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Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2012 5:23 pm
by EvanZ
I should try plugging in my A4PM rating into this.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2012 7:47 pm
by Crow
Might be worth a look.
I know you proposed on blend of EZPM and RAPM in this contest but it might be worth looking back instead of ahead to find what the optimal blend of those 2 would have been this season so far, or what an optimal blend of various forms of RAPM (prior-informed, not, multi-year, A4PM) would be.
I know Alex at SportsSkeptic looked at blend performances for past seasons.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2012 1:47 pm
by Mike G
Evan's blend of ezPM and RAPM is listed as ez2, and it's fared the best of his 3 entries.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Fri Mar 09, 2012 12:04 am
by Mike G
Season at 59%
Code: Select all
Current W + Pyth% remaining Pythagorean% x 66
3.85 Crow 4.59 ez2 3.61 Crow 4.43 KevinP
3.91 JohnH 4.75 ezPM 3.77 JohnH 4.57 ez2
4.12 MikeG 4.77 KevinP 3.98 dis 4.64 DSMok1
4.13 dis 4.79 DSMok1 4.04 J.E. 4.72 zRA
4.18 J.E. 4.94 zRA 4.06 MikeG 4.94 ezPM
4.42 Vegas 5.59 11Pyth 4.40 Vegas 5.51 11Pyth
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Fri Mar 09, 2012 2:44 am
by Crow
Does pyth just suck relatively for this year for this use or is it not so good in general? Has anyone check other seasons?
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Fri Mar 09, 2012 11:07 am
by Mike G
11Pyth is the avg team expected wins this year, minus last year's.
In other words, it's the avg error from just predicting every team to repeat last year's performance (in point differential).
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Sat Mar 10, 2012 1:03 am
by Crow
Ok, thanks for the clarification. I didn't check or think that thru.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Thu Mar 22, 2012 9:35 pm
by Jeff Fogle
Any update on these recently? I got in the habit of checking in on them every few days, and I'm having withdrawals (lol). Thanks in advance if Mike G. gets a chance to post an update...
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Thu Mar 22, 2012 9:44 pm
by Mike G
Wow, I just keep putting it off
one more day. Lots of changes:
Code: Select all
3.56 JohnH 4.23 ezPM
3.63 Crow 4.29 DSMok1
3.74 dis 4.33 Vegas
3.75 MikeG 4.45 zRA
3.92 ez2 4.51 KevinP
3.94 J.E. 5.01 11Pyth
That's avg error from current wins plus pythagorean remaining games.
Here's the pure pythag% X 66
Code: Select all
3.43 Crow 4.02 KevinP
3.48 dis 4.10 zRA
3.61 MikeG 4.12 DSMok1
3.62 JohnH 4.22 Vegas
3.71 J.E. 4.46 ezPM
3.89 ez2 5.14 11Pyth
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Sat Mar 24, 2012 11:58 pm
by Crow
Could be a photofinish, affected by in some or many cases by "lower meaning" late season games and the posture of certain teams towards those games.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 1:22 pm
by Mike G
At 74% of the season.
Code: Select all
Pythagorean% X 66 avg error Current wins + pyth% remaining
3.62 dis 4.03 KevinP 3.87 MikeG 4.31 ezPM
3.62 Crow 4.17 DSMok1 3.92 JohnH 4.51 DSMok1
3.65 MikeG 4.37 Vegas 3.97 Crow 4.63 KevinP
3.78 J.E. 4.42 ezPM 4.01 dis 4.65 Vegas
3.79 JohnH 4.43 zRA 4.16 ez2 4.85 zRA
3.98 ez2 5.23 11Pyth 4.18 J.E. 5.09 11Pyth
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:24 pm
by xkonk
Just an off year for Vegas, or are you all quitting your jobs and gambling full-time?
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Thu Mar 29, 2012 12:33 am
by EvanZ
xkonk wrote:Just an off year for Vegas, or are you all quitting your jobs and gambling full-time?
Good idea.
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Thu Apr 05, 2012 6:31 pm
by Mike G
Season 81% completed.
Code: Select all
Current wins + Pyth% remaining Pythagorean% X 66
3.43 Crow 4.04 DSMok1 3.11 Crow 3.83 ez2
3.56 JohnH 4.10 ezPM 3.34 dis 3.87 KevinP
3.79 J.E. 4.15 Vegas 3.38 JohnH 4.07 Vegas
3.87 dis 4.37 KevinP 3.39 J.E. 4.24 ezPM
3.89 MikeG 4.61 zRA 3.56 MikeG 4.31 zRA
3.95 ez2 5.00 11Pyth 3.80 DSMok1 5.11 11Pyth
Re: 2012 predictions
Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2012 3:08 am
by Crow
.2 bounces have been occurring in a week or less.