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Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 4:33 pm
by 416x
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 11:33 pm
by Mike G
Having guessed the Nets would lead the league with 63 wins, I expected a rejoinder of some sort. Nobody else thus far has predicted such success. I'll just illustrate how I did these.
The players on the roster totaled 287 minutes per game last year. That's just their season minutes divided by 82. The table shows last year's team, mpg, and eWins per 484 minutes (avg = 1.00), my pet stat. Followed by mpg I've allotted this season and the resultant eWins.
Code: Select all
tm'13 Nets pos '13mpg e484 mpg eWins
Brk Deron Williams PG 34.7 1.62 32 8.8
Brk Joe Johnson SG 32.2 .90 28 4.3
Bos Paul Pierce SF 31.4 1.63 26 7.2
Brk Brook Lopez C 27.5 1.83 26 8.1
Bos Kevin Garnett PF 24.7 1.62 26 7.1
Min Andrei Kirilenko SF 24.8 1.17 24 4.8
Bos Jason Terry PG 25.9 .63 20 2.1
Brk Reggie Evans PF 24.0 1.30 16 3.5
Brk Andray Blatche C 19.0 1.59 14 3.8
Tor Alan Anderson SF 18.2 .70 12 1.4
Cle Shaun Livingston PG 13.8 .73 10 1.2
Brk Mirza Teletovic PF 6.1 .68 2 .2
Mem Chris Johnson SF 1.2 .29 2 .1
Brk Tyshawn Taylor PG 2.7 .12 2 .0
Brk Tornik Shengelia SF 1.1 .27 2 .1
.Nets total 287 242 52.7
A team total of 52.7 eWins (equivalent wins) leads to an expected wins total of: xW = 2*eW-41 = 64.4
Doing each team this way, teams average 42.1 xWins. So every team's xW is multiplied by (41/42.1) .974 -- Nets adjusted xW then = 62.7
Older players might be expected to decline; but with reduced minutes, they might be as productive per minute. And this team isn't especially old on avg, so an overall decline might not be expected anyway.
Joe Johnson takes a hit on minutes, from 32 down to 28. He's also a slightly below avg player; but the only player listed as SG.
In fact, I don't have enough minutes at guard here. Unless Pierce plays some.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Sat Oct 19, 2013 12:01 am
by Mike G
I've got the Wolves at 47 wins -- apparently high, relative to Vegas. Others have them at 49 to 57.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Sat Oct 19, 2013 10:42 pm
by Dr Positivity
Almost all the stat-based predictions I've seen have MEM dropping, can anyone explain why that is happening? Is it all Zbo's age? Because on paper getting rid of half of season of Gay, Arthur, Speights (all anti advanced stats players) and adding 2x the Ed Davis, Kosta Koufos (who I have as a 7 W center and borderline star last year, potentially HUGE addition), Mike Miller makes them look like a home run to me. To me the reasons to doubt MEM wouldn't be captured in stats, such as arguing the increased possession may hurt Gasol and Conley's eff. or that Koufos was a product of his system. If Koufos, Davis, Miller, Pondexter all have 115 ORTG+ seasons and Gasol/Conley/the defense are as good, I'd actually predict mid 60s for them
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 3:53 am
by Kevin Pelton
Dr Positivity wrote:To me the reasons to doubt MEM wouldn't be captured in stats, such as arguing the increased possession may hurt Gasol and Conley's eff.
Just the opposite in my case; that adjustment is built into SCHOENE, but those guys managed not to lose any efficiency after the trade last year. So that's one reason they regress a bit. Aging for Randolph and Prince is also a big factor, and the last one is the tendency for elite defenses to regress to the mean more than elite offenses.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 11:37 am
by Mike G
Last year they won 54, same as their pt-diff would expect; so it's not that.
Their top 7 guys missed a total of 16 games last year, which seems unlikely to repeat. That's the biggest reason I drop them to 52 this year.
Do betting types generally figure a coaching change = fewer wins? The Grizz had a pretty good coach, I thought. Never heard of this new guy, Joerger.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:09 pm
by nbacouchside
Mike G wrote:Last year they won 54, same as their pt-diff would expect; so it's not that.
Their top 7 guys missed a total of 16 games last year, which seems unlikely to repeat. That's the biggest reason I drop them to 52 this year.
Do betting types generally figure a coaching change = fewer wins? The Grizz had a pretty good coach, I thought. Never heard of this new guy, Joerger.
Joerger has been pretty great at the levels of coaching he's been in so far. He's arguably one of the most successful minor league professional head coaches ever. "So did Joerger, who won five championships in seven seasons as a head coach in the IBA, CBA and D-League -- all before turning 35 years old."
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_ ... head-coach
Although from a team regular season wins perspective he might cost the Grizz a few wins here and there by not playing starters to the same level that Hollins did.
http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/ ... llins-did/
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:26 pm
by nbacouchside
FWIW- here are my predictions:
Code: Select all
╔═══════════════════════╦══════╗
║ Team ║ Wins ║
╠═══════════════════════╬══════╣
║ Miami Heat ║ 58 ║
║ Houston Rockets ║ 56 ║
║ San Antonio Spurs ║ 56 ║
║ Chicago Bulls ║ 54 ║
║ Indiana Pacers ║ 54 ║
║ L.A. Clippers ║ 54 ║
║ Brooklyn Nets ║ 53 ║
║ Oklahoma City Thunder ║ 53 ║
║ Memphis Grizzlies ║ 52 ║
║ Golden State Warriors ║ 47 ║
║ Denver Nuggets ║ 46 ║
║ Atlanta Hawks ║ 44 ║
║ New York Knicks ║ 44 ║
║ Dallas Mavs ║ 42 ║
║ Cleveland Cavs ║ 40 ║
║ Toronto Raptors ║ 40 ║
║ Portland Blazers ║ 38 ║
║ Minnesota T-Wolves ║ 36 ║
║ Detroit Pistons ║ 35 ║
║ New Orleans Pelicans ║ 35 ║
║ Utah Jazz ║ 35 ║
║ Milwaukee Bucks ║ 34 ║
║ Washington Wizards ║ 33 ║
║ Charlotte Bobcats ║ 31 ║
║ Phoenix Suns ║ 29 ║
║ Sacramento Kings ║ 29 ║
║ Boston Celtics ║ 28 ║
║ L.A. Lakers ║ 28 ║
║ Orlando Magic ║ 26 ║
║ Philadelphia Sixers ║ 20 ║
╚═══════════════════════╩══════╝
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 12:46 am
by Toast
Couchside -
There's a pretty significant difference between this version of your predictions and one posted on your site earlier this year. Specifically:
Detroit
Indiana
T-Wolves
Any reason why?
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:42 am
by nbacouchside
I did a run through with a different stat that I liked the looks of just a little better than the numbers I was using from bbstats (basically a blend of xRAPM, RAPM, IPV, ASPM, ezPM, James Brocato's Expected Impact), added an aging curve, and then ran it through my schedule spreadsheet and incorporated Evan Zamir's work ridge regressing the home court advantage of all the teams. I also fudged a little on the Sixers by making everyone about 15% worse than the raw numbers would indicate because they don't appear interested in trying to win and I think the fits of a lot of the players within their roles is very bad- so they are basically overmatched relative to their ideal roles and thus I think their per minute impact will suffer and 15% seemed as good a deflator as any for that sort of thing.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:35 pm
by nbacouchside
As to why those teams in particular moved around a bunch. The blend liked the Pacers better than the bbstats prediction for xRAPM AND the Pacers homecourt advantage is very strong. The Pistons and Wolves suffered from bad HCA, according to Evan's numbers. I may need to mean-regress the HCA rankings, though, so that they aren't skewing things quite so hard.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:33 pm
by Mike G
If you guys keep copying the entire post you're replying to, you realize it approaches infinite size?
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Thu Oct 24, 2013 2:23 am
by nbacouchside
That's a good point. I'll stop doing that.
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Thu Oct 24, 2013 10:16 am
by Mike G
I fixed 'em. Honestly, it's not just the tedious extra scrolling thru the thread, there's the multiple appearances of identical tables that I'm trying to keep track of.
New comments get buried in repeats of old ones.
Anyone who updates their predictions: make sure those are clearly identified and submitted before the season starts. That would seem to be Oct. 30 (next Wed.)
Also, you might wish to clarify what system(s) you've used, if any. We have a good history here of testing systems this way. It's mostly luck, though (since I never win it.)
Re: Predictions 2013-14
Posted: Thu Oct 24, 2013 12:49 pm
by v-zero
Hopeful of getting mine up on the eve of the season start. It would be quite easy to run some sims to ascertain some idea of luck vs skill, if you're interested.