APBRmetrics

Posted: **Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:42 pm**

I'm not your typical Miami fan trust me.

One of the best things about this forum is that most of us are fans of the game as a whole and are able to put aside our biases. APBRmetrics, like sabermetrics, is about the analysis of basketball using objective evidence. Fanboy arguments are best left to another forum.

Posted: **Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:46 pm**

Crow wrote:Sorry "Dude" your analysis of my analysis seems off in several ways to me. I predicted at least a bit less regular season wins for the Heat than Vegas and even fewer than the greatest enthusiasts and was more right than they were. I don't recall saying much about the Heat during the series against the Celtics and Bulls. If you think I said something terribly wrong then don't just make a sweeping unsupported charge, please find those statements and post them and show you analysis of the same topics at the time or in retrospect. I am still working on why teams win and lose in the post-season but I work at that and I think I have a decent perspective on what to consider and what to consider important.

Crow, forgive me I just like saying Dude, I was referring to our regular season discussions. You tried to equate the 09-10 Cavs to the 10-11 Heat in several, several instances.

The forum was hacked so I'm not sure those posts exist now, but you equated losing close to losing like the Cavs did. I think that's wrong, but I do respect your positions in general, just not always.

Yes, you do have a decent perspective that is true.

Posted: **Mon Jun 13, 2011 7:03 pm**

Ok.

I debated whether to focus on or throw back "Dude" specifically. But not the central issue.

I might be able to find posts on the Heat from both of us. I might look for them later. I don't right now recall what I said about LeBron in Cleveland or where exactly we disagreed but it would seem worthwhile to have at least looked at that data for clues.

You don't have to agree with me. I can make mistakes in content and mistakes in phrasing. But if somebody thinks I am way wrong I'd like to have some specifics to review and maybe respond to. At least I have a general lead on that now.

I do recall drawing attention to the Heat's performance against top teams in the regular season, especially early the season. I never said it was a certain fatal flaw just that it seemed notable and potentially concerning. They got much better as the regular season went along. They did well in the playoffs.

In my gut I still wonder if performance against top teams in the regular season is at least a bit more important than other games. I don't think it is a question simply and finally resolved at this point with a "no", in general or specifically with the Heat. The Heat getting to the Finals but then falling 4-2 doesn't fully support either perspective completely. The Mavs with the 2nd best record against the top 10 teams beat the Heat with the 6th best record against such teams. There were some upsets by this criteria in the lower rounds (including Heat victories over Boston and Chicago) but when it came down to the ultimate test the better team against top 10 teams won the prize, as they usually do.

Posted: **Mon Jun 13, 2011 7:09 pm**

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.33  Wade,Dwyane     Mia   39   .600   31.7   7.6   5.5   2.2   1.4   2.4  1.6   2.74
.95   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   40   .527   25.7  10.1   2.5   2.3    .6   2.6   .6   1.88
.62   James,Lebron    Mia   44   .535   16.0   6.8   6.9   2.7   1.4   3.3   .4   1.14
.61   Terry,Jason     Dal   33   .593   24.0   2.4   4.4   1.8   1.4   1.4   .0   1.51

.42   Chandler,Tyson  Dal   37   .604   12.4  10.2    .9   4.0   1.2    .5  1.2    .89
.40  Stevenson,Deshaw Dal   17   .808   29.1   3.9   1.0   3.4   1.5    .4   .4   1.87
.39   Chalmers,Mario  Mia   29   .607   18.4   3.7   5.0   2.6   1.8   2.0   .0   1.09
.39   Marion,Shawn    Dal   36   .516   15.2   7.7   3.4   2.3    .9   2.5   .7    .88
.37   Bosh,Chris      Mia   39   .485   16.7   7.9   1.2   2.3    .3   2.0   .5    .76

.29   Kidd,Jason      Dal   37   .575    9.3   5.2   8.5   1.0   1.2   3.5   .8    .62
.24   Barea,Jose      Dal   22   .453   14.1   4.4   7.9   2.9    .9   2.6   .0    .90

Kidd and Barea totaled 50 mpg thru the first 3 series, and then 59 in the Finals; often in a 3-guard lineup.
Bosh slipped to #4 for Miami, while Chalmers was singularly resurgent.

Does any other metric support the notion that Wade was a lot more valuable than Nowitzki?
I don't recall another recent instance of the biggest contributor being on the losing team.
Billups may have been better than Duncan in '05 Finals, but probably not.
Billups and Shaq were very close in '04.
Jordan and Kemp are a tossup in '96.
Isiah and Drexler very close in 1990.
Might take Julius over Magic / Kareem in '82, or not.
Here we go: In the '74 Finals, Kareem was far and away the best player; but he didn't win Finals mvp.

Posted: **Mon Jun 13, 2011 7:11 pm**

Crow wrote:Ok.

I debated whether to focus on or throw back "Dude" specifically. But not the central issue.

I might be able to find posts on the Heat from both of us. I might look for them later. I don't right now recall what I said about LeBron in Cleveland or where exactly we disagreed but it would seem worthwhile to have at least looked at that data for clues.

You don't have to agree with me. I can make mistakes in content and mistakes in phrasing. But if somebody thinks I am way wrong I'd like to have some specifics to review and maybe respond to. At least I have a general lead on that now.

Crow I realize this is a more educated forum, I'll be more formal with you.

I do like most of your positions don't be mistaken.

Posted: **Mon Jun 13, 2011 7:24 pm**

For those nostalgic for 2006

Code: Select all

eW   2006 Finals  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.53  Wade       Mia   44   .572   29.0   6.5   3.4   2.9   2.1   2.9   .8   2.81
.89   Nowitzki   Dal   44   .530   18.3   8.8   2.1   2.7    .5   1.7   .5   1.62
.60   Terry      Dal   40   .552   19.5   2.0   3.3   1.6   1.6   2.2   .0   1.20
.60   O'Neal     Mia   35   .532   14.1  10.9   3.2   3.8    .5   3.3   .9   1.36
.45   Howard     Dal   39   .481   13.8   7.7   1.8   4.0   1.1   2.3   .6    .93

.36   Stackhouse Dal   30   .469   16.2   4.3   4.0   2.5   1.0   2.8   .8   1.16
.36   Walker     Mia   37   .456   13.7   5.6   2.3   2.8    .7   2.0   .5    .78
.35   Mourning   Mia   11   .711   17.4  13.3    .0   9.4   1.3   2.7  6.1   2.53
.29   Dampier    Dal   25   .679    9.0  13.1    .6   5.8   1.6   2.1  1.1    .95
.25   JWilliams  Mia   31   .483   10.8   2.2   6.1   1.8    .6   1.6   .0    .65

eW  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.17   Griffin    Dal   14   .563    9.4  10.2   2.8   6.9   2.6   1.6   .0    .99
.10   Daniels    Dal    9   .644   15.6   2.7   7.6   6.3    .0   3.6   .0    .96
.08   Harris     Dal   25   .431   11.8   1.3   4.7   5.5   1.3   2.9   .0    .27
.07   Posey      Mia   29   .599    8.4   7.9    .5   4.7   1.3   1.5   .0    .19
.02   Diop       Dal   16   .525    4.3   9.0    .5  10.2    .9   1.3  2.2    .10

-.02  Haslem     Mia   29   .483    7.7   8.2    .5   5.3   1.5   3.0   .0   -.06
-.04  Payton     Mia   22   .394    4.7   3.6   3.9   4.1   1.8   1.8   .0   -.13
-.04  Van Horn   Dal    7   .318    8.1   7.2    .0   5.9    .0   3.5   .0   -.48

Eff% - Mia .559 - .540 Dal
Reb/G - Mia 43.8 - 41.8 Dal
TO/G - Mia 15.8 - 14.3 Dal
avg score Mia 92.8 - 91.8 Dal

Posted: **Mon Jun 13, 2011 7:57 pm**

Ok. I prefer to stick to content discussion. It doesn't have to be stuffy and it doesn't have to be softballed though. Most conversations here are fairly civil in comparison to some wilder places but things sometimes will get a bit heated even if in the context of educated or formal discussion. (Pun not originally intended, but left in.) Might be better to avoid but it sometimes happens and folks may go at it a bit and then perhaps adjust if it seems proper. I have a preference for discussion of facts and analysis and opinion without a lot of added emotional zing but it can drift into responses and volleys.

I don't see myself as an expert on the Heat. The Heat being tired and perhaps hurt a bit is probably part of the story. The Coach probably made some errors, maybe some decisive ones. We can agree on that much.

There may be more to the story than that IMO. I probably won't spend a lot of time dissecting and discussing further why they didn't win. I couldn't resist at least casually following a few storylines and clues. I decided to make my few recent comments as follow-up to my past comments. Not seeing those comments as the whole story, but as part of (hopefully) a conversation.

Posted: **Mon Jun 13, 2011 8:01 pm**

"For those nostalgic for 2006"

The Ewins numbers for Wade, Nowitzki and Terry were pretty similar then and now.

One could say the rest of the casts decided the outcomes then and now.

"Does any other metric support the notion that Wade was a lot more valuable than Nowitzki?"

Many metrics do not have playoff only data available. I haven't run across any others showing Wade as clearly more valuable yet, but I've just started looking. Some estimates from Evan Z. or bbstats or DSMok1 might be coming later. Traditional APM for just the playoffs at basketballvalue estimated Dirk as having the far bigger team impact. WinShares has them in a virtual deadheat on playoff impact. PER gives Wade a 1 point lead.

In the regular season Win Score gave Dirk the advantage (probably in good part via defensive rebounds) but on Alternate Win Score at hoopdata the edge shifted to Wade.

Posted: **Mon Jun 13, 2011 8:27 pm**

Wade was just as great this time around, but he wasn't equal to Dirk + Jet.
Terry needed just 33 mpg to get the same eWins he got in 40 min. the last time.
Nowitzki got more eW in fewer minutes.

LeBron averaged almost 44 minutes, but that's not unusual for a 26 year old superplayer.
In '08 and '09, Kobe averaged 43 in the Finals.
Both Wade and Dirk went 44 in '06.
In '04, Kobe went 46, Shaq 43, Rip 44.
In '03, both Duncan and Kidd went 44 mpg.
In '02, 5 players averaged 40+ (Kobe 44).
2001: Iverson 47, Kobe 47, Shaq 45, Mutombo 42
2000: Shaq 46, Rose and Miller 43
'99 : Duncan 46, Spree and Houston 44
Jordan MPG in Finals: 44 (Magic 46), 42 (Porter 44), 46 (Majerle 47, Barkley 46), 42 (Payton 46), 43, 42 (age 35).
Shaq and Hakeem both averaged 45 in '95. Horry 47.
Hakeem and Ewing 43 and 44 in '94.

Posted: **Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:06 pm**

For those you didn't see it before, there was more commentary about James' minutes, fatigue, clutchness, and past performance against the Dallas defense here in Jeff Fogle's article and the follow-up discussion.
http://hoopdata.com/blogengine/post/201 ... eBron.aspx

Posted: **Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:45 pm**

I have Wade as far and away the most valuable player of the series with 1.76 WARP.

Code: Select all

TEAM	NAME	WARP
MIA	Dwyane Wade	1.76
DAL	Tyson Chandler	1.03
MIA	Mario Chalmers	0.63
DAL	Jason Kidd	0.53
DAL	Dirk Nowitzki	0.50
DAL	Shawn Marion	0.45
DAL	Jason Terry	0.45
DAL	DeShawn Stevenson	0.45
MIA	LeBron James	0.36
MIA	Mike Bibby	0.19
MIA	Juwan Howard	0.10
MIA	Eddie House	0.06
DAL	Brendan Haywood	0.04
MIA	Udonis Haslem	0.02
DAL	Jose Barea	-0.04
DAL	Brian Cardinal	-0.10
DAL	Ian Mahinmi	-0.10
MIA	Mike Miller	-0.10
MIA	Joel Anthony	-0.20
MIA	Chris Bosh	-0.24
DAL	Peja Stojakovic	-0.24

I tend to take stats for these short series with a large grain of salt, though.

Posted: **Mon Jun 13, 2011 10:56 pm**

Wade big over Dirk in this series on your metric, but might also be worth pointing out that Dirk had a small lead thru round 3 on your metric according to a post on your blog.

Did Wade's surge or Dirk's fall in the series compared to earlier rounds on your metric come mostly heavily from offense, defensive or rebounding?

Posted: **Mon Jun 13, 2011 11:30 pm**

Found one thread where hk and I discussed Miami and winning a title.

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/vi ... .php?t=203

Dallas' 2nd place ranking adds another title winner who was very high on regular season record against the top 10 to that side of the ledger.

Miami was 6th against the top 10 this year. Considering the slow start of a drastically changed team they might have made the top 3 after the first month or two. They might in the future.

It might not have been the clearest and easiest criteria to separate the two team this year because of Miami's circumstances but it still seems like something worth considering, using to some extent, watching in the future.

Title winners very rarely fall outside the top 3 of win% against the top 10 and overall. And this season both Dallas and Miami each fully met one criteria and were pretty or very close on the other. So now it is 10 of the last 11 seasons that has happened. A really dominate team did not clearly announce themselves as such ahead of the time by these measures as they sometimes do with bigger performance margins (not just rank) over the other contenders on one or both.

Posted: **Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:00 am**

Crow wrote:Wade big over Dirk in this series on your metric, but might also be worth pointing out that Dirk had a small lead thru round 3 on your metric according to a post on your blog.

Did Wade's surge or Dirk's fall in the series compared to earlier rounds on your metric come mostly heavily from offense, defensive or rebounding?

My last post just refers to the Finals series. Isn't that what MVP is given for? Or is it for the entire playoffs? I guess I always assumed it was the former.

Posted: **Tue Jun 14, 2011 6:19 am**

I think you are right that the MVP is officially for the Finals but voters can and will do what they want.

They almost always given it to a winning player but they gave it to a losing player at least once (Jerry West) but maybe only once (I didn't check all of them).

Checking a few really good and bad lineups in the playoffs overall for the finalists it doesn't appear that their raw or Adjusted +/- performance was a simple guide to its greater or lesser use in the finals. It is not surprising that it is not that simple and it probably shouldn't be but it is still a starting point observation.

Spoelstra stopped using one bad lineup but appears to have gone ahead with or increased usage of another bad one.

Dallas actually stopped using or cut back on a few good lineups in the finals but rode one pretty hard. Kidd- Terry- Marion- Nowitzki- Chandler was +44 total and about +18 per 48 minutes in the series. If the Mavs stay the same teams probably should think about the best way to match-up with that. Maybe that lineup got lucky or got a good roll but I'd rather assume it was pretty or really good than to set on existing plans and not plan hard specifically to try to be in good shape to beat it (and of course other top teams and lineups). I assume some of the best teams will plan hard against it. Some maybe more than others.

A real short look at the lineup data in the playoffs and regular season suggests to me that this big edge producing Dallas lineup might have been most effectively combated by lineups with 3 "guards" (true guards or guard-skilled SFs) who can shoot or score (probably at least 2 with good 3 pt games) and a mobile PF (usually with the ability to score from the outside). Portland often did well against it in the playoffs and a few Miami lineups did too. Miami probably didn't get enough from the 3rd "guard" in general and probably 3 pt game from the perimeter in general too. A strong defense is always an asset and you have to beat the best Dallas lineup to win the overall match-up then it may be that your best chance is to able to score well and often against the zone and especially in crunch-time. Some contenders are better suited for this than others.

A full and really fair review of teams and players would of course require a lot more digging and reviewing before the weighing and summing and assigning of credit and blame and assigning of strategic and tactical priority.

APBRmetrics

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