APBRmetrics

The more detail you know or think you know, the greater temptation probably to alter lineups seeking edge.

People probably think they know a lot from the last 5-10 plays but they are probably on average only about half right. Tiny samples have lots of randomness (favorable and not).

Pacers now 1-7 recently. Worse win% than the 3-16 before All-Star break but not as long. That's a lot of losing for a team "with potential".

Mavs with just over 50% chance to make play-in according to BRef. Under 20% of making playoffs.

Hardy has shot well in recent months. Doesn't do a whole lot else so the BPM is still weak, not much above replacement level.

Kidd / Mavs have used him in close to 200 lineups in his 600 plus minutes. No lineup used 1 minute per game played and only 1 over 30 seconds. Good with much of bench and Irving. With Doncic, very mild positive. I'd try to find a more defined usage pattern next season.

Thunder, 780 lineups used so far. Spurs 909. Spurs may not quite make it to 1000 but there is a decent chance. 900 or 800 is plenty rando / suboptimal for performance and learning. 900 so far means about 12 brand new, never before used lineups per game throughout the season.

5 other teams over 600 but less than 725. The lowest are a bit below 300 lineups used.



Spurs just overtook Thunder for 29th on attendance. Could change again but Thunder may stay last. Down from 27th last season.

Celtics at #2 may get Heat in first round. 2-2 in regular season. #1 probably gets Hawks. Celtics were 2-0 against them.

A very average team will have a minutes qualified +3 or better on BPM, a qualified +2 or better, a +1 or better and 1 non-minutes qualified at one of these levels. Good teams will have guys higher than these minimum performance levels or more of them or both.

Nuggets have the first 3 but not a 4th. All their superiority over average by BPM is entirely based on Jokic's level.

Celtics exceed at all of the first 4 and have 3 more. So do Griz.

Bucks have all 4 and exceed on first 3 but have no more.

So 2 with great depth, 2 with just average depth but a really great player (far over +6 BPM).

The last 7 champions have averaged 1.3 really great players and 5.7 total over +1. 2016-17 Warriors and 2019-20 Lakers had 2 really greats. Only last season's Warriors missed on the qualifying best player (Curry at just +5.8).

Celtics and Griz barely achieve on best player but have the depth. Bucks and Nuggets clearly miss on quality depth. Some concern for all.

Only 2019-20 Lakers did not meet both criteria of a great player and a bare minimum of 4 qualifiers over +1 (had 3).

Quality out to 7th or 9th man may matter a bit but has not been reviewed.

Wizards lead most of way but lose the 4th quarter big for the L. 6 for 29 from Avdija and J Davis overwhelms Kispert's career game. Analyze what went wrong with roster, coaching and analysis and try again next season.

Popovich used 16 brand new lineups last game. If he averages that over the next 4 games, he will break the 1000 lineups in a season barrier. An incredibly dubious achievement.

17 of 20 most used Pistons lineups are negative for 2nd year in row. Was 60-65% negative in 2 years before that.

Seems like they need different design, personnel, management, advice,,,

5 most used Bogdanovic pairs were all bad but they re-signed him, held on to him.

19 of 20 most used pairs overall negative.


1107 quads used. Yfy?

Hayes - Burks - Bey - Duren was the immediately obvious quad to check from pair data. +32 / 48 min... in 49 minutes of test. 75th most used! F! Follow the numbers that work til they don't!

82% of 50 most used quads negative! 95% of the 20 most used negative! Stop trying at least the horrible!

Pistons under Troy Weaver: 59W-175L.

Pistons under D Casey: 79W-221L.

Mavs not in top 10 in West.

Biggest / strong Irving lineup only used 3.5 minutes per game. 2nd biggest was a loser. Biggest quad over 10 minutes but could / should have been over 20 min / gm.

Bottom 1/3rd on all defensive factors and probably worse after trade.

Elite on 3 offensive factors and 2 of 3 Moreyball components but dead last in offensive rebounding and bottom 1/3rd on shots at rim.

-3 on actual wins - expected.

Maximum of 8 current players under contract for next season at this time. 2-3 starters may not return along with former starters.

Mavs were oldest team to not make post-season.


Doncic has missed 17.5% of career games.

Julian Champagnie, over 20 pts in 3 of last 4 games. RFA this summer I believe, unless Spurs act today or tomorrow.

Spurs at 976 lineups with 1 to play. So they are very unlikely to hit 100. But 985 ish will be darn close and draws the same reaction from me.


Update: 985 it is. An average of 12 brand new lineups EVERY GAME for the season.

Last day of regular season.

Average 3pta per game is down 1 from last season. The long upward streak is broken, temporarily or long-term?

After two years of relatively low ftas, they are up again.

Highest efg% and offensive efficiency ever and by pretty big margins.