APBRmetrics

Crow wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:35 pm I half expected that.

I noticed him up there, but didn't know what I wanted to say about that yet.

I don't think of him as an MVP candidate based on last season but he is off to a nice start this season so far.

Lol, he's off to a great start this season (though I'd also put him below MVP level), Gobert likely still the team MVP to my eye, just giving you some guff. Quite looking forward to the Clips vs Jazz x2 this week.

Early of course but Harden and T Young with higher turnovers per game than anyone has ever had for a full season. A cost in the style of play.

Who guarded Harden without fouling a lot last season? Bulls, Clippers, Bucks, Twolves, Sixers, Blazers. Rockets' record in those games? 6-8.

What are the guidelines? I dunno, haven't studied tape. But I'd think teams might be able to do better on this.

Bucks and Sixers are only teams who gave up low ftas to him 2 years in a row. So some of the others might not have been lucky or not completely dialed in.

Warriors were really dialed in on this in 2017-18 regular season and playoffs. Ok in 2019 playoffs but not as good.

Kings 24th on pace? That's a product of several things gone wrong.



TWolves increased their overall Moreyball level and decreased their Moreyball allowed. Getting to rim is still just average and still too high on defense though. Improved rebounding too. How much is "real" vs. random?

Bulls about 40% above league average on at the rim shooting frequency and tops at that. Mavs at the bottom and more 25% below average. Mavs getting to line though, Bulls not. Put the two together and neither is that special or pressure / inside.

Lakers following the Bulls pattern here and repeating their tendencies of last season.

Bucks, huge frequency dropoffs from the ft line and at the rim. Forgot the recipe and / or defended well.

Raptors way up in rank on at the rim frequency compared to last season. From below average to near the top. Clippers go from a bit above average to a bit below.

Worst teams probably include Hornets and Grizzlies. Kings are the worst right now but probably rise out of it. Bulls and Cavs might fall into the final tier but aren't quite there at the moment.

Hornets have meh shot selection, good shot efficiency but bad offense overall, with terrible D. Griz have terrible shot selection & efficiency and bad D.

Nuggets with a bad shot distribution relative to Moreyball principles.

Jokic not shooting as much and not shooting as well from at the rim or 3 pt land.

Aron Baynes' line scores with the Suns so far:Last 2 years, his median Game Score has been around 4.0, and he already has 2 of 4 best in his career.
He's shooting .712 (12-26 from 3) with ORtg of 137.
He leads the 4-2 Suns in Win Shares and VORP. His 8.7 PF/100 trails Dwight, Jahlil, Plumlee, and MRobinson. The 2 games he DQ'd are the losses this year.

His 3 PT rate and fg% are both very high. How sustainable? What did he look like from 3 pt land in practice? Did Stevens and Ainge blow it? Did J Jones or other see it? Did Baynes just learn to do this? Projecting 3 pt performance onto bigs needs more analysis.

Magic with worst efg%, ts% and overall offense. Got to be one of the worst Moreyball profiles. Blame for coach, players, management, maybe analytics.

Orlando is shooting 28% from the arc and 46% inside it. Both are terrible, and it looks to be across the board with their primary shot takers.
They're actually last in FT/FGA as well as eFG%, so I don't know that redistribution of shots is the answer. They just need to make more of them.

Magic shot about 37% of their shots from mid-range compared to league average of 34%. Only made about 39% of them. The worst shots on average in basketball and by a lot. They could probably still benefit from moving shots from mid-range to Moreyball spots.

My pre-season comments were interesting to review. Hits and misses but I think more hits.

Heat with 8 guys averaging double figures on pts / gm (and most way above 10 pts) and 2 fairly close. Partially a product of missed games but still unusual and impressive.

Wizards above average on 3 factors, below on 5. Last season it was 4 & 4. Offensive efficiency ranking improved but rating is worse. Less slippage than others. Defensive rating a point better but rank barely changed. Not sure they get much credit for that when offensive efficiency has slipped broadly across league. Too early to say much about them.

More shots from Jokic means fewer shots from Barton, Grant, Beasley and M Morris.