JoshEngleman wrote:While this is a good point, I assume that's solely because of playing in NY. I wouldn't expect the Derrick Rose T-wolves jersey to be flying off of the shelves.
Oh no not at all, but he's certainly a marketable player. "Former MVP" always has a nice ring to it. I also wouldn't be so sure it was just because of NY, this is actually the lowest he's ranked in jersey sales in his entire career. Even in his rookie season he was 11th in the league.
His rank each year as far as I can find:
2008-09 -- 11th
2009-10 -- 4th
2010-11 -- 5th
2011-12 -- 1st
2012-13 -- 5th
2013-14 -- 4th
2014-15 -- 5th
2015-16 -- 6th
2016-17 -- 12th
Even his injured years when he didn't play his jersey sold insanely well. They're a small market team, getting a guy who can sell tickets/jerseys and help them get another national TV game or two really makes a difference.
I guess the only option here is that Bjelica loses a big chunk of minutes. It's not as if Dieng/Gibson can drop down to the 3. Why in the world did they take Justin Patton? Obviously medicals play a huge factor, but this could have been a great fit for OG Anuonoby or maybe Terrance Ferguson. Is there anywhere to trade Gorgui Dieng? They are a solid team, but the pieces are a little weird.
Minnesota has a surplus usage issue using those minutes projections. Based on last year's usage rates, the minutes weighted usage rate for the team is 110%. Obviously this number can't be greater than 100%. So I'd expect diminishing returns to kick in and probably would knock them down to around 45 wins.
My model has them more around 53-55 wins but that's mostly because the metric I use just thinks their top end guys are better than yours does. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Talent is based mostly off WS/48, yes?
jgoldstein34 wrote:My model has them more around 53-55 wins but that's mostly because the metric I use just thinks their top end guys are better than yours does. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Talent is based mostly off WS/48, yes?
shadow wrote:Minnesota has a surplus usage issue using those minutes projections. Based on last year's usage rates, the minutes weighted usage rate for the team is 110%. Obviously this number can't be greater than 100%. So I'd expect diminishing returns to kick in and probably would knock them down to around 45 wins.
This is just a first pass. My goal is to treat each guy individually and see where it lands when I'm done. This lets me think about how a minutes reduction for the team will be handled. Once free agency is largely settled, it will all be cleaned up.
If this is the TWolves team, I think the good scenario is a battle for 6th seed. I don't see higher unless someone above has major injury. They might end up battling for 8th seed if their defense doesn't pick up.
