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Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Sat May 18, 2024 12:31 am
by Mike G
They say it's the biggest loss by a defending champion in NBA playoff history.
Ranked by biggest gains (by Wolves) and losses (Den) in
series BPM during this one game (of 6).
Showing GameBPM and gains/losses from their previous 5-game rates.
Code: Select all
. Min mp BPM PER WS/48 BPM . Den mp BPM PER WS/48 BPM
McDaniels 30 20.2 4.6 .109 3.9 Jackson 12 -24.1 -7.5 -.141 -5.0
Morris 9 7.5 1.5 .066 3.4 Holiday 13 -21.4 -3.2 -.068 -2.7
Anderson 11 16.4 2.3 .060 1.9 Braun 18 -12.0 -2.7 -.059 -2.0
Ni. A-W 17 9.9 1.3 .063 1.4 Jokić 36 3.8 -2.0 -.062 -1.4
Edwards 34 14.9 .8 .052 1.0 Porter 31 -7.3 -.9 -.030 -0.7
Conley 31 8.5 .9 .059 0.9 Murray 33 -6.2 -2.1 -.062 -0.5
Gobert 29 1.0 -.3 .028 0.0 Ke. C-P 28 1.5 .3 -.010 0.1
Towns 29 2.4 -.1 .035 -0.1 Gordon 28 12.6 -.2 -.033 0.4
Reid 22 -3.5 -.1 .029 -0.7 Watson 10 -2.3 4.3 .058 4.8
. team 240 7.6 1.0 .052 0.9 . team 240 -2.9 -1.9 -.053 -1.2
Denver bench took the worst of the beating, but there was plenty to go around.
Here are those before and after (5G and 6G) rates:
Code: Select all
. Den PER WS/48 BPM e480 PER WS/48 BPM e480
Jackson 16.9 .098 0.9 .76 9.4 -.043 -4.1 .23
Holiday 10.4 .116 0.0 .20 7.2 .048 -2.7 -.22
Braun 14.2 .152 1.5 .46 11.5 .093 -0.5 .15
Jokić 31.1 .290 12.7 3.31 29.1 .228 11.3 3.02
Porter 8.7 .028 -3.0 .31 7.8 -.002 -3.7 .08
Murray 11.5 .009 -3.5 .88 9.4 -.053 -4.0 .62
Ke. C-P 10.0 .110 0.0 .20 10.3 .100 0.1 .11
Gordon 23.9 .278 9.4 1.87 23.7 .245 9.8 1.82
Watson -5.8 -.248 -16.2 -.15 -1.5 -.190 -11.4 .05
totals 16.0 .132 2.3 1.11 14.1 .079 1.1 .85
. Min PER WS/48 BPM e480 PER WS/48 BPM e480
McDaniels 6.4 -.026 -3.9 -.14 11.0 .083 0.0 .29
Morris 8.7 -.056 -7.5 .07 10.2 .010 -4.1 .41
Anderson 11.9 .061 1.0 .12 14.2 .121 2.9 .45
Ni. A-W 6.8 -.031 -3.4 -.14 8.1 .032 -2.0 -.04
Edwards 24.6 .171 7.8 2.19 25.4 .223 8.8 2.57
Conley 15.7 .110 3.5 1.06 16.6 .169 4.4 1.32
Gobert 15.5 .125 1.1 1.03 15.2 .153 1.1 1.18
Towns 18.4 .125 3.2 1.56 18.3 .160 3.1 1.72
Reid 13.9 .038 0.2 .64 13.8 .067 -0.5 .90
. totals 14.8 .077 1.4 .89 15.8 .129 2.3 1.15
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Sat May 18, 2024 10:15 pm
by Mike G
After 6 games, the Knicks and Pacers have won all of their home games; NY by an avg of 14.3, Ind by 16.7
Those who have played in all 6:
Code: Select all
in Indianapolis in New York
Min e480 eWin Knicks Min e480 eWin
127 .00 .00 Hart 136 1.69 .48
124 .81 .21 DiVincenzo 127 1.06 .28
112 .94 .22 Brunson 119 2.74 .68
105 .23 .05 Hartenstein 107 1.61 .36
71 .41 .06 McBride 53 -.36 -.04
Min e480 eWin Pacers Min e480 eWin
104 2.77 .60 Haliburton 106 1.58 .35
99 2.08 .43 Siakam 106 .95 .21
97 1.93 .39 Turner 99 .58 .12
98 .59 .12 Nesmith 95 -.20 -.04
85 .85 .15 Nembhard 84 .29 .05
62 1.86 .24 McConnell 66 .80 .11
57 1.18 .14 Toppin 58 1.32 .16
42 1.60 .14 Jackson 40 .24 .02
Nobody for NY has been even average ( =1.00 eW/480) in Indy. Only Deuce and Obi have been better on the opponent's floor.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 2:45 am
by Mike G
2nd round eWins leaders. per team game played:
Code: Select all
eW/G per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.246 Nikola Jokić Den 40 .587 28.0 10.9 6.7 1.4 3.3 .9 2.95
.228 Shai G-A OKC 41 .588 30.6 7.2 6.1 1.1 2.0 2.1 2.65
.200 Jayson Tatum Bos 40 .556 24.6 10.9 5.7 1.3 2.5 .9 2.38
.189 Ant. Edwards Min 40 .601 27.6 5.0 5.1 1.4 2.6 .5 2.24
.176 Luka Dončić Dal 42 .556 23.1 9.7 7.3 1.6 4.2 .4 2.02
.154 Ty. Haliburton Ind 34 .683 24.6 5.1 6.4 1.8 2.0 .9 2.20
.143 Evan Mobley Cle 37 .648 23.0 9.9 2.7 .9 2.1 1.0 1.86
.134 Jaylen Brown Bos 36 .665 27.4 7.2 2.9 .4 2.8 .4 1.78
.126 Jalen Brunson NY 36 .537 26.6 2.6 5.4 .9 2.9 .1 1.66
.126 Karl-A Towns Min 35 .602 20.8 10.3 3.2 .9 2.1 .5 1.75
eW/G per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.120 Do. Mitchell Cle 24 .651 31.4 6.2 4.2 1.0 1.3 .0 2.40
.101 Jalen Williams OKC 38 .502 15.2 6.3 5.1 1.6 1.3 .6 1.28
.101 Pascal Siakam Ind 32 .574 20.3 8.0 2.9 1.0 1.4 .5 1.49
.094 Aaron Gordon Den 35 .715 17.0 5.9 4.2 1.1 1.4 .9 1.30
.087 Do. DiVincenzo NY 39 .591 18.4 4.8 2.1 1.4 1.7 .8 1.07
.085 Myles Turner Ind 32 .646 18.1 7.6 1.8 .7 2.3 2.6 1.30
.085 PJ Washington Dal 36 .609 17.9 9.0 2.0 .7 1.6 .3 1.15
.082 Daniel Gafford Dal 23 .595 18.2 12.4 2.0 .3 1.9 3.2 1.69
.078 Chet Holmgren OKC 36 .583 16.0 6.4 1.9 1.0 1.9 2.4 1.04
.075 Derrick White Bos 33 .526 14.1 5.1 4.9 .4 .5 .9 1.09
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 12:06 pm
by Mike G
Every one of these stats have something weird to consider, but here they are anyway.
Wins estimated by each, averaged and divided by team games.
Code: Select all
w/Gm 2nd round tm PER WS/48 BPM e480 pWin WS bWin eWin
.211 Shai G-A OKC 28.1 .247 11.8 2.65 1.20 1.21 1.28 1.37
.206 Nikola Jokić Den 28.5 .220 11.7 2.95 1.38 1.22 1.44 1.72
.172 Jayson Tatum Bos 24.5 .224 6.5 2.38 .82 .89 .72 1.00
.159 Anthony Edwards Min 22.5 .184 7.2 2.24 1.02 1.03 1.07 1.32
.153 Ty. Haliburton Ind 26.3 .230 10.2 2.20 1.04 1.07 1.11 1.08
.139 Luka Dončić Dal 19.0 .127 7.0 2.02 .71 .63 .93 1.05
.133 Evan Mobley Cle 23.8 .167 5.7 1.86 .72 .61 .62 .72
.119 Aaron Gordon Den 20.3 .208 7.1 1.30 .77 1.00 .91 .66
.119 Jaylen Brown Bos 21.0 .189 2.7 1.78 .60 .68 .44 .67
.112 Donovan Mitchell Cle 27.0 .177 13.3 2.40 .55 .42 .68 .60
w/Gm 2nd round tm PER WS/48 BPM e480 pWin WS bWin eWin
.110 Karl-A Towns Min 19.0 .174 3.9 1.75 .70 .84 .67 .88
.097 Jalen Brunson NYK 21.3 .083 1.9 1.66 .85 .42 .56 .88
.092 Jalen Williams OKC 16.3 .114 3.0 1.28 .52 .51 .57 .61
.092 Donte DiVincenzo NYK 17.9 .109 2.6 1.07 .72 .59 .66 .61
.089 P.J. Washington Dal 15.4 .136 4.1 1.15 .44 .57 .60 .51
.088 Pascal Siakam Ind 20.4 .139 0.8 1.49 .72 .62 .42 .71
.087 Jrue Holiday Bos 14.8 .153 2.2 .85 .38 .58 .44 .34
.082 Myles Turner Ind 19.2 .127 2.2 1.30 .64 .56 .50 .60
.078 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.0 .113 1.4 1.04 .48 .48 .43 .47
.077 Daniel Gafford Dal 21.0 .178 4.4 1.69 .46 .49 .41 .49
w/Gm 2nd round tm PER WS/48 BPM e480 pWin WS bWin eWin
.077 Derrick White Bos 14.3 .153 1.8 1.09 .31 .50 .36 .38
.076 Mike Conley Min 15.6 .162 4.1 1.24 .42 .63 .56 .51
.075 Alec Burks NYK 26.6 .286 8.3 1.45 .54 .68 .50 .37
Team totals, by series:
Code: Select all
tm PER WS/48 BPM e480
Bos 17.0 .167 2.34 1.21
Cle 13.7 .050 0.41 .79
tot 15.4 .108 1.38 1.00
Ind 17.7 .126 1.55 1.12
NYK 15.9 .084 0.51 .88
tot 16.8 .105 1.03 1.00
tm PER WS/48 BPM e480
Min 15.6 .134 2.50 1.16
Den 13.7 .076 1.19 .84
tot 14.6 .105 1.84 1.00
Dal 14.2 .102 2.25 1.00
OKC 15.2 .107 2.19 1.00
tot 14.7 .104 2.22 1.00
BPM says the West series were stronger; PER and WS say the opposite.
Dal and OKC scored the same (636) points in 6 games. Shouldn't they have the same totals?
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Fri May 24, 2024 12:35 am
by Mike G
Depleted Knicks' progression through long minutes and decline. BPM is shown for regular season, playoffs round 1 and 2.
Other stats concur on the ups and downs.
Code: Select all
. Knicks mpgR bpmR mpg1 bpm1 mpg2 bpm2
Hart 33 0.0 46 2.4 39 -0.6
Brunson 35 5.8 44 5.6 36 1.9
DiVincenzo 29 3.4 32 1.1 39 2.6
Hartenstein 25 3.5 26 1.5 33 1.2
McBride 19 -0.1 23 3.7 30 -5.2
Anunoby 35 0.6 42 -0.5 11 3.4
Achiuwa 24 -1.4 5 -2.2 22 -3.8
Burks 13 -7.8 0 00 17 8.3
Robinson 25 0.0 17 -0.1 2 0.9
Bogdanović 19 -4.9 9 -1.5 0 0.0
Hart and Brunson were pretty beat up in the last couple games, to account for their minutes dropoff.
I just wonder how the Pacers' BPM are affected by the sizable dropoff in Knicks' strength, from the season thru playoffs.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Fri May 24, 2024 11:23 am
by DSMok1
Mike G wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 12:35 am
Depleted Knicks' progression through long minutes and decline. BPM is shown for regular season, playoffs round 1 and 2.
Other stats concur on the ups and downs.
Code: Select all
. Knicks mpgR bpmR mpg1 bpm1 mpg2 bpm2
Hart 33 0.0 46 2.4 39 -0.6
Brunson 35 5.8 44 5.6 36 1.9
DiVincenzo 29 3.4 32 1.1 39 2.6
Hartenstein 25 3.5 26 1.5 33 1.2
McBride 19 -0.1 23 3.7 30 -5.2
Anunoby 35 0.6 42 -0.5 11 3.4
Achiuwa 24 -1.4 5 -2.2 22 -3.8
Burks 13 -7.8 0 00 17 8.3
Robinson 25 0.0 17 -0.1 2 0.9
Bogdanović 19 -4.9 9 -1.5 0 0.0
Hart and Brunson were pretty beat up in the last couple games, to account for their minutes dropoff.
I just wonder how the Pacers' BPM are affected by the sizable dropoff in Knicks' strength, from the season thru playoffs.
BPM accounts for who is playing for the opponent. It judges the strength of the opponent by their regular season average BPM times their actual minutes played in the game. So it counts for people being out or playing lower minutes, but it does not account for players playing injured.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Fri May 24, 2024 12:22 pm
by Mike G
DSMok1 wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 11:23 am
BPM accounts for who is playing for the opponent. It judges the strength of the opponent by their regular season average BPM times their actual minutes played in the game. So it counts for people being out or playing lower minutes, but it does not account for players playing injured.
Yes, and I have been generating
team BPM to judge which series are more competitive. It's the only stat that accounts for the competition.
And historically most (or all?) players are not as effective beyond a certain number of minutes. For some it may be 30, for others 40. But game after game of overuse will almost certainly dent one's effectiveness.
The Knicks ran their main guys relentlessly in round 1, and by the 2nd round they had to go with their absolute worst player during the regular season -- Alec Burks -- who became absolutely their best player vs. Indiana.
I guess we need a study on how extra playoff minutes affects player proficiency.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:37 pm
by Mike G
If the Mavs (Dal 3-1 Min) defeat the Wolves in the WCF, then the team higher in the alphabet (by city) will have won 5 of the 7 Western series.
In the East, teams closer to A went 7-0 vs the Z-tending teams.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:42 pm
by Crow
If you hesitated to support my preference to trade Murray and Porter for more pieces, the last series should be a push.
But very unlikely to actually happen.
And as such, they are not the future favorite and probably fall short again next time. Then maybe support will be enough to trade one or both.
Booth will either largely stand pat with his bench, change moderately or change dramatically. I prefer the latter.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Fri May 31, 2024 2:01 pm
by Mike G
The ascent of Luka Doncic in these playoffs. Data from saved tables in the playoff threads.
Column 1 is the number of games in the measuring sample, for PER etc.
rd indicates the playoff round(s)
Code: Select all
G rd PER WS/48 BPM e480
6 1 21.8 .153 4.8 2.67
2 2 18.5 .063 7.7 1.68
3 2 18.4 .085 7.0 1.81
4 2 15.4 .041 5.1 1.66
5 2 18.2 .101 6.8 1.98
6 2 19.0 .127 7.0 2.02
12 1+2 20.3 .140 5.9 2.35
G rd PER WS/48 BPM e480
1 3 25.9 .167 11.4 2.59
2 3 26.8 .197 11.6 2.42
3 3 28.6 .237 12.5 2.65
4 3 27.3 .230 11.6 2.73
5 3 28.9 .263 12.2 3.30
17 1-3 22.8 .175 7.7 2.62
All agree Luka bottomed out in the OKC series, game 4. Almost continuously uphill since, in all columns.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Sat Jun 01, 2024 12:19 pm
by Mike G
I have seen multiple references to "only Doncic and Jordan have career playoff ppg >30"
However a few others have peaked over 30 ppg, before inevitably tailing off later:
Code: Select all
player yr ppg G age at: 30 32 34 36
Baylor 1962 33.9 47 27 32.4 31.1 28.3 27.0
Wilt 1964 34.6 36 27 30.4 26.4 25.1 22.5
Oscar 1966 30.3 35 27 29.7 26.7 24.1 22.2
West 1966 31.3 68 27 30.8 30.9 29.3 29.1
Erving 1976 31.1 48 25 27.2 25.7 24.9 24.2
Kareem 1977 30.5 68 29 30.3 30.4 29.1 28.1
Jordan 1988 35.9 20 24 34.7 33.9 33.4
Iverson 2005 30.6 62 29 30.6 29.7
Luka 2022 32.5 28 22 (31.0) (29.6) (27.7) (26.0)
This sample includes some who were in more playoffs early or late in their careers. Not necessarily representative or comprehensive, but maybe close.
At age 30-32-34-36 they avg 95-91-85-80% of their peak cumulative ppg; and these % are applied to Luka's future (* 32.5).
LeBron and Durant both peaked around 29 ppg.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Sat Jun 01, 2024 3:11 pm
by Mike G
Alternative "standings" for the playoffs. Based on point differential, the cumulative margins. For example, Den lost to Min by avg 5.2; Min lost to Dal by 5.9 -- so Nuggs were cumulatively 11.1 worse than Mavs.
Code: Select all
West -pts East -pts
Dal 0.0 Bos 0.0
OKC 0.2 Orl 3.2
Min 5.9 Ind 6.6
LAC 7.0 Mil 9.1
Den 11.1 NYK 10.8
LAL 13.4 Phl 11.0
NOP 16.3 Cle 12.2
Phx 21.1 Mia 16.3
Yes, the Magics lost by minus-4.5 to the Cavs, who lost by 7.7 to the Celts.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Sat Jun 01, 2024 4:34 pm
by Crow
By this method, very few were anywhere close. 2 finalists +1 or maybe 2.
Imo almost eveyone (or everyone) not in Finals should vigorously study options for change / improvement. And in most cases it will not be near enough to achieve ultimate goal next season. So... some should shoot for a more distant future, maybe very distant.
Philly trade Embid? Cavs, Mitchell? Heat, Butler? Suns their entire big 3? Lakers trade everybody? I could mention the Clippers but they have been irrelevant for so long... I am already on record for a Nuggets blow-up of all but 2 (and maybe a few minor pieces).
I should say though that this method will inherently exaggerate the differences from very top to very bottom. Simple transience applies more to winning probability (but not always) than to matchup margins.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Sat Jun 01, 2024 10:34 pm
by Crow
What beat the Mavs in this playoffs? In 5 losses, it was great opponent 3pt shooting in all but one case and usually not good to bad own shooting.
Not usual but I'd say rivals should be as sharp as they can be from 3.
Of the 3 opponents this time, Thunder were the clear weakest on hitting series in series despite the overall regular season mark.
More randomness or more being too young, tight and choking in spots? No way to discern at this point. But the need is clear.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Wed Jun 19, 2024 10:08 am
by Mike G
top 40 in the completed postseason, ranked by avg of 4 statistical 'wins'.
Code: Select all
xyzW player tm min PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eWin
3.60 Luka Dončić Dal 900 22.5 .149 7.6 2.53 3.40 2.69 3.59 4.74
2.69 Nikola Jokić Den 482 30.0 .259 12.8 2.92 2.63 2.50 2.70 2.93
2.59 Jayson Tatum Bos 768 20.1 .167 3.7 1.98 2.48 2.57 2.13 3.16
2.51 Anthony Edwards Min 649 22.5 .172 6.7 2.17 2.45 2.24 2.41 2.93
2.21 Derrick White Bos 676 18.3 .205 5.3 1.37 1.91 2.78 2.21 1.93
2.17 Kyrie Irving Dal 879 16.6 .116 2.4 1.31 2.15 2.04 2.09 2.40
1.99 Jaylen Brown Bos 707 19.1 .133 1.8 1.63 2.13 1.88 1.55 2.40
1.90 Shai G-A OKC 399 25.5 .233 9.2 2.62 1.77 1.86 1.79 2.18
1.85 Ty. Haliburton Ind 522 22.0 .169 6.2 1.73 1.91 1.77 1.86 1.88
1.81 Jrue Holiday Bos 720 15.4 .167 2.8 .97 1.56 2.41 1.80 1.45
xyzW player tm min PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eWin
1.77 Pascal Siakam Ind 603 20.7 .140 2.3 1.55 2.03 1.69 1.41 1.94
1.64 Jalen Brunson NYK 518 22.1 .115 3.8 1.85 1.91 1.19 1.46 2.00
1.59 Karl-A Towns Min 522 19.2 .155 2.8 1.72 1.58 1.62 1.30 1.87
1.45 Dereck Lively Dal 462 19.3 .200 3.2 1.38 1.41 1.85 1.21 1.33
1.43 Al Horford Bos 575 15.0 .170 3.1 .91 1.20 1.96 1.49 1.09
1.40 Daniel Gafford Dal 445 20.4 .187 2.7 1.48 1.47 1.67 1.10 1.38
1.38 Donovan Mitchell Cle 382 22.2 .120 7.2 2.13 1.42 .92 1.48 1.70
1.31 Myles Turner Ind 550 17.5 .104 1.8 1.24 1.46 1.15 1.20 1.43
1.30 Aaron Gordon Den 445 18.2 .175 4.5 1.11 1.25 1.56 1.35 1.03
1.28 Andrew Nembhard Ind 554 16.6 .135 1.2 .99 1.35 1.50 1.11 1.14
xyzW player tm min PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eWin
1.25 Rudy Gobert Min 512 16.2 .160 1.1 1.09 1.21 1.64 1.01 1.16
1.19 Evan Mobley Cle 422 18.9 .136 3.3 1.42 1.25 1.15 1.12 1.24
1.13 Jalen Williams OKC 377 17.8 .152 3.8 1.63 1.02 1.15 1.06 1.28
1.12 P.J. Washington Dal 785 11.3 .081 0.1 .57 .98 1.27 1.30 .93
1.12 Mike Conley Min 474 15.0 .134 2.8 1.06 .99 1.27 1.18 1.05
1.10 Joel Embiid Phl 248 26.3 .193 8.4 2.44 1.15 .96 1.05 1.26
.98 Josh Hart NYK 548 14.1 .069 0.9 .96 1.03 .76 1.05 1.09
.96 Donte DiVincenzo NYK 466 15.7 .093 2.0 .89 1.04 .87 1.05 .87
.96 Jaden McDaniels Min 537 13.1 .121 1.6 .44 .89 1.30 1.14 .49
.95 Anthony Davis LAL 208 26.9 .239 7.3 2.28 .99 1.00 .81 .99
xyzW player tm min PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eWin
.90 T.J. McConnell Ind 348 20.0 .104 1.7 1.39 1.12 .73 .75 1.00
.90 LeBron James LAL 204 26.0 .185 10.6 2.09 .93 .76 1.00 .89
.89 Franz Wagner Orl 259 17.7 .203 4.9 1.82 .70 1.05 .82 .98
.88 Chet Holmgren OKC 345 16.4 .140 2.1 1.33 .83 .97 .79 .96
.88 Derrick Jones Dal 647 11.2 .095 0.4 .28 .79 1.23 1.13 .37
.88 Tyrese Maxey Phl 267 20.7 .155 5.0 1.70 .90 .83 .85 .95
.88 James Harden LAC 242 20.5 .173 7.7 1.76 .80 .84 .97 .89
.87 Obi Toppin Ind 343 18.5 .125 2.6 1.12 .98 .86 .84 .80
.86 Is. Hartenstein NYK 388 16.4 .126 1.3 .91 .93 .98 .79 .74
.85 Paolo Banchero Orl 262 18.9 .109 4.7 2.29 .78 .57 .81 1.25