APBRmetrics

Minutes distribution for the Griz will be interesting again. Lots of competition. Lots of guys who will get less than they want and probably even less than expected.

11 players got 1000+ minutes last season and 3 more over 400. Only 1 over 2000.

(Nuggets had 5 over 2000, only 8 over 1000 and then 4 over or real near 600 and 1 more at almost 400. A very different profile.)

Consolidation trade would appear desirable but unclear if Griz agree and do want it takes to pull off by trade deadline.

Are there any off-season trades that truly have change significance about the likely winner of the Western Conference finals? My answer is no.

Don't know exactly what to expect from Blazers next season but I am a bit more interested now.

Devin Vassell gets 5 year, $146 million extension.

Darko projection trend reached peak of 0 in spring 2022 and has drifted a bit down since.

Has developed 3 pt shot but is still below average on ts%, partly due to low ft rate.

Darko has him below average on defensive impact and his improvement rate was in lowest 10-15% in league. 440th means on average more than 14 guys per team had a better change rate.

Moderately bad raw on / off on one of worst teams.

What a league. What a deal.

Grabbing a pretty high usage rate paid well for Vassell. Quite costly for Spurs.

What does he do from here? True core or eventual trade?

Notable young names with Blazers in last 4 seasons, about 18. Number to exceed 0 on BPM with Blazers so far: 0. Minutes vary but achievement threshold not achieved.


Hope, expectation, pride in current young names appears high, though. Anyways. Fwiw. At least 4 more for upcoming season.

Notable young names with Thunder in last 3 seasons, about 22. Number to exceed 0 on BPM so far: 5, though most barely or not sustained.

Hard task.

Wembanyama in preseason:

Strong ts%, below average 3pt fg% (as usual). Strong blocks and team +/-. Meh rebounding and weak A/TO.

Griz below where I expected. Timberwolves as well, below my expectations and many others.

Mavs, 1st in conference by record, 9th on SRS.

Kings, tied for 8th by record, 3rd on SRS.

Thunder, tied for 5th to 7th by record, 12th by SRS.

Durant so far: worst BPM since his rookie season.

A. Edwards: touted by several as next "face" of the league. BPM of just +2, 90th best. Better than last season but not an All-Star to me.

Durant's next to worst season still slightly better than Edwards'.

Crow wrote: ↑Sat Nov 04, 2023 8:30 pm Durant so far: worst BPM since his rookie season.

A. Edwards: touted by several as next "face" of the league. BPM of just +2, 90th best. Better than last season but not an All-Star to me.

Durant's next to worst season still slightly better than Edwards'.

That’s the thing with Edwards — I’ve never really gotten the “he’s got next” media thing with him.

From the same draft class, Ball was better the first 2 years (see: ROY and All-Star select.). Haliburton was better in 2022-23 and on TeamUSA.

Furthermore, for the players 25 and under, I would take Tatum, Dončić, Jackson Jr. and Ball with higher projected peaks, I have Edwards right after that.

However, the biggest issue for me is that it’s Year 4 for Edwards and he still can’t read the floor. I simply don’t see how he’s “the guy.”

The preference of most is for a "creator" as that term is often used, but those picks are usually at least somewhat "selfish" scorers.
(Chris Paul would be an example of a purer "creator".)

He has an image of power, an image of being "hungry" and supposedly funny. His hunger has not achieved much yet for team and I'd call him immature over hungry or funny.

But whatever on the subjective.

Post way better personal and team results if want to be properly called one of the best. No way he is anywhere near in the mix for THE best at this time.

In last year's postseason, A Edwards was 3rd in BPM and PER, 10th in WS/48, 19th in Ast%, 11th in Stl%, 10th in Blk%; median in TRb%, 10th best TO%; 2nd in Usg% and .602 TS% -- only Joker also shot .600 with 30+ Usg. So not one weakness to be seen. For just 5 games.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html Someone arguably out-playing Jokic in a playoff series -- when's the last time that happened?
bpmWin = (BPM+5.25)*minutes/3066

Yeah, I kinda forgot about that. But you can say just 5 games; and I dunno, did the opponent let him go in order to contain others?

4-1 would say they were successful, whatever the strategy.

Mike G wrote: ↑Tue Nov 07, 2023 1:28 am In last year's postseason, A Edwards was 3rd in BPM and PER, 10th in WS/48, 19th in Ast%, 11th in Stl%, 10th in Blk%; median in TRb%, 10th best TO%; 2nd in Usg% and .602 TS% -- only Joker also shot .600 with 30+ Usg. So not one weakness to be seen. For just 5 games.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html

Code: Select all

bpmW   WC Rd 1       tm   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e490
1.02  Ant. Edwards  Min   199   27.3   .190   10.4   2.51
1.01  Nikola Jokić  Den   185   28.1   .275   11.5   3.21
.66   Jamal Murray  Den   192   22.0   .188    5.3   2.28
.48  Michael Porter Den   180   16.6   .182    2.9   1.55
.35   Mike Conley   Min   183   13.2   .097    0.6    .53
.32   Rudy Gobert   Min   177   18.1   .145    0.3   1.30
.30  Kyle Anderson  Min   104   14.8   .079    3.7    .60
.28   Bruce Brown   Den   135   14.7   .125    1.1    .73
.23   Aaron Gordon  Den   163   15.2   .184   -0.9    .96

Someone arguably out-playing Jokic in a playoff series -- when's the last time that happened?
bpmWin = (BPM+5.25)*minutes/3066

That’s only one 5-game playoff series. You can’t judge a player by a single postseason that they have never replicated over a much larger regular season sample.

By that logic, Mitchell, Booker and Murray should be thought of in similar high regard based on their 2020, 2023 and 2020 playoff performances, respectively. Yet, they are not.