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Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:18 pm
by Mike G
A day makes a difference.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
lisp 5.75 7.9
bbst 5.76 8.0
gold 5.80 7.8
cali 5.84 7.8
avg. 5.91 8.1
Crow 5.93 8.0
RyRi 5.95 8.3
trzu 6.17 7.9
shad 6.24 8.7
sndi 6.30 8.6
emin 6.43 9.9
.538 6.47 9.1
vegas 6.67 8.4
dtka 6.85 8.8
ncs. 6.88 8.8
KPel 6.90 9.1
Rd11 7.99 9.8
Mike 8.74 10.9
NOP rises as Mem sinks
Code: Select all
LAL 62 Mil 67
LAC 54 Tor 58
Den 53 Bos 56
Hou 53 Mia 51
Uta 51 Phl 51
Dal 50 Ind 46
OKC 49 Brk 38
NOP 39 Orl 37
Por 38 Was 29
Mem 38 Chi 29
SAS 37 Det 27
Sac 35 Cha 27
Phx 35 Atl 26
Min 26 NYK 26
GSW 19 Cle 23
UPDATE Feb. 27
New leader
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
gold 5.87 7.9
lisp 5.89 8.0
bbst 5.92 8.1
avg. 6.01 8.3
cali 6.05 7.9
Crow 6.05 8.1
RyRi 6.16 8.4
trzu 6.29 8.0
sndi 6.36 8.7
shad 6.38 8.8
emin 6.39 10.0
.538 6.62 9.3
vegas 6.81 8.6
KPel 6.91 9.2
ncs. 6.94 8.9
dtka 7.02 8.9
Rd11 8.07 9.9
Mike 8.92 11.0
Yesterday gold did not lead at exponent 1 or 2, but from 1.16 to 1.95
Code: Select all
exponents lead
0.01 - 0.10 ncs.
0.11 - 0.38 emin
0.39 - 0.80 bbst
0.81 - 0.89 lisp
0.90 - 2.19 gold
2.20 - 2.75 cali
2.76 - 7.2 trzu
7.3 - 10.6 cali
10.7 - - Mike
UPDATE Feb 28
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
lisp 5.93 8.1
gold 5.94 8.0
bbst 5.95 8.2
avg. 6.07 8.3
Crow 6.09 8.2
cali 6.11 8.0
RyRi 6.21 8.5
trzu 6.35 8.1
sndi 6.43 8.8
shad 6.44 8.9
emin 6.45 10.1
.538 6.65 9.4
vegas 6.87 8.7
KPel 6.98 9.3
ncs. 7.01 9.0
dtka 7.06 9.0
Rd11 8.15 9.9
Mike 8.98 11.0
UPDATE Feb. 29 -- gold surges.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
gold 5.78 7.9
lisp 5.93 8.0
avg. 5.95 8.3
bbst 5.95 8.1
cali 5.99 7.9
Crow 6.00 8.1
RyRi 6.17 8.4
trzu 6.18 8.0
sndi 6.27 8.7
emin 6.31 10.0
shad 6.35 8.8
.538 6.65 9.3
vegas 6.80 8.6
ncs. 6.93 9.0
KPel 6.95 9.2
dtka 7.00 8.9
Rd11 8.04 9.8
Mike 8.94 10.9
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:21 pm
by Mike G
Most improve overnight but also fall further from the lead.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
gold 5.69 7.8
avg. 5.93 8.1
lisp 5.94 7.9
cali 5.96 7.8
bbst 5.96 8.1
Crow 5.96 7.9
RyRi 6.07 8.3
trzu 6.11 7.9
sndi 6.22 8.6
emin 6.28 9.9
shad 6.29 8.6
.538 6.66 9.2
vegas 6.74 8.4
ncs. 6.90 8.9
KPel 6.94 9.1
dtka 6.95 8.8
Rd11 8.08 9.7
Mike 8.93 10.8
If I remove Crow's predictions from the contest,
avg. falls to 7th place (mae 6.08)
Removing my own numbers,
avg. nearly takes the lead (5.76)
UPDATE March 2
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
gold 5.78 7.9
Crow 5.98 8.1
avg. 6.05 8.3
lisp 6.06 8.0
bbst 6.07 8.2
cali 6.07 8.0
RyRi 6.19 8.4
trzu 6.21 8.0
sndi 6.29 8.7
emin 6.32 10.0
shad 6.42 8.8
.538 6.77 9.3
vegas 6.80 8.6
KPel 6.95 9.3
ncs. 6.99 9.0
dtka 7.06 8.9
Rd11 8.15 9.8
Mike 9.06 11.0
UPDATE Mar. 3
Everyone but Crow had an off night.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
Crow 5.81 8.0
gold 5.83 7.9
cali 6.09 8.0
avg. 6.10 8.3
lisp 6.17 8.1
bbst 6.18 8.2
RyRi 6.25 8.4
trzu 6.27 8.1
sndi 6.28 8.7
emin 6.41 10.0
shad 6.49 8.8
vegas 6.86 8.6
.538 6.87 9.3
KPel 7.02 9.2
ncs. 7.03 8.9
dtka 7.14 9.0
Rd11 8.13 9.8
Mike 9.09 11.0
Normally we all get better or worse, some more than others. Last night had a number of results that favored Crow vs most of us:
Wins by NYK, Mia, Ind
Loss by Atl, Cle, Hou
Crow gains .16 to .29 on everyone.
Code: Select all
e=.50
gold 4.62
Crow 4.80
emin 4.83
avg. 4.93
cali 5.06
e=1.1
Crow 6.02
gold 6.05
cali 6.28
avg. 6.32
lisp 6.36
e=1.85
gold 7.61
cali 7.69
Crow 7.70
lisp 7.78
trzu 7.83
e=2.5
cali 8.81
trzu 8.91
gold 8.93
lisp 9.00
bbst 9.16
e=10
Mike 16.6
cali 16.8
trzu 16.8
Rd11 17.2
lisp 17.8
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:11 am
by Crow
Woo.
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:48 pm
by Mike G
Dead heat.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
gold 5.85 7.8
Crow 5.85 8.0
cali 6.16 7.9
avg. 6.18 8.2
trzu 6.18 8.0
lisp 6.23 8.0
bbst 6.27 8.1
RyRi 6.28 8.4
sndi 6.31 8.6
emin 6.34 9.8
shad 6.45 8.7
vegas 6.79 8.5
.538 6.91 9.2
ncs. 7.11 8.9
KPel 7.14 9.2
dtka 7.16 8.9
Rd11 8.20 9.8
Mike 9.09 10.9
A .0003 lead for gold, which is nothing in the world of rounding.
Avg error of 6.69 is worst since Jan. 25. Separation from #2 to 3 is unprecedented.
Kings move into the race for #8
Code: Select all
LAL 62 Mil 68
LAC 56 Tor 56
Hou 53 Bos 56
Den 53 Mia 52
Uta 51 Phl 49
Dal 50 Ind 48
OKC 49 Orl 37
Mem 40 Brk 37
Por 38 Was 29
NOP 37 Chi 28
Sac 37 Cha 28
SAS 37 Det 27
Phx 32 Atl 26
Min 27 NYK 26
GSW 20 Cle 23
Chance of securing that last western slot:
Mem 51%
Por 15%
NOP 13%
Sac 11%
SAS 9%
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:15 pm
by Crow
MIA, IND and TOR doing very well are important to my competitive chances.
Other stuff with smaller differences too, of course.
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:01 pm
by Mike G
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
Crow 5.88 8.1
gold 5.91 7.9
cali 6.20 8.0
avg. 6.21 8.3
lisp 6.24 8.1
trzu 6.24 8.0
bbst 6.27 8.2
RyRi 6.28 8.4
sndi 6.39 8.6
emin 6.41 9.9
shad 6.50 8.8
vegas 6.84 8.5
.538 6.93 9.3
dtka 7.17 8.9
ncs. 7.19 9.0
KPel 7.24 9.3
Rd11 8.25 9.8
Mike 9.14 11.0
Avg error of 6.74 is now worst since opening day of the b-r.com forecast, Nov. 14
Ten of y'all have at one time or another had a projected error better than the current leading number.
UPDATE Mar. 9
Crow pulls ahead of an ever worsening field.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
Crow 6.01 8.3
gold 6.21 8.1
cali 6.31 8.1
avg. 6.32 8.4
lisp 6.41 8.3
bbst 6.50 8.3
trzu 6.51 8.3
emin 6.58 9.9
sndi 6.62 8.7
RyRi 6.62 8.6
shad 6.65 8.9
.538 7.13 9.4
vegas 7.20 8.8
ncs. 7.26 9.0
KPel 7.26 9.3
dtka 7.35 9.0
Rd11 8.09 9.8
Mike 9.22 11.0
Worst absolute error of the season for bbst, dtka, 538, Vegas, and the whole field (6.90)
(I was worse yesterday.)
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:36 am
by Crow
Good weekend. Tonight was probably alright.
Still could be volatile. Rest might have some impact. Tanking might in a few cases.
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:53 pm
by Mike G
This may or may not be the final regular-season "projection" from b-r.com
For some reason, their projections add up to just 80 games (W+L) for most teams, but 81 or 79 for a few.
Extrapolating all to 82 G, we get this:
Code: Select all
62.8 LAL 65.8 Mil
56.3 LAC 57.5 Tor
52.8 Den 54.9 Bos
51.4 Uta 50.6 Mia
51.0 Hou 49.3 Phl
50.1 OKC 48.6 Ind
49.1 Dal 38.4 Orl
39.2 Mem 38.4 Brk
38.6 NOP 29.8 Was
36.7 Por 28.6 Cha
36.3 Sac 27.8 Chi
36.1 SAS 26.5 NYK
33.4 Phx 25.9 Det
25.9 Min 24.9 Atl
19.8 GSW 23.6 Cle
And relative to these:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
Crow 5.84 8.1
gold 6.08 8.0
cali 6.11 8.0
avg. 6.14 8.3
lisp 6.24 8.1
bbst 6.28 8.2
RyRi 6.41 8.5
emin 6.46 9.9
sndi 6.47 8.6
trzu 6.50 8.2
shad 6.53 8.8
.538 6.99 9.3
vegas 7.03 8.7
ncs. 7.11 8.9
KPel 7.12 9.2
dtka 7.20 8.9
Rd11 7.98 9.7
Mike 9.13 10.9
This would be Crow's largest margin since Feb. 14
Crow leads at exponent up to 1.56, Gold from 1.57 to 1.96, and cali above 1.96
And IF there are no more regular season games, the 63 to 67 games' Win% can all be extrapolated to 82, with these results:
Code: Select all
63.8 LAL 66.9 Mil
56.4 LAC 58.9 Tor
54.2 Den 55.1 Bos
52.5 Uta 51.7 Mia
51.3 Hou 49.2 Ind
51.3 OKC 49.2 Phl
49.0 Dal 38.4 Brk
40.4 Mem 37.8 Orl
36.0 Por 30.8 Was
35.9 NOP 29.0 Cha
35.9 Sac 27.8 Chi
35.1 SAS 26.1 NYK
32.8 Phx 24.8 Det
24.3 Min 24.5 Atl
18.9 GSW 24.0 Cle
There's actually a clearer distinction between who is in or out of the playoffs in the West.
Not sure of tiebreaking procedure for the 5 and 6 seeds in either conference.
IF these are indeed the final standings, then --
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
Crow 6.15 8.64
emin 6.75 10.32
gold 6.75 8.64
cali 6.78 8.63
avg. 6.80 8.90
lisp 6.87 8.78
bbst 6.89 8.79
RyRi 7.01 9.09
trzu 7.06 8.80
sndi 7.10 9.21
shad 7.12 9.43
vegas 7.45 9.26
.538 7.62 9.92
KPel 7.63 9.81
ncs. 7.73 9.50
dtka 7.75 9.59
Rd11 8.61 10.29
Mike 9.84 11.61
Crow in a rout: leads at exponent below 1.998, caliban above that.
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Aug 12, 2020 12:48 pm
by Mike G
Well, nobody reminded me to get back on this project, and I had pretty much written off the rest of the season. But here we are again, the bubble hasn't burst as yet, and the re-season is winding down.
Basketball-Reference.com has gone commercial, so many search features are unavailable now. Yet they still have the Playoff Probabilities Report.
Lottery teams "project" to the (64 to 67 G) records they had as of mid March. "Bubble" teams project to anywhere between 71 and 75 games. I've extrapolated their projected (or current) Win% onto 82 games for this exercise.
While it looks as if the sum of all wins and losses should end up at 1059 of each, the avg Win% is a bit under .500, and the 82G projection averages 40.58 wins.
In our contest, everyone has improved with the bubble games, and Crow's lead is cut in half.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
Crow 5.99 8.10
cali 6.31 8.03
lisp 6.36 8.35
bbst 6.42 8.40
gold 6.45 8.29
avg. 6.47 8.45
RyRi 6.57 8.68
emin 6.66 10.07
shad 6.78 8.94
sndi 6.85 8.95
trzu 6.88 8.39
KPel 6.93 9.27
vegas 7.06 8.72
.538 7.09 9.59
ncs. 7.19 9.07
dtka 7.51 9.29
Rd11 8.05 9.83
Mike 9.15 11.02
I've not looked into what 'play-in' means, or whether b-r.com is figuring that into their projections. Assume they will be counted as 'regular season' games rather than playoff??
Right now 8 east teams and 7 west teams have a 100% chance of making the playoffs. Then we have:
.546 Por
.179 Mem
.153 Phx
.122 SA
Not sure why Grizz are given the edge over the Suns. Same 33-39 record, Phx with 1.4 better SRS
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:15 pm
by Crow
I considered it a win at the interruption.
The score after the bubble is a bit affected by all the resting, but let's see what it shows.
Thanks for the reporting.
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:34 am
by Mike G
b-r.com has done a strange thing and projected an additional 7 game results onto all bubble teams but the Lakers and the 4 also-rans. It shouldn't matter, since I'm already scaling everyone up to 82.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
Crow 6.07 8.11
cali 6.27 8.01
lisp 6.29 8.38
gold 6.37 8.28
avg. 6.37 8.39
bbst 6.44 8.36
emin 6.63 10.04
RyRi 6.64 8.71
sndi 6.75 8.87
trzu 6.85 8.42
shad 6.85 8.92
KPel 6.87 9.16
ncs. 7.01 8.91
.538 7.04 9.56
vegas 7.19 8.76
dtka 7.43 9.30
Rd11 7.78 9.59
Mike 9.12 10.91
Errors are relative to these projections :
Code: Select all
LAL 60.1 Mil 62.9
LAC 54.8 Tor 60.1
Den 50.7 Bos 54.2
Hou 49.4 Ind 49.5
Uta 49.3 Mia 49.0
OKC 49.1 Phl 47.0
Dal 46.2 Brk 38.6
Por 38.8 Orl 35.5
Mem 38.2 Cha 29.0
Phx 38.2 Was 28.5
SAS 37.0 Chi 27.8
Sac 35.3 NYK 26.1
NOP 34.2 Det 24.8
Min 24.3 Atl 24.5
GSW 18.9 Cle 24.0
This is still a bit screwy, since 30 teams now 'average' just 40.2
extrapolated Wins.