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Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2026 4:13 pm
by Crow
Last season and this season will be least precise / highest average error for winner in last 10 years. Didn't immediately find threads from earlier years.
This season leader currently better than season, but leader error fell about a point since Jan. 15.
Did projections miss more in top third, middle, bottom or all? East / west? More error in minutes distribution or impact estimates for those who went to player level? Analysis could be done.
Bet MGM was minimizing extreme projections well at last check.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2026 6:41 pm
by Mike G
quasi-monthly update on over- and under-achieving teams relative to our predictions avg.
Code: Select all
over tm avgA proj over tm avgA proj
18.2 SAS 42.5 60.7 -21.5 Ind 39.3 17.8
15.8 Det 42.8 58.6 -18.5 Dal 45.6 27.1
13.2 Cha 29.9 43.1 -17.3 Sac 38.2 20.9
11.5 Phx 33.9 45.4 -13.7 Mem 42.8 29.1
11.1 Bos 43.1 54.2 -8.6 Mil 41.2 32.6
9.8 Tor 36.8 46.6 -8.3 LAC 49.3 41.0
7.6 LAL 44.0 51.6 -8.1 GSW 48.3 40.2
7.6 Mia 37.3 44.9 -4.1 Brk 25.7 21.6
6.4 Phl 37.2 43.6 -3.9 NOP 32.8 28.9
4.6 NYK 48.3 52.9 -3.8 Orl 48.9 45.1
4.1 Por 36.1 40.2 -2.9 Chi 35.7 32.8
3.0 Min 46.7 49.7 -2.2 Cle 53.0 50.8
1.3 OKC 62.7 64.0 -1.7 Was 20.5 18.8
0.8 Atl 43.4 44.2 -1.1 Den 50.6 49.5
0.4 Uta 24.0 24.4 0.0 Hou 49.7 49.7
Are many of the Unders (R) apt to right their ships and get closer to expectations? If they don't, it's to the benefit of the Overs, and we can expect the overall errors to increase.
This morning, the overall avg MAE topped 8.0. It was below 7.0 as recently as Feb. 1
Last year it was a week later when we hit 8.0, en route to 8.36 by season's end.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2026 6:49 pm
by Crow
6 +8 or greater overs, 7 -8 or greater unders. Balance.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2026 11:50 pm
by Crow
Looks like BPM-W will be the public metrics winner this time.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2026 2:42 pm
by Mike G
In the last 6 days, profound separation between the top 2 and most of the rest.
Code: Select all
diff date: 3/21 3/27
-.05 bmgm 7.19 7.14
-.03 Ebet 7.27 7.24
.26 bpmW 7.37 7.64
.11 EExp 7.53 7.63
.27 Walr 7.70 7.97
.20 avgA 7.73 7.93
.16 Mgoo 7.74 7.90
.27 knar 7.76 8.03
.24 DRKO 7.79 8.03
.15 dtka 7.89 8.04
.13 WShr 8.07 8.20
.30 eWin 8.09 8.38
.11 perW 8.09 8.20
-.08 medi 8.44 8.36
.17 Crow 8.60 8.76
.10 25pr 8.76 8.87
.04 KPel 8.88 8.91
-.02 DQin 9.67 9.65
.13 avg 8.03 8.16
eWins "leads" in this flight from respectability. Just bad days and
meh days.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2026 6:45 pm
by Crow
2 betting lines doing best in worst general contest in 10 years.
What did they do that others didn't as well? More regression to mean? Better minutes distribution? Better handling of tanking and / or star resting?
Their marks team by team vs field should be reviewed. Your March 20 post with the betting lines added.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2026 11:05 pm
by Crow
EBET projected 1 team 60+, 6 50+, 4 under 30.
Current BRef projection is 2 / 6 / 8
EBET underestimated the number of low win teams.
By these win levels, I was 1 / 7 / 4.
EBET had 10 from 35-45 wins. I had 11. BRef projection is for 7.
EBET had 5 from 30-34 wins. I had 2. BRef projection is for 2.
EBET had 6 from 46-50 wins. I had 5. BRef projection is for just 6.
Both EBET and I had too much in very middle and too few in very bottom. EBET also had too many in 2nd lowest tier. But I guess it was closer on the team by team detail.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2026 12:42 am
by Mike G
From Feb. 28:
Both Ebet and bmgm correctly called the dropout situation for Brk, Chi, Dal, Mem, Sac, and Uta; incorrect on Cha and Phx.
They went high on Det, NYK, Phl, Tor, Hou, Min; but also Atl, Cle, and (unresolved) Den....
Since then, Atl is 10-1, Cle 8-4, Den 9-5; Phx 6-7
AvgA has gone from .50 off the lead, to .80 out.
Those who foresaw closer East/West balance have mostly fared better than those who predicted more disparity.
Code: Select all
who W/E MAE
EExp 1.05 7.63
DRKO 1.06 8.03
bmgm 1.06 7.14
Ebet 1.07 7.24
Walr 1.08 7.97
eWin 1.09 8.38
Mgoo 1.10 7.90
knar 1.10 8.03
perW 1.10 8.20
Crow 1.10 8.76
KPel 1.10 8.91
WShr 1.11 8.20
medi 1.12 8.36
dtka 1.12 8.04
bpmW 1.14 7.64
DQin 1.21 9.65
Correlation here is .72
The avg prediction of W 43-39 E == 1.10 W/E
Disparity extremists >1.10 avg 8.38 MAE vs 7.73 for those <1.10
There's insignificant (.15) correlation between Avg Deviation and errors.
UPDATE Mar. 31
On Mar. 20, everyone had their worst error of the season, to date. Since then, all but one are even worse.
Code: Select all
diff entry 3/20 3/31
.05 bmgm 7.16 7.21
.02 Ebet 7.23 7.25
.30 bpmW 7.38 7.68
.17 EExp 7.51 7.68
.36 Mgoo 7.72 8.08
.41 Walr 7.68 8.09
.38 avgA 7.70 8.09
.33 DRKO 7.80 8.12
.37 dtka 7.81 8.18
.49 knar 7.71 8.20
.23 WShr 8.05 8.29
.32 perW 8.06 8.38
.01 medi 8.43 8.45
.51 eWin 8.03 8.55
.19 Crow 8.61 8.80
.21 25pr 8.72 8.94
.21 KPel 8.83 9.04
-.11 DQin 9.65 9.54
.24 avg 7.75 7.99
Top-to-bottom difference is lowest in 6 weeks.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Apr 02, 2026 1:52 pm
by Mike G
All but the top and bottom with worst errors, per usual.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 7.21 9.12 .53 WShr 8.41 10.93 .32
Ebet 7.22 9.29 .51 medi 8.42 10.79 .38
EExp 7.75 9.69 .46 perW 8.46 10.82 .33
bpmW 7.80 9.86 .44 eWin 8.61 10.50 .37
DRKO 8.18 9.49 .48
Mgoo 8.20 10.18 .41 Crow 8.84 10.61 .38
avgA 8.21 10.09 .41 25pr 9.03 11.43 .27
Walr 8.23 9.87 .44 KPel 9.07 11.38 .30
knar 8.28 9.73 .46
dtka 8.30 10.03 .42 DQin 9.56 12.45 .24
Compare to Jan. 27:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bpmW 6.22 7.71 .52 Ebet 6.82 7.94 .54
knar 6.34 7.67 .51 dtka 6.84 8.15 .46
Walr 6.40 7.86 .50 25pr 6.88 8.99 .37
avgA 6.41 7.97 .49 Crow 6.90 8.68 .44
DRKO 6.42 7.59 .52 eWin 6.95 8.51 .42
WShr 6.48 8.48 .43 medi 7.37 8.94 .45
Mgoo 6.50 8.21 .46 perW 7.38 9.15 .35
bmgm 6.56 7.74 .56 KPel 7.63 9.21 .39
EExp 6.76 8.03 .48 DQin 8.18 10.24 .33
While current co-leaders were very middle-of-the-pack in MAE 10 weeks ago, their RMSE were top-5; and r^2 were distinctly 1 and 2. This suggests some predictive value to these other numbers, yes?
Leaders at various exponents/roots:
Code: Select all
exponents lead
.01 - .97 Ebet
.98 - 4.3 bmgm
4.3 - 6.0 DRKO
6.1 - >>> bmgm
UPDATE April 7 -- new leader
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
Ebet 7.24 9.40 .51 knar 8.46 9.86 .46
bmgm 7.25 9.23 .53 medi 8.54 10.94 .37
EExp 7.88 9.85 .46 perW 8.58 10.91 .34
bpmW 7.90 10.01 .44 WShr 8.64 11.10 .32
DRKO 8.23 9.53 .49 eWin 8.79 10.61 .37
Walr 8.30 10.00 .44 Crow 8.88 10.71 .38
Mgoo 8.32 10.28 .41 KPel 9.17 11.52 .30
avgA 8.33 10.23 .42 25pr 9.26 11.60 .27
dtka 8.42 10.21 .42 DQin 9.64 12.60 .24
bmgm led continuously since Feb. 23 and still leads at exponent 1.03 < e < 2.90. DARKO owns the high end and Ebet the low.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2026 3:23 pm
by Mike G
Ebet had 3 days on top.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 7.22 9.25 .54 knar 8.53 9.92 .47
Ebet 7.24 9.42 .52 medi 8.60 10.99 .38
bpmW 7.94 10.06 .45 perW 8.63 10.97 .35
EExp 7.97 9.93 .46 WShr 8.74 11.18 .33
DRKO 8.23 9.57 .50 eWin 8.86 10.69 .38
Walr 8.31 10.05 .45 Crow 8.87 10.71 .39
avgA 8.37 10.28 .42 KPel 9.16 11.57 .31
Mgoo 8.39 10.34 .42 25pr 9.36 11.69 .27
dtka 8.46 10.29 .42 DQin 9.56 12.66 .24
Just 3 weeks ago, 12 others were within 1.00 of the lead; now there are 3.
Last 4 Fridays' mean absolute errors; next to the date are separation between 2nd and 3rd:
Code: Select all
3/20 .15 3/27 .40 4/03 .53 4/10 .70
bmgm 7.16 bmgm 7.14 bmgm 7.26 bmgm 7.22
Ebet 7.23 Ebet 7.24 Ebet 7.27 Ebet 7.24
bpmW 7.38
EExp 7.51
Walr 7.68 EExp 7.63 EExp 7.80
avgA 7.70 bpmW 7.64 bpmW 7.83 bpmW 7.94
knar 7.71 EExp 7.97
Mgoo 7.72 Mgoo 7.90
DRKO 7.80 avgA 7.93 DRKO 8.23 DRKO 8.23
dtka 7.81 Walr 7.97 Mgoo 8.25
. DRKO 8.03 Walr 8.26
eWin 8.03 knar 8.03 avgA 8.26
WShr 8.05 dtka 8.04
perW 8.06
Blank lines represent gap of .20+
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2026 12:52 pm
by Mike G
Final.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 7.39 9.41 .53 dtka 8.70 10.47 .41
Ebet 7.40 9.58 .51 knar 8.74 10.15 .45
EExp 8.16 10.07 .45 perW 8.76 11.09 .34
bpmW 8.23 10.24 .43 WShr 8.98 11.35 .31
DRKO 8.48 9.75 .49 eWin 9.07 10.84 .37
medi 8.58 11.13 .37 Crow 9.13 10.92 .38
Mgoo 8.60 10.50 .41 KPel 9.34 11.72 .30
avgA 8.61 10.46 .41 25pr 9.54 11.84 .26
Walr 8.64 10.27 .43 DQin 9.93 12.86 .23
In the last 12 days, medi surged from 13th to 6th and did Not end up with their worst MAE of the season.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2026 4:51 pm
by Crow
MGoo up a bit, Walrus down some. BPM relatively good.
My worst ever or close to it. My very aggressive low on Heat cost almost 0.5 on average error but rest wasn't that good either.
Off by one on Thunder. BRef low estimate early on had to be undone.("Thunder projected at 54 wins. Uh huh.")
They got to do that.
I am going to look at how much different my revised projections from mid-November did, fwiw. With that set, my error on Heat shrunk to just 2 wins.
Vegas lines chosen have varied but.
should still look at their relative performance over time. Probably several wins but also some mid-pack. What is the trend?
Thanks for the tracking.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2026 6:30 pm
by Crow
My revised projections on page 6 from November 16 had an average error of 5.4. I used the addition of early information pretty well.
Got within 3 wins on 11 teams. 3 direct hits, 4 just 1 off.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2026 11:10 am
by Mike G
The b-r.com projections I posted on Nov. 22, 15-17 games in, would avg 4.98 error from final wins.
Cha, Bos, SAS, LAC all ended up 10-12 wins better than that projection, Chi and Mia 10-11 worse.
Nov. 12 projections would be off by 5.86 MAE -- Chi too high by 16 -- after 10-12 games.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2026 7:13 pm
by Crow
So in between those 2 dates, BRef and my revised projections were probably about equal on average error. Likely dIfferent on details.
Would be interesting to track average error for BRef model from other dates too. Even earlier, sometime in December and / or January, All-Star break... Was the trend consistently toward more predictive or not? Would more or less regressed then have done better?
I might check how Couchside and CraftedNBA projections from that time "did" compared to final results, later.