Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

[Crow]

2 elite factor ranks, 2 near average, 4 bad- including 23rd on own efg% and 29th on defensive rebounding .

Bottom 25% on assist rate.

Only above average on defense because of forced turnovers. 6th highest foul rate to get those turnovers. Only slightly above average on offense because of ball protection.

4 of 5 most used player pairs are negative. Team success highly dependent on SGA time with bench players.

Giddey negative with 8 of 10 most frequent partners, including all of current starting lineup. Dort 50/50 with starters and bench. Jalen Williams 75% negative with starters, 50/50 with main bench.

[Crow]

10th best SRS, 15th best record, one game above 20th.

[Crow]

7 of 17 on team are above league average on efg%, but not 4 of 5 starters including SGA. Only the low usage Center.

5 of 17 have defensive rebounding rate of 15plus% or 29% of team. Over 40% in rest of league.

4 of 17 with 15plus% assist% or 23.5% of team. Rest of league close to 34%. And one of the 4 has played just 19 minutes and another just barely met the criteria.

Thunder: below average on number of players with higher level performances on 3 main boxscore stats.

[Crow]

By factor level performance, Thunder are close to Griz on offense, close to TWolves on defense.

By offensive & defensive efficiency ratings, they are closest to Suns, Pelicans, Raptors and Nets.

Slightly above average numbers.

Which measures are they going to significantly improve on next season and beyond? How?

Chet Holmgren could help many ways but how much will he how soon?

[Crow]

24 teams have a bigger minute lineup than the Thunder's biggest. A handful have several bigger.

[Crow]

Thunder will go into a 4 way tie for 8-11th seed.

Better record than 11 teams.


Thunder with more than double the fouls as the Clippers, giving the Clippers almost a 2 to 1 advantage in FTAs. Clippers also have 6 more 3s. Losing second half by 25.

No Thunder wins their time on court. Clippers win every stat in the boxscore.

[Crow]

Based on counterpart production by position (at hoopsstats.com), the Thunder are worst in league at Center. Below average at the forward spots. One of the top rated backcourts, because that is where the scoring is coming from.

[Crow]

Thunder lose and move to 10th seed in west.

22 lineups used. 11 performed at -50 pts / 100p to almost -600 / 100p. 7 or 8 were brand new / never before used.

4 biggest minute lineups won big but the other 18 dink and near dink lineups sucked on average and overpowered.

17 positive pairs and 49 non-positive.

[Crow]

Starters first stint tonight against Blazers without 4 typical starters? About -50pts / 100p.

Does the 2nd quarter surge mean the poor start is forgiven or forgotten or acceptable? Not to me.

Win was in jeopardy in final 2 minutes but they got it. So, they'll keep playing this way and ignoring the awful starts.

[Crow]

SRS tied for 11th - 12th and 0.02 from 13th.

If they are going to get to 40 or 41 or 42 wins, they'd help themselves a lot to take 2 of the next 3.

[Crow]

Given the roster and design, Holmgren likely plays mostly Center next season.

But testing him at PF and comparing results will still be important.

Other West teams currently start 10 centers I'd call "big". Can Holmgren handle & hold up? We'll see.

[Crow]

Dort shoots too much. Only 20% usage but probably should be 15-16% tops. No way should his usage be 10% higher than Jalen Williams. His TS% is 17th of 19 to play this season.

Coach his shot selection harder, play him less, don't pass to him as much or trade him.

[Crow]

1 point / 100p better than Hawks. 2 pts better than Jazz and Wizards.

Will need to go a lot higher to achieve much.



They relish the comeback and are pretty good at it, but that is still a beta personality.

[Crow]

Thunder lose to Hornets without 4 starters.

SGA did not play tonight. But 12 other guys did. Cuz... more rando by Daigno.

[Crow]

Dort is 8 for his last 35 FGAs.

Then goes 6 of 10 after my comment.



Thunder win over Pistons on very last play of game.