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Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 1:07 am
by Mike G
At the 40% point of the season, rookies project to 68 eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.6 Lillard,Damian Por 38 .530 18.7 3.5 6.0 1.0 3.0 .2 1.18
5.0 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha 27 .539 14.3 8.6 2.1 1.1 2.2 1.6 1.10
4.7 Drummond,Andre Det 20 .558 12.4 12.9 .7 1.4 1.3 2.5 1.42
4.4 Shved,Alexey Min 28 .522 15.1 3.6 5.7 .9 2.9 .4 .93
4.1 Davis,Anthony NOH 32 .524 16.3 10.7 .6 1.1 1.9 2.2 1.29
3.7 Beal,Bradley Was 31 .465 15.7 4.3 2.7 1.1 1.8 .6 .76
3.3 Valanciunas,Jona Tor 22 .553 13.4 9.1 1.8 .5 2.2 1.8 1.03
3.2 Barnes,Harrison GSW 25 .492 13.1 6.4 2.0 .9 1.6 .3 .73
2.8 Waiters,Dion Cle 31 .446 16.2 3.0 3.5 1.5 2.3 .2 .70
2.5 Sullinger,Jared Bos 18 .513 10.0 10.2 1.3 .8 1.2 .8 .81
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.2 Nicholson,Andrew Orl 14 .556 18.0 7.5 .8 .7 1.8 .8 .95
2.0 Singler,Kyle Det 28 .511 11.2 5.2 1.2 .7 1.3 .6 .42
2.0 Prigioni,Pablo NYK 14 .526 8.0 3.6 7.3 2.3 2.5 .1 .85
1.9 Zeller,Tyler Cle 25 .465 10.6 8.0 1.1 .7 2.0 .9 .50
1.7 Roberts,Brian NOH 16 .500 15.3 2.2 4.3 1.0 2.1 .1 .62
1.5 Harkless,Maurice Orl 18 .471 7.7 7.8 .8 1.4 1.0 1.8 .60
1.5 Henson,John Mil 11 .491 14.6 10.5 1.3 .8 1.5 1.6 1.14
1.4 Leonard,Meyers Por 17 .598 9.7 7.4 .3 .6 1.3 1.5 .53
1.2 Ross,Terrence Tor 18 .499 13.2 4.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 .5 .44
1.2 Decolo,Nando SAS 12 .567 11.6 4.6 5.0 1.2 3.3 .3 .67
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.1 Crowder,Jae Dal 18 .454 10.2 4.8 1.9 1.8 1.3 .3 .40
1.1 Ezeli,Festus GSW 16 .442 6.1 9.8 .6 .8 2.3 2.2 .43
1.0 Copeland,Chris NYK 12 .583 19.7 3.0 1.0 .7 1.5 .9 .78
0.9 Green,Draymond GSW 15 .375 5.9 8.2 1.7 1.6 1.4 .6 .36
0.8 Robinson,Thomas Sac 15 .448 8.5 8.0 1.3 1.2 2.6 1.0 .35
0.8 James,Bernard Dal 11 .531 9.7 9.6 .3 .6 1.3 2.6 .77
0.8 Taylor,Jeffery Cha 24 .499 9.6 3.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 .3 .21
0.6 Rivers,Austin NOH 27 .409 9.2 3.3 2.9 .8 1.9 .2 .14
0.5 Jenkins,John Atl 8 .647 17.3 4.0 2.2 .2 2.0 .3 .74
0.5 O'Quinn,Kyle Orl 5 .536 10.6 9.3 2.4 .3 1.6 2.9 1.03
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:38 pm
by Crow
Drummond at -0.3 on xRAPM. I think that is the rookie best right now. Some others are just a bit south of -1.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 11:55 pm
by talkingpractice
Crow wrote:Drummond at -0.3 on xRAPM. I think that is the rookie best right now. Some others are just a bit south of -1.
That's interesting, as we have basically the same thing for Drummond. By IPV (as of Jan 6th), the top 5 rookies are
1, Lillard +0.12
2, Drummond -0.38
3, Nicholson -1.01
4, MKG -1.38
5, Shved -1.39
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2013 8:56 pm
by Crow
xRAPM has Lillard at -1.2, with -1.0 coming from the defensive side. Drummond is estimated at +0.8 on offense, -1.1 on defense.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:01 pm
by Mike G
Now at .473 of the season
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
7.6 Lillard,Damian Por 38 .530 18.2 3.6 6.0 1.9 1.0 2.9 .2 1.17
5.0 Drummond,Andre Det 20 .570 13.0 12.9 .8 3.5 1.4 1.4 2.5 1.50
4.6 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha 28 .526 13.7 8.7 2.0 3.2 1.0 2.2 1.4 1.02
4.6 Davis,Anthony NOH 30 .537 16.7 10.4 .8 2.6 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.37
4.2 Beal,Bradley Was 32 .483 16.4 4.1 2.8 2.2 1.2 1.8 .5 .83
3.7 Shved,Alexey Min 29 .490 13.7 3.3 5.5 2.4 1.1 2.9 .5 .77
3.3 Barnes,Harrison GSW 26 .511 13.7 6.3 2.0 2.6 1.0 1.6 .3 .76
3.3 Sullinger,Jared Bos 19 .540 11.1 10.6 1.3 5.7 .7 1.1 .8 .99
3.0 Waiters,Dion Cle 30 .461 16.8 3.1 3.3 2.4 1.3 2.3 .2 .72
2.8 Valanciunas,Jona Tor 22 .553 13.3 9.1 1.8 4.7 .5 2.1 1.8 1.03
2.3 Zeller,Tyler Cle 27 .462 10.2 8.0 1.3 4.3 .8 1.9 1.1 .56
2.2 Nicholson,Andrew Orl 15 .551 17.6 7.6 .8 4.3 .8 2.0 .7 .91
2.1 Singler,Kyle Det 28 .521 11.5 5.2 1.4 3.5 .7 1.5 .6 .45
2.0 Prigioni,Pablo NYK 15 .538 7.9 3.7 7.1 3.4 2.2 2.6 .1 .79
1.9 Henson,John Mil 13 .476 14.8 11.1 1.3 4.0 .6 1.7 1.7 1.16
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.6 Roberts,Brian NOH 15 .494 15.5 2.2 4.2 2.4 1.0 1.9 .1 .64
1.4 Harkless,Maurice Orl 16 .494 8.2 7.5 .8 2.6 1.3 1.1 1.7 .59
1.4 Crowder,Jae Dal 18 .479 10.7 4.7 2.2 3.4 1.7 1.2 .3 .50
1.2 Robinson,Thomas Sac 16 .462 9.1 9.4 1.3 4.0 1.1 2.7 1.0 .49
1.2 Leonard,Meyers Por 17 .598 9.8 7.3 .3 4.0 .6 1.3 1.5 .55
1.1 Ross,Terrence Tor 17 .481 12.5 4.5 1.4 3.2 1.3 1.4 .5 .41
1.0 Ezeli,Festus GSW 16 .446 5.6 9.2 .7 5.3 .9 2.2 2.3 .39
1.0 Decolo,Nando SAS 11 .573 11.6 4.7 5.1 2.7 1.2 3.5 .2 .65
1.0 Copeland,Chris NYK 12 .575 18.8 3.6 .8 2.7 .6 1.6 .7 .70
1.0 Green,Draymond GSW 15 .399 6.5 8.2 1.7 4.7 1.7 1.6 .6 .41
Distribution of minutes and eWins by position.
Code: Select all
pos Min eW %Min e484
C 2848 5.0 .12 .85
PF 5457 8.5 .22 .75
SF 5264 6.1 .21 .56
SG 6744 7.1 .27 .51
PG 4361 5.8 .18 .64
Now looking at 70 eWins by rookies.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2013 12:54 pm
by Mike G
Recycling 5 previous posts, we can follow some trends for 20 rookies who have been among the leaders all season. They're from roughly equal intervals -- from .11, .24, .33, .40, and .47 of the season.
They're also cumulative totals and rates, so more fluctuation is typically seen between the first couple of lines for each player.
Major changes in the last couple of lines indicates a pretty strong move, for better or worse.
I've been curious as to why total rookie eWin projections topped out around 74 a few weeks ago, and seem to have stalled around 70.
Code: Select all
Barnes,Harrison GSW per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
27 .556 16.0 6.3 1.7 .6 2.0 .2 .78 3.5
28 .507 12.5 6.6 2.1 .8 1.7 .2 .71 3.3
26 .475 12.4 6.3 2.1 1.0 1.6 .2 .66 2.9
25 .492 13.1 6.4 2.0 .9 1.6 .3 .73 3.2
26 .511 13.7 6.3 2.0 1.0 1.6 .3 .76 3.3
Beal,Bradley Was per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
29 .458 15.1 4.3 2.0 1.3 2.1 .4 .62 3.0
28 .467 15.4 4.6 2.5 1.2 2.1 .8 .73 3.4
30 .462 15.7 4.5 2.5 1.2 2.1 .6 .74 3.5
31 .465 15.7 4.3 2.7 1.1 1.8 .6 .76 3.7
32 .483 16.4 4.1 2.8 1.2 1.8 .5 .83 4.2
Crowder,Jae Dal per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
20 .584 14.0 4.3 2.1 1.1 1.4 .4 .63 2.1
19 .468 10.1 4.7 2.0 2.0 1.2 .5 .45 1.4
19 .459 10.4 4.7 2.0 1.9 1.1 .3 .44 1.3
18 .454 10.2 4.8 1.9 1.8 1.3 .3 .40 1.1
18 .479 10.7 4.7 2.2 1.7 1.2 .3 .50 1.4
Davis,Anthony NOH per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
28 .500 19.3 11.3 1.0 1.6 1.4 3.5 1.75 5.8
28 .555 21.4 11.9 1.0 1.3 2.0 2.9 1.82 2.8
31 .556 17.9 10.4 .7 1.3 2.0 1.9 1.39 3.8
32 .524 16.3 10.7 .6 1.1 1.9 2.2 1.29 4.1
30 .537 16.7 10.4 .8 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.37 4.6
Drummond,Andre Det per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
15 .667 16.3 10.3 1.0 1.7 1.9 2.3 1.50 3.9
18 .554 11.8 11.6 .7 1.5 1.4 2.2 1.26 3.9
19 .534 11.5 12.0 .8 1.3 1.3 2.5 1.25 4.0
20 .558 12.4 12.9 .7 1.4 1.3 2.5 1.42 4.7
20 .570 13.0 12.9 .8 1.4 1.4 2.5 1.50 5.0
Ezeli,Festus GSW per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
16 .438 6.4 9.0 .2 1.2 1.9 1.5 .42 1.2
16 .448 6.5 9.5 .4 .9 1.9 2.2 .53 1.5
16 .441 6.3 10.0 .5 .7 2.5 2.2 .43 1.1
16 .442 6.1 9.8 .6 .8 2.3 2.2 .43 1.1
16 .446 5.6 9.2 .7 .9 2.2 2.3 .39 1.0
Harkless,Maurice Orl per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
17 .432 6.9 8.1 .7 1.6 .8 3.1 .70 1.2
18 .475 7.5 7.8 1.0 1.2 .9 1.5 .62 1.6
17 .483 8.5 8.0 .9 1.5 1.1 1.9 .71 1.9
18 .471 7.7 7.8 .8 1.4 1.0 1.8 .60 1.5
16 .494 8.2 7.5 .8 1.3 1.1 1.7 .59 1.4
Henson,John Mil per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
13 .433 15.9 5.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 5.1 .98 .6
12 .463 13.8 9.4 1.2 .6 1.7 1.5 .83 1.2
11 .447 12.8 9.3 1.0 .5 1.5 1.6 .79 .9
11 .491 14.6 10.5 1.3 .8 1.5 1.6 1.14 1.5
13 .476 14.8 11.1 1.3 .6 1.7 1.7 1.16 1.9
Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
28 .534 15.6 9.1 1.9 1.6 2.5 2.3 1.28 6.0
27 .533 14.4 8.6 2.3 1.3 2.1 1.9 1.22 5.7
28 .546 14.5 8.6 2.2 1.1 2.1 1.8 1.17 5.6
27 .539 14.3 8.6 2.1 1.1 2.2 1.6 1.10 5.0
28 .526 13.7 8.7 2.0 1.0 2.2 1.4 1.02 4.6
Leonard,Meyers Por per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
18 .576 7.6 8.2 .6 .6 .8 1.4 .61 1.9
18 .579 8.6 7.1 .3 .7 1.1 1.8 .50 1.6
17 .600 9.5 6.8 .4 .7 1.2 1.5 .47 1.3
17 .598 9.7 7.4 .3 .6 1.3 1.5 .53 1.4
17 .598 9.8 7.3 .3 .6 1.3 1.5 .55 1.2
Lillard,Damian Por per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
38 .558 19.5 3.5 6.1 1.3 3.3 .1 1.22 7.8
38 .549 19.6 3.3 6.0 1.2 3.1 .2 1.22 7.8
38 .539 19.5 3.4 6.3 1.1 2.9 .2 1.27 8.2
38 .530 18.7 3.5 6.0 1.0 3.0 .2 1.18 7.6
38 .530 18.2 3.6 6.0 1.0 2.9 .2 1.17 7.6
Prigioni,Pablo NYK per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
12 .579 9.5 1.5 7.6 2.6 2.6 .0 .87 1.8
14 .581 8.6 3.1 6.9 2.1 2.7 .0 .88 2.0
13 .571 8.9 3.6 6.5 2.2 2.4 .0 .83 1.8
14 .526 8.0 3.6 7.3 2.3 2.5 .1 .85 2.0
15 .538 7.9 3.7 7.1 2.2 2.6 .1 .79 2.0
Roberts,Brian NOH per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
16 .500 16.2 2.1 6.1 .7 2.0 .0 .85 2.0
17 .530 16.5 2.1 4.5 .8 2.2 .1 .68 1.9
17 .509 15.4 2.0 4.3 1.1 2.1 .1 .63 1.7
16 .500 15.3 2.2 4.3 1.0 2.1 .1 .62 1.7
15 .494 15.5 2.2 4.2 1.0 1.9 .1 .64 1.6
Robinson,Thomas Sac per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
17 .521 10.9 6.9 .7 2.5 2.5 .3 .51 1.1
16 .473 9.3 8.1 1.6 1.5 2.6 .9 .49 1.2
16 .447 8.3 8.1 1.2 1.2 2.5 1.0 .33 .8
15 .448 8.5 8.0 1.3 1.2 2.6 1.0 .35 .8
16 .462 9.1 9.4 1.3 1.1 2.7 1.0 .49 1.2
Shved,Alexey Min per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
25 .525 16.4 3.7 4.9 .9 2.8 .7 .93 3.9
27 .513 14.7 3.6 5.7 1.0 2.8 .4 .90 4.2
28 .522 15.1 3.6 5.7 .9 2.9 .4 .93 4.4
29 .490 13.7 3.3 5.5 1.1 2.9 .5 .77 3.7
- (first line of data is missing)
Singler,Kyle Det per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
23 .596 14.2 4.3 .5 .3 .9 1.3 .53 2.1
28 .582 12.8 4.7 1.1 .6 1.4 .7 .48 2.2
29 .531 11.9 5.2 1.2 .6 1.3 .6 .45 2.2
28 .511 11.2 5.2 1.2 .7 1.3 .6 .42 2.0
28 .521 11.5 5.2 1.4 .7 1.5 .6 .45 2.1
Sullinger,Jared Bos per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
16 .540 6.7 7.9 1.5 .5 .7 1.2 .49 1.3
18 .535 9.9 9.9 1.0 .6 1.1 1.0 .75 2.3
17 .496 9.1 10.1 1.2 .7 1.2 .9 .68 2.0
18 .513 10.0 10.2 1.3 .8 1.2 .8 .81 2.5
19 .540 11.1 10.6 1.3 .7 1.1 .8 .99 3.3
Valanciunas,Jonas Tor per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
20 .532 16.9 10.8 2.2 .7 2.2 1.2 1.29 4.3
23 .536 13.0 9.0 1.8 .5 2.1 1.8 .95 3.7
22 .553 13.8 9.5 1.8 .5 2.3 1.9 1.09 4.1
22 .553 13.4 9.1 1.8 .5 2.2 1.8 1.03 3.3
22 .553 13.3 9.1 1.8 .5 2.2 1.8 1.03 2.8
Waiters,Dion Cle per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
29 .535 18.0 3.2 2.6 1.3 2.3 .3 .78 3.8
32 .459 16.9 2.9 3.5 1.4 2.2 .2 .71 3.1
32 .450 17.0 3.1 3.6 1.4 2.4 .2 .74 2.9
31 .446 16.2 3.0 3.5 1.5 2.3 .2 .70 2.8
30 .461 16.8 3.1 3.3 1.3 2.3 .2 .72 3.0
Zeller,Tyler Cle per36 rates equiv. wins
Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 e82
19 .476 12.0 8.8 1.2 1.8 1.8 .4 .78 1.2
22 .458 9.8 8.4 1.1 .7 1.7 .9 .48 1.5
24 .475 10.5 8.0 1.0 .8 1.7 .7 .49 1.7
25 .465 10.6 8.0 1.1 .7 2.0 .9 .50 1.9
27 .462 10.2 8.0 1.3 .8 1.9 1.1 .56 2.3
Last 2 columns are eWins per 484 minutes (1.00 is average) and per 82 games.
Zeller is one of the few whose eWin rates are steadily upward (or downward).
A lot of guys seemed to start hot, cool off, and now are on the upswing again.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:08 pm
by Mike G
Bradley Beal is 26-43 (.605) from the arc in January. Before that, 29-108 (.269).
Harrison Barnes was 14-45 (.311) on treys thru Dec 14, and he's 17-37 (.459) since.
In 8 starts, Jae Crowder is shooting .292 eFG%. Off the bench, he's shot .517 eFG
Thru Dec 12, Nando DeColo had shot .490 TS%. Since then, he's .702, and getting fewer minutes.
Since Christmas, Andre Drummond has made 35 of 49 FG -- .714 FG%. This is almost twice his FT%, .392 on the year.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 11:55 pm
by Crow
Using e484 and comparing the first measurement to the most recent (if top listing is first measurement and lowest listing is most recent), I see 4 improvements, 15 declines and one tie.
Almost all players appear to have been pegged at certain amount of minutes at the beginning of the season and have seen little change it that.
Only 25% have seen minutes change by more than 20%, with Zeller having the biggest upward movement of more than 40%.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 5:58 am
by Mike G
Crow wrote:Using e484 and comparing the first measurement to the most recent (if top listing is first measurement and lowest listing is most recent), I see 4 improvements, 15 declines and one tie.
From the 2nd listing (after ~20 games) to most recent, I count 10 improvements and a couple of ties.
A number of guys shot better in the first few games and not as well thereafter. Improvements are more likely in turnover rates.
In the season's 2nd half, I still expect to see more rookies in starts and/or playing more minutes.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 2:36 pm
by Mike G
Season .625 completed, and rookies project to contribute 69.5 equivalent wins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.1 Lillard,Damian Por 39 .527 18.0 3.3 6.1 1.0 2.8 .3 1.09
5.1 Davis,Anthony NOH 28 .536 16.6 10.5 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.3 1.44
5.0 Drummond,Andre Det 20 .554 13.2 13.5 .8 1.6 1.4 2.6 1.58
3.7 Beal,Bradley Was 31 .492 16.6 3.9 2.7 1.1 1.8 .6 .82
3.5 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha 26 .504 12.5 8.3 2.0 1.1 2.0 1.2 .85
3.1 Shved,Alexey Min 28 .485 14.0 3.5 5.5 1.0 3.0 .5 .71
3.0 Waiters,Dion Cle 29 .470 16.8 3.2 3.5 1.3 2.5 .2 .72
3.0 Barnes,Harrison GSW 26 .524 13.2 6.1 2.1 .9 1.7 .3 .69
2.8 Sullinger,Jared Bos 20 .526 11.1 10.7 1.3 .8 1.1 .8 .96
2.5 Nicholson,Andrew Orl 16 .561 17.7 8.1 .9 .7 2.2 .9 1.00
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.5 Zeller,Tyler Cle 27 .462 9.8 8.5 1.6 .7 1.8 1.0 .57
2.3 Valanciunas,Jona Tor 21 .559 13.2 9.7 1.6 .5 2.1 1.9 1.00
2.3 Singler,Kyle Det 28 .528 11.9 5.3 1.4 .9 1.4 .6 .48
2.0 Henson,John Mil 13 .475 15.7 10.8 1.1 .5 1.7 1.5 1.19
1.8 Prigioni,Pablo NYK 15 .584 8.8 3.9 7.2 2.2 2.8 .1 .73
1.7 Roberts,Brian NOH 15 .495 15.4 2.4 4.5 1.0 1.8 .1 .71
1.6 Harkless,Maurice Orl 20 .487 8.6 7.3 .9 1.5 1.0 1.4 .56
1.4 Robinson,Thomas Sac 16 .454 9.7 9.9 1.3 1.0 2.7 .9 .54
1.3 Crowder,Jae Dal 17 .477 10.7 4.6 2.2 1.9 1.2 .3 .50
1.3 Ross,Terrence Tor 17 .482 12.8 4.4 1.6 1.2 1.3 .5 .46
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.1 Decolo,Nando SAS 12 .534 10.8 5.1 5.9 1.5 3.3 .2 .64
1.0 Copeland,Chris NYK 12 .571 19.0 4.0 1.0 .5 1.6 .6 .80
1.0 James,Bernard Dal 12 .522 9.6 9.7 .5 .9 1.2 2.5 .81
1.0 Leonard,Meyers Por 15 .589 9.7 7.6 .6 .6 1.3 1.3 .50
0.9 Green,Draymond GSW 15 .423 7.2 8.4 1.7 1.5 1.8 .7 .38
0.9 O'Quinn,Kyle Orl 7 .584 15.1 9.8 2.1 .6 1.7 2.3 1.31
0.8 Taylor,Jeffery Cha 21 .527 10.4 3.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 .3 .23
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 8:37 pm
by Crow
Drummond leads on e484, with only Davis anywhere close (other than O"Quinn is very short minutes.)
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:19 am
by Mike G
eWins has Drummond and Greg Monroe dead even as best on the Pistons, and no one else (exception : Calderon for 5 games) at all close.
Drummond doesn't start, so I guess his floormates have been less than 50% starters. I multiply his per-minute rates by .964 to get 1.58 eW/484.
If his start% factor is 1.016 (i.e., same as Monroe), his e484 is 1.75 . This is still less than his WS/48 of .192
Monroe is at .117 WS/48, same as Charlie V.
One glaring weakness for Drummond is his .365 FT%
His eFG% of .594 becomes a .566 TS%
He shot .295 at UConn.
Meanwhile, Austin Rivers has slid off into replacement-level land, right at .00 ewins per x minutes.
His WS/48 is shown as -.049 . Last time a player went 1200 minutes at such a low rate was 1972, with the expansion Buffalo Braves.
Adam Morrison was -.030 in his rookie year.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:33 am
by v-zero
Is it possible to have a negative e484? In which case how do you deal with that when multiplying by your starter/bench warmer factor?
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:57 am
by Mike G
Yes, 24 guys have negative e484. They total 0.55% of NBA minutes and -1.9 eWins.
Half of them are rookies.
The per36 production rates which are multiplied by start% factor (and other factors) are weighted and summed to a total -- appears in the spreadsheet as T rate, which at one time was my final assessment (sort of like PER).
Replacement level is subtracted from T, then converted to eWins and eW/484:
eW = (T - Tr)*Min/4930
The factor 4930 is 'found' by Excel to make player eWins sum to team (league) wins.
Rivers' T is 13.2, which is right at replacement level today.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:04 pm
by v-zero
Ah, but surely that multiplication factor is going to help these negative players who come off the bench, and hinder the players who start? In other words two players with the same rating, one coming off the bench and one starting, the bench player will have a higher rating due to the multiplication.