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Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 4:26 pm
by Mike G
At 1/3 of the season, with Pythagorean irrespective of current wins.
Code: Select all
Current wins + pythagorean W%
4.72 JohnH 6.24 zRA
5.05 Crow 6.25 ez2
5.32 J.E. 6.42 ezPM
5.43 MikeG 6.55 DSMok1
5.67 Vegas 6.59 KevinP
5.80 dis 6.73 11Pyth
Pythagorean only
4.77 JohnH 6.00 zRA
5.07 Crow 6.20 ez2
5.30 J.E. 6.38 ezPM
5.40 MikeG 6.47 11Pyth
5.80 dis 6.57 DSMok1
5.86 Vegas 6.72 KevinP
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2012 1:13 pm
by Mike G
Mike G wrote:J.E. wrote:
... one more argument for the peak basketball age being later than 26
... doesn't mean they became "better" after 28, but that their priorities changed.
On the other hand, I just noticed that b-r.com now lists in their "Miscellaneous Statistics" the minutes-weighted Age of each team.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... _2012.html
The NBA average minute is being played by a 26.8 yr old.
Of 12 teams older than that, 11 have winning records (Phx, at 28.9, is 8-14), and 10 have positive SRS (Orl is -1.1)
Of 11 teams with SRS > 3, only 2 are younger than avg -- Philly and OKC.
Both teams play around 25 y.o.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2012 8:31 pm
by Crow
Thanks for mentioning the B-R minutes weighted age data. That is handy to have available.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 12:22 am
by Crow
Orlando the worst FT% team in 33 years and just outside the bottom 10 of all-time. Near bottom third or in it on at the rim shots and inside FG%. 2nd lowest on mid-range attempts but the worst at them. The offense is mainly just 3 point shooting.
At lineup level the Magic's starting lineup is one of the worst performing for lineups used 150+ minutes on raw and adjusted +/-. There are a number of next most used lineups doing terrific. Make a change? Nelson's injury forced one and that may help them.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2012 12:20 pm
by Mike G
The avg error is down to 5.56
Code: Select all
4.48 JohnH 5.89 ez2
4.75 Crow 5.98 zRA
5.02 J.E. 6.10 KevinP
5.25 MikeG 6.12 ezPM
5.49 dis 6.41 DSMok1
5.68 Vegas 6.58 11Pyth
There are 7 teams doing better than any of us guessed, and 9 which are doing worse.
This leaves 14 teams that are within the range of our predictions.
Ranked by avg error (either too high or too low) -
Code: Select all
All predicted too high All predicted too low
tm pyth+ closest Avg tm pyth+ closest b Avg
Cha 8.9 4 JH 12.1 Phi 49.4 10 JE 13.5
Det 14.4 7 ezPM 9.6 Atl 42.9 6 ezPM 8.9
Was 12.5 4 ezPM 8.4 Min 34.4 1 KP 8.4
NOH 17.3 4 MG 7.9 Uta 35.0 5 MG,KP 7.9
NYK 28.8 4 ezPM 7.9 Ind 41.3 3 MG 7.0
Sac 17.3 3 JE 7.7 Por 42.3 3 Crow 5.1
NJN 20.0 2 dis 5.3 Hou 35.3 1 JE,Crow 3.6
Orl 36.8 1 Crow 3.7
Mil 29.1 1 MG 2.9
EDIT: This has been corrected since originally posted.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 2:36 pm
by Mike G
After a 10-game slate, avg error down to 5.45
Code: Select all
4.52 JohnH 5.80 KevinP
4.74 Crow 5.92 ezPM
4.95 J.E. 5.94 ez2
4.97 MikeG 6.14 zRA
5.31 dis 6.22 DSMok1
5.44 Vegas 6.40 11Pyth
Season at 37% (of 990 games).
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2012 4:53 pm
by Mike G
Season at 39%, avg error down to 5.26 per participant, for both Pythagorean wins projections and for current wins + Pyth% of remaining games.
Code: Select all
Current wins + Pythagorean remainder
4.43 JohnH 5.69 ez2
4.60 Crow 5.71 KevinP
4.74 MikeG 5.73 ezPM
4.82 J.E. 5.88 zRA
5.17 dis 6.07 DSMok1
5.29 Vegas 6.13 11Pyth
Pythagorean only
4.45 JohnH 5.57 zRA
4.58 MikeG 5.60 ez2
4.68 Crow 5.77 ezPM
4.73 J.E. 5.81 KevinP
5.24 dis 5.85 11Pyth
5.54 Vegas 5.99 DSMok1
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 5:16 am
by Crow
Lots of contestants doing well this season.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 9:49 pm
by Mike G
Just 4 games last night, and things got interesting.
Code: Select all
Current wins + Pyth% * remaining Pythagorean% * 66
4.46 JohnH 5.61 ez2 4.49 MikeG 5.59 zRA
4.59 Crow 5.65 ezPM 4.53 JohnH 5.60 ez2
4.62 MikeG 5.68 KevinP 4.71 Crow 5.77 ezPM
4.81 J.E. 5.80 zRA 4.81 J.E. 5.80 KevinP
5.06 dis 5.93 DSMok1 5.20 dis 5.89 11Pyth
5.25 Vegas 6.12 11Pyth 5.56 Vegas 5.92 DSMok1
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 2:50 am
by Crow
Given you have standings by the above two methods, it might be interesting to see the standings based on a straight projection of actual wins to date as well.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:22 pm
by Mike G
With season at 41.7%, avg error is 4.89
Code: Select all
Current + Pyth% of remaining Pythagorean % of 66 games
4.20 Crow 5.19 ezPM 4.38 Crow 5.32 Vegas
4.27 JohnH 5.28 ez2 4.39 MikeG 5.41 KevinP
4.32 MikeG 5.38 KevinP 4.42 JohnH 5.51 zRA
4.42 J.E. 5.56 DSMok1 4.49 J.E. 5.53 ezPM
4.57 dis 5.62 zRA 4.72 dis 5.62 DSMok1
4.96 Vegas 5.88 11Pyth 5.30 ez2 5.86 11Pyth
The worst of our guesses, listing just the worst for any team:
Code: Select all
err tm prediction proj.
20 Cha KP 28 8
15 NOH KP 31 16
15 Phl MG 33 48
11 Det DSM 28 17
11 LAL Vegas 48 37
11 Min ezPM,JE 22 33
11 NJN KP 29 18
10 Atl KP 31 41
10 Chi DSM 41 51
10 Sac MG 29 20
While Kevin P seems to dominate the worst predictions, he's also got the best guess (or virtual tie) on Mem, Mia, Min, Phx, and Uta.
Crow has only one worst guess: picking Mem to win 40, and they're headed for 33-34.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:55 pm
by Mike G
With .445 of season gone, avg absolute error is 4.51; pyth is 4.56
Code: Select all
Current + Pyth% remaining games Pythagorean% of 66 games
3.80 JohnH 4.86 ez2 3.94 J.E. 4.73 ez2
3.91 MikeG 4.88 ezPM 3.98 JohnH 5.03 zRA
3.98 Crow 5.18 DSMok1 4.02 MikeG 5.05 KevinP
4.02 J.E. 5.18 KevinP 4.06 Crow 5.07 ezPM
4.16 dis 5.22 zRA 4.11 dis 5.21 DSMok1
4.44 Vegas 5.52 11Pyth 4.72 Vegas 5.58 11Pyth
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 2:56 pm
by Mike G
Season is at 50.3%, and teams are still sliding toward their expectations, in general.
Code: Select all
Current wins + Pythagorean Pythagorean only
3.77 MikeG 4.54 ez2 3.65 Crow 4.49 Vegas
3.79 JohnH 4.67 ezPM 3.85 dis 4.63 KevinP
3.81 Crow 4.89 KevinP 3.97 JohnH 4.78 zRA
3.95 dis 4.91 DSMok1 4.00 J.E. 4.83 ezPM
4.03 J.E. 5.06 zRA 4.03 MikeG 5.02 DSMok1
4.34 Vegas 5.50 11Pyth 4.44 ez2 5.63 11Pyth
If you're higher in the left columns than in the right, then you've been lucky (or you're influencing games).
Avg error now 4.34 in Pyth+
The most shocking team is Cha, headed for 9 wins. Hollinger is closest at 13. On avg, we are off by 12.4
The only other team with such a large best-guess error is Hou, headed for 38. Crow and JE guessed 34.
Philly's projection (41) is now within 3 of JE's guess.
The sinking Celts (33) are 3 below KP's bottom guess.
The recovering Pacers (41) are 3 better than my high guess. I also had lowest hopes for Mil, and they're 3 wins below that (27).
Nets (19) look 3 wins worse than dis guessed, and Okl (48) looks 3 wins better than any but Vegas.
With an 0-5 night, the East is now less than .400 vs the West, for what it's worth.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 8:17 pm
by Mike G
At .543 of the season's schedule:
Code: Select all
Current W + Pyth% of remainder Pythagorean W% X 66
3.76 JohnH 4.52 ez2 3.49 Crow 4.44 ez2
3.80 Crow 4.75 ezPM 3.74 JohnH 4.44 KevinP
3.99 MikeG 4.75 DSMok1 3.85 J.E. 4.74 zRA
4.00 dis 4.79 KevinP 3.91 dis 4.78 DSMok1
4.10 J.E. 4.98 zRA 3.98 MikeG 4.88 ezPM
4.30 Vegas 5.36 11Pyth 4.33 Vegas 5.53 11Pyth
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2012 5:21 pm
by Crow
If Hollinger beats me it could be considered to come from my not expecting Charlotte and New Orleans to be as awful as he did. My low expectation of Orlando might figure into it as well or make the ultimate difference.
Of course several others are still close enough to beat either of us.