APBRmetrics

Posted: **Fri May 13, 2011 9:54 pm**

Does anyone else separate stats by playoff series, or is it still just this here?

Posted: **Fri May 13, 2011 9:59 pm**

I'm not clear on what you're asking. I've been putting up stats for each series on my blog, but not here.

Posted: **Fri May 13, 2011 10:12 pm**

Arturo does it too on his site, taken to win equivalents. Others post series stats but usually not taken to win equivalents. I'd have to check the B-R blog again to see what they've done.

Posted: **Sat May 14, 2011 8:43 am**

I don't know who Arturo is, and b-r.com blog gives series "previews" which are just regular season stats.

Evan, your profile doesn't contain a link. I don't see signatures any more.

Posted: **Sat May 14, 2011 6:49 pm**

http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/

http://thecity2.com/

(I put these sites in the linkage thread previously.)

I thought basketball-reference's blog might do it with Win Shares, but not so far. Would be welcome. Maybe it was done in the past. The values are still available to be looked up for the teams on their pages as series progress.

Posted: **Sat May 14, 2011 7:19 pm**

eW per game based on the May 12 data by position:

(one may differ with the primary position given to some tweeners)

eW/G Center
.148 Gasol,Marc
.092 Noah,Joakim
.067 Gasol,Pau
.059 Bynum,Andrew

eW/G PF
.192 Nowitzki,Dirk
.127 Randolph,Zach
.116 Smith,Josh
.106 Garnett,Kevin
.095 Bosh,Chris
.081 Horford,Al
.072 Boozer,Carlos
.062 Gibson,Taj
.058 Ibaka,Serge

eW/G SF
.204 James,Lebron
.165 Durant,Kevin
.104 Pierce,Paul
.072 Deng,Luol

eW/G SG
.240 Wade,Dwyane
.150 Terry,Jason
.103 Harden,James
.090 Johnson,Joe
.078 Bryant,Kobe
.073 Allen,Ray

eW/G PG
.238 Rose,Derrick
.169 Westbrook,Russel
.095 Barea,JJ
.091 Teague,Jeff
.070 Kidd,Jason
.066 Rondo,Rajon
.061 Conley,Mike

Chicago has 5; Dallas, OKC, Atlanta and Boston with 4.

Posted: **Sat May 14, 2011 7:24 pm**

Mike G wrote:I don't know who Arturo is, and b-r.com blog gives series "previews" which are just regular season stats.

Evan, your profile doesn't contain a link. I don't see signatures any more.

Ah, good point. I forgot about that after the great hack.

Posted: **Mon May 16, 2011 8:29 pm**

Final 2nd Round leaders, in eWins per game.

Code: Select all

eW/G    per36 rates     tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.240   Wade,Dwyane     Mia   41   .599   32.8   7.6   5.2   3.0   1.8   2.7   .5   2.82
.238   Rose,Derrick    Chi   42   .511   32.1   4.6   9.0    .9    .7   3.1   .7   2.75
.204   James,Lebron    Mia   45   .543   25.7   8.3   3.8   2.0   1.5   2.8  1.5   2.20
.192   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   38   .664   32.3   9.8   3.2   1.7    .7   1.7   .5   2.45
.176  Westbrook,Russel Okl   37   .503   24.0   5.4   9.7   3.3   1.7   4.7   .4   2.39

.156   Durant,Kevin    Okl   41   .556   23.6   8.4   1.6   2.4    .6   2.0   .9   1.92
.150   Terry,Jason     Dal   31   .745   32.7   2.8   5.6   1.4   1.4   1.1   .6   2.34
.135   Randolph,Zach   Mem   42   .495   18.3  11.1   1.4   3.0    .7   1.9   .9   1.65
.122   Gasol,Marc      Mem   39   .542   14.5   9.9   2.1   2.8   1.5   1.7  2.5   1.58
.116   Smith,Josh      Atl   39   .423   13.7   9.4   4.1   3.0    .9   1.9  2.7   1.44

.109   Harden,James    Okl   32   .626   18.2   5.5   5.6   2.7   1.4   2.1  1.1   1.74
.106   Garnett,Kevin   Bos   38   .450   12.9  11.7   2.1   3.8   1.7   1.3  1.1   1.33
.104   Pierce,Paul     Bos   38   .563   20.9   6.2   3.4   3.1    .8   2.7   .4   1.32
.095   Bosh,Chris      Mia   38   .485   12.6  12.2   1.8   2.1   1.0   1.5  1.0   1.20
.095   Barea,Jose_Juan Dal   18   .582   27.9   2.1  14.3    .5    .0   1.9   .0   2.52

eW/G    per36 rates     tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.092   Noah,Joakim     Chi   35   .500    8.5  13.7   3.3   3.6    .8    .8  1.7   1.26
.091   Teague,Jeff     Atl   41   .603   17.3   2.7   3.9   1.6   1.1    .9   .5   1.06
.090   Johnson,Joe     Atl   42   .611   20.3   2.3   2.6   1.4   1.7   1.9   .0   1.03
.081   Horford,Al      Atl   38   .500   11.0   9.9   3.8   2.7    .2   1.5  1.3   1.02
.078   Bryant,Kobe      LA   37   .514   22.3   3.2   2.2   1.7   1.7   2.7   .2   1.01

.073   Allen,Ray       Bos   40   .651   17.1   3.3   2.7   2.6    .9    .9   .0    .87
.072   Conley,Mike     Mem   40   .481   13.2   3.1   6.3   2.4   1.2   2.2   .3    .93
.072   Deng,Luol       Chi   45   .513   12.5   6.7   1.8   1.6    .5    .5   .8    .77
.072   Boozer,Carlos   Chi   31   .523   15.1  12.3   1.9   3.1    .2   1.9   .0   1.12
.070   Kidd,Jason      Dal   32   .425    8.7   4.0  13.2   3.1   2.3   4.3   .6   1.05

Posted: **Tue May 17, 2011 12:32 pm**

Memphis Grizzlies' summaries, vs the Spurs (6 G) and the Thunder (7 G).
Under 'e480' vs Okl, it's really eW/509 minutes. 1.00 is still avg.

Code: Select all

per36 rates opp  eWins  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
Allen,Tony  SAS   .26   27   .486   12.5   3.9   3.3   4.1   3.2   2.5   .4    .76
Allen,Tony  Okl   .09   27   .463   10.9   4.5   1.6   5.0   2.2   2.6   .6    .23
Allen,Tony  tot   .34   27   .474   11.6   4.2   2.4   4.6   2.6   2.5   .5    .48
                                    
Arthur,Dar  SAS   .24   17   .565   17.0   6.0   1.2   3.9    .7   2.0  2.9   1.18
Arthur,Dar  Okl   .07   15   .431   12.3   4.3   1.4   6.2   1.7   2.1  1.0    .36
Arthur,Dar  tot   .32   16   .497   14.6   5.1   1.3   5.1   1.2   2.0  2.0    .76
                                    
Battier,Sh  SAS   .11   27   .609    8.2   5.6   2.0   2.7    .8    .6   .4    .32
Battier,Sh  Okl  -.05   25   .429    4.5   5.6   1.4   2.8    .6    .6   .8   -.15
Battier,Sh  tot   .05   26   .515    6.3   5.6   1.7   2.8    .7    .6   .6    .07

per36 rates opp  eWins  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
Conley,Mike SAS   .52   39   .457   13.0   4.6   7.3   3.3    .8   2.1   .2   1.08
Conley,Mike Okl   .51   40   .481   13.2   3.1   6.3   2.4   1.2   2.2   .3    .93
Conley,Mike tot  1.02   39   .470   13.2   3.8   6.8   2.8   1.0   2.2   .2   1.00
                                    
Gasol,Marc  SAS   .68   40   .559   13.9  11.9   2.3   3.5    .5   2.0  1.3   1.36
Gasol,Marc  Okl   .85   39   .542   14.5   9.9   2.1   2.8   1.5   1.7  2.5   1.58
Gasol,Marc  tot  1.54   40   .550   14.2  10.8   2.2   3.1   1.0   1.8  1.9   1.48
                                    
Mayo,O.J.   SAS   .10   23   .482   13.1   3.2   3.0   5.0    .7   2.0   .0    .36
Mayo,O.J.   Okl   .38   33   .503   13.2   4.7   3.4   3.4   1.3   1.4   .6    .84
Mayo,O.J.   tot   .48   28   .495   13.2   4.1   3.3   4.0   1.1   1.6   .4    .66

per36 rates opp  eWins  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
Randolph,Z  SAS  1.05   37   .558   23.7   9.6   3.9   3.5   1.3   2.0   .5   2.25
Randolph,Z  Okl   .94   42   .495   18.3  11.1   1.4   3.0    .7   1.9   .9   1.65
Randolph,Z  tot  1.99   40   .523   20.7  10.5   2.5   3.2   1.0   1.9   .7   1.91
                                    
Vasquez,Gr  SAS   .19   10   .658   17.7   4.9   6.8   2.6   1.0   2.6   .5   1.50
Vasquez,Gr  Okl   .21   12   .544   14.6   4.6   6.3   2.6   1.3   1.7   .4   1.31
Vasquez,Gr  tot   .40   11   .593   15.9   4.7   6.5   2.6   1.2   2.1   .5   1.39
                                    
Young,Sam   SAS   .18   22   .551   15.9   4.7    .3   2.8    .8   1.4   .5    .65
Young,Sam   Okl  -.07   18   .378    6.6   4.4    .3   2.4    .9    .9   .3   -.27
Young,Sam   tot   .11   20   .467   11.4   4.5    .3   2.6    .9   1.1   .4    .21

Just 2 of 9 players (Mayo and Gasol) were better in the 2nd round. Conley and Vasquez were consistent.

Posted: **Tue May 17, 2011 3:04 pm**

eWins leaders through the first 2 rounds.

Code: Select all

eWins   rounds 1-2      tm   G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
2.42   Rose,Derrick    Chi  11   40   .516   30.7   4.6   8.2   1.7   1.4   3.3   .8   2.63
2.26   Wade,Dwyane     Mia  10   39   .558   29.0   8.0   5.7   2.4   1.6   2.7  1.2   2.75
2.21   James,Lebron    Mia  10   44   .557   25.3   8.9   5.1   1.8   1.1   2.0  1.1   2.45
2.11   Durant,Kevin    Okl  12   42   .579   26.7   6.9   2.3   2.6    .7   1.7   .9   2.09
2.07   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal  10   38   .601   31.8   9.2   3.1   2.1    .6   2.6   .5   2.61

2.00  Westbrook,Russel Okl  12   37   .499   24.5   5.7   8.8   3.4   1.3   4.5   .4   2.25
1.99   Randolph,Zach   Mem  13   40   .523   20.7  10.5   2.5   3.2   1.0   1.9   .7   1.91
1.65   Howard,Dwight   Orl   6   43   .648   33.2  14.9    .4   3.6    .6   4.7  1.6   3.06
1.54   Gasol,Marc      Mem  13   40   .550   14.2  10.8   2.2   3.1   1.0   1.8  1.9   1.48
1.26   Smith,Josh      Atl  12   37   .443   15.2   9.1   3.0   3.3   1.1   2.2  1.8   1.38

1.21   Paul,Chris       NO   6   42   .650   24.1   6.5  10.1   1.6   1.6   3.2   .0   2.33
1.21   Terry,Jason     Dal  10   32   .642   26.0   2.5   4.8   1.7   1.2   1.6   .2   1.80
1.17   Noah,Joakim     Chi  11   33   .525   12.5  13.3   2.8   4.4    .9   1.3  2.4   1.56
1.15   Bryant,Kobe      LA  10   35   .527   25.7   4.2   3.9   2.4   1.7   3.2   .3   1.56
1.12   Bosh,Chris      Mia  10   39   .509   16.4  10.4   1.3   2.0    .9   1.6  1.0   1.37

eWins   rounds 1-2      tm   G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.10   Harden,James    Okl  12   31   .602   16.1   6.0   4.9   3.1   1.4   1.9  1.1   1.47
1.08   Garnett,Kevin   Bos   9   36   .472   15.2  12.1   3.0   3.0   1.9   2.1  1.0   1.59
1.05   Kidd,Jason      Dal  10   34   .551   12.9   5.3   9.7   2.4   1.8   2.7   .5   1.50
1.05   Johnson,Joe     Atl  12   41   .521   18.3   4.3   3.0   1.4   1.0   2.3   .1   1.01
1.05   Deng,Luol       Chi  11   43   .513   15.0   6.2   2.9   1.8   1.1   1.0   .5   1.06

1.04   Bynum,Andrew     LA  10   32   .584   19.1  13.2   1.0   3.8    .6   2.3  1.6   1.56
1.02   Conley,Mike     Mem  13   39   .470   13.2   3.8   6.8   2.8   1.0   2.2   .2   1.00
1.02   Rondo,Rajon     Bos   9   38   .498   14.4   5.6  10.4   1.7   1.1   3.5   .0   1.42
1.01   Pierce,Paul     Bos   9   38   .567   22.3   5.3   3.0   3.2   1.3   2.6   .4   1.41
.98    Horford,Al      Atl  12   39   .454   10.5   9.6   3.5   2.6    .4   1.3  1.0   1.00

.94   Allen,Ray        Bos   9   40   .696   20.9   3.7   2.4   2.1   1.1   1.0   .1   1.24
.92   Boozer,Carlos    Chi  11   31   .488   15.5  12.9   2.5   3.7    .5   2.5   .3   1.29
.90   Gasol,Pau         LA  10   36   .487   13.5   9.4   4.3   3.4    .4   1.7  1.7   1.21
.80   Crawford,Jamal   Atl  12   30   .499   19.5   1.6   2.9   1.6    .9   1.5   .4   1.07
.72   Ginobili,Manu     SA   5   29   .569   25.3   4.5   4.5   2.7   2.7   3.6   .6   1.99

eWins   rounds 1-2      tm   G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.71   Ibaka,Serge      Okl  12   29   .507   11.0  10.2    .4   5.0    .3   1.6  4.6   1.01
.67   Anthony,Carmelo   NY   4   39   .495   24.4  10.0   4.1   3.7   1.2   3.0   .7   2.06
.65   Aldridge,Lamarcu Por   6   43   .492   16.3   6.9   1.1   2.7   1.1   1.3  1.4   1.20
.64   Wallace,Gerald   Por   6   38   .548   15.9   9.8   2.6   3.1   1.3   2.4   .5   1.36
.63   Parker,Tony       SA   6   37   .520   20.8   2.8   5.4   1.7   1.3   3.3   .3   1.36

.62   Nelson,Jameer    Orl   6   36   .444   13.9   4.8   6.0   2.4   2.1   1.4   .0   1.39
.62   Granger,Danny    Ind   5   37   .551   22.5   5.5   3.1   2.4   1.2   1.4   .2   1.62
.61   Odom,Lamar        LA  10   29   .518   15.3   9.3   2.8   3.0    .2   1.8   .5   1.02
.61   Marion,Shawn     Dal  10   31   .471   11.6   8.7   3.4   2.6   1.0   2.0   .9    .94
.60   Duncan,Tim        SA   6   35   .494   13.1  11.7   3.0   3.0    .5   3.1  2.6   1.37

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2011 4:41 pm**

Looking at the leader list here, here is the sum of the top 3-4 guys on the list by team:

Atlanta- 4 guys sum to 4.1 wins, or 68% of their actual win total.

Boston- 4 guys sum to 4.1 wins, or 82% of their actual win total.

Chicago- 4 guys sum to 5.6 wins, or 70% of their actual win total thru 2 rounds.

Dallas- 4 guys sum to 4.9 wins, or 61% of their actual win total thru 2 rounds.

Lakers- 4 guys sum to 3.7 wins, or 93% of their actual win total.

Memphis- 3 guys sum to 4.6 wins, or 66% of their actual win total.

Miami- 3 guys sum to 5.6 wins, or 70% of their actual win total thru 2 rounds.

OKC- 4 guys sum to 5.9 wins, or 74% of their actual win total thru 2 rounds.

The average eWins from these top 3-4 Stars as a % of the actual wins thru 2 rounds for those who played 2+ rounds is about 75%.

Teams with the least "top Star" winning impact delivered in this playoffs? The Pacers with only Granger and the Knicks with only Anthony appearing on the top Star eWin impact list and both at just about 2/3rds of a eWin. New Orleans and Portland got almost twice as much but just 1.2-1.3 eWins from "top Stars" is still a major issue for these teams knocked out of the 1st round. But there are some issues with them not doing enough but more so with the lack of adequate 2nd, 3rd and 4th win-producing, supporting players.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2011 8:28 pm**

It's got to be a b*** for Dallas that Haslem recovered just in time for the (conference) finals. He will definitely make life harder for Dirk. Although Dirk will probably still get his points. I suspect Marion and Terry to struggle though. This time Dallas doesn't even have homecourt advantage. Wade will shot 15 free throws per game, you will read about the shady officiating on Cuban's blog until 2015. Miami wins the next 5 championsships and the NBA becomes utterly boring

(Actually I think Wade will shoot less free throws because of Chandler)

Posted: **Fri May 27, 2011 9:24 am**

At some point I'm going to do a study on whether offensive efficiency drops when players are in the game for too long. In these playoffs it feels that every team that collapsed in the 4th quarter, which seemed to happen a lot of times, simply rode their star players way too much in the second half and/or 4th quarter. At some point these players, even if they're superstars, just have to be mentally fatigued I think. At that point it's not surprising when they cough up bad turnovers or start to have bad shot selection. I think in one OKC game the same 5 man unit played the entire 4th quarter, losing the quarter by 15; then the exact same unit played the entire overtime. Hm

Posted: **Fri May 27, 2011 9:49 am**

You're right, and this is historically a feature of younger/newer coaches.
Knowing when/how to change the lineup is what separates the great ones.
In general, sticking with proven substitution patterns is best, occasionally doing something novel. But no substitution? Nah.

Posted: **Fri May 27, 2011 2:37 pm**

If anyone wants to "estimate" (R)APM from the playoffs, I made a quick regression using 3-yr RAPM and 3-yr advanced stats.

Offense had an R^2 of .6, Defense of .4. I combined the two sets of coefficients, however.
All variables were at p<.05

Intercept is zero.

Code: Select all

coefficient	value
TRB%     	    3.282424852
ORB%	        -1.704972232
DRB%	        -1.550130287
STL%	         1.12274153
ORTGxUsg	     1.062903376
USG%	        -0.945778193
TS% out of 100 -0.361792241
BLK%	         0.247314245
eFG% out of 100 0.135585541
ORTG	         0.085543135
TOV%	         0.078829447
DRTG	        -0.03634377

APBRmetrics

2011 Playoff summaries

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