APBRmetrics

Perhaps a point of that is wrapped up in the b2b effect, right?

You could be right Evan. I didn't make notations for b2b as I was going through the results. Would have taken a lot longer. Sometimes it's the road team with the edge though (like Clips/Wizards, Bulls/Bucks and a couple of others last night). Might not be enough to move off the five at the moment...

An update of market estimates. A bit tricky because some teams have dropped due to recent injuries (Denver, Chicago, and today Portland without Aldridge). To estimate the probable market price in a game...adjust the differential below three points in favor of the home team to represent the composite of home court advantage/road court disadvantage. The market seems to be adjusting an additional 1-2 points when there's a fresh team facing an opponent in a b2b spot.

+7: Miami
+6: Oklahoma City, Chicago (with Rose, more like +3 or +4 without him)
+4: San Antonio now that Ginobili's back
+3: Dallas, Orlando, Philadelphia
+2: LAC, LAL, Indiana, Portland (with Aldridge, more like 0 or -1 without him)
+1: Boston, Memphis, Atlanta
even: Houston, Denver (down here until they get healthy), NY (rising, and probably around +1 or +2 when Carmelo is back)
-1: Milwaukee, Minnesota
-2: Golden State, Utah
-4: Cleveland (now that Irving is back)
-5: Phoenix
-6: Sacramento, Detroit, Toronto
-7: New Jersey
-8: Washington, New Orleans
-11: Charlotte

Fun to watch NY during the Lin sequence:
priced even with Utah (after adjusting for HC) in the game Carmelo got hurt (no Amare)
priced only 1.5 better than Washington with no Carmelo/Amare
priced 7.5 worse than LAL even with the Lakers in a b2b night after OT
priced 3.5 worse than Minnesota
priced 7.5 better than Toronto in the game Amare returned

Basically in the Sacramento/Toronto range or slightly worse at first without the big two, but now getting a lot of respect (they were -4.5 last night in Toronto with Amare back) as belief in Lin solidifies.

Some big action against Portland earlier today when it became clear Aldridge is out for a bit. Golden State was -2.5 on the overnight but jumped to -5. I may have Golden State too low, or Portland too high given those prices and that enthusiasm for the Warriors...

Jeff Fogle wrote: Some big action against Portland earlier today when it became clear Aldridge is out for a bit. Golden State was -2.5 on the overnight but jumped to -5. I may have Golden State too low, or Portland too high given those prices and that enthusiasm for the Warriors...

Warriors are on a 3-game winning streak. With each win, my expectations of a subsequent loss grow. I'd be surprised if we win this one even with LMA being out.

EvanZ wrote: Warriors are on a 3-game winning streak. With each win, my expectations of a subsequent loss grow. I'd be surprised if we win this one even with LMA being out.

Gambler's fallacy? Reverse hot-hand? Or fan fatalism?

Maybe a combination of all 3. Although I will say that we usually seem to play well on national tv, so maybe that all balances out.

Golden State 6-2-1 straight up at the end of regulation the last nine games, with the two losses coming against OKC...

Knicks v. Warriors NBA Finals! It's gonna be Linsane!

EvanZ wrote:

Jeff Fogle wrote: Some big action against Portland earlier today when it became clear Aldridge is out for a bit. Golden State was -2.5 on the overnight but jumped to -5. I may have Golden State too low, or Portland too high given those prices and that enthusiasm for the Warriors...

Warriors are on a 3-game winning streak. With each win, my expectations of a subsequent loss grow. I'd be surprised if we win this one even with LMA being out.

I know my team.

My power rankings now once again have
Miami
Chicago
-GAP-
Rest of league

Denver is currently pretty low in RAPM, due to all their injuries. They might also want to think about giving less minutes to Afflalo (-15 NET per bbv)
Hawks are low in RAPM, Hinrich is back and he's rated pretty bad.
Clippers are #7.
The Warriors are at -0.2, I've never seen them that high. Udoh is going crazy in all things +/-, the Warriors are +9 when he's playing, -9 without him.

The bad-to-bottom teams are pretty much unchanged

Last night's OKC-GSW was frustrating to watch. At some point during the second quarter, Udoh and Jeremy Tyler were manning the front court, and the game was close. I think GSW was actually up by a couple of points. I like Tyler. He needs to get more pt. At any rate, after that, Jackson decided to go very small: Curry/Ellis/Klay/Wright/Lee. It was awful to watch. They got slaughtered thereafter.

That was just the second time they used Curry/Ellis/Klay/Wright/Lee. It was +4 on Feb 14 in about 3 minutes of testing. -7 last night.

There are a couple of small lineups doing very well but in just 40-50 minutes of testing. I'd probably test those more.

Curry, Stephen - Ellis, Monta - Wright, Dorell - Lee, David - Udoh, Ekpe (unit) is +18 per 48 minutes on raw +/- and +12 on Adjusted +/- in about 50 minutes. They were +8 in 4 minutes in the first quarter... and Jackson only passed back by them for like 30-60 seconds in the 2nd.

Don't need advance software programming credentials or NBA playing experience to read and prioritize that publicly available information.

JE, why do you believe there's a gap from Miami and Chicago to OKC in your data?

Miami 24-7 vs. soft schedule (21st in Hollinger, 25th in Sagarin)
Chicago 25-8 vs. easy schedule (29th in Hollinger, 27th in Sagarin)
Oklahoma City 23-7 vs. decent schedule (9th in Hollinger and Sagarin)

(Hollinger of ESPN, Sagarin of USA Today for international readers)

Is it because OKC has been less hit by the injury bug, and you're rating everyone at full strength? Just wondering about that...because most places I see have OKC up in a big three rather than gapped out of a big two. Doesn't mean they're right and you're wrong. Was just wondering what you believed caused that separation in your process...

The Thunder are 2nd in W% (23-7) and 4th in SRS (6.1)
They're 6-2 in games decided by 4 points or less. They could as easily be 2-6 in those games, or 19-11 . That would be 9th best W%

Their SOS is barely over avg, +.28, according to b-r.com. That's 15th.

My Vegas ratings from Feb. 11 had MIA-CHI-OKC clearly at the top, and then a big gap b/w OKC and POR.
But like Jerry, my adjusted team ratings (avg. of pure ridge and pure lasso) have a big gap after the top two:
According to those, it looks like a top 2 (CHI, MIA), a second 3 (PHI, OKC, SAS), and then everyone else.