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Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:04 pm
by shadow
Here's the RMSE at the team level across all sims. The overall average for all teams was 4.95.
Code: Select all
ATL 5.99
BOS 6.87
BRK 6.20
CHA 6.99
CHI 4.45
CLE 4.66
DAL 4.34
DEN 4.83
DET 4.45
GSW 3.35
HOU 4.05
IND 4.51
LAC 4.19
LAL 4.20
MEM 4.33
MIA 5.18
MIL 4.56
MIN 8.47
NOP 4.63
NYK 4.28
OKC 5.88
ORL 5.58
PHI 4.20
PHX 5.21
POR 4.42
SAC 4.21
SAS 4.73
TOR 4.23
UTA 4.12
WAS 5.42
Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:46 am
by Nathan
Celtics championship odds rose and Cavs championship odds fell in the wake of the trade.
On a scale of 1 to total solar eclipse, how in the dark are people about Crowder?
Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:30 pm
by Rd11490
The commom man perspective on Jae Crowder is that he constantly takes terrible contested threes that he can't make, he actively hurts the celtics, and he hates the celtics fan base. The common fan is stupid.
Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:34 pm
by Mike G
Crowder is average to slightly above?
He's a weaker rebounder than Channing Frye, no better as a scorer but a bit better passer.
I guess he's more credibly a backup to LeBron, and lots better than R Jefferson.
Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:53 pm
by caliban
BOS down 6 in my model. The Brown Tatum duo better show up.
Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:33 pm
by Crow
Crowder is outstanding on RPM estimate and not just a one year fluke. But RPM is probably better at assessing impact on team than impact rank in league or in abstract or on another team, though it tries.
As part of my campaign to maximize the number of views adjusted plus minus technique can give, I call for a RAPM split into 3 pieces for player time spent in lineups where the other 4 are plus 2 & above cumulatively on RPM, 2 to -2 and below -2. RPM knows that context matters, so let's see player impacts in those 3 contexts.
Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:00 am
by shadow
Westgate has released over/unders. Congrats to whoever manages to get the first max bet down on Boston under 56.5.
http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/20 ... -under-675
Code: Select all
GSW 67.5
BOS 56.5
HOU 55.5
SAS 54.5
CLE 53.5
OKC 51.5
TOR 48.5
MIN 48.5
MIL 47.5
WAS 47.5
DEN 45.5
MIA 43.5
LAC 43.5
PHI 42.5
CHA 42.5
POR 42.5
UTA 40.5
NOP 39.5
DET 38.5
MEM 37.5
DAL 35.5
ORL 33.5
LAL 33.5
IND 31.5
NYK 30.5
BRK 28.5
SAC 28.5
PHX 28.5
ATL 25.5
CHI 21.5
Kevin Pelton looked at which teams differed the most from his RPM projections posted earlier this year:
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2049 ... vin-pelton
Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 4:48 am
by bondom343
That Boston line is so strange, I don't think I've seen a single person who thinks it's over. I get the east is weak but that's too high. Same for Philly.
Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 5:21 am
by Crow
I dunno their logic, but a few whack lines gets people talking and could quickly be adjusted.
Re: Way-too-early 2017-18 Forecasts
Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:09 pm
by shadow
I'm pretty sure the max bets at Westgate on these are only $1K and it wouldn't take more than a few max bets on the under to move the line down a couple wins. So there's not a massive amount of liability in posting a slightly off-market opener in this case.