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Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Mon May 27, 2019 3:32 pm
by Mike G
The Bucks led the league in DRtg, 5.2 pts/100 better than avg.
Raptors were 5th best, 3.3 better than avg.
Supposing the playoff rotations are shorter, games closer, and defense more intense, we might expect their opponents to be roughly 6 to 8 (Mil) and 4 to 6 (Tor) below their season ORtg?
Code: Select all
Bucks/opp.
ORtg RS vsMil diff
Det 109.0 98.0 -11.0
Bos 112.2 104.4 -7.8
Tor 113.1 107.7 -5.4
Raptors/opp.
ORtg RS vsTor diff
Orl 108.9 96.3 -12.6
Phl 112.6 98.9 -13.7
Mil 113.8 106.7 -7.1
Mil on avg held opponents 8 pts below their season ORtg; Tor is at -11 pts/100 on D.
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Mon May 27, 2019 5:44 pm
by Crow
Raptors probably need their best offensive series of the playoffs to have a chance to win. And probably help force the Warriors into their worst.
Warriors have improved defensive rating by about 5 points / 100 possessions each series in this playoffs. How much is them vs the opponent is not simple to say.
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Fri May 31, 2019 7:34 pm
by shadow
Playoff RAPM updated through first game of Finals.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true
4 of the top 6 in ORAPM are Warriors (Curry, Looney, Iguodala, Green)
Klay Thompson currently rated as worst defender in the entire playoffs. Iguodala not far behind at 190th out of 212.
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Fri May 31, 2019 11:59 pm
by Crow
How much will Looney get paid? I dunno. But I'd try pretty darn hard to be the top bid.
Harden, 23rd highest.
Drummond, lowest RAPM estimate. D Russell 2nd lowest. If Pistons don't try to trade Drummond, it is a mistake, If Nets re-sign Russell, it is a mistake.
And so on.
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:24 pm
by Mike G
shadow wrote: ↑Fri May 31, 2019 7:34 pm
Playoff RAPM updated through first game of Finals.
...
Klay Thompson currently rated as worst defender in the entire playoffs...
Kinda hard to believe this, but maybe he's also close to worst on offense too?
Using these pages, I find just 4 GSW lineups --
with Klay - and -
the other 4 teammates without him -- for more than 3 minutes:
http://bkref.com/tiny/a7Qny
Code: Select all
w/wo Klay Thompson wMP woMP w+/- wo+/- 0n-off
curry,durant,green,iguodala 164 31 2.1 77.1 -75.1
curry,green,iguodala,looney 81 57 8.3 49.5 -41.2
curry,durant,green,looney 36 47 36.5 44.9 -8.4t
curry,green,looney,mckinnie 21 66 -18.5 24.7 -43.2
These are per 48 minute net points; no off/def splits. Close to a point per minute MOV, in 200 minutes, with someone other than Klay?
Perhaps there is relief in 4-vs-3 man combinations? More data, less specific to KT. At least 30 min both w. and w.o.
Code: Select all
w/wo Klay Thompson wMP woMP w+/- wo+/- on-off
curry,green,iguodala 293 60 4.3 46.8 -42.5
curry,green,looney 147 107 11.1 40.7 -29.6
curry,durant,green 290 47 3.6 44.6 -40.9
durant,green,iguodala 190 37 7.3 73.6 -66.3
green,iguodala,looney 101 63 5.7 51.3 -45.6
curry,iguodala,looney 91 62 9.5 39.3 -29.7
curry,durant,iguodala 167 31 3.2 73.6 -70.4
durant,green,looney 57 55 21.2 40.3 -19.1
curry,green,mckinnie 44 68 0.0 23.9 -23.9
curry,durant,looney 41 48 42.9 43.3 -0.4
curry,green,livingston 41 36 -8.1 49.2 -57.3
...
This is just brutal. They have not a single player less effective than Thompson?
Why does he lead the team in minutes? How can "other" lineups be so limited in their useful minutes?
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:49 pm
by shadow
Here's playoff only RAPM for 2015-2019:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true
DeRozan manages to overtake Terrance Ross for last place in this latest 5 year playoff only version. DeRozan was second to last in the 2014-2018 version.
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:23 pm
by Crow
Do u have a complete 2018-19 regular season RAPM available?
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:36 pm
by shadow
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:46 pm
by Crow
Thanks.
That is another option Mike G.
If anyone wanted to put all the available RAPMs together with RPM on one page that would be handy, useful.
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:52 pm
by Mike G
Warriors opponents in these playoffs have been 53% guards!
Here's the by-position breakdown of how they've done vs GS, relative to all their regular season (per 36 min) rates.
Code: Select all
pos %min TS% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk 3s e484 eWins
PG .27 -.003 -1.6 .8 -2.4 -.27 -.07 -.07 -.10 -.45 -1.14
SG .36 -.011 -1.7 -.1 -.9 .09 .24 -.04 -.25 -.30 -1.04
SF .10 -.081 -2.5 -.1 -.4 .10 .50 -.04 -.35 -.40 -.38
PF .12 .038 1.5 .3 .5 -.17 .25 -.09 -.06 .08 .09
C .16 .002 .0 .4 -.6 -.06 .27 -.45 .18 -.28 -.42
Scoring rates are relative to 100 points per team, Reb/36 is scaled to 44/G/tm.
All positions have made fewer 3's -- including C, if you exclude Meyers Leonard.
I put Harden in the SG category, since he and Paul both played ~40 mpg.
Each opponent has had just one PF listed; Hou had no SF who played.
If Klay Thompson mostly defends SG and SF, he may have a big role in those positions' seriously underperforming.
PG are also way down, and he covered Lillard quite a bit? And Paul?
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Fri Jun 07, 2019 8:46 pm
by eminence
Not really sure where to ask, but does anybody have a playoff only rapm for the entirety of the pbp era? Eg '97 through this season?
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:01 pm
by shadow
Here's RAPM for playoffs only for 1998 (as in 1997-98 season) through this season:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true
I didn't include 1997 because the pbp from NBA.com doesn't include player IDs for that season (or at least it didn't when I pulled the data to generate the matchup files). So at the moment it would result in duplicate players in the output for anyone whose last season wasn't 1997, which is obviously quite a few players.
If I find the motivation to fix the ID issue with 1997 I'll re-run it and update the above link to include that season as well.
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:04 am
by Crow
Any estimate on the size of the average errors?
DeRozan with the 4th lowest estimate.
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Sat Jun 08, 2019 3:51 am
by Crow
DeRozan on the court in playoffs, negative every year. Quite bad 5 years running, On/off always negative. Went from mildly bad to terrible to super horrendous. RAPM does not look like a fluke.
Spurs couldn't get better or misread? Bad look either way.
Aldridge's playoff plus minus and on /off mostly bad too, from mild to awful.
Do they ever win a playoff series with this duo? I highly doubt it. Doesn't seem like it wlll be led by them,
Yeah they got close this time. But I'd still say it is less likely they win a series than not.
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:34 pm
by eminence
Thank you much shadow! Very nice of you
