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Re: 2014 playoff summaries and misc.
Posted: Wed May 21, 2014 3:11 pm
by Mike G
-- see previous post --
Only half as many top rebounders this year as we'd expect?
Among players with >300 playoff minutes last year and this year, last year's best rebounders:
Code: Select all
2013 TReb% 2014
16.7 Duncan 13.9
15.9 Hibbert 11.3
14.1 Leonard 12.9
14.1 Ibaka 12.3
13.7 Bosh 10.0
12.6 Stephenson 11.3
12.4 LeBron 11.3
12.3 D West 10.5
11.5 Durant 12.2
10.6 George 11.5
13.4 avg 11.7
Last year's top 8 have all dropped off this year. On average, down by 16%
Are the best rebounding teams all in the playoffs this year? Is a faster pace giving a higher share of rebounds to perimeter guys?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Re: 2014 playoff summaries and misc.
Posted: Fri May 23, 2014 1:46 pm
by Mike G
Last year, after one game in the NBA Finals, Danny Green had hit .432 from the arc in playoffs. He then hit 5-5 and 7-9 in the next 2 games.
This year, going into the Western finals, he'd hit .432 of his threes; then shot 4-5 and 7-10 to open the series.
His attempts and minutes are down this year -- from 4.9 per game to 3.7; minutes/G from 30 to 22
After last year's outburst, he hit .423 of his remaining threes.
Spurs have gained a point per minute when he's on the floor in games 1-2.
He hasn't attempted a FT in over 170 minutes.
Re: 2014 playoff summaries and misc.
Posted: Tue May 27, 2014 2:56 pm
by Mike G
Mike G wrote:Mike G wrote:Best postseasons in the last 10 years, by Win Shares per 48. Minimum 350 minutes.
Per 36 minute rates are shown.
Code: Select all
playoffs yr tm G Min Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk PER ws/48
LeBron 2009 Cle 14 580 30.7 7.9 6.3 1.4 .7 37.4 .399
LeBron * 2014 Mia 9 359 27.1 6.4 4.2 1.5 .4 32.8 .331
C Paul 2008 NOH 12 486 21.4 4.4 10.0 2.1 .1 30.7 .289
...
After 2 games of the ECF, LeBron's ws/48 are at .296, his PER at 31.3
Both are still good for #2 in the era.
Another 2 games in, LeBron is at 32.2 and .307
Re: 2014 playoff summaries and misc.
Posted: Fri May 30, 2014 12:15 pm
by Mike G
After 5 games of the WCF, the Spurs' rotation players vs Dal (7 G), Por (5), and OKC (5).
Standardized per36 minute rates are shown.
Code: Select all
Tim Duncan
eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWins
.111 35 .599 18.3 9.4 1.5 2.7 .2 .8 1.9 0 1.52 .77
.099 32 .489 15.0 8.9 3.1 2.3 .5 .5 1.6 0 1.46 .49
.134 28 .547 24.0 12.3 2.9 2.6 .0 1.8 1.0 0 2.27 .67
Tony Parker
.087 33 .509 21.7 3.0 6.0 1.9 .5 3.6 .2 3 1.26 .61
.113 29 .541 27.8 2.9 6.8 2.5 1.0 4.2 .0 3 1.88 .57
.077 30 .511 18.7 2.9 8.2 1.5 1.0 3.5 .0 1 1.25 .39
Kawhi Leonard
eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWins
.048 33 .546 13.0 8.8 1.2 2.9 1.3 2.2 .2 6 .71 .34
.154 30 .654 24.3 8.8 1.4 2.7 3.4 .0 1.0 9 2.44 .77
.059 29 .514 13.6 5.9 3.2 2.8 2.0 1.3 .8 4 .99 .30
Tiago Splitter
.097 27 .658 16.4 12.8 3.3 4.4 1.3 1.2 .2 0 1.70 .68
.053 28 .540 9.7 7.4 3.5 3.7 1.6 .6 .3 0 .93 .27
.063 18 .651 13.2 12.2 3.0 2.4 .0 1.6 2.0 0 1.65 .32
Manu Ginobili
eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWins
.112 27 .599 25.3 5.0 6.1 3.1 2.9 4.3 .2 14 1.97 .79
.030 23 .384 11.1 5.1 5.9 2.3 1.8 3.8 .0 2 .64 .15
.125 21 .745 33.5 3.5 6.1 5.0 1.7 1.0 .0 14 2.89 .63
Danny Green
.040 22 .758 14.3 5.5 1.3 2.7 1.2 1.3 2.0 11 .89 .28
.040 23 .537 13.3 5.8 1.3 3.5 1.6 1.0 .9 8 .83 .20
.069 24 .705 21.5 4.9 1.0 3.4 2.5 1.3 .6 18 1.39 .34
Boris Diaw
eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWins
.039 23 .633 13.4 4.5 4.6 3.2 .9 1.1 .0 5 .82 .28
.048 21 .629 17.5 5.1 3.5 4.7 .6 1.7 .3 2 1.08 .24
.075 25 .552 16.3 8.3 5.0 1.1 .8 2.3 .3 5 1.45 .38
Marco Belinelli
-.008 13 .458 6.1 4.9 .8 2.9 .0 .8 .0 4 -.28 -.05
.051 21 .653 17.7 4.8 2.2 1.9 .6 .0 .0 6 1.15 .25
.009 18 .509 10.8 6.8 3.0 2.3 .0 2.7 .0 1 .25 .05
Patrick Mills
eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s e480 eWins
.011 16 .456 10.9 3.8 3.3 3.0 1.8 2.5 .0 6 .33 .08
.065 15 .663 31.1 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.2 1.4 .4 8 2.12 .33
.008 14 .420 8.5 4.7 3.9 4.0 .5 .5 .0 5 .28 .04
All 9 players have been above-avg (e480 > 1.00) in at least one series.
None have been very consistent between series, except that Diaw has gotten consistently stronger.
Ginobili has just 3 TO vs Okl.
Re: 2014 playoff summaries and misc.
Posted: Sat May 31, 2014 5:23 pm
by Mike G
Pacers' numbers thru 3 rounds:
Code: Select all
Paul George
opp mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eWins
Atl 41 .593 28.1 9.6 3.8 2.4 2.2 2.3 .5 2.40 1.42
Was 42 .536 19.9 6.3 2.9 2.8 1.9 2.3 .3 1.36 .72
Mia 41 .571 23.0 6.0 3.9 2.5 1.6 2.7 .1 1.60 .81
David West
Atl 36 .517 15.3 7.1 4.6 2.9 1.3 2.7 1.6 1.11 .58
Was 37 .480 17.1 6.8 4.7 2.6 .2 1.7 .3 1.21 .56
Mia 36 .581 17.9 9.4 3.4 3.6 .7 2.9 .3 1.26 .56
Lance Stephenson
opp mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eWins
Atl 34 .552 19.8 9.5 3.0 2.7 .9 3.0 .4 1.33 .67
Was 37 .472 12.0 6.4 6.0 2.3 .7 2.4 .2 .89 .42
Mia 40 .564 13.1 6.6 5.0 3.5 .9 2.2 .0 .87 .44
Roy Hibbert
Atl 22 .397 7.2 6.5 .7 5.4 .0 2.7 2.2 -.21 -.07
Was 30 .592 18.2 7.6 1.2 4.5 .4 .0 2.6 1.56 .59
Mia 35 .492 10.4 10.3 1.8 3.2 .4 1.5 .7 .71 .31
George Hill
opp mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eWins
Atl 37 .552 15.4 3.5 3.7 2.4 .8 1.7 .1 .71 .38
Was 36 .551 14.1 4.6 3.7 2.6 1.5 1.6 .3 .91 .41
Mia 36 .566 11.6 4.9 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.6 .2 .46 .21
C.J. Watson
opp mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eWins
Atl 22 .548 15.8 4.9 2.2 3.9 2.3 1.3 .2 .90 .29
Was 13 .475 14.4 4.3 2.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 .0 .75 .12
Mia 19 .500 6.0 4.3 1.0 2.2 .6 1.7 .0 -.33 -.08
Luis Scola
opp mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eWins
Atl 13 .506 20.4 7.2 1.6 3.8 1.3 .9 .0 1.34 .25
Was 13 .446 14.8 7.2 .5 5.7 1.3 1.9 1.3 .71 .12
Mia 13 .471 11.9 6.2 2.1 3.1 .0 .5 .0 .49 .08
Evan Turner
Atl 9 .622 21.6 6.6 5.5 3.5 .6 3.8 .0 1.27 .17
Was 14 .394 5.3 6.8 4.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 .0 .48 .08
Mia
Ian Mahinmi
opp mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eWins
Atl 18 .404 2.6 7.1 .3 6.1 .6 1.3 3.4 -.19 -.05
Was 12 .586 9.4 6.6 .0 5.7 1.4 .0 1.0 .48 .07
Mia 7 .600 7.8 8.8 1.8 3.9 .0 2.5 1.5 .28 .03
Rasual Butler
Atl 1 .000 .0 6.7 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.54 -.01
Was 2 1.00 11.7 4.5 4.7 .0 .0 .0 3.9 2.25 .04
Mia 9 .654 10.3 3.1 .0 1.8 .6 .7 .0 -.04 .00
Most players follow the trend of worsening numbers in successive playoff rounds. Notable exeption: David West.
Miami Heat going into the Finals:
Code: Select all
LeBron James
opp mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eWins
Cha 39 .652 37.3 8.4 7.1 1.6 2.1 2.8 .2 3.50 1.14
Brk 40 .664 34.2 7.1 4.2 2.2 1.1 2.1 .5 2.68 1.13
Ind 36 .626 28.9 8.1 7.6 2.9 2.0 3.7 .9 2.72 1.22
Dwyane Wade
Cha 33 .538 22.5 4.0 5.9 3.3 1.4 2.8 .3 1.55 .43
Brk 35 .548 21.1 4.9 6.4 2.9 1.5 2.4 .6 1.65 .60
Ind 36 .607 24.3 5.6 6.7 2.6 1.7 3.0 .2 1.98 .88
Chris Bosh
opp mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eWins
Cha 32 .624 18.1 6.7 2.4 3.1 .9 .9 1.2 1.30 .35
Brk 36 .598 14.7 7.3 .9 1.4 .8 .6 2.0 1.09 .41
Ind 33 .545 17.8 8.5 1.8 4.0 1.1 .8 .9 1.38 .56
Mario Chalmers
Cha 26 .537 13.8 4.0 7.1 1.8 .7 .8 .4 1.18 .25
Brk 30 .529 9.5 3.7 8.1 3.5 2.0 2.1 .2 .88 .27
Ind 28 .557 8.3 4.7 6.6 2.9 .9 2.4 .7 .56 .19
Chris Andersen
opp mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eWins
Cha 20 .654 15.5 10.4 1.1 2.4 .4 .4 2.1 1.41 .24
Brk 13 .615 9.1 14.8 .0 3.1 .5 1.1 3.7 1.30 .17
Ind 14 .725 15.3 17.3 1.7 3.4 .4 1.4 1.3 1.86 .32
Ray Allen
Cha 20 .342 4.2 5.0 3.5 2.8 .8 2.7 .0 -.33 -.06
Brk 27 .657 19.7 7.6 3.2 2.6 .5 1.1 .3 1.45 .40
Ind 26 .598 13.4 4.7 2.4 2.2 .4 1.2 .4 .61 .20
Norris Cole
opp mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eWins
Cha 28 .673 12.2 1.4 4.2 2.1 .6 1.3 .3 .37 .09
Brk 16 .467 5.4 3.2 2.4 3.4 .4 1.8 .0 -.36 -.06
Ind 22 .580 8.5 2.0 4.8 2.9 .8 1.5 .0 .17 .05
Rashard Lewis
Cha 8 .364 5.7 11.6 1.3 6.6 .9 1.0 1.9 .51 .03
Brk 14 .433 4.8 5.8 .7 2.3 1.4 .5 .0 -.08 -.01
Ind 17 .554 10.4 3.7 .5 2.6 1.1 .8 .7 .19 .04
Shane Battier
opp mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eWins
Brk 19 .577 5.9 2.5 1.7 2.4 1.2 .8 .4 -.15 -.03
Ind 12 .815 12.8 2.4 .6 5.7 .5 1.5 .0 -.04 -.01
Udonis Haslem
Cha 16 .308 3.0 10.2 1.6 5.7 .6 .6 1.2 .12 .02
Brk
Ind 13 .591 11.4 9.6 1.2 5.9 .0 .0 .0 .66 .11
James Jones
Cha 16 .600 13.4 3.4 2.8 3.5 1.5 .0 .5 .77 .10
Brk 8 .750 11.8 2.1 1.2 5.1 .0 .0 .9 .21 .02
Ind
What does Chris Andersen do so badly that he can't go more than 20 mpg?
D Wade increases his minutes and his play in each round so far.
Rashard Lewis' career is at least momentarily revived.
Heat are averaging almost 5 above-avg players per series.
Re: 2014 playoff summaries and misc.
Posted: Sat May 31, 2014 9:24 pm
by xkonk
I would guess that Birdman's main issue is that he's a tall guy on a smallball team that already has Chris Bosh.
Re: 2014 playoff summaries and misc.
Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2014 12:20 pm
by Mike G
The Spurs have outscored playoff opponents by 8 ppg. Miami has been better by 7 ppg. Next best is the Clipps at +2.0
But how do they rank when you consider the competition?
There are a few ways to do this; but relative to their playoff opponents' regular-season SRS, they rank like this:
Code: Select all
2014 season - playoffs - - - - - - - - - - - -
Team SRS MOV oppSRS SRS diff impr
SAS 8.00 8.0 4.59 12.59 4.59 82.5
LAC 7.27 2.0 5.85 7.85 .58 7.5
Mia 4.15 7.0 .69 7.69 3.54 53.1
Dal 2.91 -2.0 8.00 6.00 3.09 21.6
Hou 5.06 .3 4.44 4.74 -.32 -1.9
Okl 6.66 -1.0 5.63 4.63 -2.03 -38.7
Was .48 .9 2.53 3.43 2.95 32.4
GSW 5.15 -4.5 7.27 2.77 -2.38 -16.7
Team SRS MOV oppSRS SRS diff impr
Atl -.88 -1.0 3.63 2.63 3.51 24.6
Brk -1.58 -1.3 3.22 1.92 3.50 42.0
Mem 2.18 -5.4 6.66 1.26 -.92 -6.4
Por 4.44 -6.2 6.40 .20 -4.24 -46.7
Ind 3.63 -1.0 1.14 .14 -3.49 -66.4
Tor 2.55 -1.6 -1.58 -3.18 -5.73 -40.1
Chi 1.20 -4.6 .48 -4.12 -5.32 -26.6
Cha -.89 -9.8 4.15 -5.65 -4.76 -19.0
avg 3.15 -1.26 3.94 2.68 -.47 .08
Columns: RS SRS, PO margin of victory, PO opponents' (games weighted) RS SRS, PO SRS = MOV + oppSRS, diff = PO SRS - RS SRS , impr = diff * G
The averages are for all teams weighed equally.
Multiplied by games, the Pacers are these playoffs biggest underachievers, in points for/against, relative to their regular season.
The Clipps handled the Warriors by 4.5 ppg and then were outscored by the Thunder by 1 ppg.
Re: 2014 playoff summaries and misc.
Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2014 2:04 pm
by Mike G
Kevin Durant ended up playing 815 playoff minutes over 19 games, averaging 29.6 pts, 8.9 reb, and 3.9 ast.
The only other players with such averages over so many minutes: Olajuwon in 1995 and LeBron in 2012 -- both in title runs.
http://bkref.com/tiny/YuQ6F
Requiring just 600 minutes, add another LeBron year (2006), Kareem in 1974; and in the ABA, Connie Hawkins in 1968 and George McGinnis, 1975.
Westbrook went 735 minutes, with 26.7, 7.3, 8.1 averages.
In 15+ games, only McGinnis (ABA) had done this.
In at least 10 games, you get a couple of Oscars.
http://bkref.com/tiny/kjLvW
Re: 2014 playoff summaries and misc.
Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2014 1:02 am
by Mike G
After 2 games of the Finals:
Code: Select all
2014 playoffs tm Min e480 eWins WS WS/48 PER
LeBron James Mia 645 2.88 3.87 3.92 .292 31.5
Russell Westbrook Okl 735 2.44 3.62 2.54 .166 24.9
Kevin Durant Okl 815 2.07 3.42 2.46 .145 22.7
Paul George Ind 781 1.81 2.95 2.75 .169 20.6
Tim Duncan SAS 658 1.75 2.38 2.78 .203 21.5
Dwyane Wade Mia 588 1.65 2.02 1.60 .131 20.3
Chris Paul LAC 472 2.00 1.97 1.94 .197 23.7
Manu Ginobili SAS 503 1.82 1.89 2.01 .192 21.5
Tony Parker SAS 615 1.40 1.79 .88 .069 16.3
Blake Griffin LAC 478 1.73 1.72 1.41 .142 21.7
2014 playoffs tm Min e480 eWins WS WS/48 PER
David West Ind 687 1.19 1.70 1.33 .093 15.5
Kawhi Leonard SAS 624 1.18 1.53 1.96 .151 16.2
Lance Stephenson Ind 705 1.04 1.52 1.25 .085 13.6
Chris Bosh Mia 574 1.27 1.51 2.04 .171 19.7
LaMarcus Aldridge Por 441 1.69 1.50 .89 .097 21.1
Tiago Splitter SAS 474 1.42 1.40 2.27 .230 18.7
Joe Johnson Brk 469 1.34 1.31 1.49 .153 20.3
Bradley Beal Was 458 1.31 1.24 1.44 .151 17.0
Damian Lillard Por 466 1.32 1.23 1.26 .130 19.4
Serge Ibaka Okl 581 .99 1.16 1.73 .143 16.6
2014 playoffs tm Min e480 eWins WS WS/48 PER
Boris Diaw SAS 493 1.13 1.15 1.68 .164 16.1
Dwight Howard Hou 231 2.48 1.13 .90 .186 27.2
DeAndre Jordan LAC 442 1.23 1.13 1.20 .130 16.5
Trevor Ariza Was 407 1.30 1.09 1.71 .202 17.6
John Wall Was 420 1.26 1.09 .59 .067 14.2
Danny Green SAS 469 1.03 1.00 1.69 .173 16.3
Paul Millsap Atl 267 1.80 1.00 .86 .154 20.0
George Hill Ind 687 .69 .99 1.49 .104 12.7
Marcin Gortat Was 382 1.24 .98 1.03 .130 16.5
Deron Williams Brk 428 1.09 .97 .55 .062 14.6