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Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2015 3:48 pm
by nrestifo
Sorry I was MIA yesterday. I was outside in the stupid sun.
ampersand5 wrote:Consequently, I wanted to ask the people on here if they mind if I edit parts of their blurb. if you don't want me to shorten your stuff, I will leave it as is (PM if you don't want to post it publicly).
Feel absolutely free to edit mine if you like.
ampersand5 wrote:Nick, if I can get all of the scores for each model, can you try and figure this stuff out for the spreadsheet?
Yes. I can definitely take a look today. Would be happy to do so.
Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2015 3:51 pm
by nrestifo
I'm noticing Jesse gave draft models their names. I dont really have a name for mine. Should I make one? Any suggestions?
Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2015 4:28 pm
by ampersand5
The updated spreadsheet is almost done. You can view it here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
We are just waiting for Jesse's updated rankings.
Also, we need Andrew's rankings for the following players:
Wesley Saunders, Travis Trice, Shannon Scott, Seth Tuttle, Lebryan Nash, Juwan Staten, Joshua Smith and Derrick Marks
Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2015 6:08 pm
by nrestifo
So here's what Z scores would like, if anyone wants to take a look.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =529517843
Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2015 6:22 pm
by Crow
I like the consensus avg. right next to names on z score chart and would too for main chart. If consensus is a main feature make it easy to read. Another option is to put names on left and right ends of chart. Middle too may be too much but sometimes helps.
By consensus Looney appears to be one of most undervalued compared to DX, especially if you measure undervalue by expected value over expected value of draft pick # rather than difference between model pick # - actual (added value for pick #s rapidly decline after about 15; e.g. 20 over 21, 25 over 26, etc.) Is it significantly because of the asthma?
Maybe the over / under rated stuff with commentary from Jonathan is a part 3 or 4 thing. If it is short / not really that thorough and thoughtful it will detract.
At some point an avg. of mocks should be compared to an avg. of analytic models. Just before or after draft? Comparing to only one mock give the model avg. the sole advantage of blending.
There is also the word from the crowd:
http://www.nbadraft.net/nba_mock_drafts/consensus
If there is room for another column and even comparison it might be nice to include a rep for the audience reading the article. Or just have this link here for that is space or politics precludes.
Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2015 7:35 pm
by ampersand5
The spreadsheet is finally finished and ready to go.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
most underrated are: Delon Wright, Kevon Looney, Wesley Saunders, Seth Tuttle. Most overrated: Jonathan Holmes, Willie Cauley-Stein, Devin Booker, Anthony Brown.
for the lazy, here are the rankings:
Code: Select all
Ranking Prospect
1 Karl Towns
2 D'Angelo Russell
3 Jahlil Okafor
4 Justise Winslow
5 Stanley Johnson
6 Myles Turner
7 Frank Kaminsky
8 Tyus Jones
9 Kevon Looney
10 Delon Wright
11 Bobby Portis
12 Kelly Oubre
13 Cameron Payne
14 Willie Cauley-Stein
15 Jerian Grant
16 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
17 Christian Wood
18 Devin Booker
19 Sam Dekker
20 R.J. Hunter
21 Montrezl Harrell
22 Trey Lyles
23 Robert Upshaw
24 Cliff Alexander
25 Richaun Holmes
26 Rashad Vaughn
27 Justin Anderson
28 Chris McCullough
29 Jarell Martin
30 Dakari Johnson
31 Aaron White
32 Terry Rozier
33 Jordan Mickey
34 Alan Williams
35 Vince Hunter
36 Wesley Saunders
37 J.P. Tokoto
38 Seth Tuttle
39 T.J. McConnell
40 Andrew Harrison
41 Larry Nance
42 Branden Dawson
43 Michael Frazier
44 Michael Qualls
45 Joseph Young
46 Darrun Hilliard
47 Josh Richardson
48 Rakeem Christmas
49 Keifer Sykes
50 Derrick Marks
51 Jonathan Holmes
52 Olivier Hanlan
53 Pat Connaughton
54 Norman Powell
55 Anthony Brown
56 Tyler Harvey
57 Aaron Harrison
58 Quinn Cook
59 Treveon Graham
60 Joshua Smith
61 TaShawn Thomas
62 Ryan Boatright
63 Chasson Randle
64 Shannon Scott
65 Corey Hawkins
66 Brandon Ashley
67 Chris Walker
68 Travis Trice
69 Dez Wells
70 D.J. Newbill
71 Terran Petteway
72 Julian Washburn
73 Marcus Thornton
74 Juwan Staten
75 LeBryan Nash
Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2015 7:54 pm
by Crow
At some point it would be interesting to look at team by team avg pick distance from DX, a mock consensus, the crowds and the model consensus. That could be done with 2 or more years of the available data or just for this draft and perhaps moment to moment here or on twitter.
Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2015 9:11 pm
by ampersand5
Everything is now done and sent off to DraftExpress.
Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2015 12:07 am
by Statman
ampersand5 wrote:Everything is now done and sent off to DraftExpress.
Again, great job Daniel being on the ball with this. Fun stuff imo.
Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2015 1:27 am
by nrestifo
Yes, a continued thanks to everyone for their work. Thanks to Amp for getting everything together and Jesse and Viraj for their awesome tool on tothemean.com as well.
Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2015 3:01 am
by Crow
I am glad to read that tothemean.com plans to put some other mocks side by side with the analytic models and is open to other adds.
Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2015 6:57 am
by jessefis
We're glad you guys are enjoying the tool. FYI I updated my rankings this morning - they changed quite a bit again. They should be more stable from here on out.
We are happy to add more models if you send us data. We'd love to get Kevin Pelton's up but we didn't want to blindly add without permission - might Kevin be following this thread?
Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2015 2:46 am
by Crow
I've seen some comments about how well measurables predict NBA performance in general but has anyone done breakouts on the top and bottom 10% and 25%s? Jesse, is this an area where you use a non-linear model? Does anyone use a model customized by position or at least perimeter / interior for this aspect?
I assume there are players that some teams have invested a couple hundred hours of total time in tracking and evaluating? How common is that do you think? I am assuming it is pretty common. Are any teams giving certain players a thousand plus hours (including travel time I guess and cumulative from beginning of tracking to the end)? How high do they go, should they go? Any teams spend north of $100,000 all things considered for evaluating a single high lottery pick? Is it unusual or not really? If they aren't, I'd ask why not? If they are, then they should have budgets to accomodate receipt of stat model advice (customized and interactive) and probably from multiple sources.
Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2015 7:28 pm
by jgivony
Thanks for all your submissions guys. And thanks especially to dan for editing everything. I just posted the second article from the middle of the Atlantic. Was in Italy the last few days at Eurocamp so apologies for sitting on this a bit.
I thought the article came out great. Looking at international draft prospects in part three seems timely and appropriate now. We'll see if Vezenkov stays in the draft (not a big deal I think if hewithdraws and we wrote about him). Probably Kaba and Luwawu will be the other two guys that are on the mock that could withdraw.
If anyone needs data on the internationals I have quite a bit of stuff. Not just from their specific leagues (even junior competition) but also National team stuff from FIBA) as well as specific events like the EuroCamp or Euroleague Nike International Junior Tournament. Happy to send whatever if you guys can tell me specifically what you'd like (raw totals?)
Re: APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project
Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2015 9:29 pm
by Crow
Compared to the DX mock, the analytic model consensus makes a case for move up attempts for one or more of Jones, Portis, Looney and Wright. It doesn't happen often. Might be most likely for Portis (with Jones's size, Wright's age and Looney's asthma potentially tempering enthusiasm). Who from 8-13 is most likely to be willing to trade down? I dunno. Who is most likely to try to trade up? I'll guess the list includes prominently the Celtics, 76ers, Bucks, Rockets and perhaps Spurs. Some others that would like to probably don't have current assets to pay the bill.