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Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2025 11:29 pm
by Crow
This adjustment was fast enough to deserve acceptance, imo.
The detailed explanation was sufficient.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2025 12:21 am
by Mike G
As usual I've taken the averages of APBR guesstimates for each team and will include that (avgA) in the contest updates.
The average guess for the Sixers is 37.4 wins, with an enormous range from 31.7 (WinShares) to 47.4 (mediocre).
That +10.0 difference for medi is the biggest one in the field. Here are the entries and the teams on which they have the highest or lowest guesses, with distance from avgA:
Code: Select all
DQin Hou+8 Ind+7 Bos+7 OKC+6 Phx+5 Mem+5
. NY-5 Orl-7 Cha-7 Det-8 Tor-9
medi Phl+10 Por+7 Min+5 Cle+5 Sac-5 Phx-6
EBET NYK+5 LAL+4 Chi-4 Uta-5
Crow Chi+6 Det+3 Atl-4 Mia-8
KPel GS+8 Sac+5 Tor+4 Mil+3 Was-6 Brk-8
DRKO Was+5 Uta+4 Cle+4 Mem-5 LAL-5
EExp Atl+5 OKC-5
Mgoo
dtka LAC+4
eWin Orl+6 Tor+4 Mia+4 Cle-4 Ind-4 Den-4 Bos-6
bpmW
WShr Brk+8 Mil-4 NO-4 SA-4 Phl-6
perW Dal+8 SA+7 Den+4 NO+2
. Cle-4 Hou-4 OKC-5 Min-5 Por-6 GS-6
Walr Cha+6 Uta+4 LAC-3 Dal-6
Again sorted by avg deviation from 41.
There are a handful of ties -- defined as within 0.1 -- but all are rounded to integers.
Using
Pelton minutes, WShr is 8 wins above avgA on the Nets, while KPel is 8 below. Amazing?
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Oct 24, 2025 10:47 pm
by knarsu3
I don't know if it's too late but my win projections are here:
https://x.com/knarsu3/status/1980768011549061572
spreadsheet link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1870481632
I did actually post them before the season started (twitter link has the time) but I know Mike G is strict on submissions.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Oct 24, 2025 11:13 pm
by Crow
I saw the on-time publication and given that, this request, previous participation in contest and board and leadership in analytic community in general and the intended friendliness of this contest, I consider the request reasonable and acceptable.
Participation is encouraged and would only be discouraged or refused in the case of improper behavior.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2025 1:19 am
by DQuinn1575
I agree
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2025 4:52 pm
by Mike G
knar is excluded from this update only
After 1 or 2 games, advantage is clearly to the timid.
Code: Select all
. avg err avg err
7.17 Walr 7.93 WShr
7.34 eWin 8.25 KPel
7.59 perW 8.68 Crow
7.65 bpmW 9.05 EBET
7.67 Mgoo 9.42 medi
7.69 DRKO 10.19 25Py
7.73 EExp 10.25 DQin
7.81 dtka 11.12 2025
b-r.com projections range from 47.9 (Mil) down to 30.8 (Dal).
These correspond to alleged SRS of +15.4 and -23.2
The current dummies are unregressed, straight 2025 wins and Pythag. The 50% regressed versions would still be in the bottom half.
UPDATE Oct. 26
2-3 games in, Mia and Por, both 1-1, lead their conferences in SRS.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
Walr 6.93 8.8 25pr 8.01 9.4
knar 7.03 8.7 perW 8.16 9.9
EExp 7.32 9.0 WShr 8.17 9.8
eWin 7.38 9.3 Crow 8.36 10.4
bpmW 7.65 9.4 KPel 8.55 10.3
DRKO 7.68 9.2 vegas 8.57 10.7
Mgoo 7.73 9.6 25re 8.72 10.5
avgA 7.74 9.5 medi 8.94 10.7
dtka 7.80 9.3 DQin 10.53 12.3
knarsu replaces Walrus with smallest ave-dev.
avgA does not include dummies, EExp, or vegas.
'25 regressed and
'25 pythagorean regressed are 75% last year and 25% =41.
UPDATE Oct 27 because it's fascinating the daily changes at this point in the season.
Heat vs Spurs, most likely Finals matchup -- currently 9%
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
knar 7.75 9.2 bpmW 8.67 10.2
Walr 7.85 9.5 25pr 8.78 10.3
DRKO 8.13 9.6 WShr 8.91 10.5
EExp 8.15 9.8 Crow 9.10 11.2
perW 8.36 10.0 medi 9.44 11.7
avgA 8.45 10.1 vegas 9.44 11.5
eWin 8.49 9.9 25re 9.67 11.4
dtka 8.64 10.2 KPel 9.72 11.5
Mgoo 8.65 10.2 DQin 11.23 13.1
At 2-3 games, correlations all are under .20, r^2 are nil. One corr. is subzero.
note: The East is currently 20-23 vs the West. This W% (.465) is close to the avg of our E/W predictions (.476)
Every entry likes the West by at least a 42-40 avg -- the avg avg is 43.0 - 39.0
Somehow, b-r.com projections avg 42.5 - 39.5
in favor of the East.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2025 7:02 pm
by DQuinn1575
hi,
can you list who abbreaviation is for?
Thanks
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2025 12:29 am
by Mike G
Key to Abbreviations:
knar - knarsu3
Walr - Walrus
DRKO - DARKO (by kmedved)
- next 5 submitted by myself:
WShr - Win Shares
perW - PER Wins
bpmW - BPM Wins
eWin - eWins by yours truly
Mgoo - me again, subjective/intuitive
dtka - dtkavana (Crafted NBA)
Crow - Crow
medi - mediocre
KPel - ESPN's Kevin Pelton, founder of this site
DQin - DQuinn1575
avgA - average of all entries but EExp, vegas, and 'dummies' (currently 25re and 25pr)
vegas - aka ESPN BET, see the Kevin Pelton link
EExp - ESPN Experts
25re - 2025 wins regressed
25pr - 2025 Pythagorean-expected wins, regressed
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2025 12:45 pm
by Mike G
Big improvements overnight.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
knar 6.92 8.8 WShr 7.83 9.8
DRKO 7.02 8.8 bpmW 7.87 9.6
Walr 7.13 8.9 Mgoo 7.88 9.7
EExp 7.43 9.1 Crow 8.00 10.5
avgA 7.64 9.4 25re 8.52 10.6
25pr 7.66 9.4 medi 8.66 10.7
perW 7.69 9.7 KPel 8.72 10.7
eWin 7.72 9.6 vegas 8.79 10.7
dtka 7.80 9.3 DQin 10.25 12.3
"Errors" are relative to b-r.com's current projections. Comparing these to our average predictions, ranked by overachievement to date -- thru just 3 or 4 games:
Code: Select all
over tm avgA b-r over tm avgA b-r
19.3 Uta 24.0 43.3 -19.9 OKC 62.7 42.8
18.0 Cha 30.2 48.2 -13.8 Dal 45.6 31.8
15.0 Was 20.5 35.5 -11.0 Min 46.7 35.7
11.9 Phl 37.2 49.1 -10.7 Atl 43.4 32.7
11.7 Mia 37.3 49.0 -9.8 Orl 48.9 39.1
9.1 Chi 35.4 44.5 -9.5 Ind 39.3 29.8
8.4 Por 36.1 44.5 -6.6 Den 50.6 44.0
8.3 Brk 25.7 34.0 -5.8 Mem 42.8 37.0
5.6 SAS 42.5 48.1 -5.6 LAC 49.3 43.7
2.8 Bos 43.1 45.9 -5.3 Hou 49.7 44.4
1.6 Mil 41.2 42.8 -4.6 Cle 53.0 48.4
1.2 NOP 32.8 34.0 -4.2 GSW 48.3 44.1
0.8 NYK 48.3 49.1 -3.7 LAL 44.0 40.3
0.7 Det 42.8 43.5 -1.5 Tor 36.8 35.3
. -1.4 Sac 38.2 36.8
. -1.3 Phx 33.9 32.6
over avg 35.5 43.7 under avg 45.8 38.7
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2025 7:35 pm
by Crow
BRef projections look highly regressed this early. None projected over 50 and none under about 30? Final distribution is likely to be considerably wider.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:48 pm
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Tue Oct 28, 2025 7:35 pm
BRef projections look highly regressed this early. None projected over 50 and none under about 30? Final distribution is likely to be considerably wider.
Yes, it's always this way, and I think b-r.com projections have gotten more consistent in the last couple years.
The Hornets are winning by 12.6 ppg, which would put them on track to win 64 if they keep it up. The 48 seen above is probably a lot closer to where they will close.
This year I have made a conscious effort to keep those entries under my control close to the avg distribution. The regressed 2025 wins and Pyth wins are 75% last year's numbers + 25% =41. Their ave-dev falls into the 7-8 range this way, roughly where everyone else averages. If it were 50-50, they'd be among the leaders at this stage of the season.
Most of those holding down the bottom of the 'standings' now are perennial contenders who will be expected to improve steadily as the league reaches equilibrium. As they say, the cream rises.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2025 3:16 pm
by Mike G
Not much change in the standings or the overall errors, so here is a first installment of leaders at various exponents.
Normal updates show e = 1 (MAE) and e = 2 (RMSE)
Code: Select all
e = .25-- e = 2 e = 2.8 e = 10 e = 60++
5.38 knar 8.69 Walr 9.78 DRKO 13.6 EExp 17.0 dtka
5.40 avgA 8.79 knar 9.84 EExp 14.0 dtka 17.1 EExp
5.74 Walr 8.84 DRKO 9.84 knar 14.1 eWin 17.2 eWin
6.23 EExp 8.91 EExp 9.88 Walr 14.2 knar 17.9 Mgoo
6.27 Crow 9.23 dtka 10.14 dtka 14.6 Mgoo 18.3 knar
6.34 DRKO 9.29 avgA 10.31 avgA 14.6 DRKO 18.4 avgA
These are maximum separations between #1 and #2 in the interval where #1 is #1.
Below .25 and above 60, the gap just gets bigger; hence the -- and ++
Dummy entries are not included in this ^ survey. The one where every team is predicted at 41 wins is currently the leader at every exponent, and by wide margins.
UPDATE Oct. 30
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
Walr 7.30 9.0 bpmW 7.83 9.6
DRKO 7.34 9.1 eWin 7.88 9.9
25pr 7.43 9.1 dtka 7.92 9.4
EExp 7.56 9.3 25re 8.27 10.3
avgA 7.73 9.6 perW 8.29 10.1
knar 7.74 9.2 medi 8.35 10.5
WShr 7.74 9.7 KPel 8.48 10.4
Crow 7.78 10.5 vegas 8.63 10.7
Mgoo 7.82 9.9 DQin 9.90 12.1
Last year's log started on this date, with WinShares on top at 5.70 MAE
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2025 2:12 pm
by Mike G
Overnight improvements of .10 to .52, averaging .36 lower.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
Walr 6.87 8.39 .20 eWin 7.51 9.18 .11
DRKO 6.89 8.29 .21 bpmW 7.57 8.95 .16
25pr 7.05 8.62 .18 dtka 7.66 8.85 .16
EExp 7.14 8.59 .19 perW 7.71 9.39 .10
knar 7.23 8.51 .14 25re 7.90 9.70 .14
avgA 7.44 8.86 .00 vegas 8.21 9.89 .20
Mgoo 7.46 9.10 .15 medi 8.26 9.89 .22
Crow 7.47 9.73 .17 KPel 8.28 9.75 .17
WShr 7.50 9.16 .13 DQin 9.75 11.49 .08
Four games last night: Wins by Orl and OKC helped, as did losses by Cha, Was, and Mia.
The other winners, SAS and Mil, and loss by GSW, were only bad for some.
UPDATE - New month, new leader
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 6.99 8.4 .20 WShr 7.83 9.4 .11
Walr 7.17 8.7 .18 dtka 7.90 9.1 .14
25pr 7.28 9.0 .14 Crow 7.94 9.7 .17
knar 7.29 8.5 .15 perW 7.99 9.4 .11
EExp 7.37 8.7 .18 25re 8.11 10.1 .11
Mgoo 7.62 9.1 .16 vegas 8.43 9.9 .20
eWin 7.63 9.2 .12 KPel 8.44 9.8 .16
avgA 7.72 9.0 .16 medi 8.69 10.1 .19
bpmW 7.72 9.0 .16 DQin 9.93 11.7 .07
Last year at this time, there was
1 entry within 1.00 of the leader and 5 within 2.00.
This year it's 10 @<1 and all-but-one within 2. Not counting the dummies.
UPDATE Nov. 2 -- huge improvements overnight
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 6.25 7.9 .27 perW 7.10 8.8 .18
knar 6.47 7.8 .23 dtka 7.16 8.5 .21
Walr 6.56 8.1 .25 WShr 7.24 8.6 .20
EExp 6.77 8.1 .25 Crow 7.26 9.2 .24
avgA 6.84 8.3 .25 vegas 7.60 9.2 .29
bpmW 6.84 8.2 .26 25re 7.69 9.4 .17
25pr 6.86 8.4 .22 KPel 7.77 9.1 .25
Mgoo 6.88 8.4 .25 medi 8.16 9.4 .28
eWin 6.92 8.5 .20 DQin 9.36 10.9 .14
The East was cooperative last night: Mil, Bos, Cha, and Was all lost, while Ind and Det won. Only the Det and Bos results hurt anyone.
NOTE: I just noticed knarsu was not included in the avgA (APBR average) error. Now they are.
K Pelton is in avgA and presumably also in ESPNExperts; a dual citizen.
UPDATE Nov. 3
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 6.22 7.7 .31 dtka 6.86 8.1 .27
EExp 6.42 7.7 .33 perW 7.12 8.6 .21
Walr 6.47 7.7 .31 WShr 7.16 8.4 .24
knar 6.58 7.7 .26 Crow 7.22 8.7 .31
eWin 6.64 8.3 .24 25re 7.23 9.1 .23
bpmW 6.69 7.9 .31 vegas 7.36 8.6 .37
Mgoo 6.71 8.1 .30 KPel 7.50 8.7 .30
25pr 6.75 8.2 .26 medi 7.99 9.0 .34
avgA 6.76 7.9 .30 DQin 9.35 10.7 .17