2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion

[AcrossTheCourt]

I don't think the rounding thing matters. I was told it wasn't an issue when I first submitted years ago. I also think the race for first can be so tight that we need those extra decimal points for separation.

And if you have a model where the output is whole numbers, it's easy to convert that system to decimals anyway.

[jgoldstein34]

First time entering!

GSW 66.9 67
SAS 57.2 57
CLE 55.2 55
LAC 51.6 52
BOS 51.3 51
TOR 47.4 47
UTA 45.9 46
OKC 44.4 44
POR 43.9 44
CHA 43.6 44
HOU 43.6 44
ATL 43.0 43
MIN 42.5 42
IND 41.4 41
WAS 40.0 40
NOP 39.6 40
DET 39.5 40
CHI 38.9 39
DAL 37.9 38
ORL 37.8 38
MEM 37.0 37
MIA 36.5 37
SAC 35.9 36
DEN 34.9 35
MIL 33.1 33
NYK 32.4 32
PHO 28.2 28
LAL 28.1 28
BRK 26.3 26
PHI 26.0 26

Best of luck to everyone!

EDIT: Added decimal projections too

[Crow]

Hey. Good luck to you as well.

[sndesai1]

ATL 42
BOS 50
BRK 26
CHA 40
CHI 38
CLE 54
DAL 38
DEN 35
DET 42
GSW 67
HOU 48
IND 40
LAC 52
LAL 24
MEM 38
MIA 37
MIL 34
MIN 44
NOP 38
NYK 38
OKC 44
ORL 35
PHI 28
PHX 27
POR 45
SAC 35
SAS 54
TOR 51
UTA 45
WAS 41

[AcrossTheCourt]

atl 39.6 40.0
bkn 25.5 25.0
bos 53.5 53.0
cha 43.3 43.0
chi 38.6 39.0
cle 57.9 58.0
dal 38.1 39.0
den 34.9 35.0
det 41.3 41.0
gsw 71.0 71.0
hou 47.5 47.0
ind 37.3 37.0
lac 50.3 50.0
lal 22.9 23.0
mem 40.1 40.0
mia 34.7 35.0
mil 29.7 30.0
min 38.8 39.0
nop 36.0 36.0
nyk 33.5 34.0
okc 44.1 44.0
orl 37.0 37.0
phi 25.2 25.0
phx 26.5 26.0
por 44.5 45.0
sac 37.1 37.0
sas 57.4 57.0
tor 52.1 52.0
uta 50.0 50.0
was 41.7 42.0

[nbacouchside]

I did two systems one with projected BPM mixed with RAPM and one with projected DRE (based on B-Ref's Marcel the Monkey projections) and RAPM. I'll post both.

BPM-RAPM version:

Code: Select all

TEAM	Wins
GSW	70
CLE	60
SAS	58
UTA	53
TOR	52
BOS	51
LAC	50
HOU	47
POR	46
OKC	44
DET	43
CHO	41
ATL	40
WAS	40
NYK	39
CHI	38
IND	38
ORL	38
SAC	38
MEM	37
DAL	36
DEN	36
MIA	36
MIN	35
NOP	35
MIL	33
BRK	27
PHO	27
LAL	21
PHI	21

DRE-RAPM

Code: Select all

TEAM	Wins
GSW	71
SAS	59
CLE	56
LAC	53
TOR	51
BOS	51
HOU	48
UTA	48
POR	43
ATL	43
OKC	42
IND	41
DET	40
WAS	40
CHO	39
MIN	39
SAC	38
ORL	38
NOP	38
MEM	37
DAL	37
CHI	37
MIA	37
DEN	36
NYK	35
MIL	34
BRK	28
PHO	25
PHI	24
LAL	22

[Crow]

If you developed projections to first decimal and want to post 2 versions like acrossthecourt that sounds like an acceptable compromise. Track the rounded version first but have the decimal version to separate the best at the end, if necessary. If you feel you want to post at the decimal level later because you are in the top pack and want to compete with a decimal level model, I'd say it would be ok to retroactively post that decimal level listing as it was before start of season on the honor system by say the 20-30th game.

The contest has allowed decimal level before; my encouragement of rounded for simplicity and fairness was just an opinion.

The scoring method has been debated before and several methods have been used. I am alright with diversity. It is a pretty casual competition to me.

If you didn't post here but published elsewhere, participated here before and thought / wanted to be thought included just say so. If you can't be bothered to post the prediction here or drop by... well then people can include or exclude you in their mind as they wish.

[RyanRiot]

Here's my projections. First year doing this.

GSW 69.1 69
SAS 57 57
CLE 56.9 57
TOR 51 51
LAC 50.2 50
BOS 50.2 50
UTA 48.9 49
OKC 46 46
HOU 45.8 46
POR 44.7 45
CHA 42.9 43
DET 42.5 43
WAS 41.3 41
ATL 40.6 41
IND 40 40
MEM 39.4 39
CHI 38.9 39
DAL 38 38
NYK 36.8 37
MIN 36.7 37
ORL 36.4 36
NOP 36.3 36
DEN 36.3 36
SAC 36.1 36
MIA 35 35
MIL 33.8 34
PHX 27.7 28
BKN 25.5 25
PHI 24.6 25
LAL 23.1 23

[Yooper]

Here's my yearly post. lol at me.

Cleveland 56
Boston 53
Toronto 51
Miami 46
Atlanta 44
Washington 41
Indiana 40
Detroit 40
Charlotte 39
New York 34
Chicago 33
Milwaukee 31
Orlando 30
Brooklyn 28
Philadelphia 25

Golden State 69
San Antonio 58
Houston 50
Utah 49
L.A. Clippers 48
Oklahoma City 44
Minnesota 43
Denver 41
Portland 40
Sacramento 40
Memphis 38
Dallas 35
Phoenix 29
New Orleans 28
L.A. Lakers 27

Sorry about the formatting but I think it's legible.

Crow, I'd be curious as to your methodology. Doesn't look as statistically derived as others? Your words also seem to indicate this with wanting to give about 100 less wins than 1230. That's I how I kind of felt as well.

[Crow]

Same basic approach as before- this time took 8 projections (most entered here), then gave them variable weights based on my regard / guess about them and produced a baseline projection. From there I went thru a few rounds of tweaking them up and down a couple games (or more in a few cases) based on subjective opinion. If I was more disciplined I'd have given each team a solid block of time and consistent, comprehensive review on a set list of issues. But I just bopped through it until it seemed good enough for the cause.

[caliban]

Decimal points for extra separation makes sense. Use my rounded numbers if necessary. Good luck everyone and may the injury gods be with you.

atl 44,9 45
bkn 25,7 26
bos 52,7 53
cho 42,0 42
chi 37,8 38
cle 56,1 56
dal 36,7 37
den 36,3 36
det 43,1 43
gsw 72,2 72
hou 46,6 47
ind 43,4 43
lac 51,6 52
lal 21,8 22
mem 37,0 37
mia 41,3 41
mil 31,6 31
min 38,7 39
nop 31,8 32
nyk 36,2 36
okc 44,9 45
orl 34,3 34
phi 20,9 21
phx 26,0 26
por 42,8 43
sac 33,0 33
sas 59,2 59
tor 50,5 50
uta 47,8 48
was 43,1 43

[kmedved]

Lets do it.

Atlanta Hawks 44.1 44
Boston Celtics 51.3 51
Brooklyn Nets 24.1 24
Charlotte Hornets 41.6 42
Chicago Bulls 41.6 42
Cleveland Cavaliers 55.9 56
Dallas Mavericks 35.7 36
Denver Nuggets 35.7 36
Detroit Pistons 40.2 40
Golden State Warriors 70.6 71
Houston Rockets 49.6 50
Indiana Pacers 40.8 41
Los Angeles Clippers 50.9 51
Los Angeles Lakers 22.3 22
Memphis Grizzlies 37.7 38
Miami Heat 40.4 40
Milwaukee Bucks 30.7 31
Minnesota Timberwolves 44.1 44
New Orleans Pelicans 33.1 33
New York Knicks 35.0 35
Oklahoma City Thunder 47.3 47
Orlando Magic 33.8 34
Philadelphia 76ers 24.2 24
Phoenix Suns 27.5 27
Portland Trail Blazers 45.1 45
Sacramento Kings 33.6 34
San Antonio Spurs 56.8 57
Toronto Raptors 51.6 52
Utah Jazz 46.5 46
Washington Wizards 38.5 38

[tacoman206]

Let's see if I can improve on my basement finish from last year!

ATL 43
BRK 28
BOS 50
CHA 42
CHI 39
CLE 61
DAL 37
DEN 35
DET 42
GSW 65
HOU 45
IND 37
LAC 50
LAL 22
MEM 39
MIA 34
MIL 33
MIN 38
NOP 37
NYK 36
OKC 43
ORL 38
PHI 26
PHX 33
POR 44
SAC 37
SAS 53
TOR 50
UTA 50
WAS 43

[GK5]

Posted my projections on page 2, but wanted to add my decimals in too.

Code: Select all

GSW	72.93	73
SAS	53.40	53
CLE	52.45	52
TOR	52.31	52
UTA	51.25	51
LAC	48.51	49
BOS	48.07	48
OKC	47.68	48
HOU	45.30	45
POR	45.40	45
CHO	42.89	43
CHI	41.498  41
DET	39.81	40
MIN	39.69	40
DEN	38.77	39
IND	39.10	39
WAS	38.51	39
ATL	38.22	38
DAL	38.34	38
SAC	37.54	38
MEM	37.29	37
ORL	37.13	37
MIA	35.53	36
NOP	35.22	35
NYK	30.96	31
PHO	30.67	31
MIL	29.80	30
PHI	28.84	29
BRK	28.34	28
LAL	24.55	25

[AcrossTheCourt]

What are people using for predictions this year? Looks like a lot of RPM.

Mine is a multi-year ensemble of Dredge, RPM, RAPM, and BPM. Coaching, usage, age, sophomore, and crunch-time vs. bench lineup adjustments.