2012-13 Rookies

[Mike G]

At the 40% point of the season, rookies project to 68 eWins.

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e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
7.6   Lillard,Damian  Por   38   .530   18.7   3.5   6.0   1.0   3.0   .2  1.18
5.0  Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha   27   .539   14.3   8.6   2.1   1.1   2.2  1.6  1.10
4.7   Drummond,Andre  Det   20   .558   12.4  12.9    .7   1.4   1.3  2.5  1.42
4.4   Shved,Alexey    Min   28   .522   15.1   3.6   5.7    .9   2.9   .4   .93
4.1   Davis,Anthony   NOH   32   .524   16.3  10.7    .6   1.1   1.9  2.2  1.29

3.7   Beal,Bradley    Was   31   .465   15.7   4.3   2.7   1.1   1.8   .6   .76
3.3  Valanciunas,Jona Tor   22   .553   13.4   9.1   1.8    .5   2.2  1.8  1.03
3.2   Barnes,Harrison GSW   25   .492   13.1   6.4   2.0    .9   1.6   .3   .73
2.8   Waiters,Dion    Cle   31   .446   16.2   3.0   3.5   1.5   2.3   .2   .70
2.5   Sullinger,Jared Bos   18   .513   10.0  10.2   1.3    .8   1.2   .8   .81

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
2.2  Nicholson,Andrew Orl   14   .556   18.0   7.5    .8    .7   1.8   .8   .95
2.0   Singler,Kyle    Det   28   .511   11.2   5.2   1.2    .7   1.3   .6   .42
2.0   Prigioni,Pablo  NYK   14   .526    8.0   3.6   7.3   2.3   2.5   .1   .85
1.9   Zeller,Tyler    Cle   25   .465   10.6   8.0   1.1    .7   2.0   .9   .50
1.7   Roberts,Brian   NOH   16   .500   15.3   2.2   4.3   1.0   2.1   .1   .62

1.5  Harkless,Maurice Orl   18   .471    7.7   7.8    .8   1.4   1.0  1.8   .60
1.5   Henson,John     Mil   11   .491   14.6  10.5   1.3    .8   1.5  1.6  1.14
1.4   Leonard,Meyers  Por   17   .598    9.7   7.4    .3    .6   1.3  1.5   .53
1.2   Ross,Terrence   Tor   18   .499   13.2   4.2   1.3   1.2   1.2   .5   .44
1.2   Decolo,Nando    SAS   12   .567   11.6   4.6   5.0   1.2   3.3   .3   .67

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.1   Crowder,Jae     Dal   18   .454   10.2   4.8   1.9   1.8   1.3   .3   .40
1.1   Ezeli,Festus    GSW   16   .442    6.1   9.8    .6    .8   2.3  2.2   .43
1.0   Copeland,Chris  NYK   12   .583   19.7   3.0   1.0    .7   1.5   .9   .78
0.9   Green,Draymond  GSW   15   .375    5.9   8.2   1.7   1.6   1.4   .6   .36
0.8   Robinson,Thomas Sac   15   .448    8.5   8.0   1.3   1.2   2.6  1.0   .35

0.8   James,Bernard   Dal   11   .531    9.7   9.6    .3    .6   1.3  2.6   .77
0.8   Taylor,Jeffery  Cha   24   .499    9.6   3.8   1.2   1.2   1.1   .3   .21
0.6   Rivers,Austin   NOH   27   .409    9.2   3.3   2.9    .8   1.9   .2   .14
0.5   Jenkins,John    Atl    8   .647   17.3   4.0   2.2    .2   2.0   .3   .74
0.5   O'Quinn,Kyle    Orl    5   .536   10.6   9.3   2.4    .3   1.6  2.9  1.03

[Crow]

Drummond at -0.3 on xRAPM. I think that is the rookie best right now. Some others are just a bit south of -1.

[talkingpractice]

Drummond at -0.3 on xRAPM. I think that is the rookie best right now. Some others are just a bit south of -1.

That's interesting, as we have basically the same thing for Drummond. By IPV (as of Jan 6th), the top 5 rookies are

1, Lillard +0.12
2, Drummond -0.38
3, Nicholson -1.01
4, MKG -1.38
5, Shved -1.39

[Crow]

xRAPM has Lillard at -1.2, with -1.0 coming from the defensive side. Drummond is estimated at +0.8 on offense, -1.1 on defense.

[Mike G]

Now at .473 of the season

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e82    per36 rates    tm   Min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
7.6   Lillard,Damian Por   38  .530   18.2   3.6   6.0   1.9   1.0   2.9   .2  1.17
5.0   Drummond,Andre Det   20  .570   13.0  12.9    .8   3.5   1.4   1.4  2.5  1.50
4.6 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha   28  .526   13.7   8.7   2.0   3.2   1.0   2.2  1.4  1.02
4.6   Davis,Anthony  NOH   30  .537   16.7  10.4    .8   2.6   1.4   1.7  2.1  1.37
4.2   Beal,Bradley   Was   32  .483   16.4   4.1   2.8   2.2   1.2   1.8   .5   .83

3.7   Shved,Alexey   Min   29  .490   13.7   3.3   5.5   2.4   1.1   2.9   .5   .77
3.3  Barnes,Harrison GSW   26  .511   13.7   6.3   2.0   2.6   1.0   1.6   .3   .76
3.3  Sullinger,Jared Bos   19  .540   11.1  10.6   1.3   5.7    .7   1.1   .8   .99
3.0   Waiters,Dion   Cle   30  .461   16.8   3.1   3.3   2.4   1.3   2.3   .2   .72
2.8 Valanciunas,Jona Tor   22  .553   13.3   9.1   1.8   4.7    .5   2.1  1.8  1.03

2.3   Zeller,Tyler   Cle   27  .462   10.2   8.0   1.3   4.3    .8   1.9  1.1   .56
2.2 Nicholson,Andrew Orl   15  .551   17.6   7.6    .8   4.3    .8   2.0   .7   .91
2.1   Singler,Kyle   Det   28  .521   11.5   5.2   1.4   3.5    .7   1.5   .6   .45
2.0   Prigioni,Pablo NYK   15  .538    7.9   3.7   7.1   3.4   2.2   2.6   .1   .79
1.9   Henson,John    Mil   13  .476   14.8  11.1   1.3   4.0    .6   1.7  1.7  1.16

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.6   Roberts,Brian  NOH   15  .494   15.5   2.2   4.2   2.4   1.0   1.9   .1   .64
1.4 Harkless,Maurice Orl   16  .494    8.2   7.5    .8   2.6   1.3   1.1  1.7   .59
1.4   Crowder,Jae    Dal   18  .479   10.7   4.7   2.2   3.4   1.7   1.2   .3   .50
1.2  Robinson,Thomas Sac   16  .462    9.1   9.4   1.3   4.0   1.1   2.7  1.0   .49
1.2   Leonard,Meyers Por   17  .598    9.8   7.3    .3   4.0    .6   1.3  1.5   .55

1.1   Ross,Terrence  Tor   17  .481   12.5   4.5   1.4   3.2   1.3   1.4   .5   .41
1.0   Ezeli,Festus   GSW   16  .446    5.6   9.2    .7   5.3    .9   2.2  2.3   .39
1.0   Decolo,Nando   SAS   11  .573   11.6   4.7   5.1   2.7   1.2   3.5   .2   .65
1.0   Copeland,Chris NYK   12  .575   18.8   3.6    .8   2.7    .6   1.6   .7   .70
1.0   Green,Draymond GSW   15  .399    6.5   8.2   1.7   4.7   1.7   1.6   .6   .41

Distribution of minutes and eWins by position.

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pos	Min	eW	%Min	e484
C	 2848	5.0	.12	.85
PF	5457	8.5	.22	.75
SF	5264	6.1	.21	.56
SG	6744	7.1	.27	.51
PG	4361	5.8	.18	.64

Now looking at 70 eWins by rookies.

[Mike G]

Recycling 5 previous posts, we can follow some trends for 20 rookies who have been among the leaders all season. They're from roughly equal intervals -- from .11, .24, .33, .40, and .47 of the season.
They're also cumulative totals and rates, so more fluctuation is typically seen between the first couple of lines for each player.
Major changes in the last couple of lines indicates a pretty strong move, for better or worse.
I've been curious as to why total rookie eWin projections topped out around 74 a few weeks ago, and seem to have stalled around 70.

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Barnes,Harrison   GSW     per36 rates        equiv. wins
Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk  e484   e82
27   .556   16.0   6.3   1.7   .6   2.0   .2   .78   3.5
28   .507   12.5   6.6   2.1   .8   1.7   .2   .71   3.3
26   .475   12.4   6.3   2.1  1.0   1.6   .2   .66   2.9
25   .492   13.1   6.4   2.0   .9   1.6   .3   .73   3.2
26   .511   13.7   6.3   2.0  1.0   1.6   .3   .76   3.3


Beal,Bradley   Was      per36 rates           equiv. wins
Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484   e82
29   .458   15.1   4.3   2.0   1.3   2.1   .4   .62   3.0
28   .467   15.4   4.6   2.5   1.2   2.1   .8   .73   3.4
30   .462   15.7   4.5   2.5   1.2   2.1   .6   .74   3.5
31   .465   15.7   4.3   2.7   1.1   1.8   .6   .76   3.7
32   .483   16.4   4.1   2.8   1.2   1.8   .5   .83   4.2


Crowder,Jae   Dal      per36 rates            equiv. wins
Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484  e82
20   .584   14.0   4.3   2.1   1.1   1.4   .4   .63   2.1
19   .468   10.1   4.7   2.0   2.0   1.2   .5   .45   1.4
19   .459   10.4   4.7   2.0   1.9   1.1   .3   .44   1.3
18   .454   10.2   4.8   1.9   1.8   1.3   .3   .40   1.1
18   .479   10.7   4.7   2.2   1.7   1.2   .3   .50   1.4


Davis,Anthony   NOH     per36 rates             equiv. wins
Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl    TO   Blk   e484   e82
28   .500   19.3   11.3  1.0   1.6   1.4   3.5   1.75   5.8
28   .555   21.4   11.9  1.0   1.3   2.0   2.9   1.82   2.8
31   .556   17.9   10.4   .7   1.3   2.0   1.9   1.39   3.8
32   .524   16.3   10.7   .6   1.1   1.9   2.2   1.29   4.1
30   .537   16.7   10.4   .8   1.4   1.7   2.1   1.37   4.6


Drummond,Andre   Det      per36 rates           equiv. wins
Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl    TO   Blk   e484   e82
15   .667   16.3   10.3  1.0   1.7   1.9   2.3   1.50   3.9
18   .554   11.8   11.6   .7   1.5   1.4   2.2   1.26   3.9
19   .534   11.5   12.0   .8   1.3   1.3   2.5   1.25   4.0
20   .558   12.4   12.9   .7   1.4   1.3   2.5   1.42   4.7
20   .570   13.0   12.9   .8   1.4   1.4   2.5   1.50   5.0


Ezeli,Festus   GSW      per36 rates         equiv. wins
Min   Eff%  Sco   Reb  Ast  Stl    TO   Blk  e484   e82
16   .438   6.4   9.0   .2  1.2   1.9   1.5   .42   1.2
16   .448   6.5   9.5   .4   .9   1.9   2.2   .53   1.5
16   .441   6.3  10.0   .5   .7   2.5   2.2   .43   1.1
16   .442   6.1   9.8   .6   .8   2.3   2.2   .43   1.1
16   .446   5.6   9.2   .7   .9   2.2   2.3   .39   1.0


Harkless,Maurice   Orl      per36 rates      equiv. wins
Min   Eff%  Sco   Reb  Ast   Stl    TO   Blk  e484   e82
17   .432   6.9   8.1   .7   1.6    .8   3.1   .70   1.2
18   .475   7.5   7.8  1.0   1.2    .9   1.5   .62   1.6
17   .483   8.5   8.0   .9   1.5   1.1   1.9   .71   1.9
18   .471   7.7   7.8   .8   1.4   1.0   1.8   .60   1.5
16   .494   8.2   7.5   .8   1.3   1.1   1.7   .59   1.4


Henson,John   Mil      per36 rates             equiv. wins
Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl    TO   Blk   e484   e82
13   .433   15.9   5.4   1.3  1.3   1.3   5.1    .98    .6
12   .463   13.8   9.4   1.2   .6   1.7   1.5    .83   1.2
11   .447   12.8   9.3   1.0   .5   1.5   1.6    .79    .9
11   .491   14.6  10.5   1.3   .8   1.5   1.6   1.14   1.5
13   .476   14.8  11.1   1.3   .6   1.7   1.7   1.16   1.9


Kidd-Gilchrist,M    Cha     per36 rates         equiv. wins
Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl    TO   Blk   e484   e82
28   .534   15.6   9.1   1.9   1.6   2.5   2.3   1.28   6.0
27   .533   14.4   8.6   2.3   1.3   2.1   1.9   1.22   5.7
28   .546   14.5   8.6   2.2   1.1   2.1   1.8   1.17   5.6
27   .539   14.3   8.6   2.1   1.1   2.2   1.6   1.10   5.0
28   .526   13.7   8.7   2.0   1.0   2.2   1.4   1.02   4.6


Leonard,Meyers   Por      per36 rates       equiv. wins
Min   Eff%  Sco   Reb  Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484   e82
18   .576   7.6   8.2   .6   .6    .8   1.4   .61   1.9
18   .579   8.6   7.1   .3   .7   1.1   1.8   .50   1.6
17   .600   9.5   6.8   .4   .7   1.2   1.5   .47   1.3
17   .598   9.7   7.4   .3   .6   1.3   1.5   .53   1.4
17   .598   9.8   7.3   .3   .6   1.3   1.5   .55   1.2


Lillard,Damian   Por      per36 rates          equiv. wins
Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484   e82
38   .558   19.5   3.5   6.1   1.3   3.3   .1   1.22   7.8
38   .549   19.6   3.3   6.0   1.2   3.1   .2   1.22   7.8
38   .539   19.5   3.4   6.3   1.1   2.9   .2   1.27   8.2
38   .530   18.7   3.5   6.0   1.0   3.0   .2   1.18   7.6
38   .530   18.2   3.6   6.0   1.0   2.9   .2   1.17   7.6


Prigioni,Pablo   NYK      per36 rates        equiv. wins
Min   Eff%  Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484   e82
12   .579   9.5   1.5   7.6   2.6   2.6   .0   .87   1.8
14   .581   8.6   3.1   6.9   2.1   2.7   .0   .88   2.0
13   .571   8.9   3.6   6.5   2.2   2.4   .0   .83   1.8
14   .526   8.0   3.6   7.3   2.3   2.5   .1   .85   2.0
15   .538   7.9   3.7   7.1   2.2   2.6   .1   .79   2.0


Roberts,Brian   NOH       per36 rates         equiv. wins
Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484   e82
16   .500   16.2   2.1   6.1    .7   2.0   .0   .85   2.0
17   .530   16.5   2.1   4.5    .8   2.2   .1   .68   1.9
17   .509   15.4   2.0   4.3   1.1   2.1   .1   .63   1.7
16   .500   15.3   2.2   4.3   1.0   2.1   .1   .62   1.7
15   .494   15.5   2.2   4.2   1.0   1.9   .1   .64   1.6


Robinson,Thomas    Sac      per36 rates       equiv. wins
Min   Eff%  Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl    TO   Blk  e484   e82
17   .521  10.9   6.9    .7   2.5   2.5    .3   .51   1.1
16   .473   9.3   8.1   1.6   1.5   2.6    .9   .49   1.2
16   .447   8.3   8.1   1.2   1.2   2.5   1.0   .33    .8
15   .448   8.5   8.0   1.3   1.2   2.6   1.0   .35    .8
16   .462   9.1   9.4   1.3   1.1   2.7   1.0   .49   1.2


Shved,Alexey   Min      per36 rates           equiv. wins
Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484  e82
25   .525   16.4   3.7   4.9    .9   2.8   .7   .93   3.9
27   .513   14.7   3.6   5.7   1.0   2.8   .4   .90   4.2
28   .522   15.1   3.6   5.7    .9   2.9   .4   .93   4.4
29   .490   13.7   3.3   5.5   1.1   2.9   .5   .77   3.7
- (first line of data is missing)


Singler,Kyle   Det      per36 rates          equiv. wins
Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl    TO  Blk  e484   e82
23   .596   14.2   4.3    .5   .3    .9  1.3   .53   2.1
28   .582   12.8   4.7   1.1   .6   1.4   .7   .48   2.2
29   .531   11.9   5.2   1.2   .6   1.3   .6   .45   2.2
28   .511   11.2   5.2   1.2   .7   1.3   .6   .42   2.0
28   .521   11.5   5.2   1.4   .7   1.5   .6   .45   2.1


Sullinger,Jared   Bos      per36 rates       equiv. wins
Min   Eff%  Sco    Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e484  e82
16   .540   6.7    7.9   1.5   .5    .7  1.2   .49   1.3
18   .535   9.9    9.9   1.0   .6   1.1  1.0   .75   2.3
17   .496   9.1   10.1   1.2   .7   1.2   .9   .68   2.0
18   .513  10.0   10.2   1.3   .8   1.2   .8   .81   2.5
19   .540  11.1   10.6   1.3   .7   1.1   .8   .99   3.3


Valanciunas,Jonas    Tor      per36 rates      equiv. wins
Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484   e82
20   .532   16.9  10.8   2.2   .7   2.2   1.2   1.29   4.3
23   .536   13.0   9.0   1.8   .5   2.1   1.8    .95   3.7
22   .553   13.8   9.5   1.8   .5   2.3   1.9   1.09   4.1
22   .553   13.4   9.1   1.8   .5   2.2   1.8   1.03   3.3
22   .553   13.3   9.1   1.8   .5   2.2   1.8   1.03   2.8


Waiters,Dion   Cle      per36 rates           equiv. wins
Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484   e82
29   .535   18.0   3.2   2.6   1.3   2.3   .3   .78   3.8
32   .459   16.9   2.9   3.5   1.4   2.2   .2   .71   3.1
32   .450   17.0   3.1   3.6   1.4   2.4   .2   .74   2.9
31   .446   16.2   3.0   3.5   1.5   2.3   .2   .70   2.8
30   .461   16.8   3.1   3.3   1.3   2.3   .2   .72   3.0


Zeller,Tyler   Cle      per36 rates          equiv. wins
Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk  e484   e82
19   .476   12.0   8.8   1.2  1.8   1.8   .4   .78   1.2
22   .458    9.8   8.4   1.1   .7   1.7   .9   .48   1.5
24   .475   10.5   8.0   1.0   .8   1.7   .7   .49   1.7
25   .465   10.6   8.0   1.1   .7   2.0   .9   .50   1.9
27   .462   10.2   8.0   1.3   .8   1.9  1.1   .56   2.3

Last 2 columns are eWins per 484 minutes (1.00 is average) and per 82 games.
Zeller is one of the few whose eWin rates are steadily upward (or downward).
A lot of guys seemed to start hot, cool off, and now are on the upswing again.

[Mike G]

Bradley Beal is 26-43 (.605) from the arc in January. Before that, 29-108 (.269).
Harrison Barnes was 14-45 (.311) on treys thru Dec 14, and he's 17-37 (.459) since.
In 8 starts, Jae Crowder is shooting .292 eFG%. Off the bench, he's shot .517 eFG
Thru Dec 12, Nando DeColo had shot .490 TS%. Since then, he's .702, and getting fewer minutes.
Since Christmas, Andre Drummond has made 35 of 49 FG -- .714 FG%. This is almost twice his FT%, .392 on the year.

[Crow]

Using e484 and comparing the first measurement to the most recent (if top listing is first measurement and lowest listing is most recent), I see 4 improvements, 15 declines and one tie.

Almost all players appear to have been pegged at certain amount of minutes at the beginning of the season and have seen little change it that.
Only 25% have seen minutes change by more than 20%, with Zeller having the biggest upward movement of more than 40%.

[Mike G]

Using e484 and comparing the first measurement to the most recent (if top listing is first measurement and lowest listing is most recent), I see 4 improvements, 15 declines and one tie.

From the 2nd listing (after ~20 games) to most recent, I count 10 improvements and a couple of ties.

A number of guys shot better in the first few games and not as well thereafter. Improvements are more likely in turnover rates.
In the season's 2nd half, I still expect to see more rookies in starts and/or playing more minutes.

[Mike G]

Season .625 completed, and rookies project to contribute 69.5 equivalent wins.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
7.1   Lillard,Damian  Por   39   .527   18.0   3.3   6.1   1.0   2.8   .3  1.09
5.1   Davis,Anthony   NOH   28   .536   16.6  10.5   1.0   1.5   1.9  2.3  1.44
5.0   Drummond,Andre  Det   20   .554   13.2  13.5    .8   1.6   1.4  2.6  1.58
3.7   Beal,Bradley    Was   31   .492   16.6   3.9   2.7   1.1   1.8   .6   .82
3.5  Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha   26   .504   12.5   8.3   2.0   1.1   2.0  1.2   .85

3.1   Shved,Alexey    Min   28   .485   14.0   3.5   5.5   1.0   3.0   .5   .71
3.0   Waiters,Dion    Cle   29   .470   16.8   3.2   3.5   1.3   2.5   .2   .72
3.0  Barnes,Harrison  GSW   26   .524   13.2   6.1   2.1    .9   1.7   .3   .69
2.8  Sullinger,Jared  Bos   20   .526   11.1  10.7   1.3    .8   1.1   .8   .96
2.5  Nicholson,Andrew Orl   16   .561   17.7   8.1    .9    .7   2.2   .9  1.00

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
2.5   Zeller,Tyler    Cle   27   .462    9.8   8.5   1.6    .7   1.8  1.0   .57
2.3  Valanciunas,Jona Tor   21   .559   13.2   9.7   1.6    .5   2.1  1.9  1.00
2.3   Singler,Kyle    Det   28   .528   11.9   5.3   1.4    .9   1.4   .6   .48
2.0   Henson,John     Mil   13   .475   15.7  10.8   1.1    .5   1.7  1.5  1.19
1.8   Prigioni,Pablo  NYK   15   .584    8.8   3.9   7.2   2.2   2.8   .1   .73

1.7   Roberts,Brian   NOH   15   .495   15.4   2.4   4.5   1.0   1.8   .1   .71
1.6  Harkless,Maurice Orl   20   .487    8.6   7.3    .9   1.5   1.0  1.4   .56
1.4  Robinson,Thomas  Sac   16   .454    9.7   9.9   1.3   1.0   2.7   .9   .54
1.3   Crowder,Jae     Dal   17   .477   10.7   4.6   2.2   1.9   1.2   .3   .50
1.3   Ross,Terrence   Tor   17   .482   12.8   4.4   1.6   1.2   1.3   .5   .46

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.1   Decolo,Nando    SAS   12   .534   10.8   5.1   5.9   1.5   3.3   .2   .64
1.0   Copeland,Chris  NYK   12   .571   19.0   4.0   1.0    .5   1.6   .6   .80
1.0   James,Bernard   Dal   12   .522    9.6   9.7    .5    .9   1.2  2.5   .81
1.0   Leonard,Meyers  Por   15   .589    9.7   7.6    .6    .6   1.3  1.3   .50
0.9   Green,Draymond  GSW   15   .423    7.2   8.4   1.7   1.5   1.8   .7   .38
0.9   O'Quinn,Kyle    Orl    7   .584   15.1   9.8   2.1    .6   1.7  2.3  1.31
0.8   Taylor,Jeffery  Cha   21   .527   10.4   3.5   1.3   1.2   1.0   .3   .23

[Crow]

Drummond leads on e484, with only Davis anywhere close (other than O"Quinn is very short minutes.)

[Mike G]

eWins has Drummond and Greg Monroe dead even as best on the Pistons, and no one else (exception : Calderon for 5 games) at all close.

Drummond doesn't start, so I guess his floormates have been less than 50% starters. I multiply his per-minute rates by .964 to get 1.58 eW/484.

If his start% factor is 1.016 (i.e., same as Monroe), his e484 is 1.75 . This is still less than his WS/48 of .192
Monroe is at .117 WS/48, same as Charlie V.

One glaring weakness for Drummond is his .365 FT%
His eFG% of .594 becomes a .566 TS%
He shot .295 at UConn.

Meanwhile, Austin Rivers has slid off into replacement-level land, right at .00 ewins per x minutes.
His WS/48 is shown as -.049 . Last time a player went 1200 minutes at such a low rate was 1972, with the expansion Buffalo Braves.
Adam Morrison was -.030 in his rookie year.

[v-zero]

Is it possible to have a negative e484? In which case how do you deal with that when multiplying by your starter/bench warmer factor?

[Mike G]

Yes, 24 guys have negative e484. They total 0.55% of NBA minutes and -1.9 eWins.
Half of them are rookies.

The per36 production rates which are multiplied by start% factor (and other factors) are weighted and summed to a total -- appears in the spreadsheet as T rate, which at one time was my final assessment (sort of like PER).

Replacement level is subtracted from T, then converted to eWins and eW/484:
eW = (T - Tr)*Min/4930
The factor 4930 is 'found' by Excel to make player eWins sum to team (league) wins.

Rivers' T is 13.2, which is right at replacement level today.

[v-zero]

Ah, but surely that multiplication factor is going to help these negative players who come off the bench, and hinder the players who start? In other words two players with the same rating, one coming off the bench and one starting, the bench player will have a higher rating due to the multiplication.