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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:09 am
by Mike G
Reshuffling at the top:
Code: Select all
AJ 5.65 rsm 6.40 nr 7.51
Cal 5.74 Crow 6.42 EZ 7.71
DF 5.75 fpli 6.46 Dan 7.75
tzu 5.78 MG 6.61 taco 7.90
KF 5.83 yoop 6.64 DrP 7.94
km 5.91 itca 6.79 15py 9.61
DSM 6.13 BD 6.87
bbs 6.23 snd 6.90
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:50 pm
by kmedved
Christmas break is a good time for an update:
I've added a column tracking each team's remaining average opponent SRS. These are adjusted (regressed) SRSs, so they're not quite as extreme as simply adding up the remaining schedule opponents. I've also added in a home court advantage, which makes a big difference for some teams (Miami has played 18 home games and only 9 road so far).
Rockets are in for a rough stretch:
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:18 pm
by Statman
Wow, like that last one - since I rank so much higher than any of the recent previous posts.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Fri Dec 25, 2015 12:59 am
by Mike G
Congratulations. Relative to b-r.com, you're not looking as well as in the blend of several.
Of course, as the season progresses, all these forecasts converge on actual wins.
Since the E and W are suddenly equal, we should expect better predictions from plus-minus systems. In boxscore metrics, East players unexpectedly got better.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Sun Dec 27, 2015 8:33 pm
by caliban
great additions kmedved
---
AJbaskets increasing the lead in a week that had the field all over the place
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Sun Dec 27, 2015 9:20 pm
by BasketDork
Two solid weeks in a row, ( this week, only AJBaskets & Yooper gained more ground.) I'm hoping to keep the momentum going.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:34 pm
by Mike G
The Clippers have not been the greatest disappointment, but we were all guessing 6-14 wins better than their current projections.
Code: Select all
. 2015-16 2014-15
. Clippers Min PER WS/48 BPM e484 PER WS/48 BPM e484
Blake Griffin 1048 23.7 .179 4.5 2.12 22.8 .183 4.1 2.11
DeAndre Jordan 1017 19.5 .193 2.6 1.70 21.0 .217 4.1 1.60
Chris Paul 844 23.7 .212 4.8 1.92 26.0 .270 7.5 2.30
Jamal Crawford 784 10.7 .033 -4.1 .54 16.6 .102 -1.0 1.25
J.J. Redick 732 17.4 .146 0.6 .97 16.2 .134 0.7 1.05
Austin Rivers 618 7.9 .016 -3.2 .21 10.2 .046 -2.4 .46
L Stephenson 503 7.5 .020 -2.6 .26 Cha 8.8 -.026 -3.5 .62
Paul Pierce 479 6.4 .014 -3.7 .05 Was 15.2 .138 1.5 1.09
Wesley Johnson 477 12.6 .098 0.2 .39 LAL 11.1 .037 -1.5 .45
Josh Smith 413 14.2 .045 0.5 .94 Hou 14.9 .048 1.0 1.27
L Mbah a Moute 355 6.9 .048 -2.7 -.09 Phl 10.6 .027 -3.2 .53
Pablo Prigioni 134 8.8 .055 -0.5 .12 Hou 12.2 .092 -0.5 .38
Cole Aldrich 62 15.0 .103 0.5 .73 NYK 18.1 .107 0.9 1.28
eW/484 are a few days outdated.
The 6 returnees from last year have gone down avg 1.6 in PER, .029 ws/48, and 1.3 in BPM
The 6 new guys avg drops are 3.0 in PER, .014 WS/48, .7 BPM
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Sun Jan 03, 2016 12:15 pm
by caliban
Vegas winning in a week that had a very heavy regression towards preseason expectations.
AJbaskets slowly turning into a Akakabuto sized bear at the mountaintop with
tarrazu and
DSmok1 closing in. Myself and
kmedved falling.
oh, and
Basketball Dork with the 3rd solid week in a row climbing the ladder like Petyr Baelish.
Side note; Think I'll start decreasing the weight of the top5 starting February or so.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2016 4:02 pm
by Mike G
At about 42% of the season, avg errors relative to b-r.com forecast.
Code: Select all
tzu 5.24 bbs 5.91 snd 6.35
AJ 5.25 yoop 5.97 itca 6.43
DF 5.48 fpli 5.99 EZ 7.05
Cal 5.50 MG 6.17 nr 7.06
DSM 5.51 Crow 6.19 Dan 7.54
KF 5.56 rsm 6.25 DrP 7.57
km 5.73 BD 6.31 taco 7.57
Likely to win the West in playoffs: SAS 49%, GSW 38%, OKC 10.5%
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fri ... f_prob.cgi
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Jan 05, 2016 4:49 am
by Dr Positivity
Here's to Ish Smith turning the Sixers into a .500 team the rest of the season and making my 33 W prediction manageable. A man can dream.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:44 pm
by Mike G
It's funny -- whenever I see Sixers highlights, there's Ish Smith. But he's shooting .430, with 30% Usg. His WS/48 is negative, his BPM is sub-replacement level, and his PER is 15.9
Oh, his ORtg-DRtg is 92-108 in 6 Phl games. This after a 122-104 night.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Jan 05, 2016 8:57 pm
by nbacouchside
Mike G wrote:At about 42% of the season, avg errors relative to b-r.com forecast.
Code: Select all
tzu 5.24 bbs 5.91 snd 6.35
AJ 5.25 yoop 5.97 itca 6.43
DF 5.48 fpli 5.99 EZ 7.05
Cal 5.50 MG 6.17 nr 7.06
DSM 5.51 Crow 6.19 Dan 7.54
KF 5.56 rsm 6.25 DrP 7.57
km 5.73 BD 6.31 taco 7.57
Likely to win the West in playoffs: SAS 49%, GSW 38%, OKC 10.5%
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fri ... f_prob.cgi
Going tumbling down the rankings. Womp womp.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Wed Jan 06, 2016 4:15 pm
by kmedved
Update:
The aggregate of the top 5 is now handily winning in RMSE.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:23 pm
by BasketDork
Why am I doing so much crappier in kmedved's rankings than in Mike G.'s or caliban's ?
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:09 pm
by Mike G
I'm just using b-r.com's forecast. The forecasts will of course converge as the season progresses.
Code: Select all
AJ 5.06 fpli 5.86 BD 6.33
Cal 5.32 Crow 5.92 snd 6.46
tzu 5.40 rsm 5.97 nr 6.99
DF 5.43 bbs 5.98 EZ 7.16
KF 5.64 yoop 6.12 Dan 7.56
km 5.66 MG 6.22 taco 7.58
DSM 5.66 itca 6.32 DrP 7.62