APBRmetrics

Nuggets bench entirely off to horrible start this season.

Was bad last season with 1-2 meh at best.


Almost every change possible should be considered. Maybe / maybe not for immediate action but start the review.

Wizards and Blazers in mix of bottom 3. Jazz weren't as sure to be there but worst of all right now.

9 over +4 net rating, 10 between +4 and -4, 11 below -4.

Despite the talk of allowing more physical play or because of it, 25 teams are shooting more FTAs per game than last season league average. Thunder's greatly reduced foul rate is a major story if it can last.

5 of 6 bottom 6 on FTAs / gm are supposed contenders. Missing out. Hawks and Sixers cashing in at huge rates. Both have 8 over league average rate so it isn't just star.

League steal rate at moment is a 25 year high (against season averages).

League offensive rating currently clearly below last 2 season record highs.

Warriors 2nd on OR%. Celtics 7th. TWolves 24th, Thunder 26th, Bucks 28th, Suns 29th.

4 teams above 80% DReb% including Lakers and Magic. 5 below 70% including Sixers, Griz and Heat.

7 really elite offenses, 7 really elite defenses. 2 with both: Warriors and Cavs. Magic close. Celtics, 14th on defense. But is it affected by garbage time?

Edey with early issues with fouls, defensive rebounding, defense, FT%.

But almost all the rookies have issues, specific and overall. All the top 15 2024 draftees who've played are -4 to way way worse on BPM. Only 4 in entire draft above +0.1 and only one of those in meaningful mimutes (Mogbo). Results will improve but bad general start. Did summer league, training camp and pre-season help? Not near enough. Only one thing is the real thing. And then playoffs will be the real real later.

K George, Carrington, C Williams, Buzelis and Risacher form bottom 5 with more than 20 minutes. All guys I was way way lower on than consensus.

Ryan Dunn at almost -1 is 4th best with minutes.

Knecht 3rd. I was way higher on him than actual draft rank.

Mogbo with incredible OR%, steal% and block%. Shooting from field is subpar but not horrible.

Every Warrior had positive team +/- on the court before tonight. 1 strong, the rest very strong.

The bench way outperforming the starters.

Kings mid-range frequency down to less crazy 42%. Still high though.

Usually I wait til about 10 games to note trends. Better then but whatever, warmup.

Celtics at 56% 3pta frequency. TWolves also over 50% and a half dozen fairly close. Last season Celtics were 47% and only one over 45%. 37% will still put you about 7th lowest but now almost twice as far below league average. Magic, Lakers and Nuggets were in that bottom tier last season. Magic and Nuggets move up. Lakers have not. Short of 35%, slightly less than last season. That might turn into a story soon. Noticed here at game 3.

A few new facts make me wonder if Bonga has an NBA out and if any NBA team would consider.

New info also helping Kessler, Dosunmu, Boucher, D Smith, Mikal Bridges, D White, D Daniels...

New info greatly harming case of Jalen Green, L Walker, Siakam, J Holiday, D Russell, Kuminga, Maxey, Randle, Sexton, Aldama, Reed, Gobert, S Barnes, Cole Anthony, Melton, Hartenstein, Hart...

Carson Edwards washes out of NBA after modest trial. Now leading scorer in Euroleague.
T Maledon washes out, becomes 4th leading scorer over there...

Draft implications to me... of at least one kind, maybe two. First may not be obvious or acceptable to all.

Hollinger notices the foul issue.

https://t.co/4oDZ6a8OO6

whether matchup hunting actually leads to efficient NBA offense

In case you hadn't seen yet.

Lakers hot from 3 tonight but take just 31 attempts. Inch closer to the bottom on frequency.

Spurs yr to yr:

Major shift away from 3pta rate (slightly above average to way below), while ft rate went opposite direction with similar sized and scaled shift. Assists plummet from very top to bottom third?

Factors go from 2 strong, 6 weak to 3 strong, 3 near average, 2 weak. Modest improvement in shooting, further descent to next to bottom on to%. Offensive rebounding makes major improvement, defensive rebounding slips. Opponent to% gets slimmer while foul rate goes up like with most.

Net margin cut by 1/3rd but 2/3rds the distance to just neutral remains.

Wembanyama has a -0.5 BPM. Negative on both sides of court.

A handful of role players are doing well but rest of team is bad to horrible.

Vassell is supposed to be #2. #3? Can't say who it will be but it has not been and is not Sochan thus far.

Chris Paul hitting 3s but 22% from 2. TO per 100p nearly double last season.

Griz reach 95 lineups used in 5 games. Only 1 more than twice and only 3 times of 5. Only 4 used twice total. 91 used once.

Insanity.

Still early, but all the league average trends noted after 2-3 games have endured thru 5+.

But what happens in regular season is not necessarily what will happen in playoffs.

Recent playoff trends?

Less 3s allowed & lower 3pt fg%
Less FTAs
Less steals / turnovers
Slower pace

6 teams above 60% ts%. Cavs at 64%. Thunder just a bit below league average now.

4 teams above 30% OReb%. 3 below 20%.

3 teams in top 10 on pace have winning records so far, 4 in the middle 10, 3 in the bottom 10.

Last season it was 5 in top 10, 6 in middle, 7 in bottom 10.

Pace doesn't seem much correlated with winning but maybe slightly negative.

But... if number of teams with winning records were to expand by 80% to match last season that would seem to dramatically go against current regression in BRef projections.

Teams below 40% win may or may not drop from current level (which is a bit higher than last season's final count), depending on impact of top teams and degree of tanking.

Only 2 teams finished last season between 55% and 45% win, making simple regression appear a fairly dubious assumption on its own.