2024 Playoffs overview

[Mike G]

They say it's the biggest loss by a defending champion in NBA playoff history.
Ranked by biggest gains (by Wolves) and losses (Den) in series BPM during this one game (of 6).
Showing GameBPM and gains/losses from their previous 5-game rates.

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. Min     mp   BPM   PER  WS/48  BPM      . Den   mp    BPM    PER  WS/48   BPM
McDaniels 30  20.2   4.6  .109   3.9      Jackson 12  -24.1   -7.5  -.141  -5.0
Morris     9   7.5   1.5  .066   3.4      Holiday 13  -21.4   -3.2  -.068  -2.7
Anderson  11  16.4   2.3  .060   1.9      Braun   18  -12.0   -2.7  -.059  -2.0
Ni. A-W   17   9.9   1.3  .063   1.4      Jokić   36    3.8   -2.0  -.062  -1.4
Edwards   34  14.9    .8  .052   1.0      Porter  31   -7.3    -.9  -.030  -0.7
Conley    31   8.5    .9  .059   0.9      Murray  33   -6.2   -2.1  -.062  -0.5
Gobert    29   1.0   -.3  .028   0.0      Ke. C-P 28    1.5     .3  -.010   0.1
Towns     29   2.4   -.1  .035  -0.1      Gordon  28   12.6    -.2  -.033   0.4
Reid      22  -3.5   -.1  .029  -0.7      Watson  10   -2.3    4.3   .058   4.8
. team   240   7.6   1.0  .052   0.9     . team  240   -2.9   -1.9  -.053  -1.2

Denver bench took the worst of the beating, but there was plenty to go around.
Here are those before and after (5G and 6G) rates:

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. Den     PER   WS/48   BPM   e480       PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Jackson  16.9   .098    0.9    .76       9.4  -.043   -4.1    .23
Holiday  10.4   .116    0.0    .20       7.2   .048   -2.7   -.22
Braun    14.2   .152    1.5    .46      11.5   .093   -0.5    .15
Jokić    31.1   .290   12.7   3.31      29.1   .228   11.3   3.02
Porter    8.7   .028   -3.0    .31       7.8  -.002   -3.7    .08
Murray   11.5   .009   -3.5    .88       9.4  -.053   -4.0    .62
Ke. C-P  10.0   .110    0.0    .20      10.3   .100    0.1    .11
Gordon   23.9   .278    9.4   1.87      23.7   .245    9.8   1.82
Watson   -5.8  -.248  -16.2   -.15      -1.5  -.190  -11.4    .05
totals   16.0   .132    2.3   1.11      14.1   .079    1.1    .85
                           
. Min     PER   WS/48   BPM   e480       PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
McDaniels 6.4  -.026   -3.9   -.14      11.0   .083    0.0    .29
Morris    8.7  -.056   -7.5    .07      10.2   .010   -4.1    .41
Anderson 11.9   .061    1.0    .12      14.2   .121    2.9    .45
Ni. A-W   6.8  -.031   -3.4   -.14       8.1   .032   -2.0   -.04
Edwards  24.6   .171    7.8   2.19      25.4   .223    8.8   2.57
Conley   15.7   .110    3.5   1.06      16.6   .169    4.4   1.32
Gobert   15.5   .125    1.1   1.03      15.2   .153    1.1   1.18
Towns    18.4   .125    3.2   1.56      18.3   .160    3.1   1.72
Reid     13.9   .038    0.2    .64      13.8   .067   -0.5    .90
. totals 14.8   .077    1.4    .89      15.8   .129    2.3   1.15

https://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic. ... 681#p41681

[Mike G]

After 6 games, the Knicks and Pacers have won all of their home games; NY by an avg of 14.3, Ind by 16.7
Those who have played in all 6:

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in Indianapolis                  in New York   
Min  e480   eWin    Knicks     Min   e480  eWin
127   .00   .00      Hart      136   1.69   .48
124   .81   .21   DiVincenzo   127   1.06   .28
112   .94   .22     Brunson    119   2.74   .68
105   .23   .05   Hartenstein  107   1.61   .36
71    .41   .06     McBride     53   -.36  -.04

Min  e480   eWin    Pacers     Min   e480  eWin
104  2.77   .60   Haliburton   106   1.58   .35
99   2.08   .43     Siakam     106    .95   .21
97   1.93   .39     Turner      99    .58   .12
98    .59   .12    Nesmith      95   -.20  -.04
85    .85   .15    Nembhard     84    .29   .05
62   1.86   .24    McConnell    66    .80   .11
57   1.18   .14     Toppin      58   1.32   .16
42   1.60   .14     Jackson     40    .24   .02

Nobody for NY has been even average ( =1.00 eW/480) in Indy. Only Deuce and Obi have been better on the opponent's floor.

[Mike G]

2nd round eWins leaders. per team game played:

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eW/G   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.246   Nikola Jokić  Den   40  .587   28.0  10.9   6.7   1.4   3.3   .9   2.95
.228   Shai G-A      OKC   41  .588   30.6   7.2   6.1   1.1   2.0  2.1   2.65
.200   Jayson Tatum  Bos   40  .556   24.6  10.9   5.7   1.3   2.5   .9   2.38
.189   Ant. Edwards  Min   40  .601   27.6   5.0   5.1   1.4   2.6   .5   2.24
.176   Luka Dončić   Dal   42  .556   23.1   9.7   7.3   1.6   4.2   .4   2.02

.154  Ty. Haliburton Ind   34  .683   24.6   5.1   6.4   1.8   2.0   .9   2.20
.143   Evan Mobley   Cle   37  .648   23.0   9.9   2.7    .9   2.1  1.0   1.86
.134   Jaylen Brown  Bos   36  .665   27.4   7.2   2.9    .4   2.8   .4   1.78
.126   Jalen Brunson  NY   36  .537   26.6   2.6   5.4    .9   2.9   .1   1.66
.126   Karl-A Towns  Min   35  .602   20.8  10.3   3.2    .9   2.1   .5   1.75

eW/G   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.120   Do. Mitchell  Cle   24  .651   31.4   6.2   4.2   1.0   1.3   .0   2.40
.101  Jalen Williams OKC   38  .502   15.2   6.3   5.1   1.6   1.3   .6   1.28
.101  Pascal Siakam  Ind   32  .574   20.3   8.0   2.9   1.0   1.4   .5   1.49
.094   Aaron Gordon  Den   35  .715   17.0   5.9   4.2   1.1   1.4   .9   1.30
.087  Do. DiVincenzo  NY   39  .591   18.4   4.8   2.1   1.4   1.7   .8   1.07

.085   Myles Turner  Ind   32  .646   18.1   7.6   1.8    .7   2.3  2.6   1.30
.085  PJ Washington  Dal   36  .609   17.9   9.0   2.0    .7   1.6   .3   1.15
.082  Daniel Gafford Dal   23  .595   18.2  12.4   2.0    .3   1.9  3.2   1.69
.078  Chet Holmgren  OKC   36  .583   16.0   6.4   1.9   1.0   1.9  2.4   1.04
.075  Derrick White  Bos   33  .526   14.1   5.1   4.9    .4    .5   .9   1.09

[Mike G]

Every one of these stats have something weird to consider, but here they are anyway.
Wins estimated by each, averaged and divided by team games.

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w/Gm    2nd round      tm    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     pWin   WS   bWin  eWin
.211   Shai G-A       OKC   28.1   .247   11.8   2.65     1.20  1.21  1.28  1.37
.206   Nikola Jokić   Den   28.5   .220   11.7   2.95     1.38  1.22  1.44  1.72
.172   Jayson Tatum   Bos   24.5   .224    6.5   2.38      .82   .89   .72  1.00
.159  Anthony Edwards Min   22.5   .184    7.2   2.24     1.02  1.03  1.07  1.32
.153  Ty. Haliburton  Ind   26.3   .230   10.2   2.20     1.04  1.07  1.11  1.08

.139   Luka Dončić    Dal   19.0   .127    7.0   2.02      .71   .63   .93  1.05
.133   Evan Mobley    Cle   23.8   .167    5.7   1.86      .72   .61   .62   .72
.119   Aaron Gordon   Den   20.3   .208    7.1   1.30      .77  1.00   .91   .66
.119   Jaylen Brown   Bos   21.0   .189    2.7   1.78      .60   .68   .44   .67
.112 Donovan Mitchell Cle   27.0   .177   13.3   2.40      .55   .42   .68   .60

w/Gm    2nd round      tm    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     pWin   WS   bWin  eWin
.110   Karl-A Towns   Min   19.0   .174    3.9   1.75      .70   .84   .67   .88
.097   Jalen Brunson  NYK   21.3   .083    1.9   1.66      .85   .42   .56   .88
.092  Jalen Williams  OKC   16.3   .114    3.0   1.28      .52   .51   .57   .61
.092 Donte DiVincenzo NYK   17.9   .109    2.6   1.07      .72   .59   .66   .61
.089  P.J. Washington Dal   15.4   .136    4.1   1.15      .44   .57   .60   .51

.088   Pascal Siakam  Ind   20.4   .139    0.8   1.49      .72   .62   .42   .71
.087   Jrue Holiday   Bos   14.8   .153    2.2    .85      .38   .58   .44   .34
.082   Myles Turner   Ind   19.2   .127    2.2   1.30      .64   .56   .50   .60
.078   Chet Holmgren  OKC   16.0   .113    1.4   1.04      .48   .48   .43   .47
.077  Daniel Gafford  Dal   21.0   .178    4.4   1.69      .46   .49   .41   .49

w/Gm    2nd round      tm    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     pWin   WS   bWin  eWin
.077   Derrick White  Bos   14.3   .153    1.8   1.09      .31   .50   .36   .38
.076   Mike Conley    Min   15.6   .162    4.1   1.24      .42   .63   .56   .51
.075   Alec Burks     NYK   26.6   .286    8.3   1.45      .54   .68   .50   .37

Team totals, by series:

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tm     PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Bos   17.0   .167   2.34   1.21
Cle   13.7   .050   0.41    .79
tot   15.4   .108   1.38   1.00

Ind   17.7   .126   1.55   1.12
NYK   15.9   .084   0.51    .88
tot   16.8   .105   1.03   1.00

tm     PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Min   15.6   .134   2.50   1.16
Den   13.7   .076   1.19    .84
tot   14.6   .105   1.84   1.00

Dal   14.2   .102   2.25   1.00
OKC   15.2   .107   2.19   1.00
tot   14.7   .104   2.22   1.00

BPM says the West series were stronger; PER and WS say the opposite.
Dal and OKC scored the same (636) points in 6 games. Shouldn't they have the same totals?

[Mike G]

Depleted Knicks' progression through long minutes and decline. BPM is shown for regular season, playoffs round 1 and 2.
Other stats concur on the ups and downs.

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. Knicks   mpgR  bpmR   mpg1  bpm1   mpg2  bpm2
Hart        33   0.0     46   2.4     39  -0.6
Brunson     35   5.8     44   5.6     36   1.9
DiVincenzo  29   3.4     32   1.1     39   2.6
Hartenstein 25   3.5     26   1.5     33   1.2
McBride     19  -0.1     23   3.7     30  -5.2

Anunoby     35   0.6     42  -0.5     11   3.4
Achiuwa     24  -1.4      5  -2.2     22  -3.8
Burks       13  -7.8      0    00     17   8.3
Robinson    25   0.0     17  -0.1      2   0.9
Bogdanović  19  -4.9      9  -1.5      0   0.0

Hart and Brunson were pretty beat up in the last couple games, to account for their minutes dropoff.
I just wonder how the Pacers' BPM are affected by the sizable dropoff in Knicks' strength, from the season thru playoffs.

[DSMok1]

Depleted Knicks' progression through long minutes and decline. BPM is shown for regular season, playoffs round 1 and 2.
Other stats concur on the ups and downs.

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. Knicks   mpgR  bpmR   mpg1  bpm1   mpg2  bpm2
Hart        33   0.0     46   2.4     39  -0.6
Brunson     35   5.8     44   5.6     36   1.9
DiVincenzo  29   3.4     32   1.1     39   2.6
Hartenstein 25   3.5     26   1.5     33   1.2
McBride     19  -0.1     23   3.7     30  -5.2

Anunoby     35   0.6     42  -0.5     11   3.4
Achiuwa     24  -1.4      5  -2.2     22  -3.8
Burks       13  -7.8      0    00     17   8.3
Robinson    25   0.0     17  -0.1      2   0.9
Bogdanović  19  -4.9      9  -1.5      0   0.0

Hart and Brunson were pretty beat up in the last couple games, to account for their minutes dropoff.
I just wonder how the Pacers' BPM are affected by the sizable dropoff in Knicks' strength, from the season thru playoffs.

BPM accounts for who is playing for the opponent. It judges the strength of the opponent by their regular season average BPM times their actual minutes played in the game. So it counts for people being out or playing lower minutes, but it does not account for players playing injured.

[Mike G]

BPM accounts for who is playing for the opponent. It judges the strength of the opponent by their regular season average BPM times their actual minutes played in the game. So it counts for people being out or playing lower minutes, but it does not account for players playing injured.

Yes, and I have been generating team BPM to judge which series are more competitive. It's the only stat that accounts for the competition.
And historically most (or all?) players are not as effective beyond a certain number of minutes. For some it may be 30, for others 40. But game after game of overuse will almost certainly dent one's effectiveness.

The Knicks ran their main guys relentlessly in round 1, and by the 2nd round they had to go with their absolute worst player during the regular season -- Alec Burks -- who became absolutely their best player vs. Indiana.

I guess we need a study on how extra playoff minutes affects player proficiency.

[Mike G]

If the Mavs (Dal 3-1 Min) defeat the Wolves in the WCF, then the team higher in the alphabet (by city) will have won 5 of the 7 Western series.
In the East, teams closer to A went 7-0 vs the Z-tending teams.

[Crow]

If you hesitated to support my preference to trade Murray and Porter for more pieces, the last series should be a push.

But very unlikely to actually happen.

And as such, they are not the future favorite and probably fall short again next time. Then maybe support will be enough to trade one or both.


Booth will either largely stand pat with his bench, change moderately or change dramatically. I prefer the latter.

[Mike G]

The ascent of Luka Doncic in these playoffs. Data from saved tables in the playoff threads.
Column 1 is the number of games in the measuring sample, for PER etc.
rd indicates the playoff round(s)

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G    rd    PER    WS/48    BPM    e480
6    1    21.8    .153     4.8    2.67
2    2    18.5    .063     7.7    1.68
3    2    18.4    .085     7.0    1.81
4    2    15.4    .041     5.1    1.66
5    2    18.2    .101     6.8    1.98
6    2    19.0    .127     7.0    2.02
12  1+2   20.3    .140     5.9    2.35
G    rd    PER    WS/48    BPM    e480
1    3    25.9    .167    11.4    2.59
2    3    26.8    .197    11.6    2.42
3    3    28.6    .237    12.5    2.65
4    3    27.3    .230    11.6    2.73
5    3    28.9    .263    12.2    3.30
17  1-3   22.8    .175     7.7    2.62

All agree Luka bottomed out in the OKC series, game 4. Almost continuously uphill since, in all columns.

[Mike G]

I have seen multiple references to "only Doncic and Jordan have career playoff ppg >30"
However a few others have peaked over 30 ppg, before inevitably tailing off later:

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player   yr     ppg   G   age at: 30      32      34      36 
Baylor  1962   33.9   47   27    32.4    31.1    28.3    27.0
Wilt    1964   34.6   36   27    30.4    26.4    25.1    22.5
Oscar   1966   30.3   35   27    29.7    26.7    24.1    22.2
West    1966   31.3   68   27    30.8    30.9    29.3    29.1
Erving  1976   31.1   48   25    27.2    25.7    24.9    24.2
Kareem  1977   30.5   68   29    30.3    30.4    29.1    28.1
Jordan  1988   35.9   20   24    34.7    33.9    33.4        
Iverson 2005   30.6   62   29    30.6    29.7            
Luka    2022   32.5   28   22   (31.0)  (29.6)  (27.7)  (26.0)

This sample includes some who were in more playoffs early or late in their careers. Not necessarily representative or comprehensive, but maybe close.
At age 30-32-34-36 they avg 95-91-85-80% of their peak cumulative ppg; and these % are applied to Luka's future (* 32.5).
LeBron and Durant both peaked around 29 ppg.

[Mike G]

Alternative "standings" for the playoffs. Based on point differential, the cumulative margins. For example, Den lost to Min by avg 5.2; Min lost to Dal by 5.9 -- so Nuggs were cumulatively 11.1 worse than Mavs.

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West  -pts        East  -pts
Dal    0.0        Bos    0.0
OKC    0.2        Orl    3.2
Min    5.9        Ind    6.6
LAC    7.0        Mil    9.1
Den   11.1        NYK   10.8
LAL   13.4        Phl   11.0
NOP   16.3        Cle   12.2
Phx   21.1        Mia   16.3

Yes, the Magics lost by minus-4.5 to the Cavs, who lost by 7.7 to the Celts.

[Crow]

By this method, very few were anywhere close. 2 finalists +1 or maybe 2.

Imo almost eveyone (or everyone) not in Finals should vigorously study options for change / improvement. And in most cases it will not be near enough to achieve ultimate goal next season. So... some should shoot for a more distant future, maybe very distant.

Philly trade Embid? Cavs, Mitchell? Heat, Butler? Suns their entire big 3? Lakers trade everybody? I could mention the Clippers but they have been irrelevant for so long... I am already on record for a Nuggets blow-up of all but 2 (and maybe a few minor pieces).


I should say though that this method will inherently exaggerate the differences from very top to very bottom. Simple transience applies more to winning probability (but not always) than to matchup margins.

[Crow]

What beat the Mavs in this playoffs? In 5 losses, it was great opponent 3pt shooting in all but one case and usually not good to bad own shooting.

Not usual but I'd say rivals should be as sharp as they can be from 3.


Of the 3 opponents this time, Thunder were the clear weakest on hitting series in series despite the overall regular season mark.

More randomness or more being too young, tight and choking in spots? No way to discern at this point. But the need is clear.

[Mike G]

top 40 in the completed postseason, ranked by avg of 4 statistical 'wins'.

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xyzW    player         tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e480    perW    WS    bpmW   eWin
3.60   Luka Dončić    Dal   900   22.5  .149   7.6   2.53    3.40   2.69   3.59   4.74
2.69   Nikola Jokić   Den   482   30.0  .259  12.8   2.92    2.63   2.50   2.70   2.93
2.59   Jayson Tatum   Bos   768   20.1  .167   3.7   1.98    2.48   2.57   2.13   3.16
2.51  Anthony Edwards Min   649   22.5  .172   6.7   2.17    2.45   2.24   2.41   2.93
2.21   Derrick White  Bos   676   18.3  .205   5.3   1.37    1.91   2.78   2.21   1.93

2.17   Kyrie Irving   Dal   879   16.6  .116   2.4   1.31    2.15   2.04   2.09   2.40
1.99   Jaylen Brown   Bos   707   19.1  .133   1.8   1.63    2.13   1.88   1.55   2.40
1.90   Shai G-A       OKC   399   25.5  .233   9.2   2.62    1.77   1.86   1.79   2.18
1.85  Ty. Haliburton  Ind   522   22.0  .169   6.2   1.73    1.91   1.77   1.86   1.88
1.81   Jrue Holiday   Bos   720   15.4  .167   2.8    .97    1.56   2.41   1.80   1.45

xyzW    player         tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e480    perW    WS    bpmW   eWin
1.77   Pascal Siakam  Ind   603   20.7  .140   2.3   1.55    2.03   1.69   1.41   1.94
1.64   Jalen Brunson  NYK   518   22.1  .115   3.8   1.85    1.91   1.19   1.46   2.00
1.59   Karl-A Towns   Min   522   19.2  .155   2.8   1.72    1.58   1.62   1.30   1.87
1.45   Dereck Lively  Dal   462   19.3  .200   3.2   1.38    1.41   1.85   1.21   1.33
1.43   Al Horford     Bos   575   15.0  .170   3.1    .91    1.20   1.96   1.49   1.09

1.40  Daniel Gafford  Dal   445   20.4  .187   2.7   1.48    1.47   1.67   1.10   1.38
1.38 Donovan Mitchell Cle   382   22.2  .120   7.2   2.13    1.42    .92   1.48   1.70
1.31   Myles Turner   Ind   550   17.5  .104   1.8   1.24    1.46   1.15   1.20   1.43
1.30   Aaron Gordon   Den   445   18.2  .175   4.5   1.11    1.25   1.56   1.35   1.03
1.28  Andrew Nembhard Ind   554   16.6  .135   1.2    .99    1.35   1.50   1.11   1.14

xyzW    player         tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e480    perW    WS    bpmW   eWin
1.25   Rudy Gobert    Min   512   16.2  .160   1.1   1.09    1.21   1.64   1.01   1.16
1.19   Evan Mobley    Cle   422   18.9  .136   3.3   1.42    1.25   1.15   1.12   1.24
1.13  Jalen Williams  OKC   377   17.8  .152   3.8   1.63    1.02   1.15   1.06   1.28
1.12  P.J. Washington Dal   785   11.3  .081   0.1    .57     .98   1.27   1.30    .93
1.12   Mike Conley    Min   474   15.0  .134   2.8   1.06     .99   1.27   1.18   1.05

1.10  Joel Embiid     Phl   248   26.3  .193   8.4   2.44    1.15    .96   1.05   1.26
.98   Josh Hart       NYK   548   14.1  .069   0.9    .96    1.03    .76   1.05   1.09
.96  Donte DiVincenzo NYK   466   15.7  .093   2.0    .89    1.04    .87   1.05    .87
.96  Jaden McDaniels  Min   537   13.1  .121   1.6    .44     .89   1.30   1.14    .49
.95   Anthony Davis   LAL   208   26.9  .239   7.3   2.28     .99   1.00    .81    .99

xyzW    player         tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e480    perW    WS    bpmW   eWin
.90   T.J. McConnell  Ind   348   20.0  .104   1.7   1.39    1.12    .73    .75   1.00
.90   LeBron James    LAL   204   26.0  .185  10.6   2.09     .93    .76   1.00    .89
.89   Franz Wagner    Orl   259   17.7  .203   4.9   1.82     .70   1.05    .82    .98
.88   Chet Holmgren   OKC   345   16.4  .140   2.1   1.33     .83    .97    .79    .96
.88   Derrick Jones   Dal   647   11.2  .095   0.4    .28     .79   1.23   1.13    .37

.88   Tyrese Maxey    Phl   267   20.7  .155   5.0   1.70     .90    .83    .85    .95
.88   James Harden    LAC   242   20.5  .173   7.7   1.76     .80    .84    .97    .89
.87   Obi Toppin      Ind   343   18.5  .125   2.6   1.12     .98    .86    .84    .80
.86  Is. Hartenstein  NYK   388   16.4  .126   1.3    .91     .93    .98   .79     .74
.85   Paolo Banchero  Orl   262   18.9  .109   4.7   2.29     .78    .57    .81   1.25