APBRmetrics

Posted: **Mon Jun 15, 2015 10:09 pm**

Top postseason VORP since 1974, listing only the best by each player.

VORP   player  year      VORP   player   year
2.9   LeBron   2009      2.0   B Wallace 2004
2.8   Jordan   1991      2.0   P Gasol   2009
2.8   Olajuwon 1994      2.0   Durant    2012
2.6   Duncan   2003      2.0   Westbrook 2014
2.6   Wade     2006      1.9   Erving    1982
2.4   Kareem   1974      1.9   Ho Grant  1992
2.3   Isiah    1988      1.9   Ginobili  2005
2.2   Bird     1984      1.8   Drexler   1990
2.2   Pippen   1992      1.8   Payton    1996
2.2   Barkley  1993      1.8   Shaq      2000
2.2   Kobe     2009      1.8   Iverson   2001
2.1   Magic    1991      1.8   Kidd      2002
2.1   Billups  2005      1.7   Havlicek  1974
2.1   Garnett  2008      1.7   Barry     1975
2.1   Dwight   2009      1.7   R Allen   2001
2.1   Curry    2015*     1.7   Rondo     2010

Curry has 2.1 in 20 games, so another .1 or .2 might happen.

EDIT: Many of these numbers are incorrect, as they were in the b-r.com database. Scroll down for updated values.

Posted: **Tue Jun 23, 2015 2:56 am**

There are some bizarre and seemingly random errors at b-r.com in the playoff VORP column.
For regular seasons, player VORP is roughly = (BPM+2)*Min/3969. The divisor 3969 = 48.4*82 (TmMin for a season).
From a list of top 100 Win Shares in a postseason, there are some large discrepancies. VORP is that shown at b-r.com, and vorp is calculated by the above formula.

Code: Select all

Player    yr    Min   BPM   VORP   vorp   diff
Jordan   1990   674   14.3    .5   2.76   -2.3
LeBron   2012   983   11.0   1.7   3.21   -1.5
Shaq     1995   805    5.1    .2   1.44   -1.2
Bird     1986   770   10.3   1.2   2.38   -1.2
K Malone 1998   795    6.9    .6   1.78   -1.2

Kareem   1977   467   14.8    .9   1.97   -1.1
Drexler  1995   849    5.7    .6   1.64   -1.0
Duncan   2007   736    7.2    .7   1.70   -1.0
Dirk     2006   983    7.9   1.5   2.45   -.9
Reggie   2000   892    5.3    .7   1.64   -.9

Duncan   2003  1021   11.6   2.6   3.49   -.9
KMalone  1992   688    6.5    .6   1.47   -.9
Olajuwon 1986   766    7.4   1.0   1.81   -.8
Ewing    1994  1032    4.4    .9   1.66   -.8
Bird     1984   961   10.2   2.2   2.95   -.7

When I sort by the ratio of vorp/VORP, I see that certain teams -- Finalists mostly -- are afflicted by this situation. Wade in 2012, Oakley in '94, McHale in '86, also got only about half their expected VORP.

All the big errors are deficits.

Posted: **Mon Jun 29, 2015 9:56 pm**

It took almost a week, but b-r.com has corrected a bunch of playoff VORP numbers. Players now rank a bit differently than they did yesterday.
Since I had recorded the uncorrected version (called here vorp0), we can see how the totals and rankings have changed. Since 1974:

Code: Select all

playoffs  VORP    V   v0  vorp0     playoffs   VORP   V   v0 vorp0
LeBron    23.7    1    1   22.0      Reggie    8.4   26   34   6.0
Jordan    22.8    2    2   19.1      Billups   8.4   27   16   8.4
Duncan    18.4    3    4   14.5      Pierce    8.3   28   27   6.8
Magic     17.8    4    3   17.8      B Wallace 8.3   29   18   8.3
Pippen    16.1    5    5   14.2      McHale    7.7   30   33   6.0
Bird      15.4    6    8   12.3      P Gasol   7.3   31   29   6.7
Shaq      15.0    7    7   12.4      Hornacek  7.1   32   32   6.3
Kobe      14.0    8    6   12.6      R Wallace 6.9   33   31   6.7
Olajuwon  13.2    9   10   11.1      Worthy    6.8   34   28   6.8
Kareem    13.2   10    9   12.0      Rondo     6.2   35   79   3.4
Horry     11.8   11   13    9.7      Cheeks    6.2   36   42   4.7
Barkley   11.3   12   11   10.3      C Paul    6.2   37   35   6.0
K Malone  11.2   13   19    8.1      Durant    5.8   38   40   4.8
Drexler   11.0   14   15    8.7      Payton    5.7   39   39   4.9
Kidd      10.9   15   12    9.9      Prince    5.6   40   37   5.6
Wade      10.7   16   14    8.9      M Cooper  5.6   41   36   5.6
Ginobili  10.2   17   17    8.3      Fisher    5.5   42   41   4.8
Stockton   9.9   18   23    7.6      Ewing     5.4   43      
Erving     9.5   19   21    7.6      Majerle   5.4   44   44   4.6
H Grant    9.3   20   24    7.2      Oakley    5.3   45   95   3.0
Isiah      9.0   21   20    7.8      B Jones   5.2   46   50   4.2
Dirk       8.9   22   30    6.7      Unseld    5.2   47   38   5.1
Garnett    8.8   23   25    6.9      Parish    5.1   48   59   3.9
Robinson   8.8   24   22    7.6      D Johnson 5.1   49   53   4.1
R Allen    8.5   25   26    6.8      Rodman    5.1   50   47   4.5

Almost everyone with many playoff appearances had some undercounted VORP.
Ewing did not place in the top 100 previously; now ranks 43rd.

Posted: **Fri Jul 10, 2015 9:18 pm**

Leaving the table at top of this page for fun, note that the best playoff VORP totals below didn't appear earlier.
On the left are the top 25 postseasons since 1974; on the right are other players' top playoff VORP.

Code: Select all

playoffs  yr   G   VORP   playoffs   yr   G  VORP  
Duncan   2003  24  3.5     Billups  2005  25  2.1
LeBron   2012  23  3.2     Drexler  1992  21  2.1
Bird     1984  23  2.9     Garnett  2008  26  2.1
LeBron   2009  14  2.9     Ginobili 2005  23  2.1
LeBron   2013  23  2.9     Dwight   2009  23  2.1
Jordan   1990  16  2.8     Magic    1991  19  2.1
Jordan   1991  17  2.8     Durant   2012  20  2.0
Olajuwon 1994  23  2.8     P Gasol  2009  23  2.0
LeBron   2015  20  2.7    B Wallace 2004  23  2.0
Jordan   1989  17  2.7    Westbrook 2014  19  2.0
Jordan   1992  22  2.7     Erving   1982  21  1.9
Wade     2006  23  2.6     Ho Grant 1992  22  1.9
Kareem   1974  16  2.5     Rondo    2012  19  1.9
Jordan   1993  19  2.5     Iverson  2001  22  1.8
Bird     1986  18  2.4     Kidd     2002  20  1.8
LeBron   2014  20  2.4     K Malone 1998  20  1.8
LeBron   2007  20  2.4     Paul     2008  12  1.8
Dirk     2006  23  2.4     Payton   1996  21  1.8
LeBron   2011  21  2.3     R Allen  2001  18  1.7
Shaq     2000  23  2.3     Barry    1975  17  1.7
Isiah    1988  23  2.3     Ewing    1994  25  1.7
Barkley  1993  24  2.2     Havlicek 1974  18  1.7
Kobe     2009  23  2.2     Walton   1977  19  1.7
Curry    2015  21  2.2     Cowens   1976  18  1.6
Jordan   1997  19  2.2     D Green  2015  21  1.6
Pippen   1992  22  2.2     Hornacek 1996  18  1.6

http://bkref.com/tiny/XKHTZ
Hornacek makes #90 on the list.
I didn't re-calculate them, so they're alphabetical by 1/10 of a vorp.
Others who hit 1.6 -- Horry, Kawhi, Rashard, Reggie, Robert Reid, and Stockton.

Back in '03, I said Duncan had the greatest playoffs of all time. Dean Oliver said no, he didn't.

Posted: **Sat Jul 11, 2015 1:33 pm**

Best postseasons since 1974 by xyz = (WS*VORP*PER)^(1/3)

Code: Select all

xyz      playoffs        yr     G   Min    PER   WS   WS/48   BPM   VORP
8.37   Tim Duncan       2003   24  1021   28.4   5.9   .279   11.6   3.5
8.25   LeBron James     2012   23   983   30.3   5.8   .284   11.0   3.2
8.04   LeBron James     2009   14   580   37.4   4.8   .399   18.2   2.9
7.55   Michael Jordan   1991   17   689   32.0   4.8   .333   13.8   2.8
7.51   LeBron James     2013   23   960   28.1   5.2   .260   10.2   2.9

7.10   Larry Bird       1984   23   961   26.3   4.7   .236   10.2   2.9
7.08   Michael Jordan   1990   16   674   31.7   4.0   .284   14.3   2.8
7.03   Dirk Nowitzki    2006   23   983   26.8   5.4   .263    7.9   2.4
6.95   Dwyane Wade      2006   23   959   26.9   4.8   .240    8.9   2.6
6.93   Hakeem Olajuwon  1994   23   989   27.7   4.3   .208    9.1   2.8

xyz      playoffs        yr     G   Min    PER   WS   WS/48   BPM   VORP
6.93 Kareem AbdulJabbar 1974   16   758   28.3   4.7   .297   11.3   2.5
6.92   Michael Jordan   1993   19   783   30.1   4.4   .270   10.9   2.5
6.91   Shaquille O'Neal 2000   23  1000   30.5   4.7   .224    7.2   2.3
6.86   Michael Jordan   1989   17   718   29.9   4.0   .270   12.8   2.7
6.85   LeBron James     2014   20   763   31.1   4.3   .270   10.4   2.4

6.70   Michael Jordan   1992   22   920   27.2   4.1   .216    9.6   2.7
6.52   Kobe Bryant      2009   23   940   26.8   4.7   .238    7.5   2.2
6.32   Charles Barkley  1993   24  1026   24.9   4.6   .215    6.8   2.2
6.24   Michael Jordan   1998   21   872   28.1   4.8   .265    6.2   1.8
6.22   Dwight Howard    2009   23   903   25.5   4.5   .241    7.1   2.1

xyz      playoffs        yr     G   Min    PER   WS   WS/48   BPM   VORP
6.22   Larry Bird       1986   18   770   23.9   4.2   .263   10.3   2.4
6.20   Michael Jordan   1996   18   733   26.7   4.7   .306    8.1   1.9
6.15   Michael Jordan   1997   19   804   27.1   3.9   .235    8.7   2.2
6.04   Kevin Durant     2012   20   837   27.5   4.0   .231    7.3   2.0
6.03   Manu Ginobili    2005   23   772   24.8   4.2   .260    8.7   2.1

5.96   LeBron James     2007   20   893   23.9   3.7   .200    8.5   2.4
5.95   Stephen Curry    2015   21   826   24.5   3.9   .228    8.7   2.2
5.92 Kareem AbdulJabbar 1977   11   467   32.4   3.2   .332   14.8   2.0
5.92   LeBron James     2011   21   922   23.7   3.8   .198    7.8   2.3
5.90   LeBron James     2015   20   844   25.3   3.0   .173   11.0   2.7

LeBron's latest outing didn't get much respect from WS/48, and his PER was so-so. But only Duncan at #1 played as many minutes with a better BPM.

Posted: **Wed Jul 15, 2015 12:44 am**

Here's a Top 100 NBA Careers since 1974 -- careers are truncated before then, and no ABA numbers are included -- based on regular season and playoff PER, Win Shares, and VORP (from BPM).
xyz is the cube root of the product of those 3, for RS and for PO
PO xyz is multiplied by 3 and added to RS xyz (= tot)

Code: Select all

.                       Career Regular Seasons            Career Playoffs
tot    Player          PER    WS     VORP    xyz       PER   WS   VORP    xyz
174   Michael Jordan  27.9   214.0  104.4   85.4      28.6  39.8  22.8   29.6
166   LeBron James    27.7   178.9  101.0   79.4      27.4  36.9  23.7   28.8
152   Tim Duncan      24.5   201.2   86.9   75.4      24.6  37.5  18.4   25.7
140  Shaquille O'Neal 26.4   181.7   74.0   70.8      26.1  31.1  15.0   23.0
137   Magic Johnson   24.1   155.8   77.4   66.2      23.0  32.6  17.8   23.7

136   Karl Malone     23.9   234.6  102.5   83.1      21.1  23.0  11.2   17.6
134 Kareem Abd-Jabbar 23.7   190.1   86.0   72.9      22.7  27.7  13.2   20.2
128   Kobe Bryant     23.2   173.1   72.3   66.2      22.4  28.3  14.0   20.7
127  Charles Barkley  24.6   177.2   93.5   74.1      24.2  19.5  11.3   17.5
126  Hakeem Olajuwon  23.6   162.8   77.1   66.7      25.7  22.6  13.2   19.7

tot    11-20           PER    WS     VORP    xyz       PER   WS   VORP    xyz
125   Larry Bird      23.5   145.8   79.7   64.9      21.4  24.8  15.4   20.1
118   David Robinson  26.2   178.7   80.9   72.4      23.0  17.5   8.8   15.2
118   Kevin Garnett   22.8   190.4   93.7   74.1      21.1  16.4   8.8   14.5
117   Dirk Nowitzki   23.3   192.0   64.0   65.9      24.0  23.0   8.9   17.0
115   John Stockton   21.8   207.7   65.9   66.8      19.8  21.4   9.9   16.1

112   Scottie Pippen  18.6   125.1   69.6   54.5      18.4  23.6  16.1   19.1
105   Clyde Drexler   21.1   135.6   75.6   60.0      19.7  15.5  11.0   15.0
104   Dwyane Wade     25.0   108.9   54.8   53.0      22.7  19.8  10.7   16.9
103   Reggie Miller   18.4   174.4   63.2   58.8      19.5  19.9   8.4   14.8
100   Jason Kidd      17.9   138.6   78.2   57.9      17.1  14.5  10.9   13.9

tot   21-30            PER    WS     VORP    xyz       PER   WS   VORP    xyz
97   Paul Pierce      20.1   149.1   62.0   57.1      17.5  16.3   8.3   13.3
95   Ray Allen        18.6   145.1   58.1   53.9      16.3  18.0   8.5   13.6
94   Chris Paul       25.6   131.3   60.5   58.8      25.2  10.4   6.2   11.8
93   Julius Erving    22.0   106.2   51.6   49.4      20.0  16.4   9.5   14.6
92   Manu Ginobili    21.1    97.5   43.9   44.9      19.8  19.3  10.2   15.7

90   Pau Gasol        21.6   123.5   48.4   50.5      20.7  14.6   7.3   13.0
89  Chauncey Billups  18.8   120.8   37.6   44.0      19.1  20.6   8.4   14.9
87   Moses Malone     22.3   167.1   43.3   54.4      21.4  13.7   4.4   10.9
87   Horace Grant     16.0   118.2   44.4   43.8      15.7  20.0   9.3   14.3
86   Kevin McHale     20.0   113.0   33.9   42.5      19.4  20.7   7.7   14.6

tot   31-40            PER    WS     VORP    xyz       PER   WS   VORP    xyz
85   Gary Payton      18.9   145.5   63.0   55.7      15.4  11.1   5.7    9.9
82   Patrick Ewing    21.0   126.4   40.9   47.7      19.6  14.1   5.4   11.4
82   Robert Parish    19.2   147.0   41.5   48.9      16.6  15.6   5.1   11.0
79   Jeff Hornacek    17.7   108.9   43.2   43.7      16.5  14.4   7.1   11.9
79   Ben Wallace      15.5    93.5   47.6   41.0      16.2  15.4   8.3   12.7

79   Kevin Durant     24.7    93.4   35.3   43.3      24.4  12.1   5.8   12.0
77   Isiah Thomas     18.1    80.7   37.5   38.0      19.8  12.5   9.0   13.1
76   Shawn Marion     18.8   124.9   52.1   49.6      16.6   9.0   4.6    8.8
76   Rasheed Wallace  17.0   105.1   37.5   40.6      15.5  15.3   6.9   11.8
76   Dwight Howard    22.0   106.7   35.0   43.5      23.1  11.7   4.7   10.8

tot   41-50            PER    WS     VORP    xyz       PER   WS   VORP    xyz
75   Steve Nash       20.0   129.7   31.2   43.3      19.8  11.9   4.8   10.4
74   Robert Horry     13.4    66.3   32.0   30.5      14.4  18.2  11.8   14.6
74   Vince Carter     19.8   116.6   53.0   49.6      18.6   7.1   4.0    8.1
72   Maurice Cheeks   16.5   103.5   33.9   38.7      16.6  13.1   6.2   11.0
71   James Worthy     17.7    81.2   28.5   34.5      18.3  14.8   6.8   12.3

71   Bob Lanier       21.6    93.0   41.9   43.8      20.8   8.6   4.2    9.1
71   Allen Iverson    20.9    99.0   44.1   45.0      21.2   7.3   4.2    8.7
71   Larry Nance      19.9   109.6   47.9   47.1      18.1   7.4   3.6    7.8
70   Terry Porter     17.2   110.4   35.9   40.9      17.0  11.6   4.7    9.7
69   Vlade Divac      17.7    96.4   45.3   42.6      16.6   8.6   5.0    8.9

tot   51-60            PER    WS     VORP    xyz       PER   WS   VORP    xyz
69   Tracy McGrady    22.1    97.3   50.6   47.7      23.4   4.5   3.5    7.2
69   Dikembe Mutombo  17.2   117.0   38.2   42.5      17.8   9.9   3.7    8.7
68   Adrian Dantley   21.5   134.2   44.0   50.3      16.9   5.1   2.5    6.0
65   Bill Laimbeer    16.1   105.6   34.4   38.8      14.4  10.7   4.3    8.7
65   Chris Webber     20.9    84.7   45.9   43.3      18.9   5.5   3.6    7.2

65   Tony Parker      18.9   100.1   26.4   36.8      16.9  12.7   3.7    9.3
65   Eddie Jones      16.7   100.6   45.1   42.3      15.1   7.3   3.7    7.4
64   Bobby Jones      17.9    73.7   32.0   34.8      16.5  11.2   5.2    9.9
64   Shawn Kemp       19.1    89.5   27.3   36.0      20.5   9.5   4.2    9.4
63   Kevin Johnson    20.7    92.8   28.0   37.7      19.1   9.4   3.5    8.6

tot   61-70            PER    WS     VORP    xyz       PER   WS   VORP    xyz
63   Dennis Rodman    14.6    89.8   36.5   36.3      12.3  11.7   5.1    9.0
63   Sam Perkins      15.5   105.4   31.4   37.2      14.2  10.5   4.4    8.7
63   Jack Sikma       17.3   112.5   42.0   43.4      14.7   7.9   2.4    6.5
63   Charles Oakley   13.4    89.7   35.3   34.9      13.6  11.2   5.3    9.3
63   Elton Brand      20.6   109.5   45.3   46.8      19.8   4.1   1.8    5.3

62   Alex English     19.9   100.7   35.6   41.5      19.9   6.5   2.5    6.9
61   Sidney Moncrief  18.7    90.3   33.9   38.5      15.5   7.9   3.6    7.6
61   Lamar Odom       16.5    77.0   36.3   35.9      16.6   8.8   4.2    8.5
61   Jason Terry      16.8    97.6   34.0   38.2      15.5   8.0   3.7    7.7
61 Dominique Wilkins  21.6   117.5   41.8   47.3      18.7   3.6   1.5    4.7

tot   71-80            PER    WS     VORP    xyz       PER   WS   VORP    xyz
61   Hersey Hawkins   16.3    90.6   35.7   37.5      16.6   7.6   3.9    7.9
60   Dennis Johnson   14.6    82.6   23.6   30.5      14.4  13.2   5.1    9.9
60   Chris Bosh       20.6    99.6   25.6   37.5      18.4   9.4   2.5    7.6
60   Dan Majerle      13.8    78.5   35.6   33.8      13.1   9.5   5.4    8.8
60   Marques Johnson  20.1    79.8   33.6   37.8      19.1   6.7   3.0    7.3

59   Cedric Maxwell   16.4    78.5   28.8   33.3      16.1   9.7   4.2    8.7
59   Buck Williams    15.3   120.1   34.8   40.0      12.7   8.0   2.5    6.3
59   Baron Davis      17.8    63.1   34.1   33.7      21.4   6.8   4.0    8.3
59  Russell Westbrook 22.1    53.0   27.8   31.9      22.7   6.9   4.5    8.9
58   Rashard Lewis    16.8    90.9   34.1   37.3      15.3   6.7   3.4    7.0

tot   81-90            PER    WS     VORP    xyz       PER   WS   VORP    xyz
58   Mark Jackson     16.0    91.8   27.1   34.1      15.9   8.3   4.0    8.1
58   Detlef Schrempf  17.2   109.5   35.0   40.4      14.7   6.7   2.0    5.8
57   Alonzo Mourning  21.2    89.7   24.0   35.7      19.2   7.5   2.5    7.1
57   Wes Unseld       14.7    59.2   32.8   30.6      14.1   9.0   5.2    8.7
56   Ron Harper       15.6    65.8   32.0   32.0      15.2   8.1   4.4    8.2

56   Dale Davis       15.2    86.9   28.6   33.6      13.4   8.8   3.7    7.6
56   Grant Hill       19.0    99.9   42.5   43.2      18.1   2.3   1.9    4.3
56   Alvan Adams      18.3    73.5   39.3   37.5      17.3   4.7   2.9    6.2
56   Andre Iguodala   16.4    77.6   38.9   36.7      14.8   5.1   3.4    6.4
56   Rajon Rondo      16.7    46.6   19.0   24.5      18.4   9.7   6.2   10.3

tot   91-100           PER    WS     VORP    xyz       PER   WS   VORP    xyz
56   Chris Mullin     18.8    93.1   38.7   40.8      15.7   3.8   2.0    4.9
55   Marcus Camby     17.8    81.6   35.6   37.3      15.6   5.4   2.6    6.0
55   George Gervin    21.7    88.1   23.3   35.4      21.0   6.3   2.2    6.6
55   Terry Cummings   18.3    91.1   24.9   34.6      18.1   7.0   2.5    6.8
55   Michael Finley   16.0    85.2   29.2   34.1      13.9   6.9   3.5    6.9

55   Stephen Curry    21.7    53.7   25.8   31.1      22.2   6.4   3.5    7.9
55   Carmelo Anthony  21.2    86.0   25.6   36.0      19.9   5.7   2.1    6.2
55   Steve Smith      16.1    83.7   24.4   32.0      16.7   7.7   3.3    7.5
54   Artis Gilmore    20.2   107.4   39.6   44.1      16.2   2.7    .9    3.4
54   Derek Harper     16.0    86.8   30.2   34.7      14.2   6.5   2.7    6.3

"Candidates" were all players in the top 100 of either RS WS or RS VORP.
Additionally considered were players in top 50 of both PO WS and PO VORP.
Westbrook and Curry then were thrown in as well, making a pool of 130 players.

Posted: **Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:03 am**

Changing the playoff multiplier to 2, we get this ranking:

Code: Select all

1   Michael Jordan     11   Larry Bird
2   LeBron James       12   Kevin Garnett
3   Tim Duncan         13   David Robinson
4   Karl Malone        14   Dirk Nowitzki
5   Shaquille O'Neal   15   John Stockton
6   Magic Johnson      16   Scottie Pippen
7   Kareem Abd-Jabbar  17   Clyde Drexler
8   Charles Barkley    18   Reggie Miller
9   Kobe Bryant        19   Dwyane Wade
10   Hakeem Olajuwon   20   Jason Kidd
            
21   Paul Pierce       31   Kevin McHale
22   Chris Paul        32   Robert Parish
23   Ray Allen         33   Patrick Ewing
24   Julius Erving     34   Jeff Hornacek
25   Pau Gasol         35   Shawn Marion
26   Manu Ginobili     36   Kevin Durant
27   Moses Malone      37   Ben Wallace
28   Gary Payton       38   Vince Carter
29   Chauncey Billups  39   Dwight Howard
30   Horace Grant      40   Rasheed Wallace
            
41   Isiah Thomas      51   Dikembe Mutombo
42   Steve Nash        52   Robert Horry
43   Larry Nance       53   James Worthy
44   Allen Iverson     54   Chris Webber
45   Adrian Dantley    55   Elton Brand
46   Tracy McGrady     56   Eddie Jones
47   Bob Lanier        57   Dominique Wilkins
48   Maurice Cheeks    58   Jack Sikma
49   Vlade Divac       59   Bill Laimbeer
50   Terry Porter      60   Tony Parker
            
61   Alex English      71   Lamar Odom
62   Kevin Johnson     72   Buck Williams
63   Shawn Kemp        73   Chris Bosh
64   Bobby Jones       74   Marques Johnson
65   Sam Perkins       75   Detlef Schrempf
66   Dennis Rodman     76   Grant Hill
67   Sidney Moncrief   77   Rashard Lewis
68   Jason Terry       78   Dan Majerle
69   Charles Oakley    79   Artis Gilmore
70   Hersey Hawkins    80   Cedric Maxwell
            
81   Chris Mullin      91   George Gervin
82   Baron Davis       92   Carmelo Anthony
83   Dennis Johnson    93   Otis Thorpe
84   Mark Jackson      94   Andrei Kirilenko
85   Alonzo Mourning   95   Ron Harper
86   Alvan Adams       96   Terry Cummings
87   Russell Westbrook 97   Michael Finley
88   Andre Iguodala    98   Wes Unseld
89   Marcus Camby      99   Derek Harper
90   Dale Davis       100   Tim Hardaway

Posted: **Tue Aug 11, 2015 11:32 am**

Last season, the Kings led the league by a wide margin in FT/FGA, with .276 -- next highest was the Wolves' .240, and the league was .205 (almost the lowest ever).
In the last 12 seasons, what teams have had as high a FT/fga ratio? With the league-wide diminishing of FTA, it should be looked at relative to league avg -- shown below as tm/lg.
Annual high team FT/FGA and ratio vs league.

Code: Select all

year  FT/fga  tm   FT/fga  tm/lg
2004   .228   Uta   .275   1.21
2005   .245   Ind   .283   1.16
2006   .248   NYK   .303   1.22
2007   .246   Sac   .289   1.17
2008   .231   Sac   .276   1.19
2009   .236   Den   .290   1.23
2010   .228   Den   .290   1.27
2011   .229   OKC   .299   1.31
2012   .208   OKC   .269   1.29
2013   .204   OKC   .280   1.37
2014   .215   Hou   .275   1.28
2015   .205   Sac   .276   1.35

In the LeBron Era, only the 2013 Thunder have been as far ahead of the pack in FT prevalence.

Posted: **Wed Aug 19, 2015 12:32 am**

Referring again to the same list of player-careers since 1974 (3 posts up), we can see which players have made a habit of over- or under-achieving in playoffs.
On average, these 129 players' postseason PER is 1.05 lower than their regular seasons. WS/48 drops by an avg of .021
BPM, wonderfully, is adjusted to the level of the competition. And these above-average players tend to look better in playoffs, by an avg of about 0.3 on that metric.

For PER and WS/48, I've added these numbers (1.1 and .021) to their PO-RS difference -- thus the avg is zero for these. Left BPM diff. as is.
For this table, xyz = BPM + PER + 50*WS/48
... again referring to PO-RS difference.

Without regard to minutes played, playoff stepper-uppers on the left, disimprovers on the right:

Code: Select all

xyz    PO-RS          PER   WS/48  BPM       xyz    PO-RS            PER   WS/48    BPM
13.2  Baron Davis     4.7   .091   4.0      -7.2   Adrian Dantley   -3.6   -.059    -.7
9.7   Isiah Thomas    2.8   .055   4.2      -7.1   Artis Gilmore    -3.0   -.042   -2.0
7.2   Rajon Rondo     2.8   .031   2.9      -7.0  Clifford Robinson -2.8   -.054   -1.5
7.0   Hakeem Olajuwon 3.2   .033   2.2      -5.9   Sidney Moncrief  -2.2   -.048   -1.3
5.9   Shawn Kemp      2.5   .029   2.0      -5.8  Dominique Wilkins -1.9   -.048   -1.5
5.7   Robert Horry    2.1   .031   2.1      -5.8   Karl Malone      -1.8   -.044   -1.8
5.4   Ben Wallace     1.8   .045   1.4      -5.5   Andrei Kirilenko -2.8   -.033   -1.1
5.1   Michael Jordan  1.8   .026   2.0      -5.5   Bob McAdoo       -1.6   -.028   -2.5
4.9   Ron Harper       .7   .050   1.7      -5.4   Sam Cassell      -2.6   -.027   -1.5
4.7   Michael Cooper  1.5   .031   1.7      -5.1   Detlef Schrempf  -1.5   -.039   -1.7
4.7   Alvin Robertson 3.7   .012    .4      -5.0   Gary Payton      -2.5   -.029   -1.1
4.6  Chauncey Billups 1.4   .031   1.7      -4.8   David Robinson   -2.2   -.030   -1.1
4.5   Hersey Hawkins  1.4   .029   1.7      -4.7   Dale Ellis       -1.5   -.040   -1.2
4.4   Reggie Miller   2.2   .025   1.0      -4.5   Chris Mullin     -2.1   -.030    -.9
4.3   Tayshaun Prince  .6   .029   2.3      -4.4   Tim Hardaway     -1.9   -.043    -.4
4.3   James Worthy    1.7   .026   1.3      -4.3   Jack Sikma       -1.6   -.018   -1.8
4.2   Dwight Howard   2.2   .020   1.0      -4.2   Tony Parker      -1.0   -.041   -1.2
3.8   Cedric Maxwell   .8   .033   1.4      -4.1   Shane Battier    -2.4   -.020    -.7
3.7   Horace Grant     .7   .030   1.4      -3.5   Glen Rice        -1.0   -.030   -1.0
3.6   Elton Brand      .2   .043   1.2      -3.4   Peja Stojakovic  -1.3   -.023   -1.0
3.6   Tracy McGrady   2.4  -.006   1.5      -3.4   Kevin Johnson     -.5   -.040    -.8

Disclaimer: Some of those on the right are hurt by having played most of their playoff minutes outside of their prime years. Dantley, McAdoo, Mullin for sure. Others are known chronic underachievers.
Ron Harper somehow does not suffer from this effect.

Here's Baron Davis' RS and PO numbers:

Code: Select all

BD   PER   WS/48   BPM
RS   17.8   .106   2.7
PO   21.4   .176   6.7

Thats for 1850 minutes. In this top 20, only A Robertson had fewer PO min (490)

Posted: **Wed Aug 19, 2015 12:55 am**

Since these things really should be weighted by minutes, here are the top and bottom of the list, multiplying the same xyz as above by PO minutes (/10,000)

Code: Select all

xtra   Player         xyz    Min      xtra    Player           xyz    Min
4.1   Isiah Thomas    9.7   4216      -4.5   Karl Malone      -5.8   7907
4.0   Hakeem Olajuwon 7.0   5749      -3.0   Tony Parker      -4.2   7216
3.9   Robert Horry    5.7   6823      -2.7   Gary Payton      -5.0   5481
3.8   Michael Jordan  5.1   7474      -2.7  Clifford Robinson -7.0   3887
2.6   Rajon Rondo     7.2   3575      -2.0   David Robinson   -4.8   4221
2.4  Chauncey Billups 4.6   5321      -1.9   Sam Cassell      -5.4   3539
2.4   Baron Davis    13.2   1851      -1.9   Sidney Moncrief  -5.9   3226
2.4   Ben Wallace     5.4   4524      -1.7   Detlef Schrempf  -5.1   3338
2.3   Reggie Miller   4.4   5308      -1.6   Adrian Dantley   -7.2   2233
2.3   Scottie Pippen  2.8   8105      -1.5   Robert Parish    -2.5   6177
2.3   Horace Grant    3.7   6172      -1.5   Jack Sikma       -4.3   3558
2.3   James Worthy    4.3   5297      -1.5   Bob McAdoo       -5.5   2714
2.2   Michael Cooper  4.7   4744      -1.3   Kevin Johnson    -3.4   3879
2.2   Derek Fisher    3.3   6856      -1.3   Paul Pierce      -2.1   6074
2.1   Tayshaun Prince 4.3   4977      -1.2  Dominique Wilkins -5.8   2172
2.0   LeBron James    2.7   7561      -1.2   Dennis Rodman    -2.6   4789
1.8   Tim Duncan      2.0   9152      -1.2   Larry Bird       -1.8   6886
1.7   Shawn Kemp      5.9   2937      -1.2   Shane Battier    -4.1   3032
1.6   Dirk Nowitzki   2.8   5725      -1.2   Kevin Garnett    -2.2   5283
1.5   Ron Harper      4.9   3000      -1.1   Dwyane Wade      -1.9   5907

Many of the same names, and some new ones with a lot of PO Min.
Absolutely no units are applied to the ranking column.

We see a Big 4 here; who might fill out a starting lineup of Playoff Guys?

Posted: **Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:19 am**

In these 129 careers, 50 players have at least 4000 playoff minutes since 1974.
These 20 are pretty close to average in how their rates translate from RS to PO. Now showing unadjusted numbers, ranked from those a bit better than avg, to a bit below.

Code: Select all

4000+ PO Min.      Reg. Seasons              Playoffs
Player           PER   WS/48   BPM      PER   WS/48   BPM
Pau Gasol        21.6   .170   3.5      20.7   .161   4.6
Steve Nash       20.0   .164   1.3      19.8   .133   2.5
Jeff Hornacek    17.7   .154   3.0      16.5   .145   3.9
Jason Kidd       17.9   .133   4.2      17.1   .114   5.1
Dennis Johnson   14.6   .110    .6      14.4   .090    .9

Shaquille O'Neal 26.4   .208   5.0      26.1   .184   5.3
Dan Majerle      13.8   .125   2.7      13.1   .107   3.0
Kobe Bryant      23.2   .178   4.1      22.4   .157   4.4
Rasheed Wallace  17.0   .139   2.1      15.5   .126   2.7
Charles Barkley  24.6   .216   7.4      24.2   .193   7.3

Player           PER   WS/48   BPM      PER   WS/48   BPM
A.C. Green       14.4   .131    .4      13.5   .114    .4
Magic Johnson    24.1   .225   7.2      23.0   .208   7.4
Ray Allen        18.6   .150   3.0      16.3   .143   3.5
Patrick Ewing    21.0   .150   2.0      19.6   .130   2.1
Kareem A-Jabbar  23.7   .208   5.8      22.7   .188   5.4

Sam Perkins      15.5   .138   1.4      14.2   .105   1.6
Manu Ginobili    21.1   .202   5.5      19.8   .169   5.4
Julius Erving    22.0   .178   5.1      20.0   .149   5.1
Clyde Drexler    21.1   .173   6.0      19.7   .134   5.9
John Stockton    21.8   .209   3.5      19.8   .160   4.1

These are NBA-only numbers. Apologies to Erving, Gilmore, et al.
Again, the norm for good players is to lose 1.1 in PER and .021 from WS/48, from RS to PO.

Posted: **Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:53 pm**

Among active players (as determined by b-r.com, seemingly those who haven't announced retirement), there are 200 players with at least 380 career playoff minutes.
Avg RS-minus-PO rates:
PER: 1.1 (same as with 130 top careers since 1974)
WS/48: .016
BPM: -0.5 -- Players have been half a point better in playoffs (??)

A slightly different xyz here = PER(PO)-PER(RS)+1.1 + (WS48(PO)-WS48(RS)+.016)*50 + BPM(PO)-BPM(RS)-0.5
xtra = xyz * Min(PO)/10,000 -- again, no units attempted or assigned. Just a ranking formula.
Top 15 active players:

Code: Select all

xtra   reg. seasons:   PER   WS/48   BPM    PO Min   PER   WS/48  BPM     xyz
2.32  Rajon Rondo     16.7   .120   2.0      3575   18.4   .130   4.9     6.5
1.99  Boris Diaw      13.0   .086    .8      2782   15.0   .111   3.3     7.2
1.79  Tayshaun Prince 14.1   .100    .2      4977   13.6   .108   2.5     3.6
1.51  LeBron James    27.7   .240   9.2      7561   27.4   .234  10.4     2.0
1.22  Trevor Ariza    13.8   .098   1.6      2117   14.5   .123   4.0     5.8

1.20  Dirk Nowitzki   23.3   .205   3.6      5725   24.0   .193   4.2     2.1
1.19  Tim Duncan      24.5   .211   5.5      9152   24.6   .197   6.0     1.3
1.13  Jameer Nelson   15.3   .104    .6      1429   17.1   .142   3.4     7.9
1.11  Bradley Beal    14.0   .081   -.3       876   17.5   .146   4.2    12.7
1.10  Dwight Howard   22.0   .178   2.8      3177   23.1   .177   3.8     3.5

1.03  Draymond Green  13.3   .122   2.6      1235   16.0   .145   5.7     8.4
.98  Jason Richardson 16.3   .097   1.3      1262   18.1   .143   3.6     7.8
.97   Roy Hibbert     16.2   .111    .5      1708   17.6   .139   2.0     5.7
.92   Chris Andersen  16.8   .156   1.2      1171   19.0   .203   3.1     7.9
.87   Kirk Hinrich    13.0   .094    .3      1984   14.0   .104   1.8     4.4

xyz can be thought of as per-minute playoff improvement, being an average of PER, WS/48, and BPM improvements (relative to avg player).
Note, xyz are slightly different from previous lists, due to different average-adjustments.

Bottom 15

Code: Select all

xtra    reg.seasons    PER   WS/48   BPM    PO Min   PER   WS/48   BPM     xyz
-3.54  Tony Parker     18.9   .147   1.2      7216   16.9   .085    .0    -4.9
-1.70  Paul Pierce     20.1   .161   3.5      6074   17.5   .129   3.5    -2.8
-1.54  Dwyane Wade     25.0   .185   5.7      5907   22.7   .161   5.2    -2.6
-1.53  Kevin Garnett   22.8   .183   5.5      5283   21.1   .149   4.6    -2.9
-1.37  Hedo Turkoglu   14.3   .114   1.2      2985   11.6   .060    .6    -4.6

-1.34  Leandro Barbosa 15.6   .102   -.1      1942   11.5   .042  -1.3    -6.9
-1.28  Carlos Boozer   19.5   .143   1.2      2942   17.4   .092    .1    -4.4
-1.14  Devin Harris    16.8   .116    .6      1396   12.0   .045   -.6    -8.2
-.96   Kyle Korver     13.2   .119   1.1      2075   10.5   .072    .1    -4.7
-.93   Lou Williams    17.5   .121    .0      1007   12.6   .033  -1.3    -9.2

-.92   J.J. Redick     14.5   .130    .0      1820   11.3   .071   -.3    -5.1
-.91   Manu Ginobili   21.1   .202   5.5      5492   19.8   .169   5.4    -1.7
-.88 LaMarcus Aldridge 20.3   .145   1.2      1373   19.0   .069  -1.5    -6.4
-.85   Mike Miller     14.5   .106   1.0      1552   10.7   .069   -.2    -5.5
-.79   Matt Bonner     13.6   .138   1.0      1034    8.7   .087   -.6    -7.7
-.78   Al Horford      19.0   .157   2.8      2233   16.9   .109   2.4    -3.5

Ryan Anderson xyz = -13, but only for 500 minutes.

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:38 pm**

FYI, BPM in the playoffs is adjusted for the strength of the teams/lineups, so it's still on the regular season scale, rather than average being "average of playoffs".

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:48 pm**

Thanks, that's what I'd expect.
So how is it that 64% of players (w >380 career PO minutes) have better playoff BPM than RS BPM?
Do they play harder? Better lineup management?

Teams can't, in total, have better point differential in playoffs, even adjusting for RS SRS of opponents.
If primary and most secondary players are doing (0.5 pts/100) better than expected, are the bit players doing that much worse?
Doesn't it have to zero out?

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:06 pm**

Mike G wrote:Thanks, that's what I'd expect.
So how is it that 64% of players (w >380 career PO minutes) have better playoff BPM than RS BPM?
Do they play harder? Better lineup management?

Teams can't, in total, have better point differential in playoffs, even adjusting for RS SRS of opponents.
If primary and most secondary players are doing (0.5 pts/100) better than expected, are the bit players doing that much worse?
Doesn't it have to zero out?

Good question. Teams will have a better point differential in the playoffs, because the values are adjusted for the lineups that are playing for their opponents (which are tightened up for the post season).

But, overall, the players should average exactly the same as the same players did in the regular season (accounting for minutes).

APBRmetrics

Statistical Trivia

Re: Trivia

Re: Trivia

Re: Trivia

Re: Trivia

Re: Trivia

Re: Trivia

Re: Trivia

Re: Trivia

Re: Trivia

Re: Trivia

Re: Trivia

Re: Trivia

Re: Trivia

Re: Trivia

Re: Trivia