than last season. Though, I don't expect them to keep their offensive level up even though that is not based on lucky 3pt shooting.
Min: Those injuries to Rubio, Pekovic, etc. don't help at all. If I take that into account, I end up with 20 wins for the T-Wolves instead of 38.

For me I would add two teams as a surprise: The Bucks as a positive example and the Pistons as a negative example. Given their respective coaching changes, I actually questioned my prediction in the exact opposite direction for those two teams.

The Clipps are another big disappointment, projecting from 9 to 16 wins less than we guessed.
The Celtics are a good surprise, on pace for 2 to 20 wins beyond our projections.

And nobody supposed the East could be this weak: Winning just .284 of games vs the West, and that with 51 of 95 games at home.

Mike G wrote:The Clipps are another big disappointment, projecting from 9 to 16 wins less than we guessed.

Not quite sure on what your numbers here are based, but I had them at 55 wins before the season, now they played about 1 point worse than I had them (adjusted for SOS), which equates to about 3 wins less. Taking the average of Hollinger's and BBR's simulation for the remainder of the season, they are expected to win 52 games. Who had them with 68 wins?

Edit: I think, you likely meant the Cavs and not the Clippers.

Mike G wrote: The Celtics are a good surprise, on pace for 2 to 20 wins beyond our projections.

Indeed.

Mike G wrote: And nobody supposed the East could be this weak: Winning just .284 of games vs the West, and that with 51 of 95 games at home.

Last season the average level adjusted for SOS for the East was -2.1, this season so far it is -2.7. Some of the difference can be explained by fluctuations at the current sample size. We might find a similar win% in a 95 game stretch last season. Also schedule so far had the Hornets, Pistons and 76ers with the most games against the West from the EC so far, and the Mavericks, Suns and Warriors (tied with T-Wolves, Spurs, Blazers, Thunder and Jazz) with the most against the East.

Here are the current b-r.com projections
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fri ... [code]West W East W
GSW 57 Tor 58
Mem 56 Cle 48
Por 55 Was 47
Dal 53 Chi 46
SAS 52 Atl 45
LAC 50 Mia 39
Hou 48 Mil 38
Sac 46 Ind 37
NOP 44 Bos 36
Phx 43 Brk 36
Den 42 Orl 33
Okl 34 Cha 30
Uta 32 NYK 26
LAL 31 Det 26
Min 26 Phl 18
avg 44.5 avg 37.5
[/code]
And avg error by our predictors: Who is this AJb1 anyway?

mystic wrote:Mike G wrote:
The Clipps are another big disappointment, projecting from 9 to 16 wins less than we guessed.


Not quite sure on what your numbers here are based, but I had them at 55 wins before the season, now they played about 1 point worse than I had them (adjusted for SOS), which equates to about 3 wins less.

My numbers were from before 2 or 3 dominant games since then -- sorry about that. We now see b-r.com puts them at 50.2 wins; relative to our range of 55-62, we're only 5 to 12 wins away.

Yeah, you were low on them, at 54.8

AJ is Andrew Johnson. https://mobile.twitter.com/CountingBaskets?p=s
b1 is his player tracking pm.

OKC: Lack of Russell "Greatest of all time" Westbrook has hurt pretty much everyone's projections.
SAC: I got nothin'. This year's Phoenix.
CHA: Think I did OK on them. No MKG has definitely damaged their record.
TOR: OK, maybe also this year's Phoenix.
MIN: No Rubio is killing the +/- based projections.

So who here is using their own metric for predictions?

I really wish I had incorporated player tracking stats at least a little into my SPM. Looks like it's quite worthwhile, especially for interior defense....

It'll be really interesting if the player tracking model destroys most people -- it'll say a lot about what's important.

AcrossTheCourt wrote:So who here is using their own metric for predictions?

I do. But keep in mind possible differences in terms of minute predictions.

AcrossTheCourt wrote: It'll be really interesting if the player tracking model destroys most people -- it'll say a lot about what's important.

Yeah, I think there is a lot of value for the defensive end in that data. The right blend with a suitable SPM and RAPM should really do wonders.