Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

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Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

18 more, brand new, not previously used this season lineups tonight as usual.

Up to 167 total.

Almost twice as many lineups used this season compared to same point of last season. Most used lineup this season has barely 40% of the minutes as last season's most used.

This is new, more extreme lineup chaos.

The outstanding quads noticed above have disappeared from leading minutes list for past week.

Thunder lineups on average have played 2.6 minutes for season. That would be 17 seconds per game, if they were actually used all the time instead of once, twice and rarely more.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Will Coach Daigneault use 1000 plus lineups this season? The current pace is well beyond that. Pretty sure no one ever has.

League average right now is 98 lineups used. So Thunder lineup use is 70% above average.

More than 96% used just twice or less. 82% only once. 60% non-positive.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Thunder starting lineups collectively are 4th worst performing in league, according to crumpledjumper.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

6th worst offensive efficiency, significantly influenced by lowest ft rate and lowest 3pt fg%. 3pta rate way down from the earlier high ranking.

(Dead last on home attendance now too.)
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

5 bigger minutes player pairs that are bad to hideous performing so far are:

Dort - JRE
Dort - Giddey
Giddey - SGA
SGA - JRE
Dort - Pokusevski



3 appearances by Dort, 2 by Giddey, SGA and JRE and one by Pokusevski.

These 5 players solely compose the 2 most used quads which were hideous and super hideous.

Some of the trios of them were hideous, some just bad. Any of them fixable?

Maybe. Of the 32 combinations of these players with & without, nearly half are positive. But only 4 have been tested at the equivalent of 3 minutes per game. The vast majority of time has gone to the other 28 smaller minute combo s.

More selective, concentrated testing? That would be my choice.

Are they seriously interested in all 32 of these combos, in a sea of hundreds of others using other players? I doubt it. Why not try to learn more about 5 or 10 of these combos (and a fraction of the rest)? How much will they really learn about LINEUPS and major building blocks of them by mid-season and end of season?
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Only 9 brand new lineups tonight. Aberration or real change in style? Totally independent or response to increased level of critique?

Starting unit sucked. That was normal.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

DARKO impact projection for Giddey is 479th of 500.

Right or wrong not totally decided yet. Thunder took him 6th. I did not have in my first round big board. Got some lols for that then and in last year.

Marking him effectively as in top of 2nd round was not totally denying potential but it was indicating some serious questions. That seem fair / real at this point.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

SGA Dort K Williams Bazley Jaylin Williams... zero seconds of use for season (at least before last night and probably after).

Giddey Mann JDub JRE Muscala... zero seconds of use for season.

176 lineups used, NO time given to these options.

Both completely avoid the 5 bigger minutes player pairs that are bad to hideous. The 2 lineups could be 80-100% of the rotation. Or say 40-60%. For at least a month. Anything is better than testing for 0% of time.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Tonight the Thunder started the 10th best guy for raw team +/- on the court, the 11th, 13th, 14th and 15th. The guy with the second most minutes off the bench was 16th / last.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Starting lineup goes -43pts / 100p in 11 minutes. Rest of lineups combined won their time. Back to 14 brand new, never before used this season lineups. 22 total lineups used, so 64% were winging it on no 5 man data.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Thunder FT rate is about 28% below league rate and 15% below the 3rd lowest.

TS% is now worst in league.

Going nowhere unless scoring efficiency changes greatly.

Jalen Williams, 4th on team for ts% but only 13th on usage. JRE, 3rd on TS%, 11th on usage. Dort, 7th on usage, 13th on TS%. Giddey 2nd on usage, 12th on TS%.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Different starting lineup every game except for the 1 repeat, twice winning non-Giddey lineup with the runaway best lineup and sub-lineup data. Tiny sample, apparently intentionally.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

DARKO projection has SGA 55th highest in league. Essentially plateaued for last 1.5 years. Bottom 20% on defense.

Despite some of the individual numbers, this level of overall performance by a #1 won't take a team anywhere. Especially with no legit #2 or #3 playing / proven.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Fwiw, Dort is tied for 13th best D-DRIP on team, with SGA. Giddey 11th.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Big win tonight. Most things worked, including Giddey - SGA - Dort. But... nor Giddey - SGA overall. Just neutral. Worse than almost all the other biggest minute pairs.

Fwiw, 10 more brand new lineups... out of 15. Many teams around 100 lineups used. Thunder just hit 200 in 12 games. Average lineup use for season is now below 3 minutes. Clown chaos. Whatever...
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