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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 6:39 am
by Crow
Thanks much for offering to track. Scaling makes sense to me. The Vegas line I saw added to 1240 instead of 1230. Maybe intentional? But weird.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 7:05 am
by sndesai1
i think the initial lines added up to ~1240, but by now, they're probably somewhere around 1270. they're clearly taking advantage of people's biases. it won't result in a smaller avg error, but that's not really a book's goal
however, fivethirtyeight's projections adding up to way over 1230 was a little surprising to me. i guess they basically did all of their projections independently, and they ignored schedule too...i'm not sure why they decided to do that with their new CARMELO projections - i don't think they did that last year
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 12:24 pm
by Mike G
Here's what we have so far:
Code: Select all
tm avg MG bbs fpli DrP DF Crow AJ KF km DSM taco Cal itca snd
Atl 48.6 50 43 47 54 48 46 50 45 43 50 51 51 50 52
Bos 46.1 38 52 48 41 46 46 49 49 50 47 43 46 45 45
Brk 24.6 29 21 29 20 26 24 25 24 20 24 27 26 28 21
Cha 35.2 35 38 35 35 39 39 38 37 38 37 27 36 25 34
Chi 46.8 42 46 49 47 45 46 48 44 44 47 52 45 52 48
Cle 56.8 51 57 58 57 58 58 58 58 57 56 53 56 57 61
Dal 38.4 38 39 39 39 40 37 40 40 37 41 32 38 37 41
Den 28.0 28 27 29 30 27 29 28 26 25 28 36 27 26 26
Det 38.1 42 39 39 39 37 35 38 38 39 37 34 40 39 37
GSW 60.9 53 64 61 66 62 61 66 59 61 61 59 62 59 59
Hou 53.5 54 55 54 48 54 56 52 54 53 54 54 51 55 55
Ind 40.3 43 38 46 38 40 42 42 40 43 37 30 41 44 40
LAC 53.9 57 53 54 52 54 54 53 54 53 53 54 56 53 54
LAL 24.4 34 21 25 20 24 23 23 24 26 22 28 25 25 22
Mem 48.6 47 48 51 50 51 49 50 45 49 47 51 50 47 45
tm avg MG bbs fpli DrP DF Crow AJ KF km DSM taco Cal itca snd
Mia 41.7 52 35 44 34 40 41 41 39 40 40 47 48 44 39
Mil 38.9 41 38 39 30 36 41 36 40 39 37 45 38 43 41
Min 27.5 28 28 22 25 28 28 29 28 28 30 27 24 29 31
NOP 44.7 42 43 49 48 47 46 45 45 41 47 41 42 44 46
NYK 27.1 26 28 28 14 27 28 25 28 31 24 36 29 32 23
Okl 55.0 57 54 53 58 54 53 54 55 57 56 56 56 54 53
Orl 30.9 33 33 28 26 31 28 27 35 35 34 28 29 31 34
Phl 23.4 18 23 18 33 22 22 24 25 20 24 28 20 25 25
Phx 37.6 36 38 38 42 38 39 34 38 37 36 37 37 37 40
Por 35.5 36 42 32 43 35 34 33 38 39 37 27 34 30 37
Sac 36.0 43 35 31 36 37 38 35 36 40 31 34 38 34 36
SAS 56.1 57 56 57 56 58 54 59 55 56 56 54 57 56 54
Tor 46.5 45 48 45 54 45 46 48 48 45 49 46 45 42 45
Uta 41.4 39 42 36 52 41 40 37 41 39 41 46 40 44 42
Was 44.0 36 47 46 43 40 47 43 42 45 47 47 43 46 44
tot 1230 1230 1231 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1233 1230
Note that the team abbreviations are alphabetical in the same order as their fully-spelled-out city/names.
If you abbreviate Brk as
Bkn, it switches order with Bos. If you call Cha
Cho, it jumps ahead of Chi.
Therefore, I advocate abbreviating in a way that does not change the alphabetical order.
Least variation from the avg belongs to Dan Frank (DF/ampersand) who is within
2 of the group avg for every team except Was -- calling for just 40 wins vs the avg of 43. And that "extreme" is only half as radical as my own prediction (37).
I'm a radical in general. Suspecting Mia will attain 52 wins (avg = 41) and the LAL 34 (vs 24).
Even more out-there is Dr Pos, with 3 double-digit outliers: NYK 14 (26 avg), Utah 52 (41), Phl 33 (23)
No other prediction differs by more than 6 from any average.
UPDATED -- A couple of people have wins total more than 1230. Feel free to amend this.
If you don't like the abbreviation for you, I can change it.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:03 pm
by DSMok1
Here is my entry, which is NOT algorithm based. This is based on several of the best statistics-based methods with minor tweaks by hand. This was also my entry for ESPN's Fall Forecast:
Code: Select all
tm DSM
Atl 50
Bos 47
Brk 24
Cha 37
Chi 47
Cle 56
Dal 41
Den 28
Det 37
GSW 61
Hou 54
Ind 37
LAC 53
LAL 22
Mem 47
Mia 40
Mil 37
Min 30
NOP 47
NYK 24
Okl 56
Orl 34
Phl 24
Phx 36
Por 37
Sac 31
SAS 56
Tor 49
Uta 41
Was 47
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:47 pm
by tacoman206
Code: Select all
Team WinProjFinal
------
ATL 51
BOS 43
BKN 27
CHA 27
CHI 52
CLE 53
DAL 32
DEN 36
DET 34
GSW 59
HOU 54
IND 30
LAC 54
LAL 28
MEM 51
MIA 47
MIL 45
MIN 27
NOP 41
NYK 36
OKC 56
ORL 28
PHI 28
PHX 37
POR 27
SAC 34
SAS 54
TOR 46
UTA 46
WAS 47
I did a pretty simple algorithm for these, not really trusting my player projections too much.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 5:35 pm
by Dr Positivity
Mike G wrote:
Even more out-there is Dr Pos, with 3 double-digit outliers: NYK 14 (26 avg), Utah 52 (41), Phl 33 (23)
No other prediction differs by more than 6 from any average.
Yeah the NYK one I would be surprised if it actually happens, since it seems like how could go backwards with the legitimate NBA player acquisitions they made? But I will stick with the numbers and see how it goes. Basically what happened with NYK is their 5 best players per minute last year rated as Prigioni, Acy, Shumpert, Melo and Shved in that order. So despite adding some solid acquisitions like Lopez, Afflalo and O'Quinn, the 3,000+ minutes lost of competent play from Prigs/Shumpert/Acy/Shved is a surprising hurt. I projected Melo to slightly decline because of age, so if his dip last year was health related and he bounces back to his 13-14 form instead, that could be one way NYK proves me wrong
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 7:29 pm
by caliban
First time trying this out. Peltons minutes with minor tweaks and a bunch of numbers
Code: Select all
tm Cal
Atl 51
Bos 46
Brk 26
Cha 36
Chi 45
Cle 56
Dal 38
Den 27
Det 40
GSW 62
Hou 51
Ind 41
LAC 56
LAL 25
Mem 50
Mia 48
Mil 38
Min 24
NOP 42
NYK 29
Okl 56
Orl 29
Phl 20
Phx 37
Por 34
Sac 38
SAS 57
Tor 45
Uta 40
Was 43
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 7:44 pm
by italia13calcio
Team WinProjFinal
------
ATL 50
BOS 45
BKN 28
CHA 25
CHI 52
CLE 57
DAL 37
DEN 26
DET 39
GSW 59
HOU 55
IND 44
LAC 53
LAL 25
MEM 47
MIA 44
MIL 43
MIN 29
NOP 44
NYK 32
OKC 54
ORL 31
PHI 25
PHX 37
POR 30
SAC 34
SAS 56
TOR 42
UTA 44
WAS 46
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 8:12 pm
by sndesai1
ATL 52
BOS 45
BRK 21
CHA 34
CHI 48
CLE 61
DAL 41
DEN 26
DET 37
GSW 59
HOU 55
IND 40
LAC 54
LAL 22
MEM 45
MIA 39
MIL 41
MIN 31
NOP 46
NYK 23
OKC 53
ORL 34
PHI 25
PHO 40
POR 37
SAC 36
SAS 54
TOR 45
UTA 42
WAS 44
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:54 pm
by Statman
Sorry, bunch of stuff came up - & since I don't get paid for this, I'm still working on the projections. All the theory stuff is done - too much minutiae to finish tonight. I should have fully fleshed out stuff tomorrow - I'll post here & at my site a day late & a dollar short.
The cool thing about using Pelton's minutes projections is that I'll be able to rank every player by projected 2016 WAR & WAR/48. The not cool thing is how some players are named slightly different between my league files & Pelton's list (Pelton, NBA, D League, Preseason, NCAA). Cross checking is a pain & has taken more time than expected.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 10:32 pm
by tacoman206
Statman wrote:Sorry, bunch of stuff came up - & since I don't get paid for this, I'm still working on the projections. All the theory stuff is done - too much minutiae to finish tonight. I should have fully fleshed out stuff tomorrow - I'll post here & at my site a day late & a dollar short.
The cool thing about using Pelton's minutes projections is that I'll be able to rank every player by projected 2016 WAR & WAR/48. The not cool thing is how some players are named slightly different between my league files & Pelton's list (Pelton, NBA, D League, Preseason, NCAA). Cross checking is a pain & has taken more time than expected.
If you could post your individual WS predictions, it would be cool to compare our systems does better after the season (and anyone else who has individual projections)
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 10:33 pm
by nrestifo
Here's mine. Explained briefly here :
http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/10/27/201 ... ojections/
Team Wins
GSW 60
LAC 59
SAS 59
HOU 57
CLE 56
MEM 52
TOR 52
OKC 50
CHI 49
ATL 48
BOS 46
NOP 46
UTA 43
WAS 42
SAC 41
DAL 39
PHO 39
MIA 38
POR 38
IND 36
MIL 34
DEN 31
NYK 31
DET 30
ORL 29
BRK 28
CHO 26
LAL 26
PHI 25
MIN 20
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 10:39 pm
by rsmth
Code: Select all
RK Team ORTG DRTG Wins Win%
W2 GSW 110.9 100.0 65 79.3%
W2 SAS 109.6 100.5 61 74.4%
E1 CLE 113.4 105.6 60 73.2%
W3 LAC 112.1 104.9 57 69.5%
W4 OKC 112.3 105.6 56 68.3%
W5 HOU 110.7 104.6 54 65.9%
W6 MEM 107.4 102.7 52 63.4%
E2 CHI 106.8 103.5 50 61.0%
E3 ATL 106.2 102.9 50 61.0%
E4 BOS 107.4 104.4 50 61.0%
E5 TOR 108.4 106.2 48 58.5%
W7 NOP 108.7 106.8 45 54.9%
E6 WAS 104.5 103.4 45 54.9%
E7 IND 105.1 105.0 42 51.2%
E8 MIA 107.2 108.1 40 48.8%
W8 DAL 107.8 107.9 39 47.6%
E9 MIL 103.8 104.7 39 47.6%
W9 UTA 10.9 106.3 39 47.6%
W10 PHO 102.8 103.7 38 46.3%
W11 SAC 104.9 106.0 37 45.1%
E10 DET 107.0 109.5 35 42.7%
W12 POR 104.1 106.5 34 41.5%
E11 CHA 103.4 107.3 32 39.0%
E12 ORL 103.3 107.8 31 37.8%
W13 DEN 101.4 107.5 26 31.7%
E13 NYK 103.2 110.7 24 29.3%
W14 MIN 102.1 109.7 23 28.0%
E14 BRK 101.9 110.8 21 25.6%
W15 LAL 103.8 112.5 20 24.4%
E15 PHI 99.2 110.0 17 20.7%
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 11:09 pm
by Mike G
One hour to tipoff
Code: Select all
tm avg MG bbs fpli DrP DF Crow AJ KF km DSM taco Cal itca snd nr rsm
Atl 48.6 50 43 47 54 48 46 50 45 43 50 51 51 50 52 48 50
Bos 46.3 38 52 48 41 46 46 49 49 50 47 43 46 45 45 46 50
Brk 24.6 29 21 29 20 26 24 25 24 20 24 27 26 28 21 28 21
Cha 34.4 35 38 35 35 39 39 38 37 38 37 27 36 25 34 26 32
Chi 47.1 42 46 49 47 45 46 48 44 44 47 52 45 52 48 49 50
Cle 56.9 51 57 58 57 58 58 58 58 57 56 53 56 57 61 56 60
Dal 38.5 38 39 39 39 40 37 40 40 37 41 32 38 37 41 39 39
Den 28.1 28 27 29 30 27 29 28 26 25 28 36 27 26 26 31 26
Det 37.4 42 39 39 39 37 35 38 38 39 37 34 40 39 37 30 35
GSW 61.1 53 64 61 66 62 61 66 59 61 61 59 62 59 59 60 65
Hou 53.8 54 55 54 48 54 56 52 54 53 54 54 51 55 55 57 54
Ind 40.1 43 38 46 38 40 42 42 40 43 37 30 41 44 40 36 42
LAC 54.4 57 53 54 52 54 54 53 54 53 53 54 56 53 54 59 57
LAL 24.3 34 21 25 20 24 23 23 24 26 22 28 25 25 22 26 20
Mem 49.0 47 48 51 50 51 49 50 45 49 47 51 50 47 45 52 52
Mia 41.4 52 35 44 34 40 41 41 39 40 40 47 48 44 39 38 40
Mil 38.6 41 38 39 30 36 41 36 40 39 37 45 38 43 41 34 39
Min 26.8 28 28 22 25 28 28 29 28 28 30 27 24 29 31 20 23
NOP 44.8 42 43 49 48 47 46 45 45 41 47 41 42 44 46 46 45
NYK 27.1 26 28 28 14 27 28 25 28 31 24 36 29 32 23 31 24
Okl 54.8 57 54 53 58 54 53 54 55 57 56 56 56 54 53 50 56
Orl 30.8 33 33 28 26 31 28 27 35 35 34 28 29 31 34 29 31
Phl 23.1 18 23 18 33 22 22 24 25 20 24 28 20 25 25 25 17
Phx 37.8 36 38 38 42 38 39 34 38 37 36 37 37 37 40 39 38
Por 35.6 36 42 32 43 35 34 33 38 39 37 27 34 30 37 38 34
Sac 36.4 43 35 31 36 37 38 35 36 40 31 34 38 34 36 41 37
SAS 56.6 57 56 57 56 58 54 59 55 56 56 54 57 56 54 59 61
Tor 46.9 45 48 45 54 45 46 48 48 45 49 46 45 42 45 52 48
Uta 41.4 39 42 36 52 41 40 37 41 39 41 46 40 44 42 43 39
Was 43.9 36 47 46 43 40 47 43 42 45 47 47 43 46 44 42 45
tot 1230 1230 1231 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1233 1230 1230 1230
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 11:13 pm
by sndesai1
n/m