2017-18 team win projection contest

[Crow]

Jacob G., is there some blend of PIPM and RPM that beats everything? How does 50/50 blend do? Is there a notable difference how each does separately for good / bad teams, major / minor players?

[Crow]

Separation of top & bottom is 1: that is small. How much is random vs. sustainable precision difference? Maybe there ought to be a multi-year projection contest in future for entries that can do that.

Or less complicated, use existing projections to run the playoff brackets after they are determined.

[Mike G]

A new [co] leader

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
cali   4.52   5.71      kmed   4.87   5.97
sbs.   4.54   5.57      Nath   4.93   6.04
RyRi   4.58   5.54      emin   5.02   5.90
538_   4.61   5.82      GK5.   5.02   6.47
lnqi   4.61   5.65      ATCt   5.10   6.50
shad   4.69   5.96      Crow   5.13   6.22
sndi   4.75   5.52      Josh   5.15   6.16
vegas  4.76   5.85      knar   5.31   6.51
AJBk   4.84   5.95      Mike   5.42   6.42
gold   4.85   6.06      ncs.   5.59   6.88

Top 5's for various exponents:

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exp =  0.15      exp =  0.70      exp =  1.30
538_   2.74      cali   4.04      sbs.   4.87
GK5.   2.81      538_   4.14      RyRi   4.90
cali   2.92      sbs.   4.18      cali   4.94
AJBk   2.95      lnqi   4.20      lnqi   4.96
RyRi   3.02      RyRi   4.21      sndi   5.00

exp =  1.77      exp =  5.00      exp =  10.0
RyRi   5.34      sndi   7.12      emin   8.58
sbs.   5.35      RyRi   7.35      sndi   8.61
sndi   5.36      lnqi   7.38      lnqi   8.68
lnqi   5.44      emin   7.43      RyRi   8.71
cali   5.48      sbs.   7.56      AJBk   8.94

[Mike G]

That didn't last long

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
RyRi   4.69   5.78      Nath   5.08   6.24
sbs.   4.75   5.83      GK5.   5.08   6.69
cali   4.77   5.96      gold   5.10   6.28
538_   4.78   5.99      emin   5.10   6.07
lnqi   4.82   5.92      Crow   5.28   6.44
shad   4.84   6.20      Josh   5.28   6.36
sndi   4.89   5.73      ATCt   5.32   6.76
vegas  4.91   6.09      knar   5.53   6.78
AJBk   4.96   6.15      Mike   5.59   6.66
kmed   4.97   6.19      ncs.   5.72   7.11

The 4.69 leading number is highest/worst since Dec. 24, also the last day sndesai was on top.
RyRi then rode the top spot down to the season's low of 3.79 on Jan. 4. He and sbs then were 1-2 thru Feb.

[Crow]

Best avg. absolute error showing worse right now than best from end of last season but still time to tighten up. Less than 1 difference. Not sure I really care that much about the last win error on avg. Looks like pretty good to good to me.

[Mike G]

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
538_   5.05   6.34      GK5.   5.33   7.04
RyRi   5.05   6.18      emin   5.33   6.38
sbs.   5.08   6.24      Nath   5.40   6.57
cali   5.10   6.31      Josh   5.57   6.74
sndi   5.17   6.08      Crow   5.58   6.79
kmed   5.18   6.48      gold   5.62   6.78
lnqi   5.21   6.33      ATCt   5.62   7.06
shad   5.24   6.64      Mike   5.71   6.89
vegas  5.26   6.52      knar   5.78   7.05
AJBk   5.26   6.52      ncs.   6.07   7.38

Last time the leader was over 5 was early Dec. Back then, last place was over 7.

Leaders tend to be those who have avoided major misses. Risk taking extremists get pummeled.

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.      Best                 Worst
538_   Atl,Was,GSW,LAL    Orl,Tor
RyRi   Chi,NYK
sbs.   Det,Mia
cali   Det,Was
sndi   Cha,NYK,SAS            Chi
kmed   Phx,Por,Sac    
.             Cha,Det,NYK,Was,NOP
lnqi   Atl,Sac                NOP
shad   Mia,NYK            Hou,Mem
AJBk   Ind,Mia,Mil,Min,OKC,Sac  
.                         Atl,LAC
GK5.   Chi,Cle,Mia,Mil,GSW,Uta  
.                 Phl,Hou,Phx,SAS
emin   Cha,Orl,Tor    Den,Min,Por
Nath   Cha,Phl            Ind,Was
Josh   Den,Uta        Bos,Por,Sac
Crow   Atl,Dal,Phx            Was
gold   Atl,Cle    Ind,Mia,NOP,OKC
ATCt   ..                     Cha
Mike   Mia,Hou,LAC,Min,NOP,SAS 
.             Brk,Det,Dal,GSW,Uta
knar   Brk,Mem,Phx            Det
ncs.   ..     Bos,Cle,GSW,LAC,LAL

Ties are also listed (rounded to integer).

UPDATE Mar. 13

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
538_   5.20   6.69      GK5.   5.60   7.38
sndi   5.31   6.37      Nath   5.64   6.88
cali   5.32   6.65      AJBk   5.70   6.94
sbs.   5.33   6.63      ATCt   5.79   7.38
RyRi   5.33   6.55      Crow   5.86   7.14
kmed   5.34   6.79      gold   5.88   7.10
lnqi   5.38   6.67      Josh   5.94   7.10
emin   5.41   6.61      knar   5.99   7.42
shad   5.50   7.03      Mike   6.00   7.27
vegas  5.51   6.90      ncs.   6.30   7.76

[Mike G]

Raptors and Rockets each with 1/3 chance of winning it all, according to b-r.com
Showing prob of reaching the Finals; winning it; and chance of winning IF they get there:

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C    tm   reach   win    W/R
e   Tor   .636   .327   .514
w   Hou   .493   .327   .663
w   GSW   .352   .221   .628
e   Bos   .179   .052   .29
e   Phl   .068   .014   .21
w   Uta   .032   .012   .38
w   OKC   .027   .009   .33
w   Min   .036   .008   .22
w   Por   .026   .007   .27
e   Ind   .039   .006   .15
e   Was   .031   .005   .16
e   Cle   .020   .003   .15

https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html

[nbacouchside]

Turns out that screwing up your aging curve has a pretty big effect!

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
538_   5.05   6.34      GK5.   5.33   7.04
RyRi   5.05   6.18      emin   5.33   6.38
sbs.   5.08   6.24      Nath   5.40   6.57
cali   5.10   6.31      Josh   5.57   6.74
sndi   5.17   6.08      Crow   5.58   6.79
kmed   5.18   6.48      gold   5.62   6.78
lnqi   5.21   6.33      ATCt   5.62   7.06
shad   5.24   6.64      Mike   5.71   6.89
vegas  5.26   6.52      knar   5.78   7.05
AJBk   5.26   6.52      ncs.   6.07   7.38

Last time the leader was over 5 was early Dec. Back then, last place was over 7.

Leaders tend to be those who have avoided major misses. Risk taking extremists get pummeled.

Code: Select all

.      Best                 Worst
538_   Atl,Was,GSW,LAL    Orl,Tor
RyRi   Chi,NYK
sbs.   Det,Mia
cali   Det,Was
sndi   Cha,NYK,SAS            Chi
kmed   Phx,Por,Sac    
.             Cha,Det,NYK,Was,NOP
lnqi   Atl,Sac                NOP
shad   Mia,NYK            Hou,Mem
AJBk   Ind,Mia,Mil,Min,OKC,Sac  
.                         Atl,LAC
GK5.   Chi,Cle,Mia,Mil,GSW,Uta  
.                 Phl,Hou,Phx,SAS
emin   Cha,Orl,Tor    Den,Min,Por
Nath   Cha,Phl            Ind,Was
Josh   Den,Uta        Bos,Por,Sac
Crow   Atl,Dal,Phx            Was
gold   Atl,Cle    Ind,Mia,NOP,OKC
ATCt   ..                     Cha
Mike   Mia,Hou,LAC,Min,NOP,SAS 
.             Brk,Det,Dal,GSW,Uta
knar   Brk,Mem,Phx            Det
ncs.   ..     Bos,Cle,GSW,LAC,LAL

Ties are also listed (rounded to integer).

UPDATE Mar. 13

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
538_   5.20   6.69      GK5.   5.60   7.38
sndi   5.31   6.37      Nath   5.64   6.88
cali   5.32   6.65      AJBk   5.70   6.94
sbs.   5.33   6.63      ATCt   5.79   7.38
RyRi   5.33   6.55      Crow   5.86   7.14
kmed   5.34   6.79      gold   5.88   7.10
lnqi   5.38   6.67      Josh   5.94   7.10
emin   5.41   6.61      knar   5.99   7.42
shad   5.50   7.03      Mike   6.00   7.27
vegas  5.51   6.90      ncs.   6.30   7.76

[eminence]

Blazing up the rankings, woohoo, wonder if it's mostly my Jazz getting closer to expactations or what.

[Mike G]

That has certainly helped. Other improving teams that favor your positions: GSW, LAC
Also teams getting worse: Atl, Brk, Det, NYK, Dal, Phx

Despite having 11 of the most extreme guesses, you have only 3 of the worst for a team.
Your Tor prediction of 56 is the biggest outlier on the board, fully 8 wins above the avg and 5 higher than anyone else. It's one of 4 that you have a best guess.

At any exponent >7, you would be at #1; currently 3rd in RMSE (e=2).

[eminence]

That has certainly helped. Other improving teams that favor your positions: GSW, LAC
Also teams getting worse: Atl, Brk, Det, NYK, Dal, Phx

Despite having 11 of the most extreme guesses, you have only 3 of the worst for a team.
Your Tor prediction of 56 is the biggest outlier on the board, fully 8 wins above the avg and 5 higher than anyone else. It's one of 4 that you have a best guess.

At any exponent >7, you would be at #1; currently 3rd in RMSE (e=2).

Thanks for breaking it down Mike!

Only payed attention to the teams getting better, it's just not much fun to follow those lower teams at this point in the season (for me).

And thanks Toronto!

[GK5]

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
538_   5.05   6.34      GK5.   5.33   7.04
RyRi   5.05   6.18      emin   5.33   6.38
sbs.   5.08   6.24      Nath   5.40   6.57
cali   5.10   6.31      Josh   5.57   6.74
sndi   5.17   6.08      Crow   5.58   6.79
kmed   5.18   6.48      gold   5.62   6.78
lnqi   5.21   6.33      ATCt   5.62   7.06
shad   5.24   6.64      Mike   5.71   6.89
vegas  5.26   6.52      knar   5.78   7.05
AJBk   5.26   6.52      ncs.   6.07   7.38

Last time the leader was over 5 was early Dec. Back then, last place was over 7.

Leaders tend to be those who have avoided major misses. Risk taking extremists get pummeled.

Code: Select all

.      Best                 Worst
538_   Atl,Was,GSW,LAL    Orl,Tor
RyRi   Chi,NYK
sbs.   Det,Mia
cali   Det,Was
sndi   Cha,NYK,SAS            Chi
kmed   Phx,Por,Sac    
.             Cha,Det,NYK,Was,NOP
lnqi   Atl,Sac                NOP
shad   Mia,NYK            Hou,Mem
AJBk   Ind,Mia,Mil,Min,OKC,Sac  
.                         Atl,LAC
GK5.   Chi,Cle,Mia,Mil,GSW,Uta  
.                 Phl,Hou,Phx,SAS
emin   Cha,Orl,Tor    Den,Min,Por
Nath   Cha,Phl            Ind,Was
Josh   Den,Uta        Bos,Por,Sac
Crow   Atl,Dal,Phx            Was
gold   Atl,Cle    Ind,Mia,NOP,OKC
ATCt   ..                     Cha
Mike   Mia,Hou,LAC,Min,NOP,SAS 
.             Brk,Det,Dal,GSW,Uta
knar   Brk,Mem,Phx            Det
ncs.   ..     Bos,Cle,GSW,LAC,LAL

Ties are also listed (rounded to integer).

UPDATE Mar. 13

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
538_   5.20   6.69      GK5.   5.60   7.38
sndi   5.31   6.37      Nath   5.64   6.88
cali   5.32   6.65      AJBk   5.70   6.94
sbs.   5.33   6.63      ATCt   5.79   7.38
RyRi   5.33   6.55      Crow   5.86   7.14
kmed   5.34   6.79      gold   5.88   7.10
lnqi   5.38   6.67      Josh   5.94   7.10
emin   5.41   6.61      knar   5.99   7.42
shad   5.50   7.03      Mike   6.00   7.27
vegas  5.51   6.90      ncs.   6.30   7.76

Were my results as extreme as Eminence's? It seems like I had one of the most best/worst guesses on the board. My avg abs err is mid tier, but I'm getting killed in RMSE.

[Mike G]

At the 4th power, you're in last place. At the 1/2 power, you're in first!

Here are our avg errors, your errors, and yours relative to avg.
On the left are teams that you guessed better than our avg -- 17 of 30 teams.
On the right are the 13 where you're currently looking worse than avg.

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tm  avg  GK5  diff      tm  avg  GK5 diff
GSW   5   1   -4.5      Phl  11  17   6.1
Okl   4   0   -3.9      Phx   5  10   5.3
Cle   8   5   -3.3      SAS   7  12   4.7
Mil   3   0   -3.0      Dal   4   8   3.5
Chi   3   1   -2.6      Hou   6   9   3.2
LAL  10   7   -2.4      Den   3   6   3.0
Uta   4   2   -2.4      Atl   3   5   1.4
Sac   2   1   -1.9      Por   8   9   1.2
Det   2   0   -1.8      LAC   4   5   0.7
NOP   4   3   -1.8      Mem  14  14   0.4
Brk   2   1   -1.6      Tor  13  13   0.3
Mia   2   0   -1.4      Cha   8   8   0.2
Was   2   1   -1.0      Orl   7   7   0.1
Ind  14  13   -0.7               
NYK   2   1   -0.4               
Bos   7   6   -0.2               
Min   2   2   -0.2               
totals       -33.1                   30.1

Not only are you 'winning' 57% of them, you're 13-8 in absolute differences >1.0; AND your total of Both columns is -3.0, which is .10 per team better than avg.
BUT your 3 biggest are all on the wrong side of the ledger. Squaring all, those 3 -- Phl, Phx, SA -- entirely wipe out the 23 'successes'.

Average is a tough standard here. Vegas is avg.

[Mike G]

Shuffling in the tight upper echelon and in the upper bottoms. And the whole spread is now just .95 top to bottom.

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
538_   5.35   6.83      Nath   5.67   6.97
emin   5.36   6.66      GK5.   5.67   7.49
sndi   5.39   6.52      AJBk   5.91   7.15
RyRi   5.45   6.71      ATCt   5.91   7.50
cali   5.45   6.78      Mike   5.96   7.38
sbs.   5.45   6.79      Josh   6.00   7.17
kmed   5.47   6.92      Crow   6.06   7.32
vegas  5.56   7.02      knar   6.12   7.54
lnqi   5.60   6.81      gold   6.13   7.31
shad   5.66   7.18      ncs.   6.30   7.87

Leaders within range of exponents:

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exp/root     lead
.01 to .55    GK5
.56 - 1.04    538
1.05 - 1.13  emin
1.14 - 5.6   sndi
5.7 +        emin

[eminence]

Woohoo! If the season could end today that'd make me feel pretty good