Sam Hinkie gone :(

[Mike G]

From Kevin Pelton's article today on Kawhi Leonard's MVP case: http://insider.espn.com/nba/insider/sto ... p-case-nba ($ ESPN Insider)

"... with and without Leonard. His on-court defensive rating would be 6.7 points per 100 possessions better if opponents shot as poorly on 3s with him on the court as they do with him on the bench (28.1 percent).
... Odds are this is a fluke and one that explains a large percentage of Leonard's decline from a plus-3.9 defensive RPM in 2015-16 (and plus-4.6 in 2014-15) to plus-0.8 this season."

Kawhi's DRPM dropped 3 points from last year. As much as 6.7 could be due to that garbage time 3pt% anomaly.

If it's more than 3, it's not a decline but an improvement.

I rather suspect it's analagous to LeBron's alleged decline and the burgeoning evidence that he becomes the best player in the biggest games. He can basically outplay anyone on the court when he really wants to. He's where Jordan was, and Russell.

Kawhi may take some time off from his defensive duties. Players gain advantage where they can. Kawhi is ranked #9 in RPM. He's 7th in offensive RPM.
I don't care to divide player effectiveness into offense and defense. So I don't really care if Kawhi's ORPM is too high or his DRPM is too low. He's a clear top 10 player.
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM

[Crow]

It is debatable whether you can reasonably replace Leonard's actual on the court 3 point defense experience with anything but it might be better to replace it with league average or Leonard's career average on the court ir a combination. Spurs without Leonard is without Leonard and could also be affected by random chance or be the one more affected by random chance. We don't know chance's inoact but do know the without sample is half the size and is more likely skewed by chance than Leonard's data. Did Kevin look at last year for without Leonard and even older years for both ? I will later.