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Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2025 1:03 am
by TeemoTeejay
I’ll do a joint victory with dtka like in the 2020 dunk contest
Wont be allowed to enter competition after this I think either way for awhile lol
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2025 12:34 pm
by Mike G
Pulling away?
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
TmTj 7.27 9.6 .46 KPel 8.14 9.6 .58
dtka 7.44 9.5 .46 24pr 8.14 10.6 .33
avgA 7.48 9.8 .42 Crow 8.21 10.3 .41
medi 7.58 10.7 .38 vegas 8.25 10.4 .39
bpmW 7.70 9.6 .44 emin 8.31 10.5 .39
DQin 7.75 10.1 .43 24py 8.59 11.6 .33
eExp 8.00 10.4 .44 eWin 9.14 11.4 .22
WShr 8.08 9.9 .40 bmgm 9.25 12.1 .33
. perW 9.38 11.6 .20
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2025 6:10 pm
by Crow
Might look at impact on final results if I regressed to mean by 0.5, 1.0 or 1.5 in general or in a specific way. Probably would help.
PERw in last place.
We know PER was trying to get the top "right". Generally high usage guys. Maybe it does for that limited purpose. Not well across all roles.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:53 pm
by Mike G
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
TmTj 7.45 9.8 .45 KPel 8.31 9.8 .58
dtka 7.64 9.7 .45 24pr 8.37 10.8 .32
avgA 7.72 10.0 .41 WShr 8.39 10.2 .39
medi 7.79 10.9 .37 vegas 8.44 10.6 .39
DQin 7.88 10.3 .42 emin 8.48 10.8 .38
bpmW 8.03 9.8 .43 24py 8.66 11.7 .32
eExp 8.20 10.6 .43 bmgm 9.35 12.2 .32
Crow 8.22 10.4 .42 eWin 9.52 11.7 .21
. perW 9.79 11.9 .19
Code: Select all
e = .24 e = .87 e = 2.02 e = 6.00
4.98 medi 7.11 TmTj 9.73 dtka 13.5 KPel
5.37 DQin 7.33 dtka 9.85 KPel 14.3 dtka
5.37 TmTj 7.33 medi 9.85 TmTj 14.5 bpmW
5.69 dtka 7.50 DQin 9.86 bpmW 14.5 WShr
5.95 eExp 7.76 bpmW 10.21 WShr 15.4 DQin
6.07 Crow 7.84 eExp 10.30 DQin 15.9 Crow
6.36 emin 7.88 Crow 10.44 Crow 15.9 TmTj
6.39 bpmW 8.07 KPel 10.60 vegas 16.1 vegas
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 6:26 pm
by knarsu3
So seems like a bunch of people were interested in seeing where LEBRON/DARKO rank but don't see it included?
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 9:29 pm
by TeemoTeejay
knarsu3 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 07, 2025 6:26 pm
So seems like a bunch of people were interested in seeing where LEBRON/DARKO rank but don't see it included?
From my understanding, Darko would be first, and using the BBI projections, EPM would be between AvgA and median, and LEBRON would be a bit behind BPM, going by the bbref projections which is whats been used so far
Paul george and nico harrison ruined me lmao
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 11:48 pm
by Mike G
Has anyone posted a link to these, with certainty that they were made pre-season?
FWIW, I have a blend of BPM, WS, PER, and eWins that would be in first place; but I didn't enter it before the season, and I've not listed it.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2025 12:28 am
by TeemoTeejay
Mike G wrote: ↑Mon Apr 07, 2025 11:48 pm
Has anyone posted a link to these, with certainty that they were made pre-season?
FWIW, I have a blend of BPM, WS, PER, and eWins that would be in first place; but I didn't enter it before the season, and I've not listed it.
DARKO came out the day after or day of, the BBI ones are here
https://www.bball-index.com/season-team-projections/
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2025 12:42 am
by Crow
Both links were posted March 16th, page 12.
And Knarsu3 had his own set right below them.
The authors of these sets can report their final results, if needed.
1 day late in apparent publishing has not been a problem previously. Any see anything fishy?
Remember or caring to post here varies.
Several ways to look at results. Overall known / tracked winner, official entry winner, 2 other measuring sticks available if not content with average error...
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2025 1:24 am
by Crow
Currently moved ahead of Vegas and Pelton. Breathing down the neck of ESPN experts.
Eighth to tied for 6th by the 3 measures of error, among the listed.
A few more days.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2025 4:08 pm
by Mike G
Both links were posted March 16th, page 12.
And Knarsu3 had his own set right below them.
Aha, thanks. As the last post on the page, they never showed up for me; and it seemed people were still asking for them by p. 13.
It seems a slippery slope. Potentially unlimited 'other' sets of projections -- multiples from knarsu? -- coming in at all times of year?
If your guesses are looking good in March, submit them then? If not, fuggedaboudit.
I asked at least once about others
around deadline time, and Crow got us KPel, vegas, and bmgm. No mas.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2025 4:57 pm
by TeemoTeejay
I don’t think there’s an issue with including LEBRON or EPM projections since he went on here to post and it’s not like either would win anyway
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2025 7:45 pm
by dtkavana
include them all! the more, the merrier, imo. We could still. give TMTJ the contest victory while including the others in a separate table?
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2025 10:59 pm
by Crow
To win the "contest" you have to enter.
To "win" overall tracked, they haven't in past.
Vegas has "won" overall without entering. ESPN Experts won I think, with someone else entering them. That was an overall win. Same I think with Darko.
As said before, somebody calculate the final results of the affected non contest names if they want. Interpret results as want to.
Already 3 ways to "win" in some minds in the contest. With the outside lane it becomes 6. Or use in the contest / average and be done with it. People will say what they want.
There could be someone outside the tracked who does really well. Care or don't. Tout that if they want. Join officially in future or not. It is a bit loose.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2025 6:35 pm
by kmedved
I posted the DARKO projections on Twitter, and they're available here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =235611189), but I don't actually mind a standard that they need to posted/linked here to be included. It's fairly low cost/effort of us to do so, and I didn't do it. As noted, there are many many win projections out there, and including all of them seems unrealistic, so requiring a post here seems fine.
Also if I recall, I think my projections may have come in a few hours late this year. I promise I didn't use any "in-sample" data, but I would have missed the deadline this year regardless.