2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

[Crow]

You got a slice by SMRE and real close on absolute error. Celebration is mostly self-service here... but congrats!

I'll remember my brief come from behind lead, before final week or two of ball where a lot of teams seem to have atypical performances.

[Mike G]

Andrew Johnson said it well last year in an article -- he'd finished among the leaders.
Anyone doing better than Vegas has done something.

[Nate]

Never really feel like I learn much from these predictions since a) the totals are fairly close to each other and b) minutes projections could make a significant difference.

Minute information makes a significant difference. Relatively simple models will beat Vegas retrodictively if they can use minute information.

That said, it seems like you'd want to start by setting up the scoring in a way that allows people to control for minutes rather than coming in with that at the end of the contest.

[RyanRiot]

Looks like 538 has realized their mistake and are adding RPM back into their model. Interesting that they felt it warranted complete removal last year but are weighting it at 2/3 now.